Talisman Red's Womens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season. Also available, the ranked teams grouped by conference.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Warning! Since David's formula starts every season from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful. Be careful if you are looking here too soon!
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S WOMENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 1434 GAMES BETWEEN 349 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 19 2026
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Team W L T Rating PCT. RRE Conf.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Michigan St. 6 0 2 64.99 .708 .861 BIG10
2 Wake Forest 9 0 0 64.86 .778 .859 ACC
3 North Carolina 8 1 0 63.94 .735 .846 ACC
4 Vanderbilt 8 0 1 62.65 .765 .826 SEC
5 Ohio St. 6 1 1 61.88 .677 .813 BIG10
6 Alabama 9 1 0 61.36 .720 .804 SEC
7 Duke 6 1 1 61.23 .695 .802 ACC
8 Baylor 7 1 1 61.11 .682 .800 BIG12
9 Tennessee 6 0 2 61.10 .717 .800 SEC
10 Virginia 5 1 2 60.82 .651 .795 ACC
11 South Carolina 8 1 0 60.63 .718 .791 SEC
12 Notre Dame 4 0 5 60.32 .637 .786 ACC
13 Oklahoma 8 0 2 59.90 .744 .778 SEC
14 UCLA 5 3 1 59.89 .561 .778 BIG10
15 Stanford 6 2 1 59.68 .639 .774 ACC
16 Colorado 7 1 1 59.65 .698 .773 BIG12
17 Washington 7 0 1 59.61 .739 .772 BIG10
18 West Virginia 5 0 2 59.59 .694 .772 BIG12
19 Boston College 8 1 0 59.57 .722 .772 ACC
20 Penn St. 4 2 2 59.11 .584 .762 BIG10
21 Louisville 8 1 0 58.80 .727 .756 ACC
22 Utah St. 7 2 1 58.58 .654 .752 PAC12
23 Arizona St. 6 1 2 58.39 .670 .748 BIG12
24 Xavier 5 2 0 58.33 .622 .747 BIGEAST
25 Michigan 3 1 3 58.30 .582 .746 BIG10
26 Massachusetts 7 1 0 57.99 .708 .740 MAC
27 Texas 5 2 2 57.94 .598 .738 SEC
28 Texas Tech 4 0 4 57.78 .638 .735 BIG12
29 NC State 8 0 2 57.68 .733 .733 ACC
30 BYU 4 2 2 57.61 .563 .732 BIG12
31 Mississippi St. 7 1 1 57.28 .690 .724 SEC
32 Clemson 5 2 2 57.23 .605 .724 ACC
33 UCF 5 1 1 57.17 .644 .722 BIG12
34 Harvard 5 2 1 57.12 .616 .721 IVY
35 Virginia Tech 5 1 3 56.84 .627 .715 ACC
36 Wisconsin 5 1 2 56.80 .647 .714 BIG10
37 California Baptist 5 0 1 56.55 .731 .708 BIGWEST
38 Iowa 5 2 3 56.41 .601 .705 BIG10
39 Brown 6 2 1 56.26 .632 .702 IVY
40 Liberty 7 2 1 56.07 .636 .698 CUSA
41 Dartmouth 5 1 2 56.05 .636 .697 IVY
42 Villanova 5 0 2 56.04 .726 .697 BIGEAST
43 Kansas St. 5 1 3 55.99 .626 .696 BIG12
44 Oregon 6 1 2 55.98 .665 .696 BIG10
45 Illinois 3 1 5 55.96 .561 .695 BIG10
46 Auburn 5 1 3 55.93 .636 .694 SEC
47 Texas St. 7 1 1 55.86 .692 .693 PAC12
48 Kansas 6 2 1 55.83 .634 .692 BIG12
49 Georgetown 3 2 2 55.63 .544 .688 BIGEAST
50 TCU 3 3 1 55.59 .502 .687 BIG12
51 Minnesota 5 2 1 55.50 .612 .685 BIG10
52 San Diego St. 5 2 1 55.48 .614 .684 PAC12
53 Kentucky 6 3 0 55.38 .617 .682 SEC
54 Houston 5 1 3 55.38 .645 .682 BIG12
55 Saint Mary's (Cal.) 6 0 3 55.36 .687 .681 WCC
56 Florida 4 3 2 55.29 .541 .680 SEC
57 Oral Roberts 4 1 2 55.29 .628 .680 SUMM
58 Florida St. 4 1 2 55.18 .624 .677 ACC
59 UNCW 5 0 4 55.13 .654 .676 COL
60 Rutgers 2 2 3 55.00 .498 .673 BIG10
61 Memphis 4 3 1 54.96 .533 .672 AMER
62 Wyoming 7 2 0 54.84 .657 .669 MTNW
63 Purdue 7 1 1 54.84 .720 .669 BIG10
64 Miami (FL) 6 2 1 54.69 .619 .666 ACC
65 Georgia 3 3 3 54.62 .511 .664 SEC
66 Saint Louis 5 2 2 54.61 .609 .664 A10
67 Pittsburgh 6 3 1 54.60 .584 .664 ACC
68 Nebraska 2 2 4 54.55 .504 .662 BIG10
69 Santa Clara 4 2 3 54.28 .561 .656 WCC
70 Boise St. 7 1 1 54.13 .692 .652 PAC12
71 Pepperdine 4 3 2 54.12 .531 .652 WCC
72 Ga. Southern 6 1 2 54.01 .652 .649 SUN
73 UConn 2 1 3 53.87 .552 .646 BIGEAST
74 SMU 5 3 2 53.85 .571 .645 ACC
75 Arkansas 3 4 1 53.72 .482 .642 SEC
76 App State 6 1 2 53.68 .654 .641 SUN
77 Bowling Green 4 1 2 53.67 .618 .641 MAC
78 Long Beach St. 6 1 2 53.48 .657 .636 BIGWEST
79 Ole Miss 7 3 0 53.47 .602 .636 SEC
80 Fairfield 5 3 1 53.28 .556 .631 METRO
81 Oklahoma St. 5 2 2 53.22 .603 .630 BIG12
82 Western Ky. 5 0 3 53.21 .671 .629 CUSA
83 Utah Valley 4 4 1 53.18 .507 .629 BIGWEST
84 Gonzaga 4 4 1 53.16 .507 .628 PAC12
85 Air Force 5 2 0 53.13 .626 .628 MTNW
86 Samford 3 2 3 53.10 .537 .627 STHRN
87 Grand Canyon 4 2 3 53.07 .567 .626 MTNW
88 Seattle U 5 3 1 53.07 .570 .626 WCC
89 Western Mich. 3 2 3 53.06 .531 .626 MAC
90 Syracuse 3 4 2 52.88 .472 .621 ACC
91 Northwestern 3 4 2 52.81 .467 .620 BIG10
92 Monmouth 5 1 2 52.68 .642 .616 COL
93 Arizona 3 4 2 52.62 .472 .615 BIG12
94 Texas A&M 4 5 0 52.53 .472 .612 SEC
95 Stony Brook 3 0 4 52.48 .624 .611 COL
96 Idaho 5 2 1 52.35 .601 .608 BIGSKY
97 UTSA 3 1 3 52.32 .580 .607 AMER
98 Loyola Chicago 3 2 3 52.24 .528 .605 A10
99 Southern California 1 5 3 52.22 .376 .605 BIG10
100 Louisiana 6 2 1 52.16 .636 .603 SUN
101 FGCU 3 1 3 52.01 .582 .599 ASUN
102 Siena 6 2 1 51.94 .623 .597 METRO
103 Marquette 3 1 4 51.92 .576 .597 BIGEAST
104 South Dakota St. 3 2 1 51.92 .551 .597 SUMM
105 Cal St. Fullerton 3 2 3 51.78 .530 .593 BIGWEST
106 New Mexico 3 2 1 51.68 .542 .591 MTNW
107 UTEP 5 0 3 51.56 .668 .588 MTNW
108 Princeton 4 3 0 51.56 .540 .588 IVY
109 Old Dominion 3 5 0 51.52 .439 .587 SUN
110 California 2 4 3 51.51 .436 .587 ACC
111 Hawaii 2 3 1 51.23 .458 .579 MTNW
112 Delaware 4 2 3 51.19 .564 .578 CUSA
113 Penn 4 3 1 51.18 .539 .578 IVY
114 San Diego 3 3 2 51.16 .500 .577 WCC
115 Charlotte 4 4 0 51.11 .498 .576 AMER
116 Quinnipiac 4 2 1 51.06 .566 .575 METRO
117 LSU 2 7 1 51.01 .367 .574 SEC
118 Coastal Carolina 6 2 1 50.94 .624 .572 SUN
119 Sacred Heart 6 1 0 50.88 .700 .570 METRO
120 Lipscomb 3 1 3 50.87 .578 .570 ASUN
121 Maryland 3 5 1 50.78 .434 .568 BIG10
122 Middle Tenn. 7 1 2 50.70 .669 .565 CUSA
123 Eastern Mich. 2 1 4 50.68 .542 .565 MAC
124 Niagara 5 2 0 50.67 .618 .565 METRO
125 Cal Poly 3 3 2 50.62 .504 .563 BIGWEST
126 UC Santa Barbara 5 1 3 50.61 .623 .563 BIGWEST
127 Indiana 4 3 1 50.56 .529 .562 BIG10
128 Dayton 4 5 0 50.49 .459 .560 A10
129 Utah 3 4 2 50.46 .479 .559 BIG12
130 Portland 4 5 0 50.39 .472 .558 WCC
131 Yale 4 4 0 50.34 .504 .556 IVY
132 Fairleigh Dickinson 3 2 3 50.33 .542 .556 NEC
133 North Texas 3 3 2 50.32 .494 .556 AMER
134 Seton Hall 4 0 2 50.31 .689 .555 BIGEAST
135 Providence 2 1 6 50.30 .528 .555 BIGEAST
136 Washington St. 3 3 3 50.26 .498 .554 PAC12
137 Holy Cross 4 3 1 50.15 .533 .551 PATR
138 Buffalo 4 2 2 50.10 .561 .550 MAC
139 UC San Diego 4 2 2 50.05 .568 .549 BIGWEST
140 Illinois St. 5 1 3 49.98 .621 .547 MOVAL
141 UAB 3 5 1 49.94 .439 .546 AMER
142 Tulsa 4 3 2 49.89 .531 .545 AMER
143 South Alabama 3 4 1 49.87 .467 .544 SUN
144 Green Bay 6 0 2 49.82 .706 .543 HORZ
145 St. John's (NY) 3 4 1 49.75 .469 .541 BIGEAST
146 James Madison 3 4 1 49.62 .465 .537 SUN
147 West Florida 4 0 1 49.61 .724 .537 ASUN
148 Boston U. 4 5 1 49.54 .472 .535 PATR
149 Binghamton 4 2 2 49.52 .577 .535 AMEAST
150 Rice 2 4 3 49.45 .444 .533 AMER
151 Fla. Atlantic 3 3 4 49.41 .504 .532 AMER
152 North Ala. 2 1 3 49.23 .542 .527 UAC
153 Cincinnati 2 2 4 49.12 .504 .524 BIG12
154 Butler 5 2 1 49.10 .618 .524 BIGEAST
155 Colorado Col. 2 4 2 49.07 .417 .523 MTNW
156 Eastern Wash. 4 2 0 49.05 .588 .522 BIGSKY
157 New Hampshire 3 3 2 49.04 .497 .522 AMEAST
158 Ball St. 3 4 1 48.96 .460 .520 MAC
159 Georgia St. 4 3 1 48.93 .541 .519 SUN
160 FIU 3 3 3 48.92 .502 .519 CUSA
161 Toledo 5 2 1 48.91 .605 .519 MAC
162 Creighton 4 3 1 48.89 .526 .518 BIGEAST
163 Milwaukee 3 4 2 48.83 .458 .517 HORZ
164 Southern Ill. 7 2 0 48.77 .663 .515 MOVAL
165 Northern Colo. 3 3 2 48.73 .494 .514 BIGSKY
166 San Francisco 3 3 1 48.72 .498 .514 WCC
167 Loyola Maryland 0 1 7 48.72 .463 .514 PATR
168 Miami (OH) 5 4 0 48.70 .531 .513 MAC
169 Detroit Mercy 3 3 1 48.65 .492 .512 HORZ
170 Elon 5 1 2 48.51 .656 .508 COL
171 Iowa St. 4 3 2 48.39 .539 .505 BIG12
172 Army West Point 4 6 0 48.36 .440 .504 PATR
173 Manhattan 4 2 0 48.32 .598 .503 METRO
174 UMBC 5 2 1 48.29 .603 .502 AMEAST
175 East Carolina 1 2 6 48.28 .466 .502 AMER
176 Navy 6 4 1 48.03 .556 .495 PATR
177 Saint Joseph's 4 2 3 47.99 .557 .494 A10
178 Davidson 4 4 1 47.95 .495 .493 A10
179 George Mason 4 2 3 47.93 .567 .493 A10
180 Towson 3 3 2 47.89 .502 .492 COL
181 South Dakota 2 3 2 47.81 .466 .490 SUMM
182 Weber St. 3 5 1 47.78 .431 .489 BIGSKY
183 DePaul 3 2 3 47.68 .533 .486 BIGEAST
184 Cornell 3 3 2 47.66 .500 .486 IVY
185 Northern Ariz. 3 4 2 47.62 .471 .484 BIGSKY
186 Missouri 3 5 1 47.59 .452 .484 SEC
187 Northeastern 2 4 2 47.59 .426 .484 COL
188 UC Irvine 2 3 2 47.51 .452 .482 BIGWEST
189 ETSU 4 3 1 47.48 .528 .481 STHRN
190 Sam Houston 3 2 3 47.44 .522 .480 CUSA
191 Colorado State 1 6 1 47.40 .334 .479 PAC12
192 Abilene Christian 2 2 3 47.40 .504 .479 UAC
193 Lamar 2 1 3 47.37 .542 .478 STHLD
194 Utah Tech 3 4 1 47.32 .449 .477 BIGSKY
195 Fordham 3 3 1 47.31 .489 .476 A10
196 Chattanooga 4 1 4 47.29 .598 .476 STHRN
197 Sacramento St. 4 2 2 47.23 .568 .474 BIGWEST
198 Drake 4 3 1 47.22 .546 .474 MOVAL
199 Furman 4 3 1 47.17 .533 .473 STHRN
200 North Florida 2 2 3 47.05 .500 .470 ASUN
201 Western Caro. 3 5 1 47.03 .431 .469 STHRN
202 UMass Lowell 3 4 1 46.98 .463 .468 AMEAST
203 USC Upstate 4 2 2 46.88 .576 .465 BIGSTH
204 Maine 3 3 2 46.87 .502 .465 AMEAST
205 Columbia 1 4 3 46.83 .397 .464 IVY
206 Bucknell 4 5 1 46.82 .479 .463 PATR
207 Campbell 3 4 2 46.81 .474 .463 COL
208 George Washington 3 3 2 46.70 .509 .460 A10
209 San Jose St. 1 4 2 46.68 .380 .460 MTNW
210 Rhode Island 2 4 3 46.63 .431 .459 A10
211 UNC Greensboro 4 4 1 46.61 .495 .458 STHRN
212 New Mexico State 1 6 2 46.58 .335 .457 CUSA
213 South Fla. 2 4 2 46.52 .424 .456 AMER
214 Col. of Charleston 3 4 3 46.51 .475 .456 COL
215 Drexel 3 3 1 46.35 .498 .451 COL
216 Southeastern La. 4 3 1 46.32 .533 .450 STHLD
217 Marshall 4 2 3 46.18 .557 .447 SUN
218 CSUN 2 4 3 46.18 .436 .447 BIGWEST
219 Temple 7 2 0 46.02 .654 .443 AMER
220 UIW 3 4 2 45.99 .456 .442 STHLD
221 Eastern Ky. 4 4 1 45.94 .506 .440 UAC
222 North Dakota 3 3 1 45.93 .500 .440 SUMM
223 La Salle 4 3 2 45.90 .520 .440 A10
224 Duquesne 4 4 1 45.90 .502 .439 A10
225 Ohio 3 4 0 45.82 .468 .437 MAC
226 Belmont 1 3 4 45.68 .425 .434 MOVAL
227 William & Mary 1 4 3 45.67 .402 .433 COL
228 Jacksonville 1 3 2 45.60 .397 .432 ASUN
229 Lindenwood 4 4 1 45.60 .495 .432 OVC
230 VCU 0 6 3 45.50 .297 .429 A10
231 Indiana St. 4 1 3 45.43 .609 .427 MOVAL
232 NJIT 3 4 1 45.37 .460 .426 AMEAST
233 Hofstra 1 5 2 45.26 .364 .423 COL
234 UNC Asheville 3 3 3 45.25 .502 .423 BIGSTH
235 UC Davis 2 4 2 45.19 .430 .421 MTNW
236 North Dakota St. 1 3 4 45.08 .430 .418 SUMM
237 High Point 2 6 1 45.05 .380 .417 BIGSTH
238 Evansville 2 3 1 45.01 .456 .416 MOVAL
239 McNeese 5 5 0 44.96 .497 .415 STHLD
240 Canisius 4 4 0 44.92 .496 .414 METRO
241 Tennessee Tech 3 4 3 44.83 .462 .412 STHRN
242 Little Rock 2 4 1 44.71 .398 .409 UAC
243 Robert Morris 3 4 1 44.69 .461 .408 HORZ
244 Eastern Ill. 2 4 3 44.67 .434 .408 OVC
245 Richmond 5 0 3 44.62 .673 .407 A10
246 Denver 1 5 2 44.61 .360 .406 WCC
247 Lafayette 2 3 4 44.54 .469 .404 PATR
248 Missouri St. 2 5 1 44.50 .383 .403 CUSA
249 UNLV 2 4 2 44.40 .426 .401 MTNW
250 Houston Christian 4 3 3 44.34 .527 .399 STHLD
251 East Texas A&M 1 5 3 44.27 .376 .398 STHLD
252 Tarleton St. 2 2 5 44.20 .502 .396 UAC
253 Mercer 5 4 1 44.19 .541 .395 STHRN
254 Idaho St. 2 5 1 44.16 .383 .395 BIGSKY
255 LMU (CA) 1 5 2 44.12 .367 .394 WCC
256 Central Mich. 2 5 1 43.97 .397 .390 MAC
257 Alcorn St. 3 3 1 43.96 .500 .390 SWAC
258 Oregon St. 0 7 2 43.95 .278 .390 PAC12
259 Iona 4 2 2 43.92 .557 .389 METRO
260 IU Indy 2 5 2 43.81 .396 .386 HORZ
261 Vermont 1 4 2 43.81 .372 .386 AMEAST
262 Southern Miss. 3 3 2 43.79 .505 .386 SUN
263 UAlbany 2 4 1 43.76 .416 .385 AMEAST
264 Central Ark. 3 4 1 43.65 .463 .382 UAC
265 Bryant 2 3 2 43.63 .464 .381 AMEAST
266 UIC 1 5 2 43.61 .364 .381 MOVAL
267 The Citadel 5 1 2 43.54 .648 .379 STHRN
268 NIU 1 4 2 43.46 .384 .377 HORZ
269 SIUE 2 2 3 43.46 .500 .377 OVC
270 Northwestern St. 3 5 0 43.31 .431 .373 STHLD
271 Northern Ky. 3 3 1 43.25 .504 .372 HORZ
272 ULM 3 6 1 43.21 .426 .371 SUN
273 Central Conn. St. 3 5 0 43.16 .432 .370 NEC
274 Southeast Mo. St. 1 6 2 43.14 .335 .369 OVC
275 Valparaiso 4 4 1 43.13 .507 .369 MOVAL
276 UC Riverside 2 5 0 43.04 .386 .367 BIGWEST
277 Kent St. 1 5 2 43.03 .362 .367 MAC
278 Akron 4 4 0 42.85 .502 .362 MAC
279 Omaha 1 4 3 42.74 .395 .359 SUMM
280 Marist 2 6 0 42.73 .362 .359 METRO
281 Colgate 1 7 2 42.68 .332 .358 PATR
282 Wagner 1 5 2 42.65 .364 .357 NEC
283 Stonehill 1 4 4 42.53 .422 .354 NEC
284 Wright St. 2 5 1 42.22 .388 .347 HORZ
285 Longwood 3 5 2 42.21 .444 .347 BIGSTH
286 Morehead St. 4 5 0 42.17 .472 .346 OVC
287 Southern Utah 2 5 1 42.17 .393 .346 BIGSKY
288 Kennesaw St. 3 4 3 42.10 .475 .344 CUSA
289 Jacksonville St. 3 4 2 42.07 .457 .343 CUSA
290 Arkansas St. 2 3 2 42.02 .458 .342 SUN
291 Youngstown St. 1 7 2 42.00 .331 .341 HORZ
292 Rider 1 4 1 41.97 .351 .341 METRO
293 Murray St. 1 6 2 41.89 .351 .339 MOVAL
294 Fresno St. 1 7 1 41.73 .294 .335 PAC12
295 UT Martin 1 4 5 41.72 .425 .335 OVC
296 Louisiana Tech 2 5 2 41.60 .402 .332 SUN
297 St. Thomas (MN) 1 5 1 41.47 .340 .329 SUMM
298 Wofford 3 4 1 41.31 .467 .325 STHRN
299 UTRGV 2 5 0 41.28 .384 .324 STHLD
300 Merrimack 2 5 2 41.11 .405 .321 METRO
301 Nevada 3 6 0 40.98 .417 .318 MTNW
302 Kansas City 1 6 0 40.88 .296 .315 SUMM
303 Troy 1 6 2 40.68 .346 .311 SUN
304 SFA 3 6 0 40.33 .402 .303 STHLD
305 St. Bonaventure 3 4 1 40.30 .465 .302 A10
306 Bellarmine 1 4 1 40.28 .357 .302 ASUN
307 Mt. St. Mary's 1 5 2 40.23 .348 .300 METRO
308 Texas Southern 1 7 1 39.94 .306 .294 SWAC
309 Montana 0 5 0 39.88 .211 .293 BIGSKY
310 New Haven 1 6 0 39.55 .288 .285 NEC
311 Portland St. 0 7 0 39.48 .218 .284 BIGSKY
312 Lehigh 0 7 1 39.47 .243 .284 PATR
313 Alabama A&M 1 4 2 39.26 .364 .279 SWAC
314 Southern Ind. 1 6 3 39.01 .360 .274 OVC
315 West Ga. 0 5 2 39.00 .304 .274 UAC
316 CSU Bakersfield 1 7 0 38.82 .290 .270 BIGWEST
317 Grambling 1 7 1 38.76 .304 .268 SWAC
318 Southern U. 0 6 1 38.59 .234 .265 SWAC
319 Radford 0 5 1 38.41 .262 .261 BIGSTH
320 Presbyterian 1 4 1 38.40 .367 .261 BIGSTH
321 American 0 7 2 38.31 .277 .259 PATR
322 A&M-Corpus Christi 1 4 2 38.28 .386 .258 STHLD
323 Nicholls 1 3 4 38.16 .444 .256 STHLD
324 Pacific 1 8 0 38.16 .276 .256 WCC
325 Gardner-Webb 1 5 1 37.92 .340 .251 BIGSTH
326 Mercyhurst 2 7 0 37.82 .330 .249 NEC
327 Howard 0 4 2 37.74 .292 .247 NEC
328 Charleston So. 1 6 0 37.55 .290 .243 BIGSTH
329 Hampton 1 5 1 37.03 .338 .233 COL
330 Western Ill. 1 10 0 36.73 .250 .227 OVC
331 Le Moyne 1 9 0 36.71 .269 .227 NEC
332 Winthrop 3 6 0 36.68 .402 .227 BIGSTH
333 Jackson St. 1 6 0 36.34 .292 .220 SWAC
334 Austin Peay 1 7 1 36.32 .307 .220 UAC
335 Purdue Fort Wayne 0 6 1 36.04 .239 .215 HORZ
336 Oakland 1 5 0 36.02 .316 .214 HORZ
337 Stetson 0 6 0 35.41 .210 .203 ASUN
338 Queens (NC) 1 6 1 35.36 .318 .202 ASUN
339 Saint Peter's 1 6 1 34.87 .332 .194 METRO
340 LIU 0 7 1 34.60 .249 .189 NEC
341 VMI 0 9 1 34.56 .237 .189 STHRN
342 Cleveland St. 1 7 0 33.80 .279 .176 HORZ
343 Prairie View 0 7 1 33.44 .248 .170 SWAC
344 Alabama St. 0 7 1 32.97 .230 .163 SWAC
345 Chicago St. 0 8 0 32.83 .202 .161 NEC
346 UNI 0 7 0 32.65 .210 .158 MOVAL
347 South Carolina St. 0 8 1 31.71 .222 .145 IND
348 Delaware St. 0 5 0 30.83 .186 .133 NEC
349 Ark.-Pine Bluff 0 3 0 20.72 .083 .046 SWAC
Explanations:
These rankings use the method developed by David Rothman (1935-2004),
founder of the Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and
Tournaments (FACT). David's work was a part of college football's
Bowl Championship Series for multiple years. His formula considers
only margin of victory for in-season games (past data, date of game,
and location are ignored).
David's original code was written in BASIC in the 1970s -- the copy
that I have is from November 1990 -- and I have rewritten it in
Python to match the original numbers exactly. The only differences
should be in the formatting of the output.
Columns:
Rating: measures a team's strength by balancing their results against
opponent quality. Ratings are iteratively adjusted until the system
reaches a best fit across the entire season. Scores use a
logistic function to give diminishing returns on blowouts.
Pct: the normalized margin-of-victory for a team's games. Rothman
uses "diminshing returns" so that running up the score does not add
much additional information.
RRE: a team's expected win percentage if we were able to play a full
round-robin schedule among all the teams listed. It's functionally
the same as the Rating, just expressed in a different way.
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT Rankings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF SEASON
1 Wagner NEC 2 Monmouth COL 1 0.53
2 Jacksonville ASUN 2 Miami (FL) ACC 0 0.54
3 Sacred Heart METRO 2 Marist METRO 3 0.59
4 Mississippi St. SEC 0 Charlotte AMER 3 0.62
5 Wyoming MTNW 1 Weber St. BIGSKY 2 0.63
6 Wright St. HORZ 2 Butler BIGEAS 1 0.64
7 Robert Morris HORZ 0 Mercyhurst NEC 1 0.64
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
More Details
I've preserved David's original BASIC source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
But on this site...
...I use a version of his code that I developed in Python. Why? So that I can run it in my modern workflow. The numbers reproduce exactly (I've checked in multiple sports), even with over 15,000 games, so I hope that David wouldn't take offense to modernizing the hardware. But I absolutely preserve the math.
- Womens College Soccer
- Front Page
- Explanation
- Talisman Red Formula
- Ratings
- Conference Standings
- Schedule in Next Few Days
- Wilson Formula
- Ratings
- Conference Standings
- Conferences, Ranked
- Rothman Formula
- D-I Teams Rated
- Conference Standings
- Many Other Sports