Talisman Red's Mens College Soccer Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.

The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season. Also available, the ranked teams grouped by conference.

David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.

Warning! Since David's formula starts every season from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful. Be careful if you are looking here too soon!

                < DAVID ROTHMAN'S MENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
    BASED ON 1777 GAMES BETWEEN 213 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
                THROUGH GAMES OF FRIDAY 21 NOVEMBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L T
 
    1 Portland               WCC      59.46  .705  .764   30    8 12  1 2
    2 Princeton              IvyLea   58.94  .715  .753   32    5 14  1 2
    3 Maryland               BigTen   58.92  .696  .752   40   14 12  1 3
    4 Virginia               ACC      58.28  .651  .738   31   17 12  2 4
    5 San Diego              WCC      58.20  .662  .736   30   13 12  2 3
    6 Vermont                Americ   57.95  .702  .731   37   11 13  0 5
    7 NC State               ACC      57.52  .666  .721   40    7 12  2 4
    8 Furman                 SoCon    57.40  .698  .718   38   13 13  1 3
    9 Stanford               ACC      57.39  .648  .718   34   16 12  3 2
   10 SMU                    ACC      56.90  .604  .706   34   19 11  4 4
   11 Georgetown             BigEas   56.84  .643  .705   46   14 12  3 4
   12 High Point             BigSou   56.78  .688  .704   41   11 12  1 4
   13 Indiana                BigTen   56.53  .601  .697   38   24 11  5 1
   14 Bryant                 Americ   56.31  .693  .692   39   11 15  2 2
   15 Cornell                IvyLea   56.03  .660  .685   35    9 13  3 2
   16 Kansas City            Summit   55.80  .616  .680   33   19 11  3 5
   17 Denver                 Summit   55.70  .583  .677   35   24 12  6 2
   18 UNC Greensboro         SoCon    55.59  .630  .674   42   19 12  3 5
   19 Oregon St.             WCC      55.54  .573  .673   38   27  9  5 2
   20 Marshall               SunBel   55.49  .618  .672   37   21 11  3 5
   21 Washington             BigTen   55.37  .583  .669   43   21 11  6 2
   22 Saint Louis            Atlant   55.35  .626  .668   23   13 11  2 6
   23 Ga. Southern           SunBel   55.33  .659  .668   27   14 13  3 1
   24 Akron                  BigEas   55.28  .611  .667   28   12 11  4 3
   25 Duke                   ACC      55.18  .585  .664   26   13  8  3 6
   26 Michigan               BigTen   55.04  .613  .660   36   19 12  4 4
   27 West Virginia          SunBel   54.92  .619  .657   41   23 12  4 3
   28 North Carolina         ACC      54.68  .564  .651   30   16  9  5 5
   29 Fla. Atlantic          Americ   54.55  .612  .648   32   22 11  4 2
   30 Seton Hall             BigEas   54.45  .568  .645   30   15  7  3 8
   31 UConn                  BigEas   54.40  .602  .644   32   20 11  4 4
   32 San Francisco          WCC      54.30  .587  .641   25   16 10  5 1
   33 California Baptist     WAC      54.24  .613  .640   30   17  9  3 3
   34 Delaware               Summit   54.23  .658  .639   36   11 10  2 3
   35 UCLA                   BigTen   54.19  .535  .638   32   21  8  6 5
   36 Grand Canyon           WAC      54.16  .619  .638   31   14 11  3 5
   37 Wake Forest            ACC      54.13  .575  .637   39   25  7  3 6
   38 Gardner-Webb           BigSou   54.04  .655  .634   34   15 13  3 2
   39 UCF                    SunBel   53.98  .563  .633   38   25 10  6 3
   40 Hofstra                CAA      53.85  .619  .629   32   14 12  5 0
   41 Kentucky               SunBel   53.79  .575  .628   25   18  9  4 5
   42 Charlotte              Americ   53.71  .582  .626   33   12  8  4 4
   43 Clemson                ACC      53.70  .527  .625   36   23  7  6 3
   44 UC Irvine              BigWes   53.55  .584  .621   24   17 10  4 5
   45 South Fla.             Americ   53.48  .595  .620   33   25  9  3 5
   46 San Jose St.           WAC      53.36  .604  .616   35   20 11  4 4
   47 Notre Dame             ACC      53.34  .529  .616   23   22  8  6 4
   48 Creighton              BigEas   53.14  .567  .610   21   16  8  4 4
   49 Rutgers                BigTen   52.97  .530  .606   28   28  8  6 3
   50 Elon                   CAA      52.94  .607  .605   22   10  9  2 7
   51 Virginia Tech          ACC      52.94  .552  .605   24   19  7  4 5
   52 Syracuse               ACC      52.74  .513  .600   24   23  9  8 3
   53 North Florida          ASUN     52.73  .583  .599   29   18 10  5 2
   54 Utah Valley            WAC      52.55  .606  .594   30   14  8  3 3
   55 California             ACC      52.53  .500  .594   26   26  8  8 2
   56 St. John's (NY)        BigEas   52.20  .532  .585   26   21  8  6 4
   57 Northwestern           BigTen   51.83  .531  .575   22   20  8  6 3
   58 Santa Clara            WCC      51.83  .515  .574   23   23  6  5 6
   59 Harvard                IvyLea   51.79  .519  .573   23   19  6  5 5
   60 Drake                  MVC      51.74  .585  .572   20   13  7  2 7
   61 Pittsburgh             ACC      51.68  .484  .570   20   23  6  7 5
   62 VCU                    Atlant   51.64  .494  .569   21   27  6  6 4
   63 Wisconsin              BigTen   51.59  .480  .568   19   22  7  8 0
   64 UC Santa Barbara       BigWes   51.51  .512  .566   18   20  6  5 8
   65 Dayton                 Atlant   51.40  .588  .563   26   15  7  2 7
   66 Cal Poly               BigWes   51.32  .551  .560   29   14  9  6 4
   67 Penn                   IvyLea   51.09  .545  .554   27   12  7  5 4
   68 Missouri St.           Americ   51.04  .504  .552   21   17  6  6 4
   69 LMU (CA)               WCC      50.94  .486  .550   30   29  5  6 6
   70 Louisville             ACC      50.86  .470  .547   18   18  5  7 5
   71 Davidson               Atlant   50.84  .499  .547   22   23  7  7 3
   72 Belmont                MVC      50.82  .587  .546   28   13  8  3 6
   73 UIC                    MVC      50.75  .609  .544   39   25 10  3 5
   74 Lindenwood             OVC      50.71  .647  .543   39    9 13  3 4
   75 FIU                    Americ   50.70  .470  .543   24   29  7  9 3
   76 Cal St. Fullerton      BigWes   50.68  .513  .543   30   30  7  6 6
   77 American               Patrio   50.67  .517  .542   23   20  8  7 2
   78 Sacred Heart           MAAC     50.58  .568  .540   31   21  8  4 5
   79 Lehigh                 Patrio   50.57  .550  .539   30   30  9  5 6
   80 Providence             BigEas   50.56  .486  .539   23   21  6  7 3
   81 Stony Brook            CAA      50.51  .547  .538   28   22  8  5 5
   82 Siena                  MAAC     50.37  .558  .534   28   25  9  5 4
   83 Campbell               CAA      50.27  .553  .531   32   22  8  5 4
   84 Seattle U              WCC      50.15  .429  .528   26   35  3  7 6
   85 Boston U.              Patrio   50.14  .531  .527   30   26 10  8 0
   86 Bucknell               Patrio   50.05  .561  .525   28   21  8  4 6
   87 George Mason           Atlant   50.01  .501  .524   31   30  6  6 3
   88 South Carolina         SunBel   49.93  .480  .521   26   32  7  8 2
   89 Old Dominion           SunBel   49.87  .484  .519   22   24  4  5 8
   90 Bellarmine             ASUN     49.85  .555  .519   27   18  7  4 5
   91 Evansville             MVC      49.82  .519  .518   26   19  6  5 8
   92 Army West Point        Patrio   49.80  .536  .518   25   18  7  5 5
   93 NIU                    MVC      49.80  .524  .518   24   17  6  5 4
   94 Western Mich.          MVC      49.78  .480  .517   20   29  7  8 4
   95 Marist                 MAAC     49.76  .588  .517   26   21  8  3 4
   96 Brown                  IvyLea   49.73  .497  .516   17   20  6  6 2
   97 Michigan St.           BigTen   49.69  .449  .514   19   23  5  8 3
   98 FGCU                   ASUN     49.67  .480  .514   18   20  5  6 3
   99 Massachusetts          Summit   49.63  .505  .513   25   20  5  5 6
  100 UAB                    Americ   49.62  .480  .512   22   26  6  7 2
  101 CSUN                   BigWes   49.61  .497  .512    9   12  5  5 6
  102 Boston College         ACC      49.56  .422  .511   12   23  5  9 1
  103 Houston Christian      OVC      49.52  .589  .510   28   15 11  5 3
  104 FDU                    NEC      49.51  .609  .509   38   18 13  5 3
  105 Villanova              BigEas   49.42  .495  .507   18   24  6  6 5
  106 Fordham                Atlant   49.37  .533  .505   28   24  8  6 3
  107 UNLV                   WAC      49.31  .459  .504   16   24  4  6 5
  108 Fairfield              MAAC     49.28  .555  .503   32   20  8  5 4
  109 Penn St.               BigTen   49.23  .435  .502   20   23  4  8 4
  110 Col. of Charleston     CAA      49.19  .481  .500   20   24  6  7 3
  111 Cleveland St.          Horizo   49.15  .561  .499   25   18  8  4 6
  112 Ohio St.               BigTen   49.14  .426  .499   17   29  6 10 0
  113 Tulsa                  Americ   49.08  .438  .497   15   23  5  9 4
  114 San Diego St.          WAC      49.00  .429  .495   13   22  5  9 2
  115 Saint Mary's (CA)      WCC      48.97  .411  .494   15   21  2  7 6
  116 Jacksonville           ASUN     48.86  .469  .491   18   18  5  7 4
  117 Xavier                 BigEas   48.68  .485  .486   24   22  5  6 4
  118 Stetson                ASUN     48.56  .445  .482   17   22  5  8 2
  119 New Hampshire          Americ   48.51  .466  .481   17   22  5  7 5
  120 Lafayette              Patrio   48.43  .496  .479   17   22  7  7 7
  121 Gonzaga                WCC      48.41  .419  .478   18   27  4  8 2
  122 St. Thomas (MN)        Summit   48.36  .496  .477   16   20  5  5 5
  123 Oral Roberts           Summit   48.23  .412  .473   13   24  4  9 3
  124 Iona                   MAAC     48.20  .588  .472   34   18  9  4 4
  125 Columbia               IvyLea   48.16  .428  .471   18   18  3  7 4
  126 Green Bay              Horizo   48.13  .547  .470   22   19  9  6 2
  127 Marquette              BigEas   48.12  .485  .470   23   21  6  7 2
  128 UNCW                   CAA      48.09  .419  .469   19   28  4  8 2
  129 UC Davis               BigWes   48.08  .424  .469   19   27  4  9 5
  130 Liberty                OVC      47.97  .542  .466   27   24  8  5 6
  131 Purdue Fort Wayne      Horizo   47.85  .575  .463   23   15  7  3 5
  132 Queens (NC)            ASUN     47.82  .478  .462   13   20  5  6 5
  133 UNC Asheville          BigSou   47.59  .518  .455   21   20  7  6 2
  134 Utah Tech              WAC      47.58  .445  .455   22   31  4  7 5
  135 Georgia St.            SunBel   47.48  .451  .452   23   28  4  7 6
  136 Memphis                Americ   47.46  .425  .452   19   27  4  8 3
  137 Drexel                 CAA      47.40  .462  .450   17   22  4  6 5
  138 UC Riverside           BigWes   47.30  .436  .447   21   23  4  8 4
  139 LIU                    NEC      47.26  .576  .446   24   16  8  3 7
  140 Saint Joseph's         Atlant   47.24  .499  .445   21   22  6  6 5
  141 Duquesne               Atlant   47.19  .518  .444   20   19  7  6 2
  142 Presbyterian           BigSou   47.14  .469  .443   25   31  6  8 5
  143 Monmouth               CAA      47.12  .442  .442   17   25  5  8 2
  144 UC San Diego           BigWes   47.07  .381  .441    9   27  2  9 6
  145 UAlbany                Americ   47.04  .465  .440   17   21  4  6 6
  146 Omaha                  Summit   47.04  .401  .440   17   33  3  8 4
  147 Dartmouth              IvyLea   46.96  .415  .438   14   21  3  7 3
  148 Colgate                Patrio   46.93  .444  .437    7   17  4  7 5
  149 Northeastern           CAA      46.91  .459  .436   16   21  4  6 4
  150 James Madison          SunBel   46.88  .354  .435   10   23  1  9 5
  151 UMass Lowell           Americ   46.86  .478  .435   19   27  6  7 4
  152 UMBC                   Americ   46.79  .519  .433   19   15  6  5 5
  153 Bowling Green          MVC      46.77  .448  .432   16   25  5  8 4
  154 Loyola Chicago         Atlant   46.61  .457  .428   14   21  3  5 6
  155 La Salle               Atlant   46.48  .462  .424   20   25  3  5 7
  156 Central Ark.           ASUN     46.41  .390  .422   19   36  4 10 2
  157 Coastal Carolina       SunBel   46.39  .383  .422   17   26  3  9 2
  158 Rhode Island           Atlant   46.27  .421  .418   24   25  3  8 5
  159 Butler                 BigEas   46.25  .414  .418   17   31  5 10 2
  160 USC Upstate            BigSou   46.17  .413  .416   28   38  5 11 3
  161 Wofford                SoCon    46.02  .404  .412   28   43  5 11 2
  162 Robert Morris          Horizo   45.96  .520  .410   24   19  5  4 7
  163 Mercer                 SoCon    45.91  .412  .408   16   27  4  9 3
  164 IU Indy                Horizo   45.87  .481  .407   16   20  6  7 3
  165 UIW                    OVC      45.71  .451  .403   14   20  4  7 6
  166 Pacific                WCC      45.47  .350  .397   17   37  4 13 0
  167 SIUE                   OVC      45.46  .429  .396   19   25  6 11 2
  168 Lipscomb               ASUN     45.39  .375  .394   16   33  2  9 5
  169 Yale                   IvyLea   45.38  .358  .394   10   26  2  9 3
  170 Milwaukee              Horizo   45.10  .460  .387   31   28  4  7 7
  171 Sacramento St.         BigWes   45.06  .347  .385   12   36  2 11 4
  172 Holy Cross             Patrio   44.91  .421  .382   17   23  3  8 6
  173 DePaul                 BigEas   44.91  .399  .381   20   34  2  8 7
  174 Longwood               BigSou   44.84  .403  .380   19   33  3  8 4
  175 CSU Bakersfield        BigWes   44.81  .342  .379   13   32  2 11 3
  176 Niagara                MAAC     44.69  .495  .376   21   26  7  7 1
  177 Eastern Ill.           OVC      44.60  .418  .373   16   26  4  9 4
  178 Loyola Maryland        Patrio   44.54  .376  .372   11   27  3 10 3
  179 Western Ill.           OVC      44.46  .422  .370   17   32  5 10 4
  180 Saint Francis          NEC      44.41  .481  .368   24   30  8  9 1
  181 Quinnipiac             MAAC     44.19  .428  .362   22   37  6 10 1
  182 New Haven              NEC      44.04  .496  .359   16   20  5  5 6
  183 Bradley                MVC      44.04  .365  .358   17   35  1  8 6
  184 William & Mary         CAA      43.91  .320  .355   10   41  1 10 4
  185 NJIT                   Americ   43.89  .411  .354    7   19  3  8 5
  186 Oakland                Horizo   43.62  .390  .348   18   26  2  9 6
  187 Northern Ky.           Horizo   43.52  .392  .345   11   19  3  9 3
  188 Navy                   Patrio   43.52  .435  .345   17   24  3  7 7
  189 Detroit Mercy          Horizo   43.26  .400  .338   16   29  4 10 3
  190 Radford                BigSou   43.18  .360  .336   16   32  2 10 4
  191 Temple                 Americ   43.10  .286  .334    8   37  1 13 2
  192 St. Bonaventure        Atlant   43.09  .403  .334   23   30  3  8 3
  193 Manhattan              MAAC     43.03  .379  .332   14   27  2  8 4
  194 Binghamton             Americ   42.98  .365  .331   12   32  4 12 1
  195 Mount St. Mary's       MAAC     42.82  .410  .327   15   28  3  8 5
  196 Merrimack              MAAC     42.77  .431  .326   22   24  4  8 3
  197 Canisius               MAAC     42.50  .419  .319   16   30  5  9 1
  198 ETSU                   SoCon    42.36  .356  .316   16   24  1  8 4
  199 LeMoyne                NEC      42.22  .433  .312   20   25  5  9 2
  200 Air Force              WAC      41.98  .292  .306    9   34  1 12 2
  201 Southern Ind.          OVC      41.95  .333  .306   17   46  1 10 5
  202 George Washington      Atlant   41.95  .360  .306   14   30  2 10 4
  203 Stonehill              NEC      41.92  .414  .305   16   36  5 10 3
  204 TX Rio Grande          OVC      41.73  .282  .300    5   19  0  7 2
  205 Rider                  MAAC     41.11  .344  .286   14   30  2 11 3
  206 Saint Peter's          MAAC     41.06  .372  .285   19   30  3 10 2
  207 Wright St.             Horizo   40.75  .314  .277   15   34  2 12 1
  208 Mercyhurst             NEC      40.39  .389  .269   18   27  3 10 4
  209 Howard                 NEC      40.23  .378  .265   14   36  4 11 2
  210 Winthrop               BigSou   40.02  .270  .261    5   35  0 12 3
  211 VMI                    SoCon    39.90  .325  .258   11   36  2 11 2
  212 Central Conn. St.      NEC      36.10  .286  .183   11   37  1 14 2
  213 Chicago St.            NEC      35.71  .249  .176    7   59  1 15 1
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 UIW               OVC       2 SMU               ACC       1 0.487
   2 Hofstra           CAA       0 Binghamton        America   1 0.497
   3 Virginia          ACC       1 George Mason      Atlanti   4 0.549
   4 Houston Christian OVC       1 Southern Ind.     OVC       4 0.573
   5 Col. of Charlesto CAA       1 Furman            SoCon     0 0.589
   6 Elon              CAA       0 Longwood          BigSout   1 0.593
   7 Portland          WCC       0 Santa Clara       WCC       1 0.609
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings

More Details

I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)

David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.

If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.

I make one adjustment...

...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.