Talisman Red's Womens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far. Or, the rankings within each conference are here.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is not included.
Warning: since David's method starts every team from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful.
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S WOMENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 2106 GAMES BETWEEN 350 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 08 2025
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L T
1 Notre Dame ACC 67.05 .765 .878 39 11 10 0 1
2 Virginia ACC 66.58 .757 .872 25 3 10 0 1
3 Tennessee SEC 64.23 .723 .839 32 5 11 1 1
4 Stanford ACC 63.64 .731 .830 44 7 9 1 1
5 Florida St. ACC 63.28 .743 .824 31 2 8 0 2
6 Baylor BIG12 62.59 .690 .813 23 4 9 1 2
7 TCU BIG12 62.49 .682 .811 26 14 10 2 0
8 Arkansas SEC 62.00 .614 .803 26 18 7 2 3
9 Duke ACC 61.90 .614 .801 30 12 7 3 1
10 Memphis AMER 61.75 .727 .798 21 4 9 0 2
11 Texas Tech BIG12 61.56 .712 .795 26 6 10 1 1
12 Mississippi St. SEC 61.18 .666 .788 28 12 9 2 1
13 West Virginia BIG12 61.09 .645 .787 23 7 8 2 2
14 UCLA BIG10 60.74 .615 .780 13 4 8 3 1
15 Louisville ACC 60.67 .671 .779 42 9 10 3 0
16 Michigan St. BIG10 60.65 .597 .778 32 14 6 2 5
17 Colorado BIG12 60.56 .664 .777 36 10 9 2 2
18 South Carolina SEC 60.54 .661 .776 23 6 9 1 4
19 Georgetown BIGEAS 60.45 .656 .774 28 9 9 2 2
20 Iowa BIG10 60.27 .631 .771 24 10 8 2 3
21 North Carolina ACC 60.27 .621 .771 35 13 9 4 0
22 Penn St. BIG10 59.88 .571 .763 28 16 7 4 2
23 Vanderbilt SEC 59.80 .638 .762 27 7 9 3 1
24 Kansas BIG12 59.73 .608 .760 27 17 8 3 2
25 BYU BIG12 59.57 .598 .757 23 11 7 3 2
26 Wake Forest ACC 59.39 .651 .754 25 11 9 2 2
27 UCF BIG12 59.33 .639 .752 19 8 8 2 2
28 Ohio St. BIG10 59.00 .579 .746 12 4 4 1 6
29 Wisconsin BIG10 58.75 .626 .740 22 13 9 3 1
30 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 58.59 .675 .737 19 7 8 1 2
31 Xavier BIGEAS 58.59 .669 .737 42 11 9 2 2
32 Arizona St. BIG12 58.48 .652 .735 25 10 9 2 2
33 Washington BIG10 58.41 .629 .733 19 7 7 1 5
34 Cal St. Fullerton BIGWES 58.38 .730 .733 21 4 10 0 2
35 Georgia SEC 58.15 .592 .728 30 10 7 3 4
36 Illinois BIG10 58.15 .669 .728 23 10 10 2 1
37 Southern California BIG10 58.14 .599 .727 20 14 7 3 1
38 LSU SEC 58.06 .545 .726 24 15 7 5 2
39 Alabama SEC 57.85 .602 .721 32 20 9 4 1
40 Northwestern BIG10 57.69 .562 .718 14 10 5 2 6
41 Clemson ACC 57.49 .494 .713 15 20 4 4 5
42 Pepperdine WCC 57.17 .581 .706 33 17 7 4 1
43 Oklahoma SEC 57.11 .626 .705 32 14 9 3 2
44 California ACC 56.46 .577 .690 17 12 6 2 6
45 Old Dominion SUNBLT 56.32 .641 .687 23 10 7 1 4
46 Auburn SEC 56.20 .506 .684 15 10 4 4 4
47 Saint Louis A10 56.18 .673 .684 27 10 10 2 1
48 Utah Valley WAC 55.95 .561 .678 32 20 6 4 1
49 Liberty CUSA 55.91 .580 .677 23 15 7 3 4
50 Utah BIG12 55.83 .522 .675 12 11 5 4 3
51 Dayton A10 55.57 .608 .669 17 7 8 3 2
52 UConn BIGEAS 55.43 .591 .666 13 7 7 3 2
53 Western Mich. MAC 55.28 .620 .662 25 12 8 3 1
54 Kentucky SEC 55.24 .611 .661 32 11 9 4 1
55 Kansas St. BIG12 55.22 .525 .661 14 11 5 4 3
56 Santa Clara WCC 55.21 .498 .661 15 17 5 5 2
57 Nebraska BIG10 55.14 .546 .659 19 12 5 3 5
58 Arizona BIG12 55.12 .519 .658 20 20 7 6 0
59 James Madison SUNBLT 55.00 .564 .656 26 16 6 3 5
60 Texas A&M SEC 54.99 .483 .655 14 12 4 5 4
61 Houston BIG12 54.92 .592 .654 24 6 5 2 4
62 Charlotte AMER 54.90 .548 .653 17 15 6 4 1
63 Florida SEC 54.82 .502 .651 23 21 5 5 3
64 Michigan BIG10 54.77 .478 .650 15 17 5 6 2
65 Brown IVY 54.70 .618 .648 22 10 6 2 2
66 UC Santa Barbara BIGWES 54.68 .639 .648 21 8 9 2 3
67 Seattle U WCC 54.55 .576 .644 29 18 5 2 5
68 Rice AMER 54.50 .636 .643 25 16 8 2 2
69 SMU ACC 54.38 .609 .640 22 11 8 3 2
70 San Diego St. MTNW 54.35 .574 .640 16 12 5 2 4
71 Texas St. SUNBLT 54.33 .591 .639 21 15 6 2 4
72 Portland WCC 54.07 .543 .633 10 9 5 3 4
73 Miami (FL) ACC 54.05 .522 .632 16 14 6 5 2
74 South Dakota St. SUMMIT 53.99 .632 .631 23 9 6 1 4
75 Iowa St. BIG12 53.93 .476 .629 15 16 4 5 2
76 Denver SUMMIT 53.91 .543 .629 17 13 6 4 3
77 Virginia Tech ACC 53.89 .471 .628 29 21 4 6 3
78 Buffalo MAC 53.85 .668 .627 24 6 9 2 1
79 Colorado St. MTNW 53.59 .623 .621 14 7 7 2 2
80 UTSA AMER 53.58 .569 .620 11 6 5 2 5
81 Minnesota BIG10 53.57 .480 .620 19 18 5 6 1
82 South Alabama SUNBLT 53.57 .625 .620 28 11 8 3 1
83 Rutgers BIG10 53.55 .481 .620 12 9 3 4 4
84 Utah St. MTNW 53.54 .482 .619 13 12 4 5 4
85 Pittsburgh ACC 53.50 .452 .618 15 27 5 7 2
86 San Diego WCC 53.50 .576 .618 20 14 4 1 6
87 Ole Miss SEC 53.43 .438 .617 11 23 4 6 1
88 Lipscomb ASUN 53.33 .635 .614 30 13 9 3 1
89 LMU (CA) WCC 53.31 .518 .614 9 14 5 4 1
90 Eastern Ky. ASUN 53.27 .622 .613 24 19 8 2 3
91 UC Irvine BIGWES 53.19 .565 .611 18 7 6 3 5
92 FIU CUSA 53.15 .547 .609 15 14 5 3 3
93 Cal Poly BIGWES 53.14 .562 .609 22 18 4 1 8
94 Loyola Chicago A10 53.11 .583 .609 16 11 7 3 3
95 Milwaukee HORZ 52.84 .591 .602 33 21 8 4 1
96 UAB AMER 52.76 .507 .600 20 14 3 3 6
97 Fairfield MAAC 52.72 .697 .599 29 8 10 1 2
98 Duquesne A10 52.71 .637 .598 30 11 9 3 1
99 NC State ACC 52.59 .435 .595 16 22 3 6 4
100 Samford SOCON 52.54 .592 .594 24 11 6 2 5
101 Creighton BIGEAS 52.51 .438 .593 17 21 4 7 2
102 Montana BIGSKY 52.51 .572 .593 17 9 6 3 3
103 Missouri SEC 52.43 .418 .591 13 17 4 8 1
104 UNCW CAA 52.39 .604 .590 20 13 8 3 2
105 Weber St. BIGSKY 52.38 .562 .590 22 18 8 5 0
106 Oklahoma St. BIG12 52.29 .434 .588 17 24 4 7 2
107 Marquette BIGEAS 52.13 .555 .583 20 13 5 3 3
108 South Fla. AMER 52.11 .526 .583 21 17 6 5 1
109 Oral Roberts SUMMIT 52.06 .605 .582 18 8 7 3 1
110 Delaware CUSA 52.06 .647 .582 22 11 8 1 4
111 Dartmouth IVY 52.05 .603 .581 17 5 5 2 2
112 Bowling Green MAC 51.98 .628 .580 19 8 7 1 5
113 Wyoming MTNW 51.96 .523 .579 10 10 4 3 4
114 Cincinnati BIG12 51.95 .455 .579 11 17 3 5 5
115 Binghamton AMEAST 51.95 .656 .579 21 13 8 1 3
116 Stony Brook CAA 51.92 .613 .578 26 19 8 3 1
117 Gonzaga WCC 51.71 .432 .573 17 17 4 7 0
118 Boston College ACC 51.71 .510 .573 19 10 4 4 5
119 Washington St. WCC 51.63 .457 .571 11 12 3 5 4
120 New Mexico MTNW 51.59 .589 .569 19 9 5 2 3
121 App State SUNBLT 51.48 .498 .567 13 15 5 5 3
122 Maryland BIG10 51.41 .478 .565 17 19 6 7 0
123 Texas SEC 51.35 .373 .563 18 28 3 9 1
124 Indiana BIG10 51.30 .482 .562 15 13 3 4 5
125 Monmouth CAA 51.30 .579 .562 19 17 8 4 1
126 Rhode Island A10 51.27 .628 .561 18 7 9 3 1
127 Butler BIGEAS 51.06 .525 .555 19 16 4 3 5
128 ULM SUNBLT 50.91 .624 .552 24 17 8 2 3
129 Chattanooga SOCON 50.90 .603 .551 30 17 8 3 3
130 ETSU SOCON 50.87 .617 .551 20 11 8 2 4
131 Grand Canyon MTNW 50.87 .542 .550 15 15 7 5 0
132 Villanova BIGEAS 50.84 .518 .550 11 15 6 5 0
133 Miami (OH) MAC 50.82 .590 .549 17 12 8 4 0
134 Coastal Carolina SUNBLT 50.82 .474 .549 9 13 3 4 5
135 Long Beach St. BIGWES 50.81 .479 .549 15 12 3 4 3
136 Syracuse ACC 50.68 .464 .546 19 19 4 6 4
137 Drake MVC 50.65 .571 .545 25 13 6 3 4
138 Furman SOCON 50.56 .619 .542 23 11 7 2 3
139 East Carolina AMER 50.52 .505 .541 15 11 4 4 3
140 Western Caro. SOCON 50.43 .567 .539 28 15 7 4 3
141 California Baptist WAC 50.40 .493 .538 15 21 6 6 1
142 Columbia IVY 50.36 .473 .537 11 14 4 5 2
143 San Francisco WCC 50.32 .393 .536 7 19 2 6 3
144 FGCU ASUN 50.29 .558 .535 25 16 6 4 1
145 Colorado Col. MTNW 50.26 .478 .534 14 15 3 4 5
146 Purdue BIG10 50.23 .489 .534 23 16 5 6 3
147 Boise St. MTNW 50.11 .518 .531 13 14 4 3 6
148 Army West Point PATR 50.03 .590 .528 29 18 8 4 1
149 Tulsa AMER 50.03 .526 .528 30 24 5 4 4
150 Missouri St. CUSA 50.03 .473 .528 14 19 4 5 3
151 Kennesaw State CUSA 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
152 Miss. Valley St. SWAC 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
153 Pennsylvania IVY 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
154 Kent St. MAC 49.86 .516 .524 18 21 5 4 4
155 Fordham A10 49.85 .561 .524 25 22 7 4 2
156 Air Force MTNW 49.84 .446 .523 15 18 3 5 2
157 Bellarmine ASUN 49.76 .567 .521 14 15 6 3 2
158 CSU Bakersfield BIGWES 49.75 .462 .521 15 12 4 6 2
159 Cornell IVY 49.71 .500 .520 13 13 4 4 4
160 Fresno St. MTNW 49.67 .533 .519 20 10 4 3 5
161 Davidson A10 49.66 .542 .519 14 14 6 4 2
162 Marshall SUNBLT 49.66 .523 .519 19 17 5 4 3
163 Georgia St. SUNBLT 49.64 .499 .518 18 19 5 5 2
164 Hofstra CAA 49.62 .541 .517 16 14 4 2 7
165 Hawaii BIGWES 49.60 .455 .517 14 20 2 4 7
166 Elon CAA 49.52 .614 .515 24 8 7 2 4
167 La Salle A10 49.41 .498 .512 18 20 5 5 2
168 Harvard IVY 49.39 .501 .511 13 12 4 4 2
169 Oregon BIG10 49.33 .379 .510 11 16 2 8 3
170 Northern Ariz. BIGSKY 49.27 .503 .508 13 11 3 3 5
171 Providence BIGEAS 49.27 .494 .508 9 13 4 4 2
172 Boston U. PATR 49.27 .526 .508 21 17 5 4 3
173 CSUN BIGWES 49.18 .463 .506 12 11 4 6 3
174 Fla. Atlantic AMER 49.15 .437 .505 22 31 4 7 3
175 Col. of Charleston CAA 49.09 .554 .503 27 13 7 5 1
176 South Dakota SUMMIT 48.88 .540 .498 15 16 5 3 4
177 Idaho BIGSKY 48.87 .501 .498 12 11 4 4 6
178 Colgate PATR 48.87 .519 .498 17 17 5 4 4
179 Belmont MVC 48.86 .501 .497 13 12 3 3 6
180 Middle Tenn. CUSA 48.81 .560 .496 19 13 7 4 3
181 UC San Diego BIGWES 48.79 .432 .496 9 13 2 5 5
182 William & Mary CAA 48.74 .479 .494 13 15 4 5 4
183 Louisiana SUNBLT 48.70 .527 .493 20 13 5 4 4
184 Southern Ill. MVC 48.69 .650 .493 23 10 9 2 2
185 Northern Ky. HORZ 48.68 .604 .493 26 9 6 2 4
186 Idaho St. BIGSKY 48.65 .500 .492 10 10 4 4 3
187 UC Davis BIGWES 48.59 .397 .490 9 15 2 7 4
188 Oregon St. WCC 48.49 .360 .487 9 21 1 7 4
189 Loyola Maryland PATR 48.30 .545 .483 10 7 4 2 6
190 Pacific WCC 48.24 .414 .481 9 29 3 6 3
191 Kansas City SUMMIT 48.21 .445 .480 15 22 4 6 1
192 Yale IVY 48.21 .389 .480 14 21 3 7 0
193 Jacksonville ASUN 48.17 .567 .479 32 16 6 4 1
194 Sacramento St. BIGSKY 48.14 .476 .478 16 22 6 7 1
195 Utah Tech WAC 48.10 .501 .477 18 17 4 4 3
196 Northwestern St. STHLD 48.05 .577 .476 21 9 6 3 3
197 North Dakota SUMMIT 47.97 .512 .474 24 13 5 5 3
198 VCU A10 47.95 .412 .473 12 28 4 8 2
199 SFA STHLD 47.77 .538 .468 17 15 4 2 8
200 Murray St. MVC 47.70 .517 .467 15 17 5 4 4
201 Eastern Wash. BIGSKY 47.64 .475 .465 17 22 4 5 4
202 North Ala. ASUN 47.62 .544 .464 13 8 6 4 3
203 Eastern Mich. MAC 47.55 .475 .463 10 13 4 5 3
204 Abilene Christian WAC 47.49 .457 .461 12 16 5 7 1
205 Ball St. MAC 47.45 .501 .460 15 14 5 5 2
206 Ga. Southern SUNBLT 47.42 .371 .459 12 24 2 8 3
207 Navy PATR 47.31 .552 .456 24 12 7 5 1
208 Radford BIGSTH 47.26 .533 .455 13 12 4 3 1
209 Princeton IVY 47.17 .376 .453 7 15 1 5 3
210 Omaha SUMMIT 47.16 .503 .452 26 23 5 5 4
211 Massachusetts MAC 47.16 .469 .452 11 17 4 5 2
212 USC Upstate BIGSTH 47.14 .509 .452 17 27 6 5 1
213 Sam Houston CUSA 47.09 .521 .450 14 15 5 4 2
214 UNLV MTNW 47.08 .411 .450 13 24 3 7 3
215 Illinois St. MVC 47.04 .503 .449 13 10 4 4 5
216 New Mexico St. CUSA 47.02 .318 .449 10 30 1 10 3
217 NJIT AMEAST 46.98 .543 .448 19 15 5 3 5
218 Ohio MAC 46.89 .441 .445 11 12 3 6 4
219 Bucknell PATR 46.86 .463 .444 16 15 3 5 5
220 George Mason A10 46.85 .455 .444 13 16 4 6 2
221 Campbell CAA 46.60 .473 .438 12 17 4 5 3
222 Towson CAA 46.60 .505 .438 21 17 3 3 6
223 Western Ky. CUSA 46.58 .467 .437 4 7 3 4 2
224 Jacksonville St. CUSA 46.56 .524 .437 19 13 6 5 3
225 Troy SUNBLT 46.55 .480 .436 16 15 4 5 3
226 North Florida ASUN 46.54 .445 .436 14 29 5 7 1
227 DePaul BIGEAS 46.45 .386 .434 11 19 3 8 1
228 Holy Cross PATR 46.30 .481 .430 12 12 4 5 4
229 UNC Greensboro SOCON 46.29 .387 .429 13 28 3 8 2
230 Lindenwood OVC 46.23 .521 .428 14 14 5 4 3
231 St. John's (NY) BIGEAS 46.16 .404 .426 7 17 2 6 4
232 NIU MAC 46.04 .437 .423 5 18 3 5 3
233 North Texas AMER 46.03 .445 .423 19 20 5 8 1
234 Nevada MTNW 46.02 .350 .422 8 28 2 8 2
235 Sacred Heart MAAC 46.02 .546 .422 21 14 7 5 1
236 Siena MAAC 45.98 .518 .422 14 13 5 4 6
237 San Jose St. MTNW 45.94 .339 .420 9 21 1 8 3
238 Northern Colo. BIGSKY 45.91 .382 .420 13 23 2 8 4
239 Seton Hall BIGEAS 45.87 .479 .419 14 14 3 4 5
240 Quinnipiac MAAC 45.81 .524 .417 19 16 4 3 5
241 UMass Lowell AMEAST 45.79 .469 .417 12 16 3 4 3
242 Lamar University STHLD 45.78 .456 .416 17 19 3 5 4
243 Evansville MVC 45.74 .524 .415 14 13 5 4 2
244 UTEP CUSA 45.59 .412 .411 10 14 3 7 2
245 Bryant AMEAST 45.55 .504 .410 12 9 3 3 5
246 Tarleton St. WAC 45.54 .524 .410 22 18 6 5 2
247 Central Ark. ASUN 45.51 .443 .409 20 15 4 7 1
248 George Washington A10 45.51 .455 .409 16 22 4 6 3
249 Longwood BIGSTH 45.44 .524 .407 18 14 6 5 2
250 Mercer SOCON 45.41 .506 .407 24 19 5 5 2
251 Toledo MAC 45.37 .477 .406 11 13 3 4 5
252 Portland St. BIGSKY 45.24 .346 .402 7 16 1 6 2
253 East Texas A&M STHLD 45.21 .464 .402 15 30 4 5 4
254 Richmond A10 45.16 .440 .400 11 13 3 6 4
255 Tennessee Tech OVC 45.15 .415 .400 16 23 2 6 5
256 Akron MAC 45.14 .431 .400 10 15 3 6 3
257 Wright St. HORZ 44.95 .518 .395 18 19 6 5 2
258 Houston Christian STHLD 44.84 .498 .392 14 16 6 6 1
259 Arkansas St. SUNBLT 44.79 .435 .391 18 15 2 5 4
260 Marist MAAC 44.75 .452 .390 13 18 3 5 4
261 UIC MVC 44.70 .431 .389 9 14 3 6 3
262 Eastern Ill. OVC 44.68 .560 .388 15 13 7 4 2
263 Maine AMEAST 44.68 .407 .388 10 16 2 5 2
264 Northeastern CAA 44.68 .387 .388 9 16 1 6 5
265 Vermont AMEAST 44.63 .500 .387 13 13 4 4 4
266 Lafayette PATR 44.62 .445 .387 11 22 3 5 4
267 UMBC AMEAST 44.56 .483 .385 15 14 5 6 3
268 Drexel CAA 44.55 .457 .385 9 13 2 4 7
269 Indiana St. MVC 44.48 .500 .383 22 22 4 4 5
270 FDU NEC 44.48 .497 .383 21 23 4 4 3
271 Saint Joseph's A10 44.45 .429 .382 15 22 4 7 1
272 Little Rock OVC 44.30 .505 .378 22 18 3 3 5
273 Lehigh PATR 44.26 .390 .378 10 24 2 6 3
274 New Hampshire AMEAST 44.14 .443 .374 14 19 2 4 4
275 UIW STHLD 44.08 .500 .373 14 14 4 4 3
276 Canisius MAAC 44.03 .445 .372 13 20 4 6 1
277 Southern Ind. OVC 43.93 .497 .369 18 21 5 5 3
278 Wagner NEC 43.93 .554 .369 18 12 4 2 5
279 Manhattan MAAC 43.90 .522 .369 19 17 5 4 4
280 Southern Utah WAC 43.86 .369 .368 11 24 2 7 2
281 Youngstown St. HORZ 43.65 .381 .362 16 36 3 8 2
282 North Dakota St. SUMMIT 43.58 .319 .361 10 26 2 9 0
283 Howard NEC 43.37 .527 .355 16 13 5 4 2
284 American AMER 43.34 .387 .355 11 18 2 7 3
285 UNI MVC 43.32 .434 .354 13 19 2 4 3
286 UT Martin OVC 43.22 .399 .352 7 11 1 6 6
287 Charleston So. BIGSTH 43.08 .496 .348 14 17 4 4 4
288 Niagara MAAC 42.94 .496 .345 19 22 5 5 1
289 Southeastern La. STHLD 42.92 .445 .344 11 18 3 5 3
290 UNC Asheville BIGSTH 42.84 .476 .343 8 9 4 5 2
291 Central Conn. St. NEC 42.74 .435 .340 8 14 2 4 3
292 Southern Miss. SUNBLT 42.65 .310 .338 9 41 2 10 1
293 Jackson St. SWAC 42.61 .496 .337 15 18 5 5 2
294 Queens (NC) ASUN 42.60 .411 .337 11 22 3 7 3
295 Louisiana Tech CUSA 42.48 .319 .334 7 26 2 11 1
296 Cleveland St. HORZ 42.46 .450 .333 14 21 3 5 4
297 UTRGV STHLD 42.30 .397 .330 8 17 3 7 1
298 Merrimack MAAC 42.08 .438 .324 25 29 4 7 2
299 LIU NEC 42.06 .571 .324 15 13 5 2 4
300 Wofford SOCON 42.02 .424 .323 11 20 3 7 5
301 Fairmont St. MEC 41.91 .345 .320 0 4 0 1 1
302 Robert Morris HORZ 41.89 .418 .320 8 18 3 6 2
303 UC Riverside BIGWES 41.72 .254 .316 5 35 0 11 2
304 IU Indy HORZ 41.59 .392 .313 13 16 3 8 1
305 Oakland HORZ 41.57 .399 .312 11 26 2 6 4
306 Austin Peay ASUN 41.19 .302 .304 4 26 0 9 4
307 Valparaiso MVC 40.99 .429 .299 16 23 3 6 3
308 Grambling SWAC 40.95 .424 .298 15 21 3 6 2
309 St. Thomas (MN) SUMMIT 40.91 .371 .298 7 18 2 6 1
310 Stetson ASUN 40.86 .372 .296 13 33 4 10 0
311 Central Mich. MAC 40.73 .268 .293 2 21 0 10 2
312 St. Bonaventure A10 40.48 .360 .288 9 21 2 8 2
313 A&M-Corpus Christi STHLD 40.44 .374 .287 10 19 1 6 4
314 Morehead St. OVC 40.44 .341 .287 6 27 3 10 0
315 UAlbany AMEAST 40.24 .352 .283 8 27 2 8 2
316 Alcorn SWAC 40.21 .468 .282 27 16 3 5 3
317 High Point BIGSTH 40.21 .302 .282 4 16 0 8 3
318 SIUE OVC 40.11 .342 .280 12 33 2 9 2
319 The Citadel SOCON 40.07 .446 .279 11 21 4 6 2
320 Saint Peter's MAAC 39.99 .451 .277 18 27 4 6 3
321 Chicago St. NEC 39.69 .424 .271 11 22 2 5 5
322 McNeese STHLD 39.58 .353 .268 13 41 2 8 3
323 Iona MAAC 39.57 .417 .268 15 32 4 8 3
324 Rider MAAC 39.48 .412 .266 10 20 2 6 5
325 Alabama A&M SWAC 39.46 .447 .266 10 19 5 7 0
326 Detroit Mercy HORZ 39.28 .281 .262 10 36 1 10 1
327 Southeast Mo. St. OVC 39.17 .277 .260 10 37 1 11 1
328 Green Bay HORZ 38.91 .399 .254 17 24 3 7 1
329 Winthrop BIGSTH 38.83 .371 .253 6 17 1 6 4
330 Stonehill NEC 38.74 .327 .251 15 25 1 8 2
331 West Ga. ASUN 38.73 .328 .250 10 38 3 11 0
332 Texas Southern SWAC 38.67 .341 .249 6 29 1 6 3
333 Mercyhurst NEC 38.26 .295 .241 9 37 1 10 2
334 Presbyterian BIGSTH 38.11 .402 .238 10 22 3 7 2
335 Temple AMER 38.00 .314 .236 13 24 2 11 0
336 Nicholls STHLD 37.87 .397 .233 12 21 3 7 1
337 Gardner-Webb BIGSTH 37.62 .378 .228 14 20 2 7 2
338 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 37.32 .291 .223 8 31 1 8 1
339 Prairie View SWAC 37.13 .316 .219 7 30 1 7 2
340 Delaware St. NEC 36.62 .417 .210 11 22 3 6 2
341 Southern U. SWAC 36.50 .338 .207 5 24 2 8 1
342 VMI SOCON 36.34 .261 .205 8 49 1 12 1
343 Hampton CAA 35.49 .345 .190 11 25 2 8 1
344 Le Moyne NEC 34.60 .299 .175 5 16 0 9 3
345 Purdue Fort Wayne HORZ 34.59 .236 .175 4 31 0 10 1
346 Saint Francis NEC 34.17 .264 .168 7 30 0 9 2
347 Western Ill. OVC 31.91 .194 .136 5 54 0 13 0
348 South Carolina St. INDEP 30.53 .250 .119 7 41 1 11 0
349 Alabama St. SWAC 28.25 .203 .094 4 36 0 10 0
350 Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 26.70 .144 .080 0 38 0 5 0
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Texas Tech BIG12 0 San Francisco WCC 2 0.466
2 Miami (OH) MAC 0 Morehead St. OVC 1 0.514
3 North Dakota SUMMIT 1 Nicholls STHLD 2 0.523
4 Purdue BIG10 2 Wisconsin BIG10 1 0.578
5 Vanderbilt SEC 1 Texas SEC 2 0.580
6 Niagara MAAC 2 Syracuse ACC 1 0.605
7 FGCU ASUN 0 Queens (NC) ASUN 1 0.607
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
More Details
I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
I make one adjustment...
...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.
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