Talisman Red's College Basketball Computer Ratings

Original Text Files

You are welcome to use and share these, with credit to talismanred.com. Thanks.

Description

The primary rating system shown here uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores.

Are your predictions any good?

In 2021-22, Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker website tracked multiple dozen different computer rating systems for the entire season. The opening Las Vegas line picked the correct team in 72.7% of games; ESPN BPI 72.6%; Jeff Sagarin 72.3%; Ken Pomeroy's "kenpom" 72.2%; and my system 71.6%. I suspect, but haven't confirmed, that the problems I had were in early-season predictions (I need a better preseason starting point!). But I'll note that with 5,000 games played, the difference between my 71.6% and the next best 72.2% is just 30 games. I'll take that.

In 2017-18, I took the time to compare my results game-by-game to the great system of Ken Pomeroy for part of the season. My system predicted 1152 of 1509 winners correctly (76%), and Pomeroy's had 1185 correct (78%). The mean error in his total scores was also better -- 13.8 points to mine at 14.9. Again, getting 75% or so correct is pretty reasonable for most rating systems, and there's no way I can emulate advanced systems like Ken's, so I'm okay with the outcome.

Source data

Division I score and schedule data are courtesy Ken Pomeroy. So many of us offer Ken a debt of gratitude for his dedication to college basketball analytics.

The menu says you produce more than one formula...

Yes, that's right. By the end of a season, there will be three! What can I say, I love this stuff. I believe all of these formulas can provide insight into the "true" assessment of a team's strength.

  • Talisman Red Formula: this was created by me, the site author (more details about me below). It's the one I showcase (obviously) and is the one I use to make the game predictions.
  • Wilson Formula: to honor the legacy of David Wilson, I continue to reproduce his formula for college basketball. See more details on that specific explanation page and more about David himself on the about David Wilson page.
  • Rothman Formula: another David(!), he produced rankings for decades, since the 60's I think. His Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments rankings are listed as a national championship selector in NCAA record books.

About the author

I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers).

Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.