Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Sunday, 5 October: the first rankings of this season are here! This is likely a week or two too early -- 5 games per team is not much data -- but they look "reasonably good" already I think. Enjoy!
             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON  728 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
                THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 4 OCTOBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Miami FL               ACC     110.92  .915  .982  175   68  5  0
    2 Indiana                BIG10   110.57  .947  .982  239   48  5  0
    3 Texas Tech             BIG12   109.42  .987  .980  243   56  5  0
    4 Oklahoma               SEC     109.22  .946  .979  169   36  5  0
    5 Texas A&M              SEC     107.06  .897  .975  174  105  5  0
    6 Notre Dame             IND      99.98  .676  .955  204  118  3  2
    7 Mississippi            SEC      99.34  .900  .952  203   94  5  0
    8 Illinois               BIG10    98.07  .782  .948  222  144  5  1
    9 Missouri               SEC      97.01  .952  .944  226   73  5  0
   10 Alabama                SEC      96.34  .757  .941  182   80  4  1
   11 Ohio State             BIG10    95.67  .956  .938  187   25  5  0
   12 Michigan               BIG10    95.05  .753  .936  164   81  4  1
   13 Florida St             ACC      93.97  .644  .931  234  104  3  2
   14 Georgia                SEC      92.99  .785  .927  173   92  4  1
   15 Auburn                 SEC      92.54  .634  .925  138   82  3  2
   16 Vanderbilt             SEC      91.73  .828  .921  259  116  5  1
   17 Southern Cal           BIG10    90.66  .815  .915  242  115  4  1
   18 LSU                    SEC      90.59  .769  .915  135   61  4  1
   19 Nebraska               BIG10    90.27  .779  .913  212   81  4  1
   20 South Florida          AMER     89.86  .750  .911  181  112  4  1
   21 Tennessee              SEC      89.52  .800  .910  255  145  4  1
   22 Old Dominion           SUNBEL   89.25  .791  .908  181   73  4  1
   23 Virginia               ACC      87.75  .804  .900  258  143  5  1
   24 Cincinnati             BIG12    85.72  .757  .888  196  104  4  1
   25 Memphis                AMER     85.28  .945  .886  243   97  6  0
   26 Utah                   BIG12    84.84  .797  .883  195   73  4  1
   27 Brigham Young          BIG12    84.46  .931  .881  192   61  5  0
   28 Mississippi St         SEC      84.06  .653  .879  202  119  4  2
   29 Tulane                 AMER     83.83  .708  .877  131  120  4  1
   30 South Carolina         SEC      83.06  .603  .872  124   94  3  2
   31 Harvard                IVY      82.61  .995  .870  159   38  3  0
   32 Duke                   ACC      82.52  .671  .869  219  153  4  2
   33 Oregon                 BIG10    81.92  .957  .865  233   61  5  0
   34 Washington             BIG10    81.43  .759  .862  197   99  4  1
   35 Arizona St             BIG12    81.24  .738  .861  146  106  4  1
   36 Florida                SEC      80.80  .448  .858  117   85  2  3
   37 Georgia Tech           ACC      79.92  .874  .852  185  106  5  0
   38 North Carolina St      ACC      79.86  .643  .852  203  150  4  2
   39 Iowa St                BIG12    79.16  .761  .847  188  109  5  1
   40 TCU                    BIG12    78.65  .796  .843  184  107  4  1
   41 North Texas            AMER     78.44  .913  .842  224  100  5  0
   42 Arkansas               SEC      77.98  .479  .839  187  150  2  3
   43 Kansas                 BIG12    77.23  .686  .834  210  123  4  2
   44 Louisville             ACC      75.57  .788  .822  180  105  4  1
   45 Houston                BIG12    75.57  .744  .822  136   88  4  1
   46 Louisiana Tech         CUSA     75.35  .774  .820  140   68  4  1
   47 Iowa                   BIG10    73.96  .649  .810  147   78  3  2
   48 Purdue                 BIG10    73.89  .416  .810  139  149  2  3
   49 Baylor                 BIG12    73.24  .631  .805  218  178  4  2
   50 East Carolina          AMER     72.63  .630  .800  152   67  3  2
   51 Texas                  SEC      72.49  .644  .799  148   60  3  2
   52 Wake Forest            ACC      72.47  .591  .799  135  106  3  2
   53 Maryland               BIG10    72.13  .800  .796  150   67  4  1
   54 Kentucky               SEC      72.04  .412  .796  122  139  2  3
   55 Michigan St            BIG10    71.68  .570  .793  164  153  3  2
   56 Virginia Tech          ACC      71.05  .346  .788  141  170  2  4
   57 Arizona                BIG12    70.55  .767  .784  166   78  4  1
   58 Tarleton St            UNITED   69.61  .943  .777  291  106  6  0
   59 Utah St                MTNWES   68.95  .586  .771  182  152  3  2
   60 SMU                    ACC      68.84  .632  .770  170  124  3  2
   61 Boise St               MTNWES   68.65  .589  .769  161  127  3  2
   62 Northwestern           BIG10    66.77  .572  .753  118   85  3  2
   63 Colorado               BIG12    66.59  .402  .752  150  149  2  4
   64 Syracuse               ACC      65.06  .483  .739  174  179  3  3
   65 Western Michigan       MIDAME   64.37  .495  .733  118  124  3  3
   66 Army                   AMER     63.49  .426  .725  126  137  2  3
   67 Toledo                 MIDAME   63.23  .669  .723  179   62  3  2
   68 Clemson                ACC      63.22  .464  .723  117  101  2  3
   69 Navy                   AMER     63.13  .906  .722  187   98  5  0
   70 Southern Miss          SUNBEL   61.70  .600  .709  155  131  3  2
   71 Kansas St              BIG12    61.56  .421  .708  165  161  2  4
   72 Wisconsin              BIG10    61.54  .419  .707   93   99  2  3
   73 Washington St          IND      61.54  .543  .707  103  144  3  2
   74 UNLV                   MTNWES   61.32  .872  .705  178  130  5  0
   75 James Madison          SUNBEL   60.27  .769  .696  139   68  4  1
   76 Fresno St              MTNWES   59.93  .743  .692  184  117  5  1
   77 South Dakota St        MOVAL    59.30  .908  .686  173   85  5  0
   78 Kennesaw St            CUSA     59.09  .574  .684   97  116  3  2
   79 Louisiana-Monroe       SUNBEL   57.31  .547  .667   95  156  3  2
   80 North Dakota St        MOVAL    57.07  .983  .665  222   46  5  0
   81 Rutgers                BIG10    57.07  .619  .665  195  127  3  2
   82 San Diego St           MTNWES   56.98  .755  .664  140   63  4  1
   83 New Mexico             MTNWES   56.77  .604  .662  150  121  3  2
   84 Hawai`i                MTNWES   56.15  .633  .656  154  141  4  2
   85 Pittsburgh             ACC      56.06  .656  .655  205   98  3  2
   86 Temple                 AMER     55.89  .573  .653  151  125  3  2
   87 Western Kentucky       CUSA     55.84  .753  .652  202  137  5  1
   88 California             ACC      55.62  .617  .650  145  135  4  2
   89 Montana                PIONEE   55.19  .889  .646  212  128  5  0
   90 Minnesota              BIG10    54.94  .560  .643  137  107  3  2
   91 Central Florida        BIG12    54.57  .611  .639  159   87  3  2
   92 Penn State             BIG10    54.46  .665  .638  193   89  3  2
   93 West Virginia          BIG12    54.36  .349  .637  134  171  2  4
   94 Stanford               ACC      53.67  .380  .630  103  147  2  3
   95 Coastal Carolina       SUNBEL   53.42  .375  .628   65  153  2  3
   96 Delaware               CUSA     53.38  .588  .627  148  132  3  2
   97 Connecticut            IND      53.32  .664  .627  222  136  4  2
   98 Southern Illinois      MOVAL    53.27  .801  .626  217  105  4  1
   99 Ohio U.                MIDAME   53.13  .518  .625  158  156  3  3
  100 Montana St             PIONEE   52.99  .679  .623  186  109  4  2
  101 UCLA                   BIG10    52.19  .242  .615   99  162  1  4
  102 Troy                   SUNBEL   51.90  .550  .612  113  116  3  2
  103 UC-Davis               PIONEE   51.12  .721  .603  159  167  4  1
  104 Wyoming                MTNWES   50.80  .403  .600   84  106  2  3
  105 Ball St                MIDAME   50.06  .368  .592   82  147  2  3
  106 Arkansas St            SUNBEL   49.95  .350  .591  140  190  2  4
  107 New Mexico St          CUSA     49.93  .565  .590  111  114  3  2
  108 Texas St-San Marcos    SUNBEL   49.71  .619  .588  175  131  3  2
  109 San Jose St            MTNWES   49.22  .422  .583  116  140  2  3
  110 Lehigh                 OVC      48.63  .923  .576  200  112  6  0
  111 Brown                  IVY      48.54  .619  .575   81   62  2  1
  112 North Dakota           MOVAL    48.46  .682  .574  201   96  3  2
  113 Alabama-Birmingham     AMER     48.43  .364  .574  144  195  2  3
  114 Presbyterian           PATR     48.08  .914  .570  213   65  5  0
  115 Air Force              MTNWES   47.89  .293  .568  182  189  1  4
  116 Tulsa                  AMER     47.86  .349  .568  112  158  2  4
  117 Appalachian St         SUNBEL   47.38  .540  .562  117  132  3  2
  118 UTEP                   CUSA     47.04  .267  .559  104  133  1  4
  119 SE Louisiana           STHLND   46.69  .651  .555  194  138  4  2
  120 Missouri St            CUSA     45.75  .397  .544  108  158  2  3
  121 Miami OH               MIDAME   45.51  .434  .542  118  117  2  3
  122 Austin Peay            UNITED   45.14  .663  .537  213  134  4  2
  123 Georgia St             SUNBEL   43.94  .224  .524   88  206  1  4
  124 Akron                  MIDAME   43.86  .360  .523  110  183  2  4
  125 Bowling Green          MIDAME   43.81  .403  .522  106  129  2  3
  126 Georgia Southern       SUNBEL   43.56  .376  .520  130  187  2  3
  127 Texas-San Antonio      AMER     43.41  .423  .518  146  148  2  3
  128 South Alabama          SUNBEL   43.27  .251  .516  150  190  1  5
  129 Central Michigan       MIDAME   42.80  .475  .511  131  173  3  3
  130 Stephen F. Austin      STHLND   42.65  .662  .509  183  106  4  2
  131 North Carolina         ACC      42.31  .397  .506   94  129  2  3
  132 Boston College         ACC      42.15  .306  .504  157  158  1  4
  133 Tennessee Tech         BIGSKY   42.01  .993  .502  283   59  5  0
  134 Idaho                  PIONEE   41.63  .457  .498  125  121  2  3
  135 Lamar                  STHLND   41.58  .694  .497  110  120  4  1
  136 West Georgia           UNITED   41.29  .768  .494  193  124  5  1
  137 Oregon St              IND      41.20  .098  .493  110  210  0  6
  138 Northern Arizona       PIONEE   40.16  .584  .481  181  192  4  2
  139 Abilene Christian      UNITED   40.12  .472  .480  160  189  3  3
  140 Cal Poly SLO           PIONEE   39.74  .506  .476  182  180  3  3
  141 Youngstown St          MOVAL    38.87  .580  .466  165  136  3  2
  142 Florida Int'l          CUSA     38.85  .384  .466  106  160  2  3
  143 Rice                   AMER     38.81  .493  .466  123  129  3  3
  144 Buffalo                MIDAME   38.67  .506  .464  151  128  3  3
  145 Florida Atlantic       AMER     38.22  .395  .459  144  167  2  3
  146 Jacksonville St        CUSA     38.14  .447  .458  148  134  2  3
  147 Marshall               SUNBEL   37.70  .471  .453  158  155  2  3
  148 Oklahoma St            BIG12    37.61  .235  .452   82  181  1  4
  149 Mercer                 STHRN    37.51  .744  .451  153   91  4  1
  150 Furman                 STHRN    37.19  .729  .447  151  119  4  1
  151 Pennsylvania           IVY      35.77  .593  .431   90   89  2  1
  152 Nevada                 MTNWES   35.33  .262  .426   77  128  1  4
  153 Sacramento St          PIONEE   34.67  .470  .418  138  116  2  3
  154 Rhode Island           COASTA   34.21  .620  .413  134  126  4  2
  155 Gardner-Webb           BIGSKY   34.15  .518  .412  152  196  3  2
  156 Northern Illinois      MIDAME   33.61  .242  .406   55  106  1  4
  157 Colorado St            MTNWES   33.28  .239  .402   85  137  1  4
  158 Monmouth NJ            COASTA   32.97  .751  .399  226  180  4  1
  159 Middle Tennessee St    CUSA     32.77  .206  .397   82  155  1  4
  160 Southern Utah          UNITED   32.05  .293  .388  222  235  1  5
  161 Louisiana-Lafayette    SUNBEL   31.61  .439  .383  141  161  2  3
  162 Villanova              COASTA   31.59  .548  .383  131  151  3  2
  163 South Dakota           MOVAL    31.17  .491  .378  148  188  3  3
  164 UNC-Charlotte          AMER     31.13  .211  .378   99  171  1  4
  165 Alabama St             SWAC     30.86  .799  .375  203  117  4  1
  166 Weber St               PIONEE   30.69  .346  .373  105  192  2  3
  167 East Tennessee St      STHRN    30.61  .396  .372  175  209  2  4
  168 Sam Houston St         CUSA     29.82  .038  .363   75  208  0  5
  169 San Diego              PATR     29.76  .442  .363  140  190  3  3
  170 Incarnate Word         STHLND   29.68  .364  .362  135  158  2  4
  171 Idaho St               PIONEE   29.66  .392  .361  231  176  2  4
  172 Indiana St             MOVAL    29.49  .387  .360  126  229  2  3
  173 Liberty                CUSA     29.47  .264  .359   85  116  1  4
  174 Kent St                MIDAME   29.31  .204  .358   73  220  1  4
  175 Dartmouth              IVY      29.09  .598  .355   86   84  2  1
  176 Princeton              IVY      28.86  .628  .353   90   80  2  1
  177 Jackson St             SWAC     28.59  .786  .350  173   89  4  1
  178 Bucknell               OVC      28.56  .580  .349  169  192  4  2
  179 Central Arkansas       UNITED   28.52  .339  .349  128  231  2  4
  180 Duquesne               NEC      28.33  .503  .347  170  193  3  3
  181 Eastern Kentucky       UNITED   28.19  .380  .345   83  139  2  3
  182 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND   28.01  .812  .343  292   86  5  1
  183 Elon                   COASTA   27.25  .642  .335  183  132  4  2
  184 Utah Tech              UNITED   26.86  .241  .331  108  163  1  5
  185 Illinois St            MOVAL    26.77  .547  .330  140  147  3  2
  186 Lindenwood             BIGSKY   26.60  .462  .328  121  162  3  3
  187 Yale                   IVY      26.23  .648  .324   82   65  2  1
  188 Nicholls St            STHLND   26.12  .200  .323   77  164  1  5
  189 Lafayette              OVC      26.11  .636  .322  181  151  4  2
  190 Northern Iowa          MOVAL    25.64  .383  .317   78  114  2  3
  191 Stony Brook            COASTA   24.89  .538  .309  167  143  3  3
  192 William & Mary         COASTA   24.71  .488  .307  161  177  3  3
  193 Eastern Michigan       MIDAME   24.29  .226  .303  150  214  1  5
  194 Mercyhurst             NEC      23.68  .348  .297  120  168  2  4
  195 St Thomas MN           PATR     23.45  .477  .294  126  108  2  3
  196 Colgate                OVC      22.40  .458  .283  165  174  2  3
  197 Richmond               OVC      22.35  .480  .283  113  131  3  3
  198 The Citadel            STHRN    22.18  .411  .281   81  122  2  3
  199 Marist                 PATR     21.82  .594  .277  122  103  3  2
  200 Western Carolina       STHRN    21.51  .481  .274  201  222  3  3
  201 New Hampshire          COASTA   21.48  .504  .274  126  130  3  3
  202 Butler                 PATR     21.17  .585  .271  143  152  4  2
  203 Merrimack              DII      19.09  .499  .250  111  110  3  3
  204 Central Conn St        NEC      19.04  .530  .250  162  159  3  3
  205 Charleston Southern    BIGSKY   19.03  .219  .250   96  181  1  5
  206 Sacred Heart           DII      19.02  .571  .250  147  157  4  2
  207 Eastern Washington     PIONEE   17.99  .359  .240  139  214  2  4
  208 Tennessee-Martin       BIGSKY   17.87  .188  .239   92  188  1  5
  209 South Carolina St      MEAC     17.76  .475  .237  168  194  3  3
  210 Northern Colorado      PIONEE   16.91  .439  .229   95   97  2  3
  211 Stonehill              NEC      16.46  .355  .225   91  125  2  4
  212 McNeese St             STHLND   15.90  .221  .220  129  205  1  5
  213 Columbia               IVY      15.77  .350  .219   43   65  1  2
  214 Eastern Illinois       BIGSKY   15.61  .568  .217  130  124  3  2
  215 Towson                 COASTA   15.34  .477  .215  128  145  3  3
  216 Drake                  PATR     14.49  .522  .207  124   86  2  2
  217 North Carolina Central MEAC     14.40  .641  .207  208  176  4  2
  218 Campbell               COASTA   14.34  .205  .206  142  261  1  5
  219 LIU                    NEC      14.20  .224  .205   72  162  1  5
  220 Howard                 MEAC     12.85  .593  .193  101   94  3  2
  221 Prairie View A&M       SWAC     12.76  .576  .192  128  135  4  2
  222 Wofford                STHRN    12.66  .178  .191   73  113  0  5
  223 Maine                  COASTA   12.37  .384  .189  132  158  2  4
  224 Delaware St            MEAC     11.88  .520  .185  198  175  3  3
  225 Chattanooga            STHRN    11.32  .323  .180  145  184  2  4
  226 SE Missouri St         BIGSKY   10.39  .197  .173  109  197  1  4
  227 Georgetown DC          OVC      10.38  .498  .173  156  165  3  3
  228 Fordham                OVC       9.28  .166  .164  113  245  1  5
  229 Holy Cross             OVC       9.03  .147  .162   95  160  0  6
  230 Bethune-Cookman        SWAC      8.64  .329  .159  164  237  2  4
  231 Portland St            PIONEE    8.44  .045  .157   67  250  0  6
  232 Houston Christian      STHLND    7.49  .272  .150  116  132  1  4
  233 Texas Southern         SWAC      7.47  .413  .150  105  115  2  3
  234 Dayton                 PATR      7.27  .749  .148  152   80  4  1
  235 Murray St              MOVAL     6.93  .029  .146   96  221  0  5
  236 North Alabama          UNITED    4.14  .269  .126  135  196  1  4
  237 Grambling St           SWAC      3.64  .540  .122  136  164  3  2
  238 Bryant                 COASTA    3.47  .384  .121  158  161  2  4
  239 Alabama A&M            SWAC      2.90  .471  .117  178  209  3  3
  240 VMI                    STHRN     2.51  .264  .115  105  153  1  4
  241 East Texas A&M         STHLND    1.77  .269  .110  126  210  1  4
  242 Morgan St              MEAC      1.23  .378  .107  118  169  2  4
  243 Samford                STHRN     1.14  .031  .106   92  242  0  6
  244 New Haven              NEC       0.78  .451  .104  133  182  3  3
  245 Western Illinois       BIGSKY    0.23  .191  .101  135  273  1  5
  246 Florida A&M            SWAC     -0.39  .279  .097   70  133  1  3
  247 Southern U.            SWAC     -0.39  .187  .097   75  184  1  4
  248 Tennessee St           BIGSKY   -0.94  .212  .094   63  169  1  4
  249 Wagner                 NEC      -1.08  .208  .093   65  160  1  4
  250 North Carolina A&T     COASTA   -2.55  .224  .084  145  259  1  5
  251 Robert Morris          NEC      -2.86  .238  .083   69  156  1  4
  252 Massachusetts          MIDAME   -3.34  .061  .080   52  179  0  5
  253 St Francis PA          NEC      -4.07  .042  .076   46  174  0  5
  254 Morehead St            PATR     -4.45  .327  .074  131  232  2  4
  255 Arkansas-Pine Bluff    SWAC     -5.05  .363  .071   89  187  2  3
  256 Albany NY              COASTA   -5.72  .200  .068   87  176  1  5
  257 Hampton                COASTA   -5.91  .340  .067  139  190  2  4
  258 Northwestern St        STHLND   -6.13  .221  .066   54  213  1  4
  259 Mississippi Valley St  SWAC     -8.98  .096  .054   55  172  0  4
  260 Norfolk St             MEAC    -11.43  .228  .044  126  208  1  5
  261 Cornell NY             IVY     -13.46  .101  .037   55   95  0  3
  262 Alcorn St              SWAC    -14.45  .131  .034   73  161  0  5
  263 Davidson               PATR    -14.86  .242  .033  115  213  1  4
  264 Stetson                PATR    -14.90  .320  .033  136  246  2  4
  265 Valparaiso             PATR    -18.13  .249  .024  111  170  1  4
  266 Non-Division I         DII     -20.27  .072  .019  594 2246  2 50
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Abilene Christian UNITED    7 Incarnate Word    STHLND   38 0.238
   2 LIU               NEC      28 Eastern Michigan  MIDAMER  23 0.451
   3 Lindenwood        BIGSKY   13 St Thomas MN      PATR     35 0.474
   4 Austin Peay       UNITED   31 Abilene Christian UNITED   45 0.486
   5 New Mexico        MTNWEST  28 San Jose St       MTNWEST  35 0.501
   6 San Diego         PATR     14 Marist            PATR     19 0.523
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings