Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Note: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here, and he includes other divisions.
             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 1683 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
                THROUGH GAMES OF MONDAY 19 JANUARY 2026
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Indiana                BIG10   105.10  .936  .990  666  187 16  0
    2 Oregon                 BIG10    95.25  .823  .971  554  268 13  2
    3 Ohio State             BIG10    93.31  .852  .965  468  130 12  2
    4 Texas Tech             BIG12    92.19  .860  .961  552  165 12  2
    5 Miami FL               ACC      89.48  .785  .951  495  237 13  3
    6 Georgia                SEC      88.68  .814  .947  449  246 12  2
    7 Mississippi            SEC      87.42  .805  .941  554  316 13  2
    8 Notre Dame             IND      87.16  .844  .940  504  211 10  2
    9 Brigham Young          BIG12    86.57  .780  .937  440  268 12  2
   10 Utah                   BIG12    85.62  .832  .932  537  246 11  2
   11 Texas A&M              SEC      84.21  .784  .924  439  273 11  2
   12 Alabama                SEC      83.95  .684  .923  443  288 11  4
   13 Texas                  SEC      83.52  .720  .920  396  264 10  3
   14 Oklahoma               SEC      82.82  .716  .916  341  201 10  3
   15 Iowa                   BIG10    82.01  .693  .911  381  209  9  4
   16 Vanderbilt             SEC      81.16  .755  .905  500  297 10  3
   17 Southern Cal           BIG10    80.43  .690  .900  465  299  9  4
   18 Illinois               BIG10    77.84  .646  .881  382  307  9  4
   19 Arizona                BIG12    77.76  .729  .880  391  227  9  3
   20 Michigan               BIG10    77.18  .643  .875  358  265  9  4
   21 Washington             BIG10    77.10  .694  .875  443  243  9  4
   22 TCU                    BIG12    76.31  .655  .868  399  329  9  4
   23 Houston                BIG12    74.98  .700  .857  378  297 10  3
   24 Iowa St                BIG12    74.93  .632  .856  329  242  8  4
   25 Tennessee              SEC      74.79  .630  .855  517  375  8  5
   26 Missouri               SEC      74.44  .627  .852  393  246  8  5
   27 Virginia               ACC      74.42  .735  .852  431  274 11  3
   28 Tulane                 AMER     74.38  .706  .851  388  335 11  3
   29 Penn State             BIG10    74.13  .590  .849  403  267  7  6
   30 Arizona St             BIG12    73.94  .577  .848  335  318  8  5
   31 North Texas            AMER     73.68  .808  .845  631  371 12  2
   32 Louisville             ACC      72.88  .679  .838  389  275  9  4
   33 James Madison          SUNBEL   72.78  .816  .837  519  257 12  2
   34 LSU                    SEC      72.73  .536  .836  297  258  7  6
   35 North Carolina St      ACC      72.73  .589  .836  393  353  8  5
   36 Georgia Tech           ACC      72.70  .650  .836  418  325  9  4
   37 SMU                    ACC      72.46  .690  .834  395  248  8  4
   38 Duke                   ACC      71.92  .616  .828  484  412  9  5
   39 Cincinnati             BIG12    71.51  .576  .824  381  298  7  5
   40 South Florida          AMER     71.41  .707  .823  526  304  9  4
   41 Pittsburgh             ACC      71.27  .618  .822  438  322  8  5
   42 Kansas St              BIG12    69.95  .532  .809  353  320  6  6
   43 Navy                   AMER     69.94  .727  .809  374  312 10  2
   44 Northwestern           BIG10    69.43  .532  .803  304  258  7  6
   45 Nebraska               BIG10    69.31  .516  .802  373  320  7  6
   46 Minnesota              BIG10    69.31  .561  .802  299  298  8  5
   47 East Carolina          AMER     69.19  .680  .801  425  261  9  4
   48 Florida                SEC      69.07  .366  .800  259  288  4  8
   49 Auburn                 SEC      68.96  .481  .798  321  248  5  7
   50 Wake Forest            ACC      68.26  .629  .791  322  258  8  4
   51 Wisconsin              BIG10    67.77  .339  .786  154  259  4  8
   52 Kentucky               SEC      67.44  .429  .782  276  317  5  7
   53 Clemson                ACC      67.13  .565  .779  354  267  7  6
   54 Mississippi St         SEC      67.11  .434  .779  366  350  5  7
   55 Old Dominion           SUNBEL   66.74  .739  .775  416  241 10  3
   56 South Carolina         SEC      66.70  .392  .774  272  265  4  8
   57 Baylor                 BIG12    66.62  .430  .773  373  391  5  7
   58 Kansas                 BIG12    66.36  .453  .770  337  321  5  7
   59 Florida St             ACC      66.27  .481  .769  396  264  5  7
   60 Rutgers                BIG10    65.51  .425  .761  344  382  5  7
   61 Washington St          IND      64.38  .567  .748  293  263  7  6
   62 Boise St               MTNWES   64.24  .620  .746  418  337  9  5
   63 Memphis                AMER     63.93  .621  .743  422  301  8  5
   64 West Virginia          BIG12    63.80  .352  .741  261  370  4  8
   65 San Diego St           MTNWES   63.40  .687  .737  343  200  9  4
   66 Montana St             PIONEE   62.82  .832  .730  606  304 14  2
   67 New Mexico             MTNWES   62.72  .648  .729  352  290  9  4
   68 Texas-San Antonio      AMER     62.22  .558  .723  462  375  7  6
   69 Colorado               BIG12    62.22  .297  .723  251  366  3  9
   70 North Dakota St        MOVAL    62.17  .907  .722  534  169 12  1
   71 Central Florida        BIG12    62.15  .436  .722  292  283  5  7
   72 UCLA                   BIG10    62.15  .266  .722  218  401  3  9
   73 Michigan St            BIG10    62.01  .362  .720  295  359  4  8
   74 California             ACC      61.90  .505  .719  329  353  7  6
   75 Army                   AMER     61.76  .541  .717  310  281  7  6
   76 Hawai`i                MTNWES   61.23  .660  .711  377  313  9  4
   77 Arkansas               SEC      61.22  .293  .711  395  406  2 10
   78 Western Michigan       MIDAME   61.18  .671  .710  348  243 10  4
   79 UNLV                   MTNWES   61.05  .665  .709  477  392 10  4
   80 Stanford               ACC      59.90  .334  .695  226  350  4  8
   81 Maryland               BIG10    59.81  .389  .694  282  318  4  8
   82 Virginia Tech          ACC      59.20  .270  .686  257  362  3  9
   83 Ohio U.                MIDAME   58.85  .661  .682  361  285  9  4
   84 Toledo                 MIDAME   58.83  .663  .682  401  173  8  5
   85 Fresno St              MTNWES   58.81  .650  .681  335  244  9  4
   86 Kennesaw St            CUSA     58.67  .653  .680  374  357 10  4
   87 Connecticut            IND      57.64  .659  .667  459  351  9  4
   88 Purdue                 BIG10    57.44  .224  .664  225  382  2 10
   89 Temple                 AMER     57.31  .429  .663  334  356  5  7
   90 Utah St                MTNWES   56.75  .482  .656  402  373  6  7
   91 North Carolina         ACC      56.68  .369  .655  231  294  4  8
   92 Montana                PIONEE   56.65  .817  .654  615  381 13  2
   93 Western Kentucky       CUSA     56.16  .656  .648  384  297  9  4
   94 Louisiana Tech         CUSA     55.57  .615  .641  355  270  8  5
   95 Syracuse               ACC      54.38  .257  .626  242  419  3  9
   96 Tarleton St            UNITED   54.23  .834  .624  594  260 12  2
   97 Troy                   SUNBEL   53.74  .543  .618  329  335  8  6
   98 Texas St-San Marcos    SUNBEL   53.64  .547  .616  433  367  6  6
   99 Jacksonville St        CUSA     53.57  .596  .616  394  353  9  5
  100 Miami OH               MIDAME   53.55  .514  .615  329  304  7  7
  101 Georgia Southern       SUNBEL   52.90  .502  .607  363  420  7  6
  102 Illinois St            MOVAL    52.47  .667  .601  523  437 12  5
  103 Rice                   AMER     52.42  .387  .601  238  387  5  7
  104 Florida Int'l          CUSA     52.36  .518  .600  371  390  7  6
  105 Florida Atlantic       AMER     52.13  .360  .597  354  436  4  8
  106 Boston College         ACC      51.94  .246  .595  305  393  2 10
  107 Southern Miss          SUNBEL   51.91  .531  .594  374  356  7  6
  108 Arkansas St            SUNBEL   51.72  .509  .592  327  356  7  6
  109 Missouri St            CUSA     51.54  .508  .590  333  374  7  6
  110 Coastal Carolina       SUNBEL   51.44  .449  .588  288  430  6  7
  111 Air Force              MTNWES   51.09  .391  .584  358  364  4  8
  112 Delaware               CUSA     50.34  .512  .574  377  403  7  6
  113 Central Michigan       MIDAME   50.32  .533  .574  293  306  7  6
  114 Marshall               SUNBEL   50.24  .465  .573  369  363  5  7
  115 Stephen F. Austin      STHLND   50.17  .758  .572  496  261 11  3
  116 North Dakota           MOVAL    49.63  .631  .565  461  278  8  6
  117 Tulsa                  AMER     49.53  .359  .564  278  347  4  8
  118 Alabama-Birmingham     AMER     49.47  .315  .563  317  459  4  8
  119 Louisiana-Lafayette    SUNBEL   49.04  .456  .557  338  380  6  7
  120 Lehigh                 OVC      48.42  .881  .549  413  181 12  1
  121 UC-Davis               PIONEE   48.28  .655  .547  421  392  9  4
  122 South Dakota St        MOVAL    47.73  .618  .540  400  307  9  5
  123 Wyoming                MTNWES   47.32  .363  .535  192  246  4  8
  124 Villanova              COASTA   46.86  .731  .529  443  314 12  3
  125 South Dakota           MOVAL    46.76  .609  .528  407  395 10  5
  126 Oklahoma St            BIG12    46.51  .148  .525  170  400  1 11
  127 Nevada                 MTNWES   46.36  .287  .523  211  330  3  9
  128 Abilene Christian      UNITED   46.24  .614  .521  414  370  9  5
  129 San Jose St            MTNWES   46.19  .288  .520  257  390  3  9
  130 Appalachian St         SUNBEL   46.18  .407  .520  314  387  5  8
  131 South Alabama          SUNBEL   45.75  .375  .515  318  365  4  8
  132 Liberty                CUSA     45.69  .389  .514  307  318  4  8
  133 Colorado St            MTNWES   45.14  .213  .507  222  370  2 10
  134 Yale                   IVY      45.01  .717  .505  352  235  9  3
  135 Youngstown St          MOVAL    44.59  .598  .500  476  403  8  5
  136 Southern Illinois      MOVAL    44.57  .606  .499  437  320  7  5
  137 Buffalo                MIDAME   43.51  .440  .486  288  282  5  7
  138 Oregon St              IND      43.41  .222  .484  218  353  2 10
  139 Idaho St               PIONEE   43.38  .505  .484  396  327  6  6
  140 Harvard                IVY      43.00  .786  .479  401  233  9  2
  141 New Mexico St          CUSA     42.80  .366  .477  259  331  4  8
  142 Eastern Michigan       MIDAME   42.54  .359  .473  289  357  4  8
  143 Ball St                MIDAME   42.53  .314  .473  190  358  4  8
  144 Tennessee Tech         BIGSKY   42.49  .799  .472  488  243 11  2
  145 SE Louisiana           STHLND   42.26  .681  .470  403  234  9  4
  146 Akron                  MIDAME   42.04  .427  .467  267  329  5  7
  147 Middle Tennessee St    CUSA     41.79  .293  .463  269  371  3  9
  148 Southern Utah          UNITED   41.44  .586  .459  405  355  7  5
  149 Bowling Green          MIDAME   41.21  .372  .456  246  291  4  8
  150 Kent St                MIDAME   41.15  .397  .455  255  403  5  7
  151 Louisiana-Monroe       SUNBEL   40.58  .269  .448  199  383  3  9
  152 Northern Arizona       PIONEE   40.40  .546  .446  380  375  7  5
  153 Sacramento St          PIONEE   40.29  .597  .444  405  315  7  5
  154 West Georgia           UNITED   40.09  .660  .442  281  233  8  3
  155 Austin Peay            UNITED   39.97  .588  .440  421  328  7  5
  156 Northern Illinois      MIDAME   38.88  .297  .426  205  292  3  9
  157 Lamar                  STHLND   38.63  .571  .423  292  299  8  5
  158 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND   38.25  .736  .418  475  226  9  3
  159 UTEP                   CUSA     37.54  .248  .409  280  365  2 10
  160 Rhode Island           COASTA   37.53  .741  .409  438  296 11  3
  161 Sam Houston St         CUSA     36.72  .179  .399  213  454  2 10
  162 UNC-Charlotte          AMER     35.97  .101  .389  172  436  1 11
  163 Dartmouth              IVY      35.83  .637  .387  264  213  7  3
  164 Cal Poly SLO           PIONEE   35.20  .370  .379  330  378  4  8
  165 Mercer                 STHRN    34.71  .704  .373  434  306  9  3
  166 Georgia St             SUNBEL   34.22  .141  .367  237  454  1 11
  167 Pennsylvania           IVY      34.12  .568  .366  271  265  6  4
  168 Eastern Kentucky       UNITED   33.96  .424  .364  232  292  5  7
  169 New Hampshire          COASTA   33.86  .594  .362  323  297  8  5
  170 Weber St               PIONEE   33.43  .325  .357  277  460  4  8
  171 Idaho                  PIONEE   33.36  .384  .356  302  317  4  8
  172 Incarnate Word         STHLND   33.32  .447  .356  308  306  5  7
  173 Monmouth NJ            COASTA   33.06  .729  .352  480  333  9  3
  174 Eastern Washington     PIONEE   33.04  .424  .352  281  362  5  7
  175 Lafayette              OVC      32.65  .633  .347  403  345  8  4
  176 Alabama St             SWAC     31.36  .825  .331  509  257 10  2
  177 South Carolina St      MEAC     30.64  .694  .322  421  354 10  3
  178 Tennessee-Martin       BIGSKY   30.45  .474  .320  248  287  6  6
  179 Gardner-Webb           BIGSKY   30.41  .546  .320  330  357  7  5
  180 Northern Iowa          MOVAL    30.14  .287  .316  207  321  3  9
  181 Nicholls St            STHLND   29.90  .353  .313  219  299  4  8
  182 Brown                  IVY      29.89  .484  .313  265  270  5  5
  183 San Diego              PATR     29.87  .634  .313  341  292  8  4
  184 Northern Colorado      PIONEE   29.77  .363  .312  243  341  4  8
  185 Indiana St             MOVAL    29.57  .265  .309  254  475  3  9
  186 Drake                  PATR     28.80  .627  .300  304  212  8  4
  187 McNeese St             STHLND   28.63  .426  .298  282  306  5  7
  188 Lindenwood             BIGSKY   28.47  .493  .296  297  324  6  6
  189 Central Arkansas       UNITED   28.42  .307  .295  294  422  3  9
  190 Princeton              IVY      27.89  .362  .289  208  244  3  7
  191 East Tennessee St      STHRN    27.49  .589  .284  390  346  7  5
  192 Sacred Heart           DII      27.33  .599  .282  343  315  8  4
  193 Prairie View A&M       SWAC     26.88  .687  .277  442  250 10  4
  194 Presbyterian           PATR     26.68  .784  .275  413  194 10  2
  195 William & Mary         COASTA   26.67  .566  .274  354  308  7  5
  196 Central Conn St        NEC      26.60  .606  .274  347  298  8  5
  197 Jackson St             SWAC     25.92  .743  .266  394  225  9  3
  198 Richmond               OVC      25.86  .543  .265  263  272  7  5
  199 Stony Brook            COASTA   25.85  .524  .265  336  309  6  6
  200 St Thomas MN           PATR     25.78  .609  .264  371  246  7  5
  201 Colgate                OVC      25.75  .439  .264  340  372  5  7
  202 Charleston Southern    BIGSKY   25.49  .399  .261  199  288  5  7
  203 Maine                  COASTA   25.16  .510  .257  290  291  6  6
  204 Western Carolina       STHRN    25.15  .571  .257  463  402  7  5
  205 Cornell NY             IVY      25.13  .398  .256  210  260  4  6
  206 Duquesne               NEC      24.56  .565  .250  341  303  7  5
  207 Utah Tech              UNITED   24.42  .200  .248  192  352  2 10
  208 Holy Cross             OVC      24.15  .336  .245  246  297  3  9
  209 Elon                   COASTA   23.99  .510  .243  345  297  6  6
  210 Wofford                STHRN    23.93  .550  .243  274  207  6  6
  211 SE Missouri St         BIGSKY   23.87  .350  .242  278  361  4  8
  212 LIU                    NEC      23.52  .504  .238  197  226  6  6
  213 North Alabama          UNITED   23.21  .246  .234  303  470  2 10
  214 North Carolina Central MEAC     23.17  .653  .234  405  308  8  4
  215 Delaware St            MEAC     22.89  .637  .231  387  297  8  4
  216 Columbia               IVY      22.83  .244  .230  156  279  2  8
  217 Portland St            PIONEE   21.62  .107  .217  194  512  1 11
  218 Towson                 COASTA   21.29  .492  .213  321  301  6  6
  219 Western Illinois       BIGSKY   21.24  .343  .213  277  417  4  8
  220 Murray St              MOVAL    21.12  .112  .212  228  463  1 11
  221 Georgetown DC          OVC      20.82  .478  .208  253  320  6  6
  222 East Texas A&M         STHLND   20.80  .280  .208  307  478  3  9
  223 Mercyhurst             NEC      20.76  .415  .208  225  297  5  7
  224 Furman                 STHRN    20.71  .469  .207  293  372  6  6
  225 Eastern Illinois       BIGSKY   19.88  .288  .198  210  350  3  9
  226 Dayton                 PATR     19.60  .637  .195  306  191  7  4
  227 Chattanooga            STHRN    19.08  .406  .190  339  396  5  7
  228 Bucknell               OVC      18.04  .400  .180  313  409  5  7
  229 Butler                 PATR     17.99  .483  .179  274  304  6  6
  230 Stonehill              NEC      17.69  .354  .176  181  277  4  8
  231 Merrimack              DII      17.52  .369  .174  246  293  4  8
  232 The Citadel            STHRN    17.15  .386  .171  246  322  4  8
  233 Marist                 PATR     16.83  .456  .168  272  282  5  7
  234 Wagner                 NEC      15.78  .398  .158  197  294  5  7
  235 Texas Southern         SWAC     15.77  .517  .158  284  257  6  5
  236 Bethune-Cookman        SWAC     15.33  .482  .154  356  392  6  6
  237 Grambling St           SWAC     15.14  .543  .152  289  313  7  5
  238 Albany NY              COASTA   13.60  .201  .138  201  387  2 10
  239 Houston Christian      STHLND   13.24  .203  .135  202  363  2 10
  240 Bryant                 COASTA   12.36  .286  .128  270  364  3  9
  241 New Haven              NEC      11.77  .470  .123  279  286  5  5
  242 Campbell               COASTA   11.65  .249  .122  296  430  2 10
  243 Howard                 MEAC     11.46  .419  .121  238  295  5  7
  244 Morehead St            PATR     11.20  .452  .119  254  358  6  6
  245 Fordham                OVC      11.11  .138  .118  191  397  1 11
  246 Alcorn St              SWAC     10.90  .480  .116  291  278  5  7
  247 Tennessee St           BIGSKY   10.60  .223  .114  155  319  2 10
  248 Robert Morris          NEC      10.53  .296  .113  182  299  3  9
  249 Northwestern St        STHLND   10.14  .126  .110  126  499  1 11
  250 Massachusetts          MIDAME    9.26  .044  .104  133  463  0 12
  251 Morgan St              MEAC      8.91  .392  .101  280  319  4  8
  252 Alabama A&M            SWAC      8.83  .355  .101  281  401  4  8
  253 Florida A&M            SWAC      8.31  .400  .097  291  406  5  7
  254 North Carolina A&T     COASTA    7.72  .195  .093  246  523  2 10
  255 Arkansas-Pine Bluff    SWAC      6.20  .294  .083  209  390  3  8
  256 Samford                STHRN     2.69  .099  .063  175  455  1 11
  257 Davidson               PATR      2.47  .192  .062  218  475  2 10
  258 St Francis PA          NEC       1.92  .094  .059  115  319  0 11
  259 Southern U.            SWAC      1.83  .180  .059  223  433  2 10
  260 Mississippi Valley St  SWAC      0.48  .201  .053  220  464  2 10
  261 Hampton                COASTA   -0.25  .182  .049  215  440  2 10
  262 VMI                    STHRN    -0.54  .143  .048  191  451  1 11
  263 Stetson                PATR     -0.72  .253  .047  226  469  3  9
  264 Norfolk St             MEAC     -1.58  .163  .044  251  427  1 11
  265 Valparaiso             PATR     -1.83  .204  .043  244  427  2 10
  266 Non-Division I         DII     -10.58  .061  .018  678 2771  2 60
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Old Dominion      SUNBELT  24 Marshall          SUNBELT  48 0.142
   2 Alabama           SEC      17 Florida St        ACC      31 0.164
   3 Indiana St        MOVAL    24 South Dakota St   MOVAL    12 0.169
   4 Presbyterian      PATR     13 Davidson          PATR     14 0.174
   5 Fresno St         MTNWEST  21 Colorado St       MTNWEST  49 0.179
   6 Abilene Christian UNITED    7 Incarnate Word    STHLND   38 0.188
   7 Albany NY         COASTAL  31 Monmouth NJ       COASTAL  24 0.189
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings