Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
- the original text file
- rankings of all FBS teams, and within their conferences
- rankings of all FCS teams, and within their conferences
- a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Note 1: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here for now, and he includes other divisions.
Note 2: All teams start from scratch - there is no preseason "prior" applied to any team. So these ratings are not meaningful until teams have played 6-7 games, so if you're here early, be VERY warned!
|
Sunday, 18 October commentary: Now that teams have played 6-7 games, the Rothman rankings are in decent shape. If you compare my version of Rothman to Dr. Wolfe's reconstruction, I think he might have modified the formula just a little bit (a few teams float 1-2 places away from where I have them). No issues with the overall integrity of the rankings, though. |
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
BASED ON 1155 GAMES BETWEEN 267 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 31 OCTOBER 2026
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Team W L Rating PCT. RRE Conf.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Georgia 7 1 93.02 .857 .966 SEC
2 Alabama 6 2 92.51 .752 .964 SEC
3 Miami FL 8 0 90.43 .936 .958 ACC
4 Kentucky 7 1 90.12 .769 .956 SEC
5 LSU 6 2 89.42 .784 .954 SEC
6 Texas 6 2 88.63 .719 .951 SEC
7 Mississippi 6 2 87.73 .721 .948 SEC
8 Utah 8 0 87.46 .927 .947 B12
9 Tennessee 6 2 86.91 .749 .944 SEC
10 South Carolina 5 3 85.65 .633 .939 SEC
11 UCLA 8 0 84.76 .919 .935 B10
12 Florida 5 3 83.82 .588 .931 SEC
13 Notre Dame 7 1 82.51 .866 .925 FBSIND
14 Missouri 6 2 82.00 .734 .922 SEC
15 Ohio State 6 2 81.30 .752 .919 B10
16 Indiana 8 1 80.74 .829 .916 B10
17 Wake Forest 7 1 80.01 .821 .912 ACC
18 Mississippi St 4 4 79.96 .481 .912 SEC
19 Brigham Young 7 1 79.28 .794 .908 B12
20 Oklahoma 4 4 77.78 .487 .899 SEC
21 Texas Tech 7 1 77.40 .811 .897 B12
22 Auburn 4 4 76.70 .469 .893 SEC
23 Iowa 6 2 76.18 .717 .890 B10
24 Arizona 6 2 75.80 .750 .887 B12
25 Houston 6 2 75.09 .723 .883 B12
26 Texas A&M 4 4 73.71 .532 .874 SEC
27 Oregon 5 3 73.01 .610 .869 B10
28 Southern Cal 7 2 72.74 .711 .867 B10
29 Wisconsin 5 3 72.05 .606 .863 B10
30 Northwestern 6 2 71.51 .742 .859 B10
31 Minnesota 5 3 70.29 .576 .850 B10
32 Louisville 5 3 69.99 .661 .848 ACC
33 Michigan 5 3 69.51 .599 .844 B10
34 Boise St 7 1 69.30 .809 .843 PAC12
35 Oklahoma St 5 3 68.82 .650 .839 B12
36 Iowa St 4 4 67.81 .493 .831 B12
37 Cincinnati 5 3 67.72 .591 .830 B12
38 Clemson 5 3 67.28 .598 .827 ACC
39 Baylor 5 3 66.73 .670 .823 B12
40 Washington 5 3 66.37 .610 .820 B10
41 Nebraska 5 3 66.35 .679 .819 B10
42 North Carolina 4 4 66.26 .515 .819 ACC
43 Purdue 3 5 65.03 .413 .809 B10
44 Pittsburgh 6 3 64.72 .650 .806 ACC
45 West Virginia 5 3 64.55 .580 .805 B12
46 Texas-San Antonio 7 1 64.54 .765 .804 AMER
47 Duke 5 2 64.23 .727 .802 ACC
48 Arkansas 3 5 64.14 .380 .801 SEC
49 Penn State 4 4 63.70 .555 .797 B10
50 Illinois 5 3 63.48 .596 .795 B10
51 SMU 6 2 63.19 .715 .793 ACC
52 Central Florida 4 4 63.03 .504 .791 B12
53 New Mexico 7 1 62.90 .826 .790 MWC
54 TCU 4 4 61.99 .546 .782 B12
55 Virginia Tech 6 2 61.16 .718 .775 ACC
56 Vanderbilt 3 5 59.79 .378 .762 SEC
57 Arizona St 4 4 59.62 .484 .761 B12
58 Louisiana Tech 6 2 59.20 .685 .757 SUN
59 Florida St 3 5 58.93 .435 .754 ACC
60 Oregon St 5 3 57.85 .646 .744 PAC12
61 North Texas 6 2 57.78 .695 .743 AMER
62 Texas St-San Marcos 4 4 57.75 .542 .743 PAC12
63 Memphis 7 2 57.16 .740 .737 AMER
64 Colorado 3 5 56.85 .368 .734 B12
65 Virginia 4 4 56.77 .502 .733 ACC
66 Michigan St 2 6 56.32 .315 .729 B10
67 Syracuse 4 4 56.26 .497 .728 ACC
68 Kansas St 4 4 56.22 .539 .728 B12
69 North Carolina St 4 4 56.04 .511 .726 ACC
70 North Dakota St 7 2 56.03 .772 .726 MWC
71 Fresno St 5 3 55.44 .635 .720 PAC12
72 Kansas 3 5 55.28 .419 .719 B12
73 Boston College 4 4 54.96 .476 .715 ACC
74 Liberty 7 1 54.42 .840 .710 CUSA
75 Stanford 4 5 54.40 .393 .710 ACC
76 James Madison 7 2 53.55 .763 .701 SUN
77 Army 5 3 52.05 .602 .685 AMER
78 Western Michigan 6 3 51.97 .641 .685 MAC
79 South Florida 6 2 51.90 .725 .684 AMER
80 Toledo 6 2 51.37 .705 .678 MAC
81 California 3 6 51.11 .329 .675 ACC
82 Youngstown St 7 2 50.77 .741 .672 MOVAL
83 South Dakota St 7 2 50.56 .756 .670 MOVAL
84 Louisiana-Lafayette 5 3 50.10 .631 .665 SUN
85 UNLV 5 3 50.03 .590 .664 MWC
86 Tulane 4 4 49.97 .475 .663 AMER
87 Air Force 6 2 49.42 .693 .657 MWC
88 Georgia Tech 2 6 48.95 .304 .652 ACC
89 Ohio U. 6 2 48.77 .685 .650 MAC
90 Stephen F. Austin 9 0 48.47 .941 .647 STHLD
91 Jacksonville St 6 2 48.43 .680 .646 CUSA
92 Georgia Southern 4 4 48.39 .522 .646 SUN
93 Tulsa 4 4 48.10 .538 .643 AMER
94 San Diego St 4 5 47.01 .415 .631 PAC12
95 Florida Atlantic 5 3 46.77 .576 .628 AMER
96 Utah St 3 5 46.17 .399 .621 PAC12
97 South Alabama 4 4 45.97 .504 .619 SUN
98 Colorado St 3 5 45.75 .379 .616 PAC12
99 Montana St 8 1 45.32 .848 .612 SKY
100 Maryland 2 6 45.08 .316 .609 B10
101 Miami OH 5 3 44.60 .582 .603 MAC
102 South Dakota 7 3 44.02 .682 .597 MOVAL
103 Buffalo 5 3 43.72 .563 .593 MAC
104 Tarleton St 9 0 43.52 .898 .591 UAC
105 Appalachian St 5 3 43.25 .568 .588 SUN
106 Alabama-Birmingham 4 4 43.17 .472 .587 AMER
107 Connecticut 4 4 42.81 .556 .583 FBSIND
108 Rutgers 2 6 42.53 .305 .579 B10
109 Marshall 5 3 42.39 .538 .578 SUN
110 Arkansas St 4 4 42.28 .494 .576 SUN
111 Wyoming 5 3 41.96 .572 .573 MWC
112 Navy 2 6 41.90 .341 .572 AMER
113 Delaware 4 4 41.86 .518 .571 CUSA
114 Northern Arizona 7 2 41.02 .679 .562 SKY
115 East Carolina 4 4 41.00 .504 .561 AMER
116 Coastal Carolina 3 5 40.76 .432 .559 SUN
117 Central Michigan 3 5 40.13 .394 .551 MAC
118 North Dakota 6 4 39.66 .621 .545 MOVAL
119 Nevada 3 5 39.47 .428 .543 MWC
120 Florida Int'l 3 5 39.00 .438 .538 CUSA
121 Middle Tennessee St 4 4 38.69 .477 .534 CUSA
122 Georgia St 4 4 38.68 .531 .534 SUN
123 San Jose St 4 5 38.60 .448 .533 MWC
124 Troy 4 4 38.32 .487 .529 SUN
125 Tennessee Tech 8 1 37.91 .804 .524 SOCON
126 Austin Peay 7 2 37.85 .751 .524 UAC
127 Lamar 7 2 37.20 .732 .516 STHLD
128 Eastern Michigan 4 5 36.90 .449 .512 MAC
129 Washington St 1 8 36.53 .202 .508 PAC12
130 Bowling Green 2 7 35.88 .288 .500 MAC
131 Harvard 6 1 35.88 .787 .500 IVY
132 Southern Miss 3 5 35.71 .391 .498 SUN
133 Massachusetts 4 4 35.71 .540 .498 MAC
134 Illinois St 7 2 35.64 .750 .497 MOVAL
135 Temple 2 6 35.11 .333 .491 AMER
136 Rice 1 7 34.86 .225 .487 AMER
137 Ball St 3 5 34.39 .359 .482 MAC
138 Hawai`i 2 6 34.34 .315 .481 MWC
139 Montana 6 3 33.82 .661 .475 SKY
140 Northern Iowa 4 4 33.26 .509 .468 MOVAL
141 Incarnate Word 5 4 33.23 .595 .467 STHLD
142 Kennesaw St 2 6 32.87 .338 .463 CUSA
143 Campbell 7 2 32.80 .716 .462 COAS
144 Kent St 3 6 32.49 .341 .458 MAC
145 East Tennessee St 6 3 32.36 .656 .457 SOCON
146 Old Dominion 2 7 31.93 .263 .451 SUN
147 Abilene Christian 5 4 31.66 .522 .448 UAC
148 Idaho St 6 3 31.62 .671 .448 SKY
149 Monmouth NJ 7 2 31.50 .681 .446 COAS
150 Missouri St 3 5 31.22 .390 .443 CUSA
151 Albany NY 6 3 31.19 .662 .442 COAS
152 Weber St 6 4 30.67 .588 .436 SKY
153 Mercer 7 2 30.61 .720 .435 SOCON
154 Idaho 4 5 30.46 .452 .433 SKY
155 Princeton 5 2 30.18 .661 .430 IVY
156 New Mexico St 3 5 29.87 .387 .426 CUSA
157 Southern Illinois 4 5 29.09 .435 .416 MOVAL
158 Western Kentucky 3 5 28.54 .376 .410 CUSA
159 Chattanooga 6 3 28.50 .668 .409 SOCON
160 UNC-Charlotte 1 7 27.26 .182 .394 AMER
161 North Alabama 5 4 26.41 .541 .383 UAC
162 Western Carolina 4 5 26.32 .456 .382 SOCON
163 Louisiana-Monroe 1 7 26.19 .181 .380 SUN
164 Lehigh 7 2 26.00 .741 .378 PATR
165 Brown 4 3 25.74 .588 .375 IVY
166 Dartmouth 4 3 25.23 .558 .369 IVY
167 Southern Utah 3 6 25.02 .404 .366 SKY
168 West Florida 4 3 24.84 .546 .364 UAC
169 Cornell NY 3 4 24.50 .476 .360 IVY
170 Colgate 5 4 24.47 .587 .359 PATR
171 UC-Davis 5 4 24.34 .529 .358 SKY
172 Central Conn St 5 3 24.16 .613 .355 NEC
173 Houston Christian 4 5 24.08 .435 .354 STHLD
174 SE Missouri St 5 4 23.83 .522 .351 OVC
175 Sacramento St 2 7 23.71 .249 .350 MAC
176 SE Louisiana 4 5 22.97 .441 .341 STHLD
177 UTEP 1 7 22.70 .156 .338 MWC
178 Eastern Washington 2 7 22.18 .271 .331 SKY
179 Wofford 5 4 22.01 .557 .329 SOCON
180 Yale 4 3 22.01 .581 .329 IVY
181 Akron 1 7 21.18 .183 .319 MAC
182 Eastern Kentucky 3 6 21.01 .349 .317 UAC
183 Indiana St 2 7 20.47 .273 .311 MOVAL
184 Western Illinois 5 4 20.33 .560 .309 OVC
185 Gardner-Webb 3 6 20.13 .405 .306 OVC
186 Portland St 2 7 20.10 .231 .306 SKY
187 Bryant 5 4 20.09 .513 .306 COAS
188 Rhode Island 5 4 19.87 .526 .303 COAS
189 Sam Houston St 1 7 19.79 .216 .302 CUSA
190 Richmond 6 3 19.49 .591 .299 PATR
191 Stony Brook 5 4 19.42 .546 .298 COAS
192 Northern Illinois 0 8 18.92 .071 .292 MWC
193 South Carolina St 7 2 18.74 .761 .290 MEAC
194 Samford 3 6 18.54 .355 .288 SOCON
195 Lindenwood 4 4 18.12 .494 .283 OVC
196 Holy Cross 4 5 18.00 .443 .281 PATR
197 Charleston Southern 4 5 17.79 .469 .279 OVC
198 Northern Colorado 3 6 17.76 .371 .279 SKY
199 Eastern Illinois 3 6 17.67 .363 .277 OVC
200 Texas-Rio Grande Valley 4 5 17.44 .454 .275 STHLD
201 Cal Poly SLO 4 6 17.25 .389 .273 SKY
202 Villanova 5 4 17.16 .543 .272 PATR
203 Columbia 4 3 16.46 .489 .264 IVY
204 Dayton 7 1 16.42 .799 .263 PION
205 The Citadel 2 7 16.24 .235 .261 SOCON
206 McNeese St 4 5 16.22 .433 .261 STHLD
207 Duquesne 4 4 15.84 .503 .257 NEC
208 Pennsylvania 3 4 15.68 .441 .255 IVY
209 Alabama A&M 7 2 15.68 .773 .255 SWAC
210 St Thomas MN 7 2 15.43 .726 .252 PION
211 Butler 7 2 14.91 .727 .246 PION
212 Furman 2 7 14.80 .325 .245 SOCON
213 Georgetown DC 3 4 14.03 .423 .236 PATR
214 East Texas A&M 3 6 13.94 .344 .235 STHLD
215 Central Arkansas 2 7 12.49 .295 .220 UAC
216 Stonehill 4 5 12.33 .441 .218 NEC
217 North Carolina Central 4 5 12.16 .473 .216 MEAC
218 Sacred Heart 4 4 11.98 .476 .214 FCSIND
219 Merrimack 4 5 11.90 .408 .213 FCSIND
220 Utah Tech 1 8 11.84 .163 .213 SKY
221 North Carolina A&T 4 5 11.74 .427 .212 COAS
222 Prairie View A&M 4 5 11.65 .438 .211 SWAC
223 Jackson St 6 2 11.39 .716 .208 SWAC
224 Morgan St 5 4 11.13 .517 .206 MEAC
225 Tennessee-Martin 3 6 10.90 .334 .203 OVC
226 Howard 4 5 10.65 .429 .201 MEAC
227 LIU 3 6 10.45 .328 .199 NEC
228 Delaware St 5 4 10.15 .512 .196 MEAC
229 William & Mary 3 6 9.81 .307 .192 PATR
230 Fordham 2 7 9.50 .242 .189 PATR
231 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 5 3 9.37 .618 .188 SWAC
232 Alcorn St 5 4 9.21 .558 .186 SWAC
233 Lafayette 3 5 9.18 .389 .186 PATR
234 San Diego 4 5 8.74 .417 .182 PION
235 New Hampshire 2 7 8.74 .265 .182 COAS
236 Elon 4 5 8.48 .474 .179 COAS
237 Nicholls St 3 6 8.37 .310 .178 STHLD
238 Bethune-Cookman 5 4 8.33 .519 .178 SWAC
239 Murray St 1 8 7.61 .123 .171 MOVAL
240 Grambling St 4 4 7.45 .498 .169 SWAC
241 Alabama St 4 4 7.38 .547 .169 SWAC
242 West Georgia 1 8 6.85 .163 .164 UAC
243 Robert Morris 4 5 6.11 .464 .157 NEC
244 New Haven 2 7 4.71 .238 .145 NEC
245 Texas Southern 3 5 4.66 .362 .145 SWAC
246 Norfolk St 4 5 3.67 .497 .137 MEAC
247 Tennessee St 2 7 3.39 .253 .134 OVC
248 Valparaiso 4 4 3.13 .520 .132 PION
249 Maine 1 8 2.83 .194 .130 COAS
250 Southern U. 4 5 2.66 .462 .129 SWAC
251 Towson 1 8 2.27 .233 .126 COAS
252 Marist 4 5 1.87 .488 .123 PION
253 Presbyterian 4 5 -0.66 .417 .105 PION
254 Mercyhurst 1 8 -1.63 .188 .098 NEC
255 Bucknell 1 8 -1.87 .198 .097 PATR
256 Florida A&M 2 7 -3.06 .262 .090 SWAC
257 Drake 3 6 -3.72 .371 .086 PION
258 Wagner 1 8 -4.96 .167 .079 NEC
259 Mississippi Valley St 3 6 -6.38 .293 .071 SWAC
260 Hampton 1 8 -10.44 .146 .053 COAS
261 Chicago St 2 7 -12.94 .251 .044 NEC
262 Stetson 1 8 -14.76 .179 .038 PION
263 Davidson 3 6 -15.83 .314 .035 PION
264 Morehead St 2 7 -16.06 .271 .034 PION
265 Northwestern St 0 9 -16.65 .077 .033 STHLD
266 Non-Division I 6 61 -17.93 .111 .029 NON-D1
267 VMI 0 9 -21.80 .054 .021 SOCON
Explanations:
These rankings use the method developed by David Rothman (1935-2004),
founder of the Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and
Tournaments (FACT). David's work was a part of college football's
Bowl Championship Series for multiple years. His formula considers
only margin of victory for in-season games (past data, date of game,
and location are ignored).
David's original code was written in BASIC in the 1970s -- the copy
that I have is from November 1990 -- and I have rewritten it in
Python to match the original numbers exactly. The only differences
should be in the formatting of the output.
Columns:
Rating: measures a team's strength by balancing their results against
opponent quality. Ratings are iteratively adjusted until the system
reaches a best fit across the entire season. Includes game scores,
but transformed with a logistic function to give diminishing returns
for blowouts or for running up the score.
Pct: the normalized margin-of-victory for a team's games. Effectively
how well did you perform in games, not counting quality of opponent.
Again, though, Rothman's formula is set up so that blowouts do not add
additional information.
RRE: a team's expected win percentage if we were able to play a full
round-robin schedule among all the teams listed. It's functionally
the same as the Rating, just expressed in a different way.
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT Rankings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF SEASON 1 Oklahoma St B12 10 Tulsa AMER 24 0.16 2 St Thomas MN PION 21 Presbyterian PION 55 0.17 3 Dayton PION 22 Drake PION 30 0.22 4 Tennessee Tech SOCON 20 Western Carolina SOCON 44 0.27 5 Idaho St SKY 29 Utah St PAC12 17 0.29 6 Brigham Young B12 31 Central Florida B12 39 0.30 7 Furman SOCON 20 Mercer SOCON 13 0.32 |
More Details
I've preserved David's original BASIC source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, or 49-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
But on this site...
...I use a version of his code that I developed in Python. Why? So that I can run it in my modern workflow. The numbers reproduce exactly (I've checked in multiple sports), even with over 15,000 games, so I hope that David wouldn't take offense to modernizing the hardware. But I have made sure that I absolutely preserve his math.
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