Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
- the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
- rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
- rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Note: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here, and he includes other divisions.
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
BASED ON 1536 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 22 NOVEMBER 2025
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L
1 Ohio State BIG10 99.48 .968 .980 417 84 11 0
2 Indiana BIG10 96.21 .942 .972 476 128 11 0
3 Texas Tech BIG12 93.74 .912 .964 469 135 10 1
4 Texas A&M SEC 92.27 .902 .959 419 236 11 0
5 Georgia SEC 92.17 .855 .959 371 191 10 1
6 Oregon BIG10 89.78 .865 .949 432 164 10 1
7 Brigham Young BIG12 88.91 .830 .945 367 192 10 1
8 Alabama SEC 88.79 .771 .945 372 178 9 2
9 Mississippi SEC 88.45 .829 .943 409 222 10 1
10 Oklahoma SEC 87.83 .763 .940 300 154 9 2
11 Notre Dame IND 87.12 .831 .937 455 191 9 2
12 Utah BIG12 86.73 .814 .935 462 203 9 2
13 Vanderbilt SEC 85.36 .791 .927 428 239 9 2
14 Texas SEC 83.69 .687 .918 328 220 8 3
15 Miami FL ACC 81.74 .805 .906 371 159 9 2
16 Tennessee SEC 81.43 .721 .903 465 300 8 3
17 Southern Cal BIG10 80.78 .709 .899 409 259 8 3
18 Missouri SEC 80.27 .642 .896 355 216 7 4
19 Michigan BIG10 79.34 .749 .889 322 197 9 2
20 Arizona St BIG12 77.39 .657 .874 289 253 8 3
21 Iowa BIG10 77.32 .654 .873 307 166 7 4
22 LSU SEC 77.18 .597 .872 249 203 7 4
23 Washington BIG10 76.61 .722 .868 391 207 8 3
24 Arizona BIG12 76.40 .710 .866 368 220 8 3
25 Illinois BIG10 75.33 .616 .857 332 266 7 4
26 North Texas AMER 75.25 .861 .856 509 265 10 1
27 Iowa St BIG12 75.15 .613 .855 309 229 7 4
28 SMU ACC 74.20 .734 .847 360 210 8 3
29 South Florida AMER 73.90 .737 .844 464 277 8 3
30 TCU BIG12 73.87 .614 .844 324 279 7 4
31 Cincinnati BIG12 73.46 .626 .840 358 253 7 4
32 Houston BIG12 73.21 .678 .838 309 238 8 3
33 Auburn SEC 73.10 .511 .837 301 221 5 6
34 South Carolina SEC 73.06 .420 .836 258 237 4 7
35 Pittsburgh ACC 72.88 .714 .835 414 261 8 3
36 Virginia ACC 72.83 .759 .834 371 233 9 2
37 Kentucky SEC 72.40 .467 .830 276 276 5 6
38 Tulane AMER 72.23 .725 .829 317 273 9 2
39 Georgia Tech ACC 71.63 .737 .823 388 284 9 2
40 Mississippi St SEC 71.08 .469 .817 347 312 5 6
41 James Madison SUNBEL 70.80 .857 .815 395 182 10 1
42 Penn State BIG10 70.69 .541 .814 341 221 5 6
43 Florida SEC 70.44 .312 .811 219 267 3 8
44 Louisville ACC 70.16 .638 .808 321 253 7 4
45 North Carolina St ACC 70.11 .520 .808 320 327 6 5
46 Wisconsin BIG10 69.67 .359 .803 147 242 4 7
47 Nebraska BIG10 69.57 .604 .802 335 236 7 4
48 Wake Forest ACC 69.56 .680 .802 290 209 8 3
49 Navy AMER 69.09 .706 .797 329 279 8 2
50 Kansas St BIG12 68.65 .500 .793 329 306 5 6
51 Northwestern BIG10 68.37 .526 .790 257 231 6 5
52 Baylor BIG12 67.90 .455 .785 349 360 5 6
53 Florida St ACC 67.37 .520 .779 375 224 5 6
54 North Dakota St MOVAL 66.98 .962 .775 506 140 12 0
55 Memphis AMER 66.85 .722 .773 398 242 8 3
56 Kansas BIG12 66.57 .484 .770 316 290 5 6
57 East Carolina AMER 66.38 .637 .768 360 241 7 4
58 Duke ACC 66.14 .548 .766 366 321 6 5
59 Clemson ACC 65.90 .575 .763 316 231 6 5
60 Minnesota BIG10 65.25 .511 .756 262 274 6 5
61 Arkansas SEC 65.04 .313 .753 378 375 2 9
62 Rutgers BIG10 64.44 .446 .746 308 342 5 6
63 San Diego St MTNWES 64.38 .777 .746 279 128 9 2
64 West Virginia BIG12 63.92 .384 .740 261 321 4 7
65 UNLV MTNWES 63.85 .738 .740 404 320 9 2
66 Boise St MTNWES 63.82 .632 .739 345 254 7 4
67 Old Dominion SUNBEL 63.58 .704 .737 365 221 8 3
68 Texas-San Antonio AMER 62.96 .550 .729 381 328 6 5
69 Washington St IND 62.86 .498 .728 227 234 5 6
70 Colorado BIG12 62.84 .313 .728 237 342 3 8
71 New Mexico MTNWES 62.46 .671 .723 312 253 8 3
72 UCLA BIG10 62.07 .286 .719 208 372 3 8
73 Central Florida BIG12 62.04 .472 .718 271 242 5 6
74 Maryland BIG10 61.83 .414 .716 254 280 4 7
75 Kennesaw St CUSA 60.73 .681 .703 301 259 8 3
76 Hawai`i MTNWES 59.61 .619 .689 315 275 7 4
77 Virginia Tech ACC 59.13 .291 .683 250 335 3 8
78 California ACC 59.04 .507 .682 260 283 6 5
79 Stanford ACC 58.98 .363 .681 206 301 4 7
80 Connecticut IND 58.44 .712 .675 443 310 9 3
81 Army AMER 58.25 .502 .672 226 224 5 5
82 Utah St MTNWES 58.23 .540 .672 357 314 6 5
83 Montana St PIONEE 58.21 .814 .672 458 206 10 2
84 Michigan St BIG10 58.11 .315 .671 257 331 3 8
85 Toledo MIDAME 57.72 .681 .666 358 143 7 4
86 Western Michigan MIDAME 57.54 .603 .664 253 203 7 4
87 Syracuse ACC 57.54 .278 .664 230 385 3 8
88 Western Kentucky CUSA 57.40 .675 .662 323 244 8 3
89 Fresno St MTNWES 57.18 .595 .659 276 227 7 4
90 Temple AMER 57.11 .466 .658 309 304 5 6
91 North Carolina ACC 56.35 .400 .649 212 252 4 7
92 Purdue BIG10 56.34 .244 .648 222 326 2 9
93 Ohio U. MIDAME 56.29 .629 .648 313 249 7 4
94 Missouri St CUSA 55.88 .577 .643 275 298 7 4
95 Tarleton St UNITED 55.53 .879 .638 542 221 11 1
96 Southern Miss SUNBEL 54.75 .608 .628 340 301 7 4
97 Louisiana Tech CUSA 54.53 .565 .626 290 226 6 5
98 Troy SUNBEL 54.51 .589 .625 274 269 7 4
99 Miami OH MIDAME 54.38 .550 .624 268 239 6 5
100 Montana PIONEE 54.18 .856 .621 490 282 11 1
101 Texas St-San Marcos SUNBEL 53.89 .508 .617 384 341 5 6
102 Coastal Carolina SUNBEL 53.84 .519 .617 264 348 6 5
103 Lehigh OVC 53.66 .942 .614 406 167 12 0
104 Rice AMER 53.61 .422 .614 235 335 5 6
105 Florida Atlantic AMER 53.52 .393 .613 351 394 4 7
106 Florida Int'l CUSA 53.30 .521 .610 295 317 6 5
107 Marshall SUNBEL 52.61 .491 .601 350 339 5 6
108 Jacksonville St CUSA 51.80 .596 .590 325 287 7 4
109 Central Michigan MIDAME 51.63 .623 .588 283 251 7 4
110 Arkansas St SUNBEL 51.44 .456 .586 263 299 5 6
111 Louisiana-Lafayette SUNBEL 51.34 .453 .584 295 333 5 6
112 Tulsa AMER 51.31 .378 .584 254 316 4 7
113 Georgia Southern SUNBEL 50.87 .432 .578 310 391 5 6
114 Stephen F. Austin STHLND 49.92 .809 .566 427 183 10 2
115 Air Force MTNWES 49.91 .339 .566 316 343 3 8
116 North Dakota MOVAL 48.90 .651 .553 417 241 7 5
117 Appalachian St SUNBEL 48.55 .455 .548 275 328 5 6
118 South Alabama SUNBEL 48.55 .406 .548 292 316 4 7
119 Delaware CUSA 48.48 .438 .547 296 359 5 6
120 Wyoming MTNWES 48.27 .392 .544 185 219 4 7
121 UC-Davis PIONEE 48.13 .677 .543 343 324 8 3
122 Alabama-Birmingham AMER 48.07 .267 .542 286 435 3 8
123 San Jose St MTNWES 47.15 .312 .530 243 349 3 8
124 Nevada MTNWES 47.08 .311 .529 194 288 3 8
125 Colorado St MTNWES 47.05 .229 .528 201 328 2 9
126 Harvard IVY 46.95 .864 .527 394 181 9 1
127 Abilene Christian UNITED 46.77 .625 .525 342 309 8 4
128 Tennessee Tech BIGSKY 46.39 .863 .520 482 212 11 1
129 Boston College ACC 46.36 .181 .519 271 381 1 10
130 South Dakota St MOVAL 46.26 .635 .518 330 254 8 4
131 Liberty CUSA 46.24 .409 .518 265 270 4 7
132 New Mexico St CUSA 46.17 .385 .517 235 300 4 7
133 Oklahoma St BIG12 45.89 .147 .513 157 380 1 10
134 Yale IVY 45.63 .771 .510 296 172 8 2
135 South Dakota MOVAL 45.27 .596 .505 300 326 8 4
136 Oregon St IND 44.33 .240 .493 210 321 2 9
137 Illinois St MOVAL 44.22 .629 .491 367 326 8 4
138 SE Louisiana STHLND 44.21 .733 .491 400 213 9 3
139 Youngstown St MOVAL 43.87 .628 .487 434 360 8 4
140 Buffalo MIDAME 43.48 .464 .482 262 251 5 6
141 Eastern Michigan MIDAME 43.15 .381 .477 268 326 4 7
142 Ball St MIDAME 43.07 .340 .476 166 313 4 7
143 Southern Illinois MOVAL 43.06 .606 .476 437 320 7 5
144 Idaho St PIONEE 42.93 .505 .475 396 327 6 6
145 Louisiana-Monroe SUNBEL 42.35 .275 .467 172 353 3 8
146 Akron MIDAME 42.06 .427 .463 267 329 5 7
147 Southern Utah UNITED 41.67 .586 .458 405 355 7 5
148 Bowling Green MIDAME 41.16 .316 .452 201 277 3 8
149 Middle Tennessee St CUSA 40.86 .243 .448 238 347 2 9
150 Northern Illinois MIDAME 40.72 .307 .446 174 257 3 8
151 West Georgia UNITED 40.56 .660 .444 281 233 8 3
152 Lamar STHLND 40.33 .614 .441 272 261 8 4
153 Austin Peay UNITED 40.23 .588 .440 421 328 7 5
154 Northern Arizona PIONEE 40.19 .546 .439 380 375 7 5
155 Sacramento St PIONEE 39.97 .597 .436 405 315 7 5
156 Kent St MIDAME 39.92 .359 .436 220 372 4 7
157 UTEP CUSA 39.72 .270 .433 249 304 2 9
158 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND 39.28 .736 .427 475 226 9 3
159 Rhode Island COASTA 38.16 .789 .413 385 230 10 2
160 Villanova COASTA 37.98 .748 .411 337 249 9 2
161 Sam Houston St CUSA 37.97 .195 .410 197 398 2 9
162 Dartmouth IVY 37.08 .637 .399 264 213 7 3
163 Mercer STHRN 36.60 .768 .393 434 259 9 2
164 UNC-Charlotte AMER 35.94 .109 .384 172 409 1 10
165 Pennsylvania IVY 35.73 .568 .382 271 265 6 4
166 Georgia St SUNBEL 35.12 .149 .374 227 427 1 10
167 Cal Poly SLO PIONEE 34.80 .370 .370 330 378 4 8
168 Eastern Kentucky UNITED 34.49 .424 .366 232 292 5 7
169 Incarnate Word STHLND 34.08 .447 .361 308 306 5 7
170 New Hampshire COASTA 33.81 .644 .357 320 256 8 4
171 Lafayette OVC 33.52 .633 .354 403 345 8 4
172 Idaho PIONEE 33.20 .384 .350 302 317 4 8
173 Weber St PIONEE 33.17 .325 .349 277 460 4 8
174 Eastern Washington PIONEE 32.76 .424 .344 281 362 5 7
175 Alabama St SWAC 32.38 .810 .339 451 236 9 2
176 Monmouth NJ COASTA 31.98 .729 .334 480 333 9 3
177 Tennessee-Martin BIGSKY 31.34 .474 .327 248 287 6 6
178 Gardner-Webb BIGSKY 31.21 .546 .325 330 357 7 5
179 Brown IVY 31.12 .484 .324 265 270 5 5
180 Nicholls St STHLND 30.81 .353 .320 219 299 4 8
181 San Diego PATR 30.19 .634 .312 341 292 8 4
182 South Carolina St MEAC 29.91 .687 .309 381 316 9 3
183 McNeese St STHLND 29.61 .426 .305 282 306 5 7
184 Northern Colorado PIONEE 29.58 .363 .305 243 341 4 8
185 Jackson St SWAC 29.34 .791 .302 373 202 9 2
186 Drake PATR 29.28 .681 .301 287 174 8 3
187 Northern Iowa MOVAL 29.27 .287 .301 207 321 3 9
188 Lindenwood BIGSKY 29.20 .493 .300 297 324 6 6
189 Princeton IVY 29.16 .362 .300 208 244 3 7
190 Central Arkansas UNITED 28.84 .307 .296 294 422 3 9
191 Indiana St MOVAL 28.25 .265 .289 254 475 3 9
192 East Tennessee St STHRN 27.95 .589 .285 390 346 7 5
193 Prairie View A&M SWAC 27.32 .718 .278 381 189 9 3
194 Central Conn St NEC 27.26 .645 .277 328 271 8 4
195 Presbyterian PATR 27.24 .784 .277 413 194 10 2
196 Sacred Heart DII 27.01 .599 .274 343 315 8 4
197 Richmond OVC 26.38 .543 .267 263 272 7 5
198 William & Mary COASTA 26.24 .566 .265 354 308 7 5
199 St Thomas MN PATR 26.17 .609 .264 371 246 7 5
200 Cornell NY IVY 26.15 .398 .264 210 260 4 6
201 Charleston Southern BIGSKY 26.03 .399 .262 199 288 5 7
202 Colgate OVC 25.85 .439 .260 340 372 5 7
203 Western Carolina STHRN 25.69 .571 .258 463 402 7 5
204 Stony Brook COASTA 25.29 .524 .254 336 309 6 6
205 Maine COASTA 25.05 .510 .251 290 291 6 6
206 Duquesne NEC 25.04 .565 .251 341 303 7 5
207 Holy Cross OVC 24.93 .336 .250 246 297 3 9
208 Utah Tech UNITED 24.50 .200 .245 192 352 2 10
209 SE Missouri St BIGSKY 24.48 .350 .245 278 361 4 8
210 Wofford STHRN 24.44 .550 .244 274 207 6 6
211 Columbia IVY 24.12 .244 .240 156 279 2 8
212 LIU NEC 23.85 .504 .237 197 226 6 6
213 Elon COASTA 23.57 .510 .234 345 297 6 6
214 North Carolina Central MEAC 23.38 .653 .232 405 308 8 4
215 North Alabama UNITED 23.33 .246 .231 303 470 2 10
216 Delaware St MEAC 22.65 .637 .224 387 297 8 4
217 East Texas A&M STHLND 22.11 .280 .218 307 478 3 9
218 Western Illinois BIGSKY 21.87 .343 .215 277 417 4 8
219 Georgetown DC OVC 21.50 .478 .211 253 320 6 6
220 Portland St PIONEE 21.33 .107 .210 194 512 1 11
221 Furman STHRN 21.20 .469 .208 293 372 6 6
222 Mercyhurst NEC 21.03 .415 .206 225 297 5 7
223 Towson COASTA 20.64 .492 .202 321 301 6 6
224 Murray St MOVAL 20.48 .112 .201 228 463 1 11
225 Eastern Illinois BIGSKY 20.25 .288 .198 210 350 3 9
226 Dayton PATR 19.95 .637 .195 306 191 7 4
227 Chattanooga STHRN 19.80 .406 .194 339 396 5 7
228 Grambling St SWAC 19.03 .571 .186 262 285 7 4
229 Bucknell OVC 18.63 .400 .182 313 409 5 7
230 Butler PATR 18.22 .483 .178 274 304 6 6
231 Stonehill NEC 18.06 .354 .176 181 277 4 8
232 The Citadel STHRN 17.80 .386 .173 246 322 4 8
233 Merrimack DII 17.63 .369 .172 246 293 4 8
234 Marist PATR 17.25 .456 .168 272 282 5 7
235 Bethune-Cookman SWAC 16.33 .482 .159 356 392 6 6
236 Texas Southern SWAC 16.30 .517 .159 284 257 6 5
237 Wagner NEC 16.20 .398 .158 197 294 5 7
238 Houston Christian STHLND 14.06 .203 .139 202 363 2 10
239 Albany NY COASTA 13.29 .201 .133 201 387 2 10
240 Bryant COASTA 12.27 .286 .124 270 364 3 9
241 Howard MEAC 11.95 .419 .122 238 295 5 7
242 New Haven NEC 11.90 .470 .121 279 286 5 5
243 Campbell COASTA 11.59 .249 .119 296 430 2 10
244 Alcorn St SWAC 11.54 .480 .118 291 278 5 7
245 Morehead St PATR 11.46 .452 .118 254 358 6 6
246 Fordham OVC 11.42 .138 .117 191 397 1 11
247 Tennessee St BIGSKY 11.17 .223 .116 155 319 2 10
248 Florida A&M SWAC 11.12 .419 .115 260 371 5 6
249 Northwestern St STHLND 11.01 .126 .114 126 499 1 11
250 Robert Morris NEC 10.87 .296 .113 182 299 3 9
251 Alabama A&M SWAC 9.76 .355 .105 281 401 4 8
252 Massachusetts MIDAME 9.45 .047 .103 119 418 0 11
253 Morgan St MEAC 9.02 .392 .100 280 319 4 8
254 North Carolina A&T COASTA 7.61 .195 .090 246 523 2 10
255 Arkansas-Pine Bluff SWAC 6.83 .294 .085 209 390 3 8
256 Samford STHRN 3.28 .099 .065 175 455 1 11
257 Davidson PATR 2.79 .192 .063 218 475 2 10
258 St Francis PA NEC 2.29 .094 .060 115 319 0 11
259 VMI STHRN -0.02 .143 .050 191 451 1 11
260 Hampton COASTA -0.16 .182 .049 215 440 2 10
261 Stetson PATR -0.42 .253 .048 226 469 3 9
262 Norfolk St MEAC -1.46 .163 .044 251 427 1 11
263 Valparaiso PATR -1.57 .204 .043 244 427 2 10
264 Southern U. SWAC -2.64 .127 .039 195 406 1 10
265 Mississippi Valley St SWAC -4.42 .146 .033 185 433 1 10
266 Non-Division I DII -10.45 .062 .018 657 2713 2 59
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Alabama SEC 17 Florida St ACC 31 0.112
2 Presbyterian PATR 13 Davidson PATR 14 0.171
3 Indiana St MOVAL 24 South Dakota St MOVAL 12 0.171
4 Abilene Christian UNITED 7 Incarnate Word STHLND 38 0.192
5 Memphis AMER 24 Alabama-Birmingha AMER 31 0.201
6 Albany NY COASTAL 31 Monmouth NJ COASTAL 24 0.203
7 LIU NEC 28 Eastern Michigan MIDAMER 23 0.213
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
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