Talisman Red's Mens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season. Also available, the ranked teams grouped by conference.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Warning! Since David's formula starts every season from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful. Be careful if you are looking here too soon!
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S MENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 1484 GAMES BETWEEN 213 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF THURSDAY 30 OCTOBER 2025
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L T
1 Maryland BigTen 59.62 .722 .766 35 9 10 0 3
2 Stanford ACC 59.09 .698 .755 30 12 11 1 2
3 NC State ACC 59.02 .699 .753 36 3 11 1 3
4 Portland WCC 58.89 .688 .751 24 7 9 1 2
5 Virginia ACC 58.22 .656 .736 26 14 9 1 4
6 Princeton IvyLea 58.05 .697 .732 25 4 10 1 2
7 San Diego WCC 57.68 .639 .724 24 11 9 2 3
8 Indiana BigTen 57.47 .611 .719 33 22 10 4 1
9 Vermont Americ 57.46 .680 .719 28 10 9 0 5
10 Furman SoCon 57.06 .682 .709 31 11 10 1 3
11 Oregon St. WCC 56.98 .592 .707 26 19 7 3 2
12 Washington BigTen 56.80 .642 .703 38 12 10 3 2
13 Bryant Americ 56.63 .708 .699 31 6 12 1 2
14 High Point BigSou 56.45 .661 .694 28 11 9 1 4
15 Michigan BigTen 56.27 .653 .690 32 12 10 2 3
16 Georgetown BigEas 56.17 .625 .688 36 11 9 3 3
17 UNC Greensboro SoCon 56.05 .632 .685 32 17 9 2 4
18 Marshall SunBel 55.78 .633 .678 27 12 7 1 5
19 San Francisco WCC 55.75 .628 .677 21 10 9 3 1
20 Cornell IvyLea 55.67 .679 .675 29 7 10 2 1
21 Clemson ACC 55.66 .575 .675 33 18 7 4 2
22 Kentucky SunBel 55.41 .625 .669 22 14 8 2 3
23 Ga. Southern SunBel 55.39 .671 .668 19 9 11 2 1
24 Saint Louis Atlant 55.35 .614 .667 16 10 8 2 4
25 Kansas City Summit 55.30 .620 .666 22 10 8 2 4
26 Fla. Atlantic Americ 55.30 .624 .666 24 17 9 3 1
27 Seton Hall BigEas 55.29 .599 .666 27 11 7 2 6
28 Akron BigEas 55.07 .614 .660 24 10 9 3 3
29 SMU ACC 55.05 .581 .660 22 13 7 3 4
30 North Carolina ACC 54.93 .598 .657 24 9 8 3 4
31 Duke ACC 54.91 .584 .656 23 11 6 2 6
32 California Baptist WAC 54.89 .630 .656 26 13 8 2 3
33 Denver Summit 54.74 .535 .652 22 20 8 6 1
34 Delaware Summit 54.70 .699 .651 32 6 9 1 2
35 Charlotte Americ 54.37 .593 .642 31 10 8 4 2
36 Notre Dame ACC 54.15 .555 .636 21 16 7 4 4
37 West Virginia SunBel 54.14 .622 .636 28 14 9 3 2
38 Gardner-Webb BigSou 54.09 .667 .635 28 11 11 2 2
39 Utah Valley WAC 54.03 .646 .633 28 11 8 2 2
40 Wake Forest ACC 53.88 .584 .629 32 20 6 2 6
41 South Fla. Americ 53.87 .608 .629 27 19 8 2 5
42 Hofstra CAA 53.83 .623 .628 27 12 10 4 0
43 Creighton BigEas 53.71 .596 .625 20 14 8 3 3
44 Virginia Tech ACC 53.64 .578 .623 20 14 7 3 4
45 Rutgers BigTen 53.64 .555 .623 27 22 8 5 2
46 North Florida ASUN 53.26 .611 .613 23 10 9 4 0
47 UConn BigEas 53.20 .593 .611 25 15 8 3 4
48 San Jose St. WAC 53.11 .592 .609 25 16 8 3 4
49 Drake MVC 52.86 .603 .602 14 8 6 1 6
50 UC Irvine BigWes 52.76 .573 .599 18 12 7 3 5
51 St. John's (NY) BigEas 52.43 .537 .590 18 14 7 5 3
52 Santa Clara WCC 52.37 .521 .588 17 14 5 4 5
53 Grand Canyon WAC 52.25 .581 .585 20 11 7 3 4
54 Lindenwood OVC 51.98 .701 .578 36 5 12 1 3
55 LMU (CA) WCC 51.96 .505 .577 26 21 5 5 4
56 UC Santa Barbara BigWes 51.90 .514 .575 13 15 5 4 7
57 Missouri St. Americ 51.74 .523 .571 19 14 6 5 3
58 VCU Atlant 51.71 .495 .570 17 22 5 5 4
59 Elon CAA 51.61 .578 .567 12 6 6 2 6
60 Pittsburgh ACC 51.58 .480 .567 19 22 5 6 4
61 Cal St. Fullerton BigWes 51.55 .531 .566 30 29 7 5 5
62 UCLA BigTen 51.46 .462 .563 16 18 4 6 4
63 Cal Poly BigWes 51.46 .542 .563 25 13 7 5 4
64 Penn IvyLea 51.42 .574 .562 24 10 6 3 4
65 Louisville ACC 51.40 .486 .562 18 15 5 6 4
66 Bellarmine ASUN 51.38 .588 .561 23 13 7 3 3
67 American Patrio 51.35 .501 .560 16 15 6 6 2
68 Syracuse ACC 51.34 .520 .560 17 14 7 6 2
69 Northwestern BigTen 51.34 .518 .560 18 18 6 5 3
70 Wisconsin BigTen 51.14 .477 .554 17 20 6 7 0
71 UCF SunBel 51.10 .509 .553 25 17 5 5 3
72 UIC MVC 51.07 .623 .552 34 19 8 2 4
73 Bucknell Patrio 51.00 .575 .550 26 18 7 3 5
74 Davidson Atlant 50.95 .518 .549 19 19 6 5 3
75 Belmont MVC 50.91 .582 .548 21 11 6 2 6
76 Harvard IvyLea 50.90 .524 .547 19 15 5 4 4
77 Lehigh Patrio 50.77 .546 .544 27 28 8 5 3
78 South Carolina SunBel 50.74 .514 .543 24 27 7 6 2
79 NIU MVC 50.68 .549 .541 20 14 5 3 4
80 Boston U. Patrio 50.59 .540 .539 25 21 8 6 0
81 FIU Americ 50.55 .464 .538 21 26 6 8 2
82 Sacred Heart MAAC 50.45 .568 .535 22 13 6 3 4
83 George Mason Atlant 50.28 .501 .530 29 28 5 5 3
84 Brown IvyLea 50.19 .496 .528 16 19 5 5 2
85 Providence BigEas 50.13 .484 .526 18 15 5 6 2
86 FGCU ASUN 50.10 .499 .525 17 18 5 5 3
87 UNLV WAC 50.05 .475 .524 14 21 4 5 5
88 Campbell CAA 50.02 .558 .523 24 16 7 4 4
89 California ACC 50.01 .461 .522 21 24 5 7 2
90 Marist MAAC 49.99 .579 .522 22 20 7 3 3
91 San Diego St. WAC 49.90 .460 .519 12 16 5 7 2
92 Evansville MVC 49.90 .522 .519 20 15 4 3 8
93 Army West Point Patrio 49.68 .522 .513 21 17 5 4 5
94 Massachusetts Summit 49.64 .523 .512 23 17 5 4 6
95 UAB Americ 49.61 .458 .511 20 26 5 7 2
96 Michigan St. BigTen 49.51 .461 .508 15 18 5 7 2
97 UNCW CAA 49.51 .453 .508 18 22 4 6 2
98 CSUN BigWes 49.43 .497 .506 8 11 5 5 5
99 Seattle U WCC 49.38 .414 .505 21 29 2 6 5
100 Xavier BigEas 49.34 .506 .504 23 18 5 5 3
101 Fordham Atlant 49.30 .536 .502 22 22 7 5 2
102 Marquette BigEas 49.30 .525 .502 23 18 6 5 2
103 Stony Brook CAA 49.28 .521 .502 21 18 5 4 5
104 FDU NEC 49.25 .593 .501 30 14 9 4 3
105 Fairfield MAAC 49.23 .564 .501 23 13 7 4 3
106 Penn St. BigTen 49.23 .444 .500 20 22 4 7 3
107 Old Dominion SunBel 49.17 .480 .499 18 20 4 5 5
108 Villanova BigEas 49.12 .495 .497 16 21 5 5 5
109 Ohio St. BigTen 49.11 .416 .497 15 27 5 9 0
110 Dayton Atlant 49.03 .550 .495 18 11 4 2 6
111 Boston College ACC 48.94 .412 .492 8 18 4 8 1
112 Houston Christian OVC 48.87 .570 .490 21 13 9 5 2
113 UNC Asheville BigSou 48.85 .565 .490 19 13 7 4 2
114 Oral Roberts Summit 48.79 .435 .488 12 18 4 7 2
115 Columbia IvyLea 48.76 .461 .487 18 16 3 5 4
116 Cleveland St. Horizo 48.72 .563 .486 18 13 5 2 6
117 Liberty OVC 48.70 .566 .486 26 22 7 3 6
118 Col. of Charleston CAA 48.67 .462 .485 18 23 5 7 3
119 Siena MAAC 48.62 .517 .483 21 22 6 5 3
120 Tulsa Americ 48.58 .427 .482 12 18 4 8 3
121 Queens (NC) ASUN 48.46 .477 .479 12 19 5 6 4
122 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 48.40 .410 .477 14 19 1 5 6
123 Central Ark. ASUN 48.26 .417 .473 17 28 4 8 2
124 Gonzaga WCC 48.21 .417 .472 13 24 3 6 2
125 St. Thomas (MN) Summit 48.18 .516 .471 15 18 5 4 4
126 UC Davis BigWes 48.13 .409 .469 15 23 3 8 4
127 Purdue Fort Wayne Horizo 47.93 .576 .464 17 11 5 2 4
128 UC Riverside BigWes 47.87 .449 .462 19 20 4 7 4
129 Presbyterian BigSou 47.80 .482 .460 19 21 5 6 5
130 New Hampshire Americ 47.79 .477 .460 14 17 4 5 4
131 Memphis Americ 47.75 .439 .459 16 23 4 7 3
132 Utah Tech WAC 47.68 .460 .457 20 24 4 6 4
133 LIU NEC 47.68 .573 .457 20 14 6 2 7
134 Duquesne Atlant 47.65 .538 .456 20 18 7 5 2
135 Georgia St. SunBel 47.62 .500 .455 21 21 4 4 6
136 UMass Lowell Americ 47.62 .514 .455 12 17 6 5 2
137 Monmouth CAA 47.51 .458 .452 17 23 5 7 2
138 Saint Joseph's Atlant 47.48 .517 .451 20 20 6 5 4
139 Drexel CAA 47.45 .479 .450 17 20 4 5 5
140 Omaha Summit 47.44 .409 .450 16 28 3 7 3
141 Dartmouth IvyLea 47.41 .449 .449 13 17 3 5 3
142 Iona MAAC 47.40 .567 .449 22 14 6 3 4
143 Northeastern CAA 47.39 .478 .449 16 18 4 5 4
144 Bowling Green MVC 47.31 .462 .447 15 20 5 7 3
145 Jacksonville ASUN 47.13 .420 .441 13 16 3 7 3
146 Loyola Chicago Atlant 47.09 .474 .440 14 20 3 4 6
147 La Salle Atlant 47.05 .477 .439 18 21 3 4 6
148 Colgate Patrio 46.94 .456 .436 7 15 4 6 4
149 UAlbany Americ 46.90 .479 .435 13 15 4 5 4
150 Green Bay Horizo 46.87 .499 .434 13 14 6 6 1
151 Western Mich. MVC 46.79 .408 .432 12 25 3 7 3
152 UMBC Americ 46.44 .500 .422 14 14 5 5 3
153 UC San Diego BigWes 46.43 .366 .422 8 25 1 8 6
154 James Madison SunBel 46.43 .331 .422 8 21 1 9 3
155 Robert Morris Horizo 46.31 .526 .419 18 14 3 2 7
156 Lafayette Patrio 46.27 .462 .417 9 14 4 6 5
157 Stetson ASUN 46.26 .385 .417 11 20 3 8 1
158 IU Indy Horizo 46.21 .478 .416 13 17 5 6 3
159 Mercer SoCon 46.18 .440 .415 16 22 4 7 3
160 Coastal Carolina SunBel 46.07 .377 .412 15 22 3 8 0
161 Butler BigEas 45.96 .421 .409 15 27 5 9 1
162 Wofford SoCon 45.81 .405 .405 24 36 4 9 2
163 Eastern Ill. OVC 45.81 .442 .405 15 23 4 7 4
164 Rhode Island Atlant 45.74 .415 .403 23 24 3 8 4
165 USC Upstate BigSou 45.73 .398 .403 23 32 4 10 2
166 Milwaukee Horizo 45.62 .452 .400 26 23 3 6 6
167 Sacramento St. BigWes 45.56 .354 .398 11 34 2 10 4
168 Lipscomb ASUN 45.56 .354 .398 10 30 1 8 5
169 Holy Cross Patrio 45.47 .446 .396 15 19 3 6 6
170 CSU Bakersfield BigWes 45.38 .350 .393 13 30 2 10 3
171 Niagara MAAC 45.36 .518 .393 18 20 6 5 1
172 DePaul BigEas 45.12 .404 .386 17 30 2 7 6
173 Pacific WCC 45.03 .344 .384 10 29 3 10 0
174 UIW OVC 45.00 .431 .383 13 20 3 7 6
175 SIUE OVC 44.88 .400 .380 15 22 4 10 2
176 Northern Ky. Horizo 44.83 .417 .378 10 15 3 7 3
177 Merrimack MAAC 44.49 .462 .369 19 19 4 6 3
178 Loyola Maryland Patrio 44.35 .378 .366 11 25 3 9 2
179 ETSU SoCon 44.30 .378 .364 14 20 1 6 4
180 Bradley MVC 44.26 .391 .363 15 26 1 6 6
181 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 44.23 .437 .363 14 23 3 6 5
182 Western Ill. OVC 44.22 .413 .362 15 30 4 9 4
183 Yale IvyLea 44.15 .337 .361 9 23 1 8 3
184 Oakland Horizo 44.13 .386 .360 15 21 1 7 6
185 Longwood BigSou 44.10 .376 .359 14 30 2 8 4
186 William & Mary CAA 44.01 .326 .357 10 40 1 9 4
187 New Haven NEC 44.00 .477 .356 15 20 4 5 5
188 Navy Patrio 43.90 .463 .354 16 20 3 5 7
189 Saint Francis NEC 43.89 .458 .354 20 29 6 8 1
190 NJIT Americ 43.42 .417 .341 5 16 3 7 4
191 Radford BigSou 43.39 .360 .341 15 29 2 9 3
192 St. Bonaventure Atlant 43.34 .421 .339 23 25 3 7 3
193 Detroit Mercy Horizo 43.29 .405 .338 13 25 4 9 2
194 Temple Americ 43.22 .290 .336 8 35 1 12 2
195 Quinnipiac MAAC 43.15 .397 .335 17 30 4 9 1
196 Binghamton Americ 43.11 .387 .334 12 25 4 10 1
197 Air Force WAC 42.72 .305 .324 9 28 1 10 2
198 Manhattan MAAC 42.53 .382 .319 12 23 2 7 3
199 Stonehill NEC 42.39 .420 .316 15 34 5 9 2
200 Southern Ind. OVC 42.23 .342 .312 16 41 1 9 5
201 Wright St. Horizo 42.11 .329 .309 14 29 2 10 1
202 Canisius MAAC 42.02 .408 .307 14 27 4 8 1
203 LeMoyne NEC 41.78 .393 .301 13 22 3 8 2
204 George Washington Atlant 41.28 .351 .289 12 28 2 10 3
205 Saint Peter's MAAC 41.02 .397 .283 19 25 3 8 2
206 TX Rio Grande OVC 40.89 .282 .280 5 19 0 7 2
207 Mercyhurst NEC 40.39 .383 .268 13 22 2 8 4
208 Howard NEC 40.22 .380 .264 13 34 4 10 1
209 Winthrop BigSou 40.10 .277 .262 5 30 0 11 3
210 Rider MAAC 40.06 .321 .261 11 28 1 10 3
211 VMI SoCon 38.80 .302 .234 8 30 1 10 2
212 Central Conn. St. NEC 37.07 .301 .200 10 29 1 11 2
213 Chicago St. NEC 35.57 .238 .173 7 53 1 13 0
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Hofstra CAA 0 Binghamton America 1 0.502
2 UIW OVC 2 SMU ACC 1 0.525
3 Virginia ACC 1 George Mason Atlanti 4 0.560
4 Col. of Charlesto CAA 1 Furman SoCon 0 0.582
5 Indiana BigTen 0 Michigan St. BigTen 1 0.598
6 Houston Christian OVC 1 Southern Ind. OVC 4 0.606
7 Stanford ACC 0 Louisville ACC 1 0.607
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
More Details
I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
I make one adjustment...
...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.
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