Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Note: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here, and he includes other divisions.
             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 1639 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
              THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 13 DECEMBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Indiana                BIG10   101.89  .935  .984  545  141 13  0
    2 Ohio State             BIG10    98.09  .908  .976  454  106 12  1
    3 Texas Tech             BIG12    96.65  .924  .972  552  142 12  1
    4 Georgia                SEC      92.91  .863  .960  415  207 12  1
    5 Oregon                 BIG10    92.86  .868  .960  458  178 11  1
    6 Mississippi            SEC      88.36  .839  .941  447  241 11  1
    7 Brigham Young          BIG12    87.97  .778  .940  415  247 11  2
    8 Texas A&M              SEC      87.62  .837  .938  436  263 11  1
    9 Notre Dame             IND      87.13  .844  .935  504  211 10  2
   10 Oklahoma               SEC      87.05  .767  .935  317  167 10  2
   11 Utah                   BIG12    86.44  .820  .932  493  224 10  2
   12 Alabama                SEC      86.30  .721  .931  406  226 10  3
   13 Texas                  SEC      85.92  .703  .929  355  237  9  3
   14 Vanderbilt             SEC      85.75  .806  .928  473  263 10  2
   15 Miami FL               ACC      83.19  .820  .913  409  166 10  2
   16 Southern Cal           BIG10    82.34  .730  .908  438  269  9  3
   17 Iowa                   BIG10    80.09  .680  .893  347  182  8  4
   18 Michigan               BIG10    79.62  .690  .889  331  224  9  3
   19 Missouri               SEC      78.92  .665  .884  386  233  8  4
   20 Tennessee              SEC      78.66  .664  .882  489  345  8  4
   21 Arizona                BIG12    78.18  .729  .878  391  227  9  3
   22 Washington             BIG10    77.55  .694  .873  443  243  9  4
   23 Illinois               BIG10    77.13  .635  .870  352  279  8  4
   24 LSU                    SEC      76.08  .564  .861  262  220  7  5
   25 Arizona St             BIG12    75.84  .607  .859  296  276  8  4
   26 Iowa St                BIG12    75.08  .632  .852  329  242  8  4
   27 TCU                    BIG12    75.07  .643  .852  369  302  8  4
   28 Tulane                 AMER     74.92  .760  .851  378  294 11  2
   29 South Florida          AMER     74.61  .759  .848  516  280  9  3
   30 Houston                BIG12    74.36  .692  .846  340  262  9  3
   31 North Texas            AMER     73.98  .810  .843  582  324 11  2
   32 Penn State             BIG10    73.00  .564  .833  381  257  6  6
   33 Louisville             ACC      72.90  .667  .832  362  253  8  4
   34 Georgia Tech           ACC      72.64  .688  .830  397  300  9  3
   35 James Madison          SUNBEL   72.63  .875  .830  485  206 12  1
   36 Virginia               ACC      72.59  .727  .830  418  267 10  3
   37 Pittsburgh             ACC      72.48  .656  .829  421  299  8  4
   38 SMU                    ACC      72.25  .690  .826  395  248  8  4
   39 Cincinnati             BIG12    71.78  .576  .822  381  298  7  5
   40 Auburn                 SEC      71.71  .481  .821  321  248  5  7
   41 Florida                SEC      71.10  .366  .815  259  288  4  8
   42 North Carolina St      ACC      70.98  .557  .814  362  346  7  5
   43 Navy                   AMER     70.83  .727  .812  374  312 10  2
   44 Duke                   ACC      70.49  .602  .809  442  373  8  5
   45 Kansas St              BIG12    70.07  .532  .805  353  320  6  6
   46 Nebraska               BIG10    69.84  .556  .802  351  276  7  5
   47 Mississippi St         SEC      69.82  .434  .802  366  350  5  7
   48 Kentucky               SEC      69.49  .429  .799  276  317  5  7
   49 Northwestern           BIG10    69.42  .494  .798  270  251  6  6
   50 South Carolina         SEC      69.12  .392  .795  272  265  4  8
   51 Minnesota              BIG10    68.90  .542  .792  279  281  7  5
   52 Clemson                ACC      68.51  .604  .788  344  245  7  5
   53 Wisconsin              BIG10    68.06  .339  .784  154  259  4  8
   54 Wake Forest            ACC      67.79  .629  .781  322  258  8  4
   55 East Carolina          AMER     67.33  .667  .776  402  244  8  4
   56 Baylor                 BIG12    67.06  .430  .773  373  391  5  7
   57 Kansas                 BIG12    66.97  .453  .772  337  321  5  7
   58 Florida St             ACC      66.21  .481  .763  396  264  5  7
   59 Memphis                AMER     66.04  .671  .761  415  270  8  4
   60 Boise St               MTNWES   65.45  .620  .755  418  337  9  5
   61 Rutgers                BIG10    65.04  .425  .750  344  382  5  7
   62 New Mexico             MTNWES   64.22  .684  .741  335  270  9  3
   63 West Virginia          BIG12    63.90  .352  .737  261  370  4  8
   64 Arkansas               SEC      63.74  .293  .735  395  406  2 10
   65 San Diego St           MTNWES   63.65  .726  .734  296  151  9  3
   66 Old Dominion           SUNBEL   63.64  .724  .734  392  231  9  3
   67 UNLV                   MTNWES   63.29  .704  .730  467  375 10  3
   68 Washington St          IND      63.28  .538  .730  259  242  6  6
   69 California             ACC      62.91  .531  .725  298  318  7  5
   70 UCLA                   BIG10    62.82  .266  .724  218  401  3  9
   71 Central Florida        BIG12    62.33  .436  .719  292  283  5  7
   72 Colorado               BIG12    62.29  .297  .718  251  366  3  9
   73 Michigan St            BIG10    62.00  .362  .715  295  359  4  8
   74 North Dakota St        MOVAL    61.83  .907  .713  534  169 12  1
   75 Texas-San Antonio      AMER     61.45  .521  .708  405  355  6  6
   76 Montana St             PIONEE   61.09  .826  .704  523  247 12  2
   77 Kennesaw St            CUSA     60.77  .703  .700  368  316 10  3
   78 Army                   AMER     60.42  .504  .696  269  265  6  6
   79 Hawai`i                MTNWES   60.40  .647  .695  342  282  8  4
   80 Maryland               BIG10    60.16  .389  .693  282  318  4  8
   81 Stanford               ACC      59.86  .334  .689  226  350  4  8
   82 Connecticut            IND      59.54  .712  .685  443  310  9  3
   83 Western Michigan       MIDAME   59.25  .647  .681  307  237  9  4
   84 Virginia Tech          ACC      58.87  .270  .677  257  362  3  9
   85 Toledo                 MIDAME   58.64  .704  .674  379  146  8  4
   86 Montana                PIONEE   58.45  .873  .671  592  333 13  1
   87 Utah St                MTNWES   58.35  .515  .670  381  339  6  6
   88 Fresno St              MTNWES   58.09  .627  .667  317  241  8  4
   89 Purdue                 BIG10    57.57  .224  .661  225  382  2 10
   90 Temple                 AMER     57.06  .429  .654  334  356  5  7
   91 North Carolina         ACC      56.65  .369  .649  231  294  4  8
   92 Ohio U.                MIDAME   56.46  .646  .647  344  275  8  4
   93 Troy                   SUNBEL   55.81  .571  .638  316  318  8  5
   94 Western Kentucky       CUSA     55.51  .636  .635  357  281  8  4
   95 Louisiana Tech         CUSA     55.20  .593  .631  332  256  7  5
   96 Syracuse               ACC      55.01  .257  .628  242  419  3  9
   97 Texas St-San Marcos    SUNBEL   54.68  .547  .624  433  367  6  6
   98 Tarleton St            UNITED   54.57  .834  .623  594  260 12  2
   99 Miami OH               MIDAME   54.22  .548  .618  326  286  7  6
  100 Florida Int'l          CUSA     53.73  .561  .612  351  333  7  5
  101 Southern Miss          SUNBEL   53.69  .567  .612  358  329  7  5
  102 Rice                   AMER     53.56  .387  .610  238  387  5  7
  103 Missouri St            CUSA     53.42  .537  .608  305  340  7  5
  104 Florida Atlantic       AMER     53.11  .360  .604  354  436  4  8
  105 Jacksonville St        CUSA     53.09  .580  .604  377  340  8  5
  106 Coastal Carolina       SUNBEL   52.92  .475  .602  274  407  6  6
  107 Boston College         ACC      52.61  .246  .598  305  393  2 10
  108 Georgia Southern       SUNBEL   52.26  .465  .593  334  410  6  6
  109 Arkansas St            SUNBEL   51.98  .482  .590  293  328  6  6
  110 Air Force              MTNWES   51.80  .391  .587  358  364  4  8
  111 Louisiana-Lafayette    SUNBEL   51.30  .481  .581  325  360  6  6
  112 Illinois St            MOVAL    51.23  .677  .580  459  388 11  4
  113 Marshall               SUNBEL   51.07  .465  .578  369  363  5  7
  114 Central Michigan       MIDAME   50.77  .576  .574  286  272  7  5
  115 Alabama-Birmingham     AMER     50.35  .315  .568  317  459  4  8
  116 Stephen F. Austin      STHLND   50.17  .758  .566  496  261 11  3
  117 North Dakota           MOVAL    49.92  .631  .563  461  278  8  6
  118 Tulsa                  AMER     49.85  .359  .562  278  347  4  8
  119 Delaware               CUSA     49.42  .483  .556  357  390  6  6
  120 Lehigh                 OVC      49.36  .881  .556  413  181 12  1
  121 Villanova              COASTA   49.14  .779  .553  429  284 12  2
  122 UC-Davis               PIONEE   48.26  .655  .541  421  392  9  4
  123 South Dakota St        MOVAL    47.78  .618  .535  400  307  9  5
  124 Appalachian St         SUNBEL   47.77  .437  .535  304  358  5  7
  125 Wyoming                MTNWES   47.64  .363  .533  192  246  4  8
  126 South Alabama          SUNBEL   47.13  .375  .527  318  365  4  8
  127 South Dakota           MOVAL    46.90  .609  .524  407  395 10  5
  128 Nevada                 MTNWES   46.83  .287  .523  211  330  3  9
  129 Oklahoma St            BIG12    46.82  .148  .523  170  400  1 11
  130 San Jose St            MTNWES   46.58  .288  .520  257  390  3  9
  131 Abilene Christian      UNITED   46.45  .614  .518  414  370  9  5
  132 Liberty                CUSA     46.01  .389  .512  307  318  4  8
  133 Yale                   IVY      45.46  .717  .505  352  235  9  3
  134 Colorado St            MTNWES   45.40  .213  .504  222  370  2 10
  135 Youngstown St          MOVAL    44.60  .598  .494  476  403  8  5
  136 Southern Illinois      MOVAL    44.55  .606  .493  437  320  7  5
  137 Buffalo                MIDAME   43.91  .440  .485  288  282  5  7
  138 Harvard                IVY      43.85  .786  .484  401  233  9  2
  139 Idaho St               PIONEE   43.77  .505  .483  396  327  6  6
  140 Oregon St              IND      43.72  .222  .483  218  353  2 10
  141 New Mexico St          CUSA     43.35  .366  .478  259  331  4  8
  142 Tennessee Tech         BIGSKY   42.97  .799  .473  488  243 11  2
  143 Eastern Michigan       MIDAME   42.88  .359  .472  289  357  4  8
  144 Ball St                MIDAME   42.69  .314  .469  190  358  4  8
  145 Akron                  MIDAME   42.41  .427  .466  267  329  5  7
  146 SE Louisiana           STHLND   42.33  .681  .465  403  234  9  4
  147 Middle Tennessee St    CUSA     42.24  .293  .463  269  371  3  9
  148 Southern Utah          UNITED   41.71  .586  .457  405  355  7  5
  149 Louisiana-Monroe       SUNBEL   41.71  .269  .457  199  383  3  9
  150 Kent St                MIDAME   41.41  .397  .453  255  403  5  7
  151 Bowling Green          MIDAME   41.40  .372  .453  246  291  4  8
  152 Sacramento St          PIONEE   40.63  .597  .443  405  315  7  5
  153 Northern Arizona       PIONEE   40.61  .546  .442  380  375  7  5
  154 West Georgia           UNITED   40.39  .660  .440  281  233  8  3
  155 Austin Peay            UNITED   40.28  .588  .438  421  328  7  5
  156 Northern Illinois      MIDAME   38.95  .297  .421  205  292  3  9
  157 Lamar                  STHLND   38.86  .571  .420  292  299  8  5
  158 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND   38.50  .736  .415  475  226  9  3
  159 UTEP                   CUSA     38.04  .248  .410  280  365  2 10
  160 Rhode Island           COASTA   37.97  .741  .409  438  296 11  3
  161 Sam Houston St         CUSA     36.95  .179  .396  213  454  2 10
  162 UNC-Charlotte          AMER     36.56  .101  .391  172  436  1 11
  163 Dartmouth              IVY      36.44  .637  .389  264  213  7  3
  164 Cal Poly SLO           PIONEE   35.47  .370  .377  330  378  4  8
  165 Mercer                 STHRN    35.19  .704  .373  434  306  9  3
  166 Georgia St             SUNBEL   35.14  .141  .373  237  454  1 11
  167 Pennsylvania           IVY      34.75  .568  .368  271  265  6  4
  168 New Hampshire          COASTA   34.47  .594  .364  323  297  8  5
  169 Eastern Kentucky       UNITED   34.28  .424  .362  232  292  5  7
  170 Monmouth NJ            COASTA   33.79  .729  .356  480  333  9  3
  171 Weber St               PIONEE   33.72  .325  .355  277  460  4  8
  172 Idaho                  PIONEE   33.67  .384  .354  302  317  4  8
  173 Incarnate Word         STHLND   33.54  .447  .353  308  306  5  7
  174 Eastern Washington     PIONEE   33.33  .424  .350  281  362  5  7
  175 Lafayette              OVC      33.20  .633  .348  403  345  8  4
  176 Alabama St             SWAC     31.90  .825  .332  509  257 10  2
  177 South Carolina St      MEAC     31.18  .694  .323  421  354 10  3
  178 Tennessee-Martin       BIGSKY   30.92  .474  .320  248  287  6  6
  179 Gardner-Webb           BIGSKY   30.82  .546  .319  330  357  7  5
  180 Brown                  IVY      30.48  .484  .315  265  270  5  5
  181 Northern Iowa          MOVAL    30.28  .287  .312  207  321  3  9
  182 San Diego              PATR     30.24  .634  .312  341  292  8  4
  183 Nicholls St            STHLND   30.23  .353  .312  219  299  4  8
  184 Northern Colorado      PIONEE   30.01  .363  .309  243  341  4  8
  185 Indiana St             MOVAL    29.71  .265  .305  254  475  3  9
  186 Drake                  PATR     29.16  .627  .299  304  212  8  4
  187 McNeese St             STHLND   29.01  .426  .297  282  306  5  7
  188 Lindenwood             BIGSKY   28.99  .493  .297  297  324  6  6
  189 Central Arkansas       UNITED   28.72  .307  .293  294  422  3  9
  190 Princeton              IVY      28.45  .362  .290  208  244  3  7
  191 Sacred Heart           DII      28.01  .599  .285  343  315  8  4
  192 East Tennessee St      STHRN    27.96  .589  .284  390  346  7  5
  193 Prairie View A&M       SWAC     27.38  .687  .277  442  250 10  4
  194 William & Mary         COASTA   27.28  .566  .276  354  308  7  5
  195 Central Conn St        NEC      27.16  .606  .275  347  298  8  5
  196 Presbyterian           PATR     27.13  .784  .274  413  194 10  2
  197 Stony Brook            COASTA   26.48  .524  .267  336  309  6  6
  198 Jackson St             SWAC     26.46  .743  .266  394  225  9  3
  199 Richmond               OVC      26.43  .543  .266  263  272  7  5
  200 Colgate                OVC      26.40  .439  .266  340  372  5  7
  201 St Thomas MN           PATR     26.18  .609  .263  371  246  7  5
  202 Charleston Southern    BIGSKY   25.98  .399  .261  199  288  5  7
  203 Cornell NY             IVY      25.74  .398  .258  210  260  4  6
  204 Maine                  COASTA   25.71  .510  .258  290  291  6  6
  205 Western Carolina       STHRN    25.64  .571  .257  463  402  7  5
  206 Duquesne               NEC      25.11  .565  .251  341  303  7  5
  207 Holy Cross             OVC      24.71  .336  .246  246  297  3  9
  208 Utah Tech              UNITED   24.68  .200  .246  192  352  2 10
  209 Elon                   COASTA   24.57  .510  .245  345  297  6  6
  210 Wofford                STHRN    24.43  .550  .243  274  207  6  6
  211 SE Missouri St         BIGSKY   24.28  .350  .241  278  361  4  8
  212 LIU                    NEC      24.06  .504  .239  197  226  6  6
  213 North Carolina Central MEAC     23.67  .653  .234  405  308  8  4
  214 North Alabama          UNITED   23.47  .246  .232  303  470  2 10
  215 Columbia               IVY      23.43  .244  .232  156  279  2  8
  216 Delaware St            MEAC     23.43  .637  .232  387  297  8  4
  217 Portland St            PIONEE   21.91  .107  .215  194  512  1 11
  218 Towson                 COASTA   21.90  .492  .215  321  301  6  6
  219 Western Illinois       BIGSKY   21.67  .343  .212  277  417  4  8
  220 Georgetown DC          OVC      21.40  .478  .210  253  320  6  6
  221 Murray St              MOVAL    21.37  .112  .209  228  463  1 11
  222 Mercyhurst             NEC      21.27  .415  .208  225  297  5  7
  223 Furman                 STHRN    21.21  .469  .207  293  372  6  6
  224 East Texas A&M         STHLND   21.14  .280  .207  307  478  3  9
  225 Eastern Illinois       BIGSKY   20.28  .288  .198  210  350  3  9
  226 Dayton                 PATR     20.02  .637  .195  306  191  7  4
  227 Chattanooga            STHRN    19.57  .406  .190  339  396  5  7
  228 Bucknell               OVC      18.61  .400  .181  313  409  5  7
  229 Butler                 PATR     18.38  .483  .178  274  304  6  6
  230 Stonehill              NEC      18.24  .354  .177  181  277  4  8
  231 Merrimack              DII      18.11  .369  .176  246  293  4  8
  232 The Citadel            STHRN    17.63  .386  .171  246  322  4  8
  233 Marist                 PATR     17.30  .456  .168  272  282  5  7
  234 Wagner                 NEC      16.32  .398  .158  197  294  5  7
  235 Texas Southern         SWAC     16.25  .517  .158  284  257  6  5
  236 Bethune-Cookman        SWAC     15.84  .482  .154  356  392  6  6
  237 Grambling St           SWAC     15.62  .543  .152  289  313  7  5
  238 Albany NY              COASTA   14.20  .201  .139  201  387  2 10
  239 Houston Christian      STHLND   13.57  .203  .134  202  363  2 10
  240 Bryant                 COASTA   12.92  .286  .129  270  364  3  9
  241 New Haven              NEC      12.32  .470  .124  279  286  5  5
  242 Campbell               COASTA   12.20  .249  .123  296  430  2 10
  243 Howard                 MEAC     11.99  .419  .121  238  295  5  7
  244 Fordham                OVC      11.71  .138  .119  191  397  1 11
  245 Morehead St            PATR     11.63  .452  .118  254  358  6  6
  246 Alcorn St              SWAC     11.37  .480  .116  291  278  5  7
  247 Tennessee St           BIGSKY   11.08  .223  .114  155  319  2 10
  248 Robert Morris          NEC      11.05  .296  .114  182  299  3  9
  249 Northwestern St        STHLND   10.51  .126  .110  126  499  1 11
  250 Massachusetts          MIDAME    9.68  .044  .104  133  463  0 12
  251 Morgan St              MEAC      9.45  .392  .102  280  319  4  8
  252 Alabama A&M            SWAC      9.32  .355  .101  281  401  4  8
  253 Florida A&M            SWAC      8.81  .400  .097  291  406  5  7
  254 North Carolina A&T     COASTA    8.28  .195  .094  246  523  2 10
  255 Arkansas-Pine Bluff    SWAC      6.68  .294  .083  209  390  3  8
  256 Samford                STHRN     3.18  .099  .063  175  455  1 11
  257 Davidson               PATR      2.93  .192  .062  218  475  2 10
  258 St Francis PA          NEC       2.46  .094  .060  115  319  0 11
  259 Southern U.            SWAC      2.32  .180  .059  223  433  2 10
  260 Mississippi Valley St  SWAC      0.97  .201  .053  220  464  2 10
  261 Hampton                COASTA    0.30  .182  .050  215  440  2 10
  262 VMI                    STHRN    -0.04  .143  .048  191  451  1 11
  263 Stetson                PATR     -0.26  .253  .047  226  469  3  9
  264 Norfolk St             MEAC     -1.05  .163  .044  251  427  1 11
  265 Valparaiso             PATR     -1.38  .204  .043  244  427  2 10
  266 Non-Division I         DII     -10.09  .061  .018  678 2771  2 60
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Alabama           SEC      17 Florida St        ACC      31 0.128
   2 Indiana St        MOVAL    24 South Dakota St   MOVAL    12 0.170
   3 Presbyterian      PATR     13 Davidson          PATR     14 0.175
   4 Villanova         COASTAL  33 Monmouth NJ       COASTAL  51 0.182
   5 Albany NY         COASTAL  31 Monmouth NJ       COASTAL  24 0.186
   6 Abilene Christian UNITED    7 Incarnate Word    STHLND   38 0.188
   7 Texas Tech        BIG12    22 Arizona St        BIG12    26 0.197
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings