Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
the original text file, and at the very bottom, below the list of teams, a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
rankings of teams in all FBS conferences (new!)
rankings of teams in all FCS conferences (new!)
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored. He did not include previous season information either, so it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something meaningful.
Ratings will normally be updated every Sunday morning/afternoon. Note: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here, and he includes other divisions.
             < DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 1065 GAMES BETWEEN 266 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
               THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 25 OCTOBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L
 
    1 Ohio State             BIG10   101.04  .960  .980  255   41  7  0
    2 Indiana                BIG10    97.83  .949  .972  363   87  8  0
    3 Texas A&M              SEC      95.65  .900  .965  302  189  8  0
    4 Miami FL               ACC      91.67  .825  .950  238   99  6  1
    5 Georgia                SEC      91.42  .810  .949  236  137  6  1
    6 Alabama                SEC      91.31  .796  .949  275  146  7  1
    7 Brigham Young          BIG12    90.14  .901  .943  290  136  8  0
    8 Notre Dame             IND      89.97  .750  .942  274  149  5  2
    9 Vanderbilt             SEC      89.08  .833  .938  307  150  7  1
   10 Texas Tech             BIG12    88.94  .887  .937  349   99  7  1
   11 Mississippi            SEC      88.08  .787  .933  296  184  7  1
   12 Louisville             ACC      84.81  .808  .914  242  150  6  1
   13 Utah                   BIG12    84.72  .772  .914  311  114  6  2
   14 Oregon                 BIG10    84.43  .853  .912  330  108  7  1
   15 Georgia Tech           ACC      83.52  .894  .906  288  160  8  0
   16 Missouri               SEC      83.23  .744  .904  283  134  6  2
   17 Oklahoma               SEC      82.77  .735  .901  227  100  6  2
   18 Texas                  SEC      82.14  .726  .897  232  117  6  2
   19 Tennessee              SEC      81.77  .727  .895  365  247  6  2
   20 Washington             BIG10    81.35  .719  .892  284  167  6  2
   21 South Florida          AMER     81.32  .741  .891  323  195  6  2
   22 LSU                    SEC      81.12  .613  .890  204  151  5  3
   23 Houston                BIG12    80.73  .793  .887  230  149  7  1
   24 Illinois               BIG10    80.70  .600  .887  263  220  5  3
   25 Southern Cal           BIG10    80.55  .734  .886  297  162  5  2
   26 North Dakota St        MOVAL    79.83  .984  .881  343   77  8  0
   27 Michigan               BIG10    78.78  .707  .873  232  139  6  2
   28 Tulane                 AMER     78.58  .748  .871  181  156  6  1
   29 Virginia               ACC      78.18  .796  .868  297  179  7  1
   30 Florida                SEC      78.07  .440  .867  157  140  3  4
   31 Cincinnati             BIG12    77.82  .826  .865  306  152  7  1
   32 Iowa                   BIG10    76.96  .750  .858  250  105  6  2
   33 Auburn                 SEC      76.89  .540  .858  198  149  4  4
   34 Arizona St             BIG12    76.28  .581  .853  198  194  5  3
   35 Iowa St                BIG12    75.10  .599  .843  232  174  5  3
   36 North Texas            AMER     74.45  .821  .837  369  200  7  1
   37 Mississippi St         SEC      74.04  .536  .834  261  187  4  4
   38 Memphis                AMER     73.75  .827  .831  301  159  7  1
   39 Duke                   ACC      73.47  .593  .829  237  180  4  3
   40 TCU                    BIG12    73.29  .717  .827  277  201  6  2
   41 Boise St               MTNWES   72.94  .728  .824  282  186  6  2
   42 Nebraska               BIG10    72.92  .699  .824  280  157  6  2
   43 Pittsburgh             ACC      72.78  .746  .822  322  176  6  2
   44 Arizona                BIG12    72.77  .600  .822  221  142  4  3
   45 South Carolina         SEC      71.62  .416  .812  163  169  3  5
   46 Wake Forest            ACC      71.46  .671  .810  187  132  5  2
   47 Colorado               BIG12    70.84  .408  .804  181  219  3  5
   48 North Carolina St      ACC      70.29  .490  .799  244  239  4  4
   49 Florida St             ACC      69.96  .511  .796  278  158  3  4
   50 Kansas St              BIG12    69.65  .552  .793  248  206  4  4
   51 Tarleton St            UNITED   69.52  .953  .792  408  146  9  0
   52 East Carolina          AMER     69.27  .603  .789  212  120  4  3
   53 James Madison          SUNBEL   69.25  .818  .789  226  109  6  1
   54 Arkansas               SEC      69.19  .366  .789  284  262  2  6
   55 Navy                   AMER     68.12  .883  .778  261  161  7  0
   56 SMU                    ACC      68.11  .658  .778  251  171  5  3
   57 Baylor                 BIG12    67.83  .498  .775  274  261  4  4
   58 Northwestern           BIG10    67.76  .591  .775  180  134  5  3
   59 Washington St          IND      67.53  .513  .772  172  197  4  4
   60 Kansas                 BIG12    67.33  .521  .770  244  207  4  4
   61 Minnesota              BIG10    66.58  .575  .763  191  174  5  3
   62 Kennesaw St            CUSA     66.29  .687  .760  177  149  5  2
   63 San Diego St           MTNWES   65.08  .820  .747  207   73  6  1
   64 Maryland               BIG10    64.77  .630  .744  198  121  4  3
   65 Army                   AMER     64.61  .461  .742  167  168  3  4
   66 UNLV                   MTNWES   64.44  .740  .740  260  234  6  1
   67 Rutgers                BIG10    63.31  .492  .728  251  245  4  4
   68 Kentucky               SEC      63.20  .328  .727  169  211  2  5
   69 Central Florida        BIG12    62.34  .596  .718  215  120  4  3
   70 Penn State             BIG10    62.19  .542  .716  238  136  3  4
   71 Virginia Tech          ACC      62.11  .376  .715  203  239  3  5
   72 UCLA                   BIG10    62.05  .373  .715  163  248  3  5
   73 Clemson                ACC      61.92  .488  .713  182  146  3  4
   74 South Dakota St        MOVAL    60.69  .812  .700  246  140  7  1
   75 Syracuse               ACC      60.51  .372  .698  203  250  3  5
   76 Old Dominion           SUNBEL   60.49  .598  .698  256  205  5  3
   77 Hawai`i                MTNWES   60.36  .707  .696  229  186  6  2
   78 Montana                PIONEE   60.06  .911  .693  332  193  8  0
   79 Temple                 AMER     59.86  .607  .691  269  208  5  3
   80 Stanford               ACC      59.48  .348  .686  140  236  3  5
   81 Wisconsin              BIG10    59.23  .273  .684  100  191  2  6
   82 New Mexico             MTNWES   58.94  .602  .680  232  198  5  3
   83 California             ACC      58.62  .579  .677  200  195  5  3
   84 Louisiana Tech         CUSA     58.58  .589  .676  174  131  4  3
   85 Southern Miss          SUNBEL   58.56  .711  .676  264  197  6  2
   86 North Dakota           MOVAL    58.38  .787  .674  320  149  6  2
   87 Michigan St            BIG10    57.26  .375  .661  210  260  3  5
   88 Troy                   SUNBEL   57.07  .684  .659  233  194  6  2
   89 Montana St             PIONEE   56.62  .751  .654  268  140  6  2
   90 Purdue                 BIG10    56.53  .310  .653  183  222  2  6
   91 Harvard                IVY      55.79  .983  .644  259   69  6  0
   92 West Virginia          BIG12    55.22  .283  .638  164  239  2  6
   93 Utah St                MTNWES   54.51  .481  .629  252  254  4  4
   94 Coastal Carolina       SUNBEL   54.28  .524  .627  133  198  4  3
   95 Wyoming                MTNWES   54.16  .507  .625  168  158  4  4
   96 UC-Davis               PIONEE   54.15  .780  .625  231  207  6  1
   97 Marshall               SUNBEL   54.11  .589  .625  246  216  4  3
   98 Miami OH               MIDAME   54.05  .610  .624  208  171  5  3
   99 Ohio U.                MIDAME   54.03  .617  .624  234  198  5  3
  100 Alabama-Birmingham     AMER     53.21  .387  .614  208  272  3  4
  101 Western Kentucky       CUSA     52.51  .666  .606  236  189  6  2
  102 Western Michigan       MIDAME   52.39  .512  .604  177  150  4  4
  103 Texas-San Antonio      AMER     52.34  .445  .604  224  216  3  4
  104 Fresno St              MTNWES   52.27  .563  .603  205  189  5  3
  105 Florida Atlantic       AMER     52.02  .382  .600  242  290  3  5
  106 Missouri St            CUSA     51.83  .516  .598  154  195  4  3
  107 Toledo                 MIDAME   51.80  .569  .597  254  128  4  4
  108 Air Force              MTNWES   51.77  .352  .597  254  261  2  5
  109 Lehigh                 OVC      51.76  .934  .597  258  125  8  0
  110 Tennessee Tech         BIGSKY   51.25  .977  .591  404  123  8  0
  111 Arkansas St            SUNBEL   51.15  .469  .589  189  228  4  4
  112 Connecticut            IND      50.96  .640  .587  294  196  5  3
  113 Texas St-San Marcos    SUNBEL   50.38  .493  .580  253  219  3  4
  114 Delaware               CUSA     49.83  .546  .574  204  198  4  3
  115 Central Michigan       MIDAME   49.76  .599  .573  196  192  5  3
  116 Rice                   AMER     48.81  .470  .561  173  224  4  4
  117 North Carolina         ACC      48.77  .346  .561  128  167  2  5
  118 Florida Int'l          CUSA     48.62  .417  .559  157  211  3  4
  119 San Jose St            MTNWES   48.24  .348  .554  169  205  2  5
  120 Appalachian St         SUNBEL   47.88  .501  .550  216  221  4  4
  121 Jacksonville St        CUSA     47.86  .561  .550  215  186  4  3
  122 Colorado St            MTNWES   47.41  .286  .544  153  217  2  6
  123 SE Louisiana           STHLND   47.07  .735  .540  281  152  6  2
  124 Tulsa                  AMER     47.02  .300  .539  176  237  2  6
  125 Lamar                  STHLND   46.73  .765  .536  207  178  7  1
  126 Louisiana-Monroe       SUNBEL   46.44  .356  .532  138  265  3  5
  127 Southern Illinois      MOVAL    46.00  .624  .527  284  205  5  3
  128 Georgia Southern       SUNBEL   45.84  .393  .525  230  283  3  5
  129 Bowling Green          MIDAME   45.30  .385  .518  161  203  3  5
  130 South Alabama          SUNBEL   44.14  .324  .504  202  236  2  6
  131 Stephen F. Austin      STHLND   43.50  .730  .496  248  134  6  2
  132 Liberty                CUSA     43.07  .430  .491  134  151  3  4
  133 Akron                  MIDAME   42.99  .354  .490  169  261  3  6
  134 Oregon St              IND      42.93  .200  .489  169  262  1  7
  135 Ball St                MIDAME   42.85  .355  .488  131  238  3  5
  136 Louisiana-Lafayette    SUNBEL   42.72  .313  .487  188  242  2  6
  137 New Mexico St          CUSA     42.35  .455  .482  155  168  3  4
  138 Northern Arizona       PIONEE   42.16  .556  .480  236  255  5  3
  139 Boston College         ACC      41.92  .211  .477  214  275  1  7
  140 Youngstown St          MOVAL    41.60  .596  .473  273  223  5  3
  141 Yale                   IVY      41.05  .690  .466  180  102  4  2
  142 Oklahoma St            BIG12    40.89  .153  .464  116  311  1  7
  143 Buffalo                MIDAME   40.80  .503  .463  195  173  4  4
  144 Cal Poly SLO           PIONEE   40.34  .392  .458  208  242  3  5
  145 Austin Peay            UNITED   39.49  .630  .447  289  196  5  3
  146 Dartmouth              IVY      39.40  .750  .446  182  116  5  1
  147 Abilene Christian      UNITED   39.25  .491  .444  214  233  4  4
  148 Northern Illinois      MIDAME   39.22  .289  .444  107  177  2  6
  149 Illinois St            MOVAL    39.11  .587  .442  242  232  5  3
  150 Nevada                 MTNWES   39.02  .197  .441  112  220  1  7
  151 Sacramento St          PIONEE   38.82  .529  .439  268  227  4  4
  152 Texas-Rio Grande Valle STHLND   38.80  .759  .439  369  137  6  2
  153 Kent St                MIDAME   38.69  .352  .437  149  292  3  5
  154 Monmouth NJ            COASTA   38.62  .823  .436  345  242  7  1
  155 South Dakota           MOVAL    38.31  .523  .432  197  237  5  4
  156 UTEP                   CUSA     38.14  .342  .430  147  169  2  5
  157 West Georgia           UNITED   37.98  .604  .428  234  216  6  3
  158 Pennsylvania           IVY      37.69  .614  .425  166  154  4  2
  159 Middle Tennessee St    CUSA     37.61  .208  .424  130  208  1  6
  160 Southern Utah          UNITED   37.20  .447  .419  281  266  3  5
  161 UNC-Charlotte          AMER     36.70  .141  .413  140  298  1  7
  162 Eastern Michigan       MIDAME   35.57  .269  .399  217  296  2  7
  163 Villanova              COASTA   35.23  .689  .394  245  202  6  2
  164 Idaho St               PIONEE   33.71  .306  .376  263  255  2  6
  165 Mercer                 STHRN    33.16  .813  .369  253  105  6  1
  166 Gardner-Webb           BIGSKY   32.77  .560  .364  228  263  5  3
  167 Central Arkansas       UNITED   32.67  .406  .363  194  270  3  5
  168 Rhode Island           COASTA   32.56  .731  .362  268  187  7  2
  169 Drake                  PATR     31.56  .686  .349  219  119  5  2
  170 Eastern Kentucky       UNITED   31.48  .361  .348  138  225  3  5
  171 Georgia St             SUNBEL   30.47  .171  .336  163  326  1  7
  172 Lafayette              OVC      30.40  .603  .335  256  220  5  3
  173 Idaho                  PIONEE   30.06  .437  .331  217  197  3  5
  174 Princeton              IVY      29.97  .484  .330  158  174  3  3
  175 Northern Colorado      PIONEE   29.70  .427  .327  195  197  3  5
  176 Alabama St             SWAC     29.14  .741  .320  293  168  5  2
  177 Indiana St             MOVAL    28.89  .267  .317  164  332  2  6
  178 New Hampshire          COASTA   28.85  .549  .317  211  202  5  4
  179 Presbyterian           PATR     28.85  .808  .317  305  132  7  1
  180 Tennessee-Martin       BIGSKY   28.66  .360  .314  161  226  3  5
  181 SE Missouri St         BIGSKY   28.26  .369  .310  202  264  3  5
  182 Jackson St             SWAC     28.12  .708  .308  235  149  5  2
  183 Prairie View A&M       SWAC     28.10  .677  .308  190  138  6  2
  184 Northern Iowa          MOVAL    28.07  .277  .307  112  193  2  6
  185 Eastern Washington     PIONEE   28.03  .475  .307  183  248  4  4
  186 Nicholls St            STHLND   27.90  .274  .305  115  205  2  6
  187 San Diego              PATR     27.89  .470  .305  196  237  4  4
  188 Incarnate Word         STHLND   27.80  .294  .304  208  266  2  6
  189 Lindenwood             BIGSKY   27.63  .351  .302  169  262  3  5
  190 Sacred Heart           DII      27.39  .551  .299  200  214  5  3
  191 Sam Houston St         CUSA     26.42  .066  .288  119  272  0  7
  192 Stony Brook            COASTA   26.36  .513  .287  215  211  4  4
  193 Duquesne               NEC      25.99  .568  .283  272  224  5  4
  194 Weber St               PIONEE   25.95  .361  .282  195  297  3  5
  195 William & Mary         COASTA   25.64  .484  .279  211  232  4  4
  196 Brown                  IVY      25.43  .492  .276  155  151  3  3
  197 Western Carolina       STHRN    25.33  .591  .275  298  267  5  3
  198 Central Conn St        NEC      25.14  .617  .273  210  188  5  3
  199 Utah Tech              UNITED   25.09  .192  .272  138  232  1  7
  200 Delaware St            MEAC     24.74  .624  .268  303  224  5  3
  201 Maine                  COASTA   24.52  .514  .266  187  185  4  4
  202 South Carolina St      MEAC     24.10  .585  .261  241  230  5  3
  203 North Alabama          UNITED   23.92  .293  .259  219  315  2  6
  204 Texas Southern         SWAC     23.82  .547  .258  187  145  4  3
  205 East Texas A&M         STHLND   23.71  .303  .256  222  319  2  6
  206 Charleston Southern    BIGSKY   23.56  .331  .255  155  248  3  6
  207 Stonehill              NEC      23.38  .373  .253  120  187  3  5
  208 North Carolina Central MEAC     23.27  .621  .252  279  218  5  3
  209 Grambling St           SWAC     23.09  .566  .249  202  225  5  3
  210 Colgate                OVC      22.27  .428  .240  230  247  3  5
  211 Furman                 STHRN    22.26  .573  .240  195  216  5  3
  212 St Thomas MN           PATR     22.09  .672  .238  290  148  5  3
  213 East Tennessee St      STHRN    22.05  .486  .238  272  271  4  5
  214 Merrimack              DII      21.72  .396  .234  131  161  3  5
  215 Mercyhurst             NEC      21.22  .350  .229  154  234  3  6
  216 Butler                 PATR     20.59  .563  .222  191  200  5  3
  217 Elon                   COASTA   20.37  .467  .220  239  222  4  5
  218 Eastern Illinois       BIGSKY   20.35  .400  .220  169  204  3  5
  219 LIU                    NEC      20.23  .399  .218  127  185  3  5
  220 Georgetown DC          OVC      19.98  .581  .216  208  206  5  3
  221 Dayton                 PATR     19.90  .729  .215  245  132  6  2
  222 Columbia               IVY      19.89  .193  .215   74  180  1  5
  223 Richmond               OVC      19.84  .484  .214  159  178  4  4
  224 Chattanooga            STHRN    19.48  .468  .210  236  235  4  4
  225 McNeese St             STHLND   18.66  .291  .202  163  236  2  6
  226 Wofford                STHRN    18.46  .372  .200  145  154  2  6
  227 The Citadel            STHRN    18.23  .412  .198  171  205  3  5
  228 Cornell NY             IVY      18.17  .342  .197  125  173  2  4
  229 Holy Cross             OVC      18.12  .244  .197  151  211  1  7
  230 Bethune-Cookman        SWAC     17.82  .488  .193  240  265  4  4
  231 Bucknell               OVC      16.12  .417  .177  237  315  4  5
  232 Towson                 COASTA   15.53  .388  .171  178  214  3  5
  233 Marist                 PATR     15.10  .414  .167  169  185  3  5
  234 Fordham                OVC      14.03  .136  .158  132  302  1  7
  235 Western Illinois       BIGSKY   13.20  .258  .151  207  350  2  7
  236 Houston Christian      STHLND   12.93  .275  .148  150  214  2  6
  237 Wagner                 NEC      12.22  .273  .142  113  216  2  6
  238 Alabama A&M            SWAC     12.14  .473  .142  236  290  4  4
  239 Tennessee St           BIGSKY   10.90  .288  .132  115  221  2  6
  240 Campbell               COASTA   10.66  .271  .130  214  334  2  7
  241 Howard                 MEAC     10.42  .489  .128  155  177  4  4
  242 Portland St            PIONEE   10.12  .043  .125  100  338  0  8
  243 North Carolina A&T     COASTA    9.75  .290  .123  189  305  2  6
  244 Albany NY              COASTA    9.19  .161  .118  120  263  1  7
  245 Northwestern St        STHLND    8.47  .166  .113   85  323  1  7
  246 Bryant                 COASTA    7.56  .307  .107  194  228  2  6
  247 Murray St              MOVAL     7.01  .034  .103  159  353  0  8
  248 Arkansas-Pine Bluff    SWAC      6.48  .295  .100  119  238  2  5
  249 Robert Morris          NEC       6.12  .286  .097  112  211  2  6
  250 Massachusetts          MIDAME    5.69  .061  .094   92  287  0  8
  251 Florida A&M            SWAC      5.61  .401  .094  153  241  3  4
  252 New Haven              NEC       5.53  .468  .093  218  220  4  4
  253 Morgan St              MEAC      4.70  .429  .088  189  208  3  5
  254 Morehead St            PATR      3.50  .412  .081  185  287  4  5
  255 Samford                STHRN     1.44  .121  .070  129  313  1  7
  256 Alcorn St              SWAC      0.75  .350  .066  175  204  2  6
  257 Hampton                COASTA   -1.35  .239  .057  184  312  2  7
  258 VMI                    STHRN    -1.65  .194  .055  137  284  1  7
  259 Stetson                PATR     -2.12  .309  .053  174  354  3  6
  260 Southern U.            SWAC     -2.27  .140  .053  127  296  1  7
  261 Norfolk St             MEAC     -5.08  .180  .042  160  290  1  7
  262 Davidson               PATR     -5.32  .164  .041  156  355  1  7
  263 St Francis PA          NEC      -5.93  .047  .039   67  250  0  7
  264 Mississippi Valley St  SWAC     -7.18  .208  .035  139  249  1  6
  265 Valparaiso             PATR    -11.06  .182  .024  151  283  1  7
  266 Non-Division I         DII     -14.56  .063  .017  647 2657  2 58
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Alabama           SEC      17 Florida St        ACC      31 0.113
   2 Memphis           AMER     24 Alabama-Birmingha AMER     31 0.171
   3 Abilene Christian UNITED    7 Incarnate Word    STHLND   38 0.217
   4 Pittsburgh        ACC      24 West Virginia     BIG12    31 0.224
   5 Duquesne          NEC      13 Wagner            NEC      24 0.265
   6 LIU               NEC      28 Eastern Michigan  MIDAMER  23 0.299
   7 Non-Division I    DII      31 Stetson           PATR     21 0.309
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings