Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
- the original text file
- rankings of all FBS teams, and within their conferences
- rankings of all FCS teams, and within their conferences
- a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Note 1: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here for now, and he includes other divisions.
Note 2: All teams start from scratch - there is no preseason "prior" applied to any team. So these ratings are not meaningful until teams have played 6-7 games, so if you're here early, be VERY warned!
|
Sunday, 11 October commentary: In the Rothman system at this point the teams are still not quite well-connected enough -- so you see teams with losses to really good teams with getting "pulled upward" because of it. Examples: Alabama's close lose to Georgia, and MSU's close loss to them, clustering those schools; getting in the way of undefeated teams like Indiana who have a couple of close wins. Give it another week or two. |
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
BASED ON 812 GAMES BETWEEN 267 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 10 OCTOBER 2026
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Team W L Rating PCT. RRE Conf.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Georgia 6 0 145.46 .956 .998 SEC
2 Alabama 5 1 136.99 .848 .995 SEC
3 Mississippi St 4 1 119.55 .737 .983 SEC
4 Miami FL 5 0 115.30 .978 .977 ACC
5 Kentucky 5 1 111.21 .733 .969 SEC
6 Indiana 6 0 109.45 .935 .966 B10
7 Missouri 5 1 109.32 .820 .965 SEC
8 Notre Dame 6 0 108.79 .969 .964 FBSIND
9 South Carolina 3 3 107.53 .557 .961 SEC
10 Texas Tech 5 0 100.55 .921 .940 B12
11 UCLA 5 0 99.49 .923 .937 B10
12 LSU 4 2 99.02 .724 .935 SEC
13 Florida 4 2 99.00 .643 .935 SEC
14 Northwestern 4 1 98.76 .809 .934 B10
15 Utah 5 0 97.39 .969 .929 B12
16 Nebraska 5 1 96.18 .849 .924 B10
17 Mississippi 4 1 95.92 .733 .923 SEC
18 Texas 4 1 95.87 .748 .922 SEC
19 Ohio State 5 1 94.85 .856 .918 B10
20 Brigham Young 5 0 94.42 .923 .916 B12
21 Wake Forest 5 1 94.36 .767 .916 ACC
22 Tennessee 5 1 92.32 .815 .906 SEC
23 Houston 5 1 92.00 .816 .905 B12
24 Oklahoma 3 2 89.00 .565 .890 SEC
25 Texas A&M 3 3 88.74 .522 .888 SEC
26 Purdue 3 3 87.37 .519 .881 B10
27 Auburn 3 2 86.96 .577 .878 SEC
28 Clemson 3 2 86.65 .547 .876 ACC
29 Baylor 4 1 86.17 .811 .874 B12
30 Wisconsin 4 1 86.11 .758 .873 B10
31 Oregon 3 2 86.01 .626 .873 B10
32 Iowa 5 1 85.94 .759 .872 B10
33 Arizona 5 1 83.68 .816 .858 B12
34 Boise St 5 1 82.29 .800 .849 PAC12
35 North Carolina 3 2 82.20 .573 .849 ACC
36 Oregon St 4 2 81.60 .691 .845 PAC12
37 Michigan 3 2 81.29 .601 .843 B10
38 Oklahoma St 4 1 80.77 .761 .839 B12
39 Minnesota 4 2 80.74 .610 .839 B10
40 South Dakota St 5 1 79.15 .808 .828 MOVAL
41 Southern Cal 6 1 78.87 .784 .826 B10
42 Pittsburgh 5 1 78.01 .786 .819 ACC
43 New Mexico 4 1 77.49 .820 .816 MWC
44 Iowa St 3 3 77.06 .523 .812 B12
45 Louisville 3 3 76.32 .579 .807 ACC
46 Duke 4 1 75.43 .784 .800 ACC
47 James Madison 6 0 74.97 .920 .796 SUN
48 Texas-San Antonio 5 1 74.50 .731 .792 AMER
49 Arkansas 2 4 74.22 .353 .790 SEC
50 Colorado 2 3 73.82 .382 .786 B12
51 Memphis 5 1 73.77 .798 .786 AMER
52 Vanderbilt 3 3 73.74 .472 .786 SEC
53 Central Florida 3 3 72.98 .526 .779 B12
54 Penn State 3 3 72.10 .551 .772 B10
55 Illinois 3 3 71.93 .514 .770 B10
56 Cincinnati 4 1 70.48 .721 .758 B12
57 Louisiana Tech 3 2 70.25 .523 .756 SUN
58 Florida Atlantic 4 1 69.30 .737 .747 AMER
59 North Texas 4 2 69.20 .640 .746 AMER
60 Arizona St 3 2 69.03 .564 .744 B12
61 Youngstown St 5 2 68.85 .714 .743 MOVAL
62 Georgia Tech 2 3 68.76 .441 .742 ACC
63 UNLV 4 2 68.37 .630 .738 MWC
64 Michigan St 2 4 68.33 .371 .738 B10
65 North Dakota St 5 1 68.01 .820 .735 MWC
66 TCU 2 3 67.95 .488 .734 B12
67 Stanford 2 4 67.85 .293 .734 ACC
68 SMU 4 1 67.78 .733 .733 ACC
69 West Virginia 3 3 67.65 .507 .732 B12
70 Western Michigan 4 2 67.31 .647 .728 MAC
71 California 3 3 67.00 .478 .725 ACC
72 Florida St 3 3 66.70 .537 .723 ACC
73 Fresno St 4 2 66.00 .662 .716 PAC12
74 Kansas St 3 2 65.79 .620 .714 B12
75 Virginia Tech 4 2 65.65 .682 .712 ACC
76 North Carolina St 3 3 65.51 .486 .711 ACC
77 Texas St-San Marcos 2 3 65.39 .464 .710 PAC12
78 Virginia 4 2 64.93 .648 .705 ACC
79 Washington 3 3 64.85 .524 .705 B10
80 Liberty 5 1 64.23 .796 .698 CUSA
81 Louisiana-Lafayette 4 2 63.49 .649 .691 SUN
82 Ohio U. 4 2 63.08 .616 .687 MAC
83 Colorado St 2 3 62.71 .420 .683 PAC12
84 Kansas 2 3 62.47 .452 .681 B12
85 Georgia St 4 1 62.40 .790 .680 SUN
86 South Florida 4 2 62.36 .649 .680 AMER
87 Tulsa 3 3 61.67 .524 .673 AMER
88 Tarleton St 6 0 61.06 .905 .666 UAC
89 South Alabama 4 2 60.70 .635 .663 SUN
90 Army 3 2 60.61 .603 .662 AMER
91 Maryland 2 4 60.58 .356 .661 B10
92 Air Force 4 1 58.60 .747 .641 MWC
93 Central Michigan 3 3 58.29 .460 .637 MAC
94 San Diego St 2 4 58.03 .322 .635 PAC12
95 Harvard 4 0 57.90 .871 .633 IVY
96 Toledo 4 2 57.70 .643 .631 MAC
97 Florida Int'l 3 2 57.47 .618 .629 CUSA
98 Syracuse 2 3 57.27 .451 .626 ACC
99 South Dakota 5 2 56.95 .707 .623 MOVAL
100 Georgia Southern 2 4 56.56 .397 .619 SUN
101 Jacksonville St 4 2 56.44 .616 .618 CUSA
102 Tulane 2 3 56.11 .398 .614 AMER
103 Campbell 5 1 56.11 .765 .614 COAS
104 Stephen F. Austin 6 0 54.55 .931 .597 STHLD
105 Navy 2 3 54.52 .470 .597 AMER
106 Miami OH 3 3 53.89 .490 .590 MAC
107 Bowling Green 2 4 53.85 .347 .589 MAC
108 Alabama-Birmingham 3 3 53.39 .470 .584 AMER
109 East Carolina 3 2 53.14 .587 .582 AMER
110 Buffalo 3 3 52.83 .471 .578 MAC
111 Kent St 2 4 52.57 .349 .575 MAC
112 Delaware 2 3 51.94 .410 .568 CUSA
113 Temple 2 4 51.81 .390 .567 AMER
114 Connecticut 3 3 51.47 .562 .563 FBSIND
115 Austin Peay 5 2 51.29 .721 .561 UAC
116 San Jose St 3 3 51.26 .477 .561 MWC
117 Wyoming 3 3 50.66 .455 .554 MWC
118 Colgate 4 2 50.32 .673 .550 PATR
119 Lehigh 6 0 50.32 .942 .550 PATR
120 Arkansas St 2 4 50.01 .371 .547 SUN
121 Northern Arizona 5 2 49.70 .630 .543 SKY
122 Eastern Michigan 4 3 49.55 .544 .541 MAC
123 Rice 1 5 49.52 .249 .541 AMER
124 Lamar 5 1 49.18 .744 .537 STHLD
125 Utah St 2 4 48.29 .338 .527 PAC12
126 Montana St 5 1 48.22 .813 .526 SKY
127 Montana 5 2 47.75 .708 .521 SKY
128 Old Dominion 2 4 47.61 .346 .519 SUN
129 East Tennessee St 5 2 47.36 .684 .516 SOCON
130 Boston College 2 3 47.35 .402 .516 ACC
131 Troy 3 2 47.34 .584 .516 SUN
132 Appalachian St 3 2 47.23 .576 .515 SUN
133 Coastal Carolina 2 4 46.99 .388 .512 SUN
134 Northern Iowa 3 2 44.89 .562 .488 MOVAL
135 Massachusetts 4 2 44.65 .689 .485 MAC
136 Cornell NY 2 2 44.27 .515 .481 IVY
137 North Dakota 5 2 44.11 .704 .479 MOVAL
138 Hawai`i 1 5 43.50 .228 .472 MWC
139 Illinois St 4 2 43.17 .666 .468 MOVAL
140 Kennesaw St 1 4 42.95 .305 .466 CUSA
141 Sam Houston St 1 4 42.95 .277 .466 CUSA
142 Akron 1 5 42.48 .216 .460 MAC
143 Washington St 1 5 42.23 .247 .457 PAC12
144 UC-Davis 4 2 41.99 .623 .454 SKY
145 Idaho St 4 2 41.75 .680 .451 SKY
146 Mercer 5 2 41.35 .680 .447 SOCON
147 Marshall 3 3 41.24 .427 .446 SUN
148 Incarnate Word 2 4 41.12 .398 .444 STHLD
149 Ball St 1 5 41.04 .191 .443 MAC
150 Tennessee Tech 5 1 40.81 .757 .440 SOCON
151 Western Carolina 3 4 40.66 .471 .439 SOCON
152 Yale 3 1 40.49 .719 .437 IVY
153 Middle Tennessee St 2 3 40.46 .432 .436 CUSA
154 Abilene Christian 3 4 38.90 .412 .418 UAC
155 Nevada 2 3 38.74 .475 .416 MWC
156 New Mexico St 2 4 38.38 .367 .412 CUSA
157 Princeton 3 1 38.19 .758 .410 IVY
158 West Florida 3 2 37.94 .524 .407 UAC
159 Southern Illinois 3 4 37.59 .438 .403 MOVAL
160 Morgan St 5 1 36.78 .729 .393 MEAC
161 Rutgers 1 4 36.68 .274 .392 B10
162 Eastern Washington 2 5 36.34 .324 .388 SKY
163 Houston Christian 3 3 36.29 .488 .387 STHLD
164 Bryant 4 2 35.65 .603 .380 COAS
165 Brown 2 2 35.21 .544 .374 IVY
166 Southern Miss 1 4 34.18 .253 .362 SUN
167 SE Missouri St 3 3 33.92 .487 .359 OVC
168 Cal Poly SLO 4 3 33.39 .527 .353 SKY
169 Weber St 4 3 33.17 .557 .350 SKY
170 Monmouth NJ 4 2 33.06 .551 .349 COAS
171 Indiana St 2 5 33.00 .319 .348 MOVAL
172 Central Conn St 2 3 32.92 .433 .347 NEC
173 Portland St 2 4 32.65 .319 .344 SKY
174 Northern Illinois 0 5 32.65 .058 .344 MWC
175 Texas-Rio Grande Valley 3 3 32.48 .542 .342 STHLD
176 McNeese St 2 4 32.46 .360 .342 STHLD
177 Wofford 4 3 31.99 .545 .336 SOCON
178 Idaho 1 5 31.86 .241 .335 SKY
179 Chattanooga 4 3 31.40 .594 .330 SOCON
180 Albany NY 3 3 31.10 .538 .326 COAS
181 Stony Brook 4 2 30.92 .626 .324 COAS
182 Holy Cross 2 4 30.91 .335 .324 PATR
183 Fordham 2 5 30.64 .288 .321 PATR
184 Eastern Illinois 2 4 30.60 .335 .320 OVC
185 SE Louisiana 3 3 30.38 .485 .318 STHLD
186 North Alabama 4 2 30.22 .615 .316 UAC
187 Robert Morris 3 3 30.18 .525 .315 NEC
188 East Texas A&M 2 4 29.99 .353 .313 STHLD
189 Richmond 5 2 29.97 .636 .313 PATR
190 Western Kentucky 2 4 29.66 .335 .309 CUSA
191 Southern Utah 2 4 29.54 .384 .308 SKY
192 Dartmouth 1 3 28.83 .310 .300 IVY
193 Nicholls St 2 4 28.67 .313 .298 STHLD
194 Rhode Island 3 3 28.43 .494 .295 COAS
195 Gardner-Webb 2 5 28.19 .363 .292 OVC
196 Missouri St 1 4 27.61 .262 .286 CUSA
197 Columbia 3 1 27.37 .641 .283 IVY
198 Butler 5 1 27.08 .770 .280 PION
199 Sacramento St 1 5 26.80 .196 .276 MAC
200 Louisiana-Monroe 0 5 26.48 .089 .273 SUN
201 Pennsylvania 2 2 25.42 .500 .261 IVY
202 Furman 2 5 25.32 .360 .260 SOCON
203 Northern Colorado 2 5 24.55 .345 .251 SKY
204 UTEP 1 5 24.09 .180 .246 MWC
205 Charleston Southern 3 3 23.98 .526 .245 OVC
206 Norfolk St 4 3 23.54 .599 .240 MEAC
207 William & Mary 3 4 23.49 .358 .240 PATR
208 North Carolina A&T 2 5 23.22 .301 .237 COAS
209 Central Arkansas 2 4 23.19 .358 .237 UAC
210 St Thomas MN 5 2 22.81 .659 .232 PION
211 Eastern Kentucky 2 4 22.52 .356 .229 UAC
212 Delaware St 4 3 22.37 .539 .228 MEAC
213 South Carolina St 5 2 21.84 .707 .222 MEAC
214 Stonehill 2 4 21.60 .360 .220 NEC
215 Villanova 2 4 21.23 .356 .216 PATR
216 Western Illinois 3 3 20.72 .514 .211 OVC
217 Howard 2 4 20.65 .352 .210 MEAC
218 Lindenwood 1 4 20.61 .224 .209 OVC
219 Jackson St 5 1 20.01 .778 .203 SWAC
220 The Citadel 2 4 19.98 .309 .203 SOCON
221 Merrimack 2 4 19.66 .305 .200 FCSIND
222 Alabama A&M 5 2 19.42 .745 .197 SWAC
223 New Hampshire 2 5 19.34 .308 .196 COAS
224 Grambling St 4 2 18.62 .629 .189 SWAC
225 San Diego 2 4 18.19 .305 .185 PION
226 Georgetown DC 1 4 18.02 .262 .184 PATR
227 Lafayette 1 4 17.91 .247 .182 PATR
228 Murray St 1 5 17.81 .167 .182 MOVAL
229 Elon 4 3 17.70 .573 .180 COAS
230 Tennessee-Martin 2 4 17.06 .345 .174 OVC
231 Sacred Heart 2 4 16.70 .354 .171 FCSIND
232 UNC-Charlotte 0 6 16.62 .072 .170 AMER
233 Samford 1 5 16.30 .235 .167 SOCON
234 Presbyterian 3 3 15.58 .472 .161 PION
235 LIU 2 5 15.10 .273 .156 NEC
236 Dayton 4 1 14.52 .772 .151 PION
237 Alcorn St 4 3 14.35 .545 .150 SWAC
238 Marist 3 3 13.93 .550 .146 PION
239 New Haven 1 5 13.30 .190 .141 NEC
240 West Georgia 1 5 13.24 .222 .140 UAC
241 Bethune-Cookman 3 3 13.21 .489 .140 SWAC
242 Valparaiso 3 3 13.06 .531 .139 PION
243 North Carolina Central 2 5 13.01 .330 .138 MEAC
244 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 3 2 13.01 .602 .138 SWAC
245 Wagner 1 5 10.70 .183 .120 NEC
246 Alabama St 3 3 10.40 .557 .118 SWAC
247 Utah Tech 0 7 9.59 .044 .112 SKY
248 Towson 0 7 9.54 .123 .111 COAS
249 Prairie View A&M 2 5 9.02 .320 .108 SWAC
250 Maine 1 5 8.83 .207 .106 COAS
251 Duquesne 1 4 8.56 .243 .105 NEC
252 Tennessee St 1 5 6.88 .210 .093 OVC
253 Mercyhurst 1 5 6.74 .201 .093 NEC
254 Hampton 1 5 6.49 .192 .091 COAS
255 Southern U. 3 4 6.36 .426 .090 SWAC
256 Florida A&M 2 4 5.96 .330 .088 SWAC
257 Bucknell 1 5 5.85 .234 .087 PATR
258 Drake 2 4 4.58 .362 .080 PION
259 Texas Southern 1 5 2.23 .218 .067 SWAC
260 Mississippi Valley St 3 4 1.03 .367 .061 SWAC
261 Stetson 1 5 -0.32 .184 .055 PION
262 Morehead St 1 5 -7.22 .207 .032 PION
263 Chicago St 1 5 -7.63 .187 .031 NEC
264 Non-Division I 6 58 -8.28 .110 .029 NON-D1
265 Davidson 2 5 -8.93 .284 .027 PION
266 VMI 0 6 -17.62 .055 .012 SOCON
267 Northwestern St 0 6 -17.95 .041 .011 STHLD
Explanations:
These rankings use the method developed by David Rothman (1935-2004),
founder of the Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and
Tournaments (FACT). David's work was a part of college football's
Bowl Championship Series for multiple years. His formula considers
only margin of victory for in-season games (past data, date of game,
and location are ignored).
David's original code was written in BASIC in the 1970s -- the copy
that I have is from November 1990 -- and I have rewritten it in
Python to match the original numbers exactly. The only differences
should be in the formatting of the output.
Columns:
Rating: measures a team's strength by balancing their results against
opponent quality. Ratings are iteratively adjusted until the system
reaches a best fit across the entire season. Includes game scores,
but transformed with a logistic function to give diminishing returns
for blowouts or for running up the score.
Pct: the normalized margin-of-victory for a team's games. Effectively
how well did you perform in games, not counting quality of opponent.
Again, though, Rothman's formula is set up so that blowouts do not add
additional information.
RRE: a team's expected win percentage if we were able to play a full
round-robin schedule among all the teams listed. It's functionally
the same as the Rating, just expressed in a different way.
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT Rankings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF SEASON 1 Oklahoma St B12 10 Tulsa AMER 24 0.14 2 Furman SOCON 20 Mercer SOCON 13 0.26 3 St Thomas MN PION 21 Presbyterian PION 55 0.31 4 North Carolina Central MEAC 30 Texas Southern SWAC 42 0.33 5 San Diego PION 38 Cal Poly SLO SKY 35 0.33 6 Montana St SKY 34 Idaho SKY 35 0.33 |
More Details
I've preserved David's original BASIC source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, or 49-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
But on this site...
...I use a version of his code that I developed in Python. Why? So that I can run it in my modern workflow. The numbers reproduce exactly (I've checked in multiple sports), even with over 15,000 games, so I hope that David wouldn't take offense to modernizing the hardware. But I have made sure that I absolutely preserve his math.
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