Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Note: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here, and he includes other divisions.
             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 1651 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
              THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 20 DECEMBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Indiana                BIG10   102.06  .935  .984  545  141 13  0
    2 Ohio State             BIG10    98.01  .908  .976  454  106 12  1
    3 Texas Tech             BIG12    96.66  .924  .972  552  142 12  1
    4 Oregon                 BIG10    93.22  .874  .962  509  212 12  1
    5 Georgia                SEC      93.11  .863  .961  415  207 12  1
    6 Mississippi            SEC      88.64  .851  .943  488  251 12  1
    7 Brigham Young          BIG12    87.98  .778  .940  415  247 11  2
    8 Alabama                SEC      87.41  .733  .937  440  250 11  3
    9 Notre Dame             IND      87.05  .844  .936  504  211 10  2
   10 Utah                   BIG12    86.45  .820  .932  493  224 10  2
   11 Vanderbilt             SEC      85.57  .806  .928  473  263 10  2
   12 Oklahoma               SEC      85.43  .716  .927  341  201 10  3
   13 Miami FL               ACC      85.16  .823  .925  419  169 11  2
   14 Texas A&M              SEC      85.12  .784  .925  439  273 11  2
   15 Texas                  SEC      85.11  .703  .925  355  237  9  3
   16 Southern Cal           BIG10    82.39  .730  .909  438  269  9  3
   17 Iowa                   BIG10    80.22  .680  .894  347  182  8  4
   18 Michigan               BIG10    79.46  .690  .889  331  224  9  3
   19 Tennessee              SEC      78.35  .664  .880  489  345  8  4
   20 Missouri               SEC      78.32  .665  .880  386  233  8  4
   21 Arizona                BIG12    78.19  .729  .879  391  227  9  3
   22 Washington             BIG10    77.60  .694  .874  443  243  9  4
   23 Illinois               BIG10    77.34  .635  .872  352  279  8  4
   24 Arizona St             BIG12    75.81  .607  .859  296  276  8  4
   25 LSU                    SEC      75.63  .564  .858  262  220  7  5
   26 TCU                    BIG12    75.14  .643  .854  369  302  8  4
   27 Iowa St                BIG12    75.13  .632  .854  329  242  8  4
   28 Houston                BIG12    74.37  .692  .847  340  262  9  3
   29 Tulane                 AMER     73.65  .706  .840  388  335 11  3
   30 Louisville             ACC      73.34  .667  .837  362  253  8  4
   31 Pittsburgh             ACC      73.07  .656  .835  421  299  8  4
   32 Georgia Tech           ACC      73.02  .688  .834  397  300  9  3
   33 Penn State             BIG10    73.02  .564  .834  381  257  6  6
   34 Virginia               ACC      73.02  .727  .834  418  267 10  3
   35 James Madison          SUNBEL   73.01  .816  .834  519  257 12  2
   36 North Texas            AMER     72.94  .810  .834  582  324 11  2
   37 SMU                    ACC      72.54  .690  .830  395  248  8  4
   38 North Carolina St      ACC      72.25  .589  .827  393  353  8  5
   39 Cincinnati             BIG12    71.82  .576  .823  381  298  7  5
   40 Auburn                 SEC      71.25  .481  .817  321  248  5  7
   41 South Florida          AMER     71.17  .707  .816  526  304  9  4
   42 Duke                   ACC      70.71  .602  .812  442  373  8  5
   43 Florida                SEC      70.52  .366  .810  259  288  4  8
   44 Kansas St              BIG12    70.04  .532  .805  353  320  6  6
   45 Nebraska               BIG10    69.89  .556  .803  351  276  7  5
   46 Navy                   AMER     69.43  .727  .799  374  312 10  2
   47 Kentucky               SEC      69.34  .429  .798  276  317  5  7
   48 Northwestern           BIG10    69.33  .494  .798  270  251  6  6
   49 Mississippi St         SEC      69.30  .434  .797  366  350  5  7
   50 Minnesota              BIG10    69.05  .542  .795  279  281  7  5
   51 South Carolina         SEC      68.91  .392  .793  272  265  4  8
   52 Clemson                ACC      68.60  .604  .790  344  245  7  5
   53 Wisconsin              BIG10    68.24  .339  .786  154  259  4  8
   54 Wake Forest            ACC      68.12  .629  .785  322  258  8  4
   55 Old Dominion           SUNBEL   67.21  .739  .775  416  241 10  3
   56 Baylor                 BIG12    67.06  .430  .773  373  391  5  7
   57 Kansas                 BIG12    66.95  .453  .772  337  321  5  7
   58 Florida St             ACC      66.69  .481  .769  396  264  5  7
   59 East Carolina          AMER     66.63  .667  .769  402  244  8  4
   60 Rutgers                BIG10    65.24  .425  .753  344  382  5  7
   61 Boise St               MTNWES   65.06  .620  .751  418  337  9  5
   62 New Mexico             MTNWES   64.08  .684  .740  335  270  9  3
   63 West Virginia          BIG12    64.08  .352  .740  261  370  4  8
   64 Memphis                AMER     63.75  .621  .736  422  301  8  5
   65 San Diego St           MTNWES   63.59  .726  .734  296  151  9  3
   66 Washington St          IND      63.28  .538  .730  259  242  6  6
   67 California             ACC      63.20  .531  .730  298  318  7  5
   68 UNLV                   MTNWES   63.19  .704  .729  467  375 10  3
   69 Montana St             PIONEE   63.16  .836  .729  571  270 13  2
   70 Arkansas               SEC      63.02  .293  .727  395  406  2 10
   71 UCLA                   BIG10    62.84  .266  .725  218  401  3  9
   72 Colorado               BIG12    62.48  .297  .721  251  366  3  9
   73 Central Florida        BIG12    62.47  .436  .721  292  283  5  7
   74 North Dakota St        MOVAL    62.44  .907  .721  534  169 12  1
   75 Michigan St            BIG10    62.35  .362  .720  295  359  4  8
   76 Western Michigan       MIDAME   61.36  .671  .708  348  243 10  4
   77 Texas-San Antonio      AMER     60.42  .521  .696  405  355  6  6
   78 Hawai`i                MTNWES   60.36  .647  .696  342  282  8  4
   79 Maryland               BIG10    60.19  .389  .694  282  318  4  8
   80 Stanford               ACC      60.16  .334  .693  226  350  4  8
   81 Virginia Tech          ACC      59.71  .270  .688  257  362  3  9
   82 Army                   AMER     59.67  .504  .687  269  265  6  6
   83 Connecticut            IND      59.41  .712  .684  443  310  9  3
   84 Toledo                 MIDAME   59.07  .704  .680  379  146  8  4
   85 Kennesaw St            CUSA     58.96  .653  .679  374  357 10  4
   86 Utah St                MTNWES   58.17  .515  .669  381  339  6  6
   87 Fresno St              MTNWES   58.03  .627  .667  317  241  8  4
   88 Purdue                 BIG10    57.69  .224  .663  225  382  2 10
   89 Ohio U.                MIDAME   56.99  .646  .654  344  275  8  4
   90 Montana                PIONEE   56.96  .817  .654  615  381 13  2
   91 North Carolina         ACC      56.92  .369  .653  231  294  4  8
   92 Temple                 AMER     56.26  .429  .645  334  356  5  7
   93 Western Kentucky       CUSA     55.50  .636  .635  357  281  8  4
   94 Syracuse               ACC      55.21  .257  .632  242  419  3  9
   95 Louisiana Tech         CUSA     54.90  .593  .628  332  256  7  5
   96 Miami OH               MIDAME   54.81  .548  .627  326  286  7  6
   97 Troy                   SUNBEL   54.47  .543  .622  329  335  8  6
   98 Texas St-San Marcos    SUNBEL   54.24  .547  .620  433  367  6  6
   99 Tarleton St            UNITED   54.09  .834  .618  594  260 12  2
  100 Jacksonville St        CUSA     53.98  .596  .616  394  353  9  5
  101 Florida Int'l          CUSA     53.50  .561  .610  351  333  7  5
  102 Southern Miss          SUNBEL   53.47  .567  .610  358  329  7  5
  103 Coastal Carolina       SUNBEL   53.19  .475  .606  274  407  6  6
  104 Boston College         ACC      52.84  .246  .602  305  393  2 10
  105 Illinois St            MOVAL    52.71  .694  .600  489  402 12  4
  106 Georgia Southern       SUNBEL   52.70  .465  .600  334  410  6  6
  107 Arkansas St            SUNBEL   52.53  .509  .598  327  356  7  6
  108 Rice                   AMER     52.48  .387  .597  238  387  5  7
  109 Florida Atlantic       AMER     52.27  .360  .594  354  436  4  8
  110 Missouri St            CUSA     51.85  .508  .589  333  374  7  6
  111 Air Force              MTNWES   51.56  .391  .585  358  364  4  8
  112 Central Michigan       MIDAME   51.14  .576  .580  286  272  7  5
  113 Marshall               SUNBEL   50.98  .465  .578  369  363  5  7
  114 Delaware               CUSA     50.71  .512  .574  377  403  7  6
  115 Stephen F. Austin      STHLND   50.35  .758  .570  496  261 11  3
  116 North Dakota           MOVAL    49.88  .631  .563  461  278  8  6
  117 Louisiana-Lafayette    SUNBEL   49.78  .456  .562  338  380  6  7
  118 Alabama-Birmingham     AMER     49.52  .315  .559  317  459  4  8
  119 Tulsa                  AMER     49.21  .359  .555  278  347  4  8
  120 Lehigh                 OVC      48.70  .881  .548  413  181 12  1
  121 UC-Davis               PIONEE   48.58  .655  .547  421  392  9  4
  122 South Dakota St        MOVAL    48.01  .618  .539  400  307  9  5
  123 Appalachian St         SUNBEL   47.98  .437  .539  304  358  5  7
  124 Wyoming                MTNWES   47.59  .363  .534  192  246  4  8
  125 Villanova              COASTA   47.06  .731  .527  443  314 12  3
  126 South Dakota           MOVAL    47.03  .609  .527  407  395 10  5
  127 Nevada                 MTNWES   46.75  .287  .523  211  330  3  9
  128 South Alabama          SUNBEL   46.71  .375  .523  318  365  4  8
  129 Oklahoma St            BIG12    46.63  .148  .521  170  400  1 11
  130 San Jose St            MTNWES   46.56  .288  .521  257  390  3  9
  131 Abilene Christian      UNITED   46.35  .614  .518  414  370  9  5
  132 Liberty                CUSA     46.01  .389  .513  307  318  4  8
  133 Yale                   IVY      45.31  .717  .504  352  235  9  3
  134 Colorado St            MTNWES   45.23  .213  .503  222  370  2 10
  135 Youngstown St          MOVAL    44.88  .598  .499  476  403  8  5
  136 Southern Illinois      MOVAL    44.85  .606  .498  437  320  7  5
  137 Buffalo                MIDAME   43.99  .440  .487  288  282  5  7
  138 Idaho St               PIONEE   43.81  .505  .485  396  327  6  6
  139 Oregon St              IND      43.65  .222  .483  218  353  2 10
  140 Harvard                IVY      43.29  .786  .478  401  233  9  2
  141 Eastern Michigan       MIDAME   42.99  .359  .474  289  357  4  8
  142 New Mexico St          CUSA     42.96  .366  .474  259  331  4  8
  143 Ball St                MIDAME   42.95  .314  .474  190  358  4  8
  144 Tennessee Tech         BIGSKY   42.88  .799  .473  488  243 11  2
  145 Akron                  MIDAME   42.49  .427  .468  267  329  5  7
  146 SE Louisiana           STHLND   42.46  .681  .468  403  234  9  4
  147 Middle Tennessee St    CUSA     42.13  .293  .463  269  371  3  9
  148 Southern Utah          UNITED   41.67  .586  .457  405  355  7  5
  149 Kent St                MIDAME   41.60  .397  .457  255  403  5  7
  150 Bowling Green          MIDAME   41.53  .372  .456  246  291  4  8
  151 Louisiana-Monroe       SUNBEL   41.46  .269  .455  199  383  3  9
  152 Northern Arizona       PIONEE   40.72  .546  .445  380  375  7  5
  153 Sacramento St          PIONEE   40.60  .597  .444  405  315  7  5
  154 West Georgia           UNITED   40.28  .660  .440  281  233  8  3
  155 Austin Peay            UNITED   40.18  .588  .438  421  328  7  5
  156 Northern Illinois      MIDAME   39.23  .297  .426  205  292  3  9
  157 Lamar                  STHLND   38.85  .571  .421  292  299  8  5
  158 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND   38.49  .736  .417  475  226  9  3
  159 UTEP                   CUSA     37.92  .248  .409  280  365  2 10
  160 Rhode Island           COASTA   37.84  .741  .408  438  296 11  3
  161 Sam Houston St         CUSA     36.99  .179  .398  213  454  2 10
  162 Dartmouth              IVY      36.14  .637  .387  264  213  7  3
  163 UNC-Charlotte          AMER     36.07  .101  .386  172  436  1 11
  164 Cal Poly SLO           PIONEE   35.52  .370  .379  330  378  4  8
  165 Georgia St             SUNBEL   35.11  .141  .374  237  454  1 11
  166 Mercer                 STHRN    35.04  .704  .373  434  306  9  3
  167 Pennsylvania           IVY      34.43  .568  .365  271  265  6  4
  168 Eastern Kentucky       UNITED   34.19  .424  .362  232  292  5  7
  169 New Hampshire          COASTA   34.17  .594  .362  323  297  8  5
  170 Weber St               PIONEE   33.74  .325  .357  277  460  4  8
  171 Idaho                  PIONEE   33.66  .384  .356  302  317  4  8
  172 Incarnate Word         STHLND   33.53  .447  .354  308  306  5  7
  173 Eastern Washington     PIONEE   33.34  .424  .352  281  362  5  7
  174 Monmouth NJ            COASTA   33.32  .729  .352  480  333  9  3
  175 Lafayette              OVC      32.96  .633  .347  403  345  8  4
  176 Alabama St             SWAC     31.66  .825  .331  509  257 10  2
  177 South Carolina St      MEAC     30.98  .694  .322  421  354 10  3
  178 Tennessee-Martin       BIGSKY   30.79  .474  .320  248  287  6  6
  179 Gardner-Webb           BIGSKY   30.73  .546  .319  330  357  7  5
  180 Northern Iowa          MOVAL    30.43  .287  .316  207  321  3  9
  181 Brown                  IVY      30.20  .484  .313  265  270  5  5
  182 San Diego              PATR     30.18  .634  .313  341  292  8  4
  183 Nicholls St            STHLND   30.16  .353  .312  219  299  4  8
  184 Northern Colorado      PIONEE   30.06  .363  .311  243  341  4  8
  185 Indiana St             MOVAL    29.87  .265  .309  254  475  3  9
  186 Drake                  PATR     29.11  .627  .300  304  212  8  4
  187 McNeese St             STHLND   28.93  .426  .298  282  306  5  7
  188 Lindenwood             BIGSKY   28.89  .493  .297  297  324  6  6
  189 Central Arkansas       UNITED   28.65  .307  .294  294  422  3  9
  190 Princeton              IVY      28.19  .362  .289  208  244  3  7
  191 East Tennessee St      STHRN    27.81  .589  .284  390  346  7  5
  192 Sacred Heart           DII      27.65  .599  .282  343  315  8  4
  193 Prairie View A&M       SWAC     27.18  .687  .277  442  250 10  4
  194 Presbyterian           PATR     27.00  .784  .274  413  194 10  2
  195 William & Mary         COASTA   26.98  .566  .274  354  308  7  5
  196 Central Conn St        NEC      26.93  .606  .274  347  298  8  5
  197 Jackson St             SWAC     26.27  .743  .266  394  225  9  3
  198 Richmond               OVC      26.17  .543  .265  263  272  7  5
  199 Stony Brook            COASTA   26.16  .524  .265  336  309  6  6
  200 St Thomas MN           PATR     26.10  .609  .264  371  246  7  5
  201 Colgate                OVC      26.05  .439  .263  340  372  5  7
  202 Charleston Southern    BIGSKY   25.86  .399  .261  199  288  5  7
  203 Maine                  COASTA   25.47  .510  .257  290  291  6  6
  204 Western Carolina       STHRN    25.46  .571  .256  463  402  7  5
  205 Cornell NY             IVY      25.43  .398  .256  210  260  4  6
  206 Duquesne               NEC      24.90  .565  .250  341  303  7  5
  207 Utah Tech              UNITED   24.66  .200  .247  192  352  2 10
  208 Holy Cross             OVC      24.46  .336  .245  246  297  3  9
  209 Elon                   COASTA   24.29  .510  .243  345  297  6  6
  210 Wofford                STHRN    24.25  .550  .243  274  207  6  6
  211 SE Missouri St         BIGSKY   24.21  .350  .242  278  361  4  8
  212 LIU                    NEC      23.85  .504  .238  197  226  6  6
  213 North Carolina Central MEAC     23.48  .653  .234  405  308  8  4
  214 North Alabama          UNITED   23.43  .246  .233  303  470  2 10
  215 Delaware St            MEAC     23.20  .637  .231  387  297  8  4
  216 Columbia               IVY      23.14  .244  .230  156  279  2  8
  217 Portland St            PIONEE   21.91  .107  .217  194  512  1 11
  218 Towson                 COASTA   21.59  .492  .213  321  301  6  6
  219 Western Illinois       BIGSKY   21.58  .343  .213  277  417  4  8
  220 Murray St              MOVAL    21.49  .112  .212  228  463  1 11
  221 Georgetown DC          OVC      21.13  .478  .208  253  320  6  6
  222 Mercyhurst             NEC      21.09  .415  .208  225  297  5  7
  223 East Texas A&M         STHLND   21.07  .280  .207  307  478  3  9
  224 Furman                 STHRN    21.03  .469  .207  293  372  6  6
  225 Eastern Illinois       BIGSKY   20.22  .288  .199  210  350  3  9
  226 Dayton                 PATR     19.92  .637  .195  306  191  7  4
  227 Chattanooga            STHRN    19.39  .406  .190  339  396  5  7
  228 Bucknell               OVC      18.35  .400  .180  313  409  5  7
  229 Butler                 PATR     18.30  .483  .179  274  304  6  6
  230 Stonehill              NEC      18.01  .354  .176  181  277  4  8
  231 Merrimack              DII      17.84  .369  .174  246  293  4  8
  232 The Citadel            STHRN    17.47  .386  .171  246  322  4  8
  233 Marist                 PATR     17.14  .456  .168  272  282  5  7
  234 Wagner                 NEC      16.11  .398  .158  197  294  5  7
  235 Texas Southern         SWAC     16.08  .517  .158  284  257  6  5
  236 Bethune-Cookman        SWAC     15.65  .482  .154  356  392  6  6
  237 Grambling St           SWAC     15.45  .543  .152  289  313  7  5
  238 Albany NY              COASTA   13.90  .201  .138  201  387  2 10
  239 Houston Christian      STHLND   13.51  .203  .135  202  363  2 10
  240 Bryant                 COASTA   12.66  .286  .128  270  364  3  9
  241 New Haven              NEC      12.09  .470  .123  279  286  5  5
  242 Campbell               COASTA   11.95  .249  .122  296  430  2 10
  243 Howard                 MEAC     11.78  .419  .121  238  295  5  7
  244 Morehead St            PATR     11.51  .452  .119  254  358  6  6
  245 Fordham                OVC      11.42  .138  .118  191  397  1 11
  246 Alcorn St              SWAC     11.20  .480  .116  291  278  5  7
  247 Tennessee St           BIGSKY   10.94  .223  .114  155  319  2 10
  248 Robert Morris          NEC      10.86  .296  .113  182  299  3  9
  249 Northwestern St        STHLND   10.42  .126  .110  126  499  1 11
  250 Massachusetts          MIDAME    9.57  .044  .104  133  463  0 12
  251 Morgan St              MEAC      9.23  .392  .101  280  319  4  8
  252 Alabama A&M            SWAC      9.14  .355  .101  281  401  4  8
  253 Florida A&M            SWAC      8.62  .400  .097  291  406  5  7
  254 North Carolina A&T     COASTA    8.03  .195  .093  246  523  2 10
  255 Arkansas-Pine Bluff    SWAC      6.51  .294  .083  209  390  3  8
  256 Samford                STHRN     3.00  .099  .063  175  455  1 11
  257 Davidson               PATR      2.79  .192  .062  218  475  2 10
  258 St Francis PA          NEC       2.25  .094  .059  115  319  0 11
  259 Southern U.            SWAC      2.14  .180  .059  223  433  2 10
  260 Mississippi Valley St  SWAC      0.79  .201  .053  220  464  2 10
  261 Hampton                COASTA    0.06  .182  .049  215  440  2 10
  262 VMI                    STHRN    -0.23  .143  .048  191  451  1 11
  263 Stetson                PATR     -0.41  .253  .047  226  469  3  9
  264 Norfolk St             MEAC     -1.27  .163  .044  251  427  1 11
  265 Valparaiso             PATR     -1.52  .204  .043  244  427  2 10
  266 Non-Division I         DII     -10.27  .061  .018  678 2771  2 60
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Alabama           SEC      17 Florida St        ACC      31 0.121
   2 Old Dominion      SUNBELT  24 Marshall          SUNBELT  48 0.146
   3 Indiana St        MOVAL    24 South Dakota St   MOVAL    12 0.169
   4 Presbyterian      PATR     13 Davidson          PATR     14 0.174
   5 Albany NY         COASTAL  31 Monmouth NJ       COASTAL  24 0.189
   6 Abilene Christian UNITED    7 Incarnate Word    STHLND   38 0.190
   7 Fresno St         MTNWEST  21 Colorado St       MTNWEST  49 0.196
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings