Talisman Red's Mens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season. Also available, the ranked teams grouped by conference.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Warning! Since David's formula starts every season from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful. Be careful if you are looking here too soon!
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S MENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 1049 GAMES BETWEEN 213 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF WEDNESDAY 8 OCTOBER 2025
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L T
1 Portland WCC 59.76 .745 .769 17 3 7 0 1
2 Princeton IvyLea 59.27 .712 .759 16 3 7 1 0
3 Ga. Southern SunBel 58.49 .737 .742 13 4 8 0 1
4 Stanford ACC 58.38 .702 .740 27 12 9 1 1
5 NC State ACC 58.37 .695 .739 29 2 8 1 2
6 Virginia ACC 58.02 .661 .732 18 11 7 1 2
7 Duke ACC 57.91 .675 .729 23 6 6 0 4
8 Vermont Americ 57.53 .678 .720 23 9 7 0 4
9 Bryant Americ 57.13 .749 .711 20 4 9 0 1
10 Furman SoCon 57.05 .644 .709 21 8 6 1 3
11 UNC Greensboro SoCon 57.02 .668 .709 25 13 7 1 2
12 San Diego WCC 56.96 .636 .707 16 9 6 1 3
13 Utah Valley WAC 56.75 .755 .702 20 1 6 0 1
14 Maryland BigTen 56.69 .695 .701 24 7 6 0 3
15 Indiana BigTen 56.59 .599 .699 21 15 7 3 1
16 High Point BigSou 56.45 .640 .695 20 10 6 1 3
17 North Carolina ACC 56.32 .627 .692 16 6 6 1 4
18 Delaware Summit 56.23 .759 .690 26 4 8 0 1
19 Gardner-Webb BigSou 55.92 .711 .682 26 7 10 1 1
20 Rutgers BigTen 55.91 .627 .682 21 11 7 2 2
21 Michigan BigTen 55.80 .643 .679 20 8 6 1 3
22 Clemson ACC 55.78 .601 .679 24 13 5 2 2
23 Oregon St. WCC 55.76 .570 .678 14 10 5 3 0
24 West Virginia SunBel 55.62 .659 .675 22 10 6 1 2
25 SMU ACC 55.58 .587 .674 17 9 5 2 3
26 Fla. Atlantic Americ 55.45 .647 .671 15 10 7 2 0
27 Seton Hall BigEas 55.34 .583 .668 19 8 5 2 4
28 Notre Dame ACC 55.28 .602 .666 18 10 6 2 3
29 Georgetown BigEas 55.19 .582 .664 26 10 6 3 3
30 Washington BigTen 55.07 .605 .661 29 11 7 3 2
31 Marshall SunBel 55.02 .572 .660 16 11 3 1 4
32 Saint Louis Atlant 54.89 .595 .656 10 7 6 2 3
33 Akron BigEas 54.64 .597 .650 17 6 7 3 2
34 San Jose St. WAC 54.64 .665 .650 17 7 7 1 2
35 South Fla. Americ 54.51 .649 .647 19 10 6 0 5
36 California Baptist WAC 54.45 .638 .645 16 9 5 1 2
37 Wake Forest ACC 54.42 .591 .644 26 15 5 2 3
38 Charlotte Americ 54.17 .563 .638 18 9 5 3 2
39 San Francisco WCC 54.09 .607 .636 13 6 5 2 1
40 Louisville ACC 53.88 .532 .630 15 8 5 4 2
41 Boston U. Patrio 53.85 .611 .629 21 14 7 3 0
42 UConn BigEas 53.76 .619 .627 23 11 7 2 3
43 Kentucky SunBel 53.75 .673 .627 15 6 5 0 3
44 South Carolina SunBel 53.67 .596 .625 21 17 7 3 1
45 Virginia Tech ACC 53.61 .556 .623 13 9 4 2 4
46 Cornell IvyLea 53.47 .686 .619 18 2 6 1 1
47 Marist MAAC 53.47 .647 .619 17 12 6 1 2
48 Denver Summit 53.31 .521 .615 17 18 6 5 0
49 Grand Canyon WAC 53.19 .626 .612 16 7 6 2 1
50 North Florida ASUN 53.19 .613 .612 18 9 7 3 0
51 Lindenwood OVC 53.15 .762 .611 27 2 9 0 1
52 Creighton BigEas 53.13 .571 .610 14 12 6 3 2
53 Kansas City Summit 52.92 .557 .605 14 9 4 2 4
54 St. John's (NY) BigEas 52.85 .551 .603 14 10 5 3 3
55 Elon CAA 52.78 .599 .601 10 4 5 1 5
56 Hofstra CAA 52.72 .578 .599 15 8 7 4 0
57 Drake MVC 52.70 .618 .599 11 7 4 0 5
58 VCU Atlant 52.65 .492 .597 14 20 4 4 3
59 Brown IvyLea 52.63 .599 .597 13 10 5 2 1
60 Belmont MVC 52.55 .653 .595 18 6 6 0 5
61 CSUN BigWes 52.53 .605 .594 8 5 5 1 4
62 Harvard IvyLea 52.47 .503 .592 9 7 3 3 3
63 George Mason Atlant 52.39 .502 .590 20 19 4 4 1
64 LMU (CA) WCC 51.90 .563 .577 22 13 5 3 2
65 Fordham Atlant 51.87 .612 .576 17 9 6 2 2
66 FIU Americ 51.78 .498 .574 17 19 5 5 2
67 Santa Clara WCC 51.51 .531 .566 14 10 3 2 5
68 Bucknell Patrio 51.49 .576 .566 22 16 5 2 4
69 Northwestern BigTen 51.41 .547 .563 15 14 6 4 1
70 UIC MVC 51.38 .657 .562 29 14 7 1 3
71 Penn IvyLea 51.27 .569 .559 15 7 4 2 3
72 Marquette BigEas 51.26 .556 .559 18 14 5 3 2
73 Syracuse ACC 51.07 .527 .554 11 8 5 4 2
74 Army West Point Patrio 51.03 .499 .553 11 12 3 3 4
75 Penn St. BigTen 51.03 .504 .553 17 14 4 4 2
76 American Patrio 50.89 .475 .549 11 11 4 5 1
77 UC Irvine BigWes 50.79 .526 .546 11 10 4 3 3
78 Providence BigEas 50.71 .479 .544 15 12 4 5 1
79 Xavier BigEas 50.68 .563 .543 21 12 5 3 2
80 UC Santa Barbara BigWes 50.60 .471 .541 8 13 3 4 4
81 Pittsburgh ACC 50.57 .473 .540 14 17 4 5 2
82 California ACC 50.47 .469 .537 12 18 4 5 2
83 FDU NEC 50.36 .596 .534 21 11 7 3 2
84 Fairfield MAAC 50.32 .508 .533 16 11 4 4 1
85 Massachusetts Summit 50.28 .531 .532 20 14 4 3 4
86 Michigan St. BigTen 50.22 .501 .530 15 14 5 5 0
87 UNCW CAA 50.20 .475 .530 15 13 3 4 2
88 Ohio St. BigTen 50.07 .501 .526 12 11 5 5 0
89 Wisconsin BigTen 50.06 .469 .526 10 12 4 5 0
90 Stetson ASUN 50.05 .432 .526 10 13 3 5 0
91 Drexel CAA 49.94 .527 .522 16 15 4 3 3
92 Queens (NC) ASUN 49.86 .518 .520 8 13 5 4 1
93 Lehigh Patrio 49.82 .547 .519 18 17 5 3 3
94 Bellarmine ASUN 49.79 .536 .518 14 9 4 3 2
95 Seattle U WCC 49.77 .469 .518 15 17 2 3 4
96 Col. of Charleston CAA 49.67 .429 .515 14 21 4 7 1
97 Sacred Heart MAAC 49.63 .533 .514 14 11 4 3 2
98 Cal St. Fullerton BigWes 49.59 .494 .513 18 23 4 4 4
99 Dayton Atlant 49.53 .534 .511 15 9 3 2 5
100 Monmouth CAA 49.48 .524 .510 14 15 5 4 1
101 Cal Poly BigWes 49.45 .509 .509 18 11 4 4 3
102 Campbell CAA 49.38 .527 .507 13 10 4 3 4
103 UCLA BigTen 49.35 .419 .506 9 13 2 5 3
104 Colgate Patrio 49.32 .524 .505 7 8 4 3 3
105 Stony Brook CAA 49.32 .500 .505 13 13 3 3 4
106 Davidson Atlant 49.28 .444 .504 13 17 3 5 2
107 Purdue Fort Wayne Horizo 49.28 .640 .504 15 7 4 0 4
108 Boston College ACC 49.25 .438 .503 6 14 4 6 0
109 UNLV WAC 49.21 .461 .502 6 13 3 4 2
110 FGCU ASUN 49.03 .445 .497 13 16 3 5 2
111 Missouri St. Americ 49.00 .451 .496 14 13 3 5 2
112 Liberty OVC 48.91 .553 .494 18 16 5 3 2
113 Houston Christian OVC 48.84 .582 .492 14 9 6 3 1
114 Evansville MVC 48.81 .504 .491 14 11 3 3 5
115 Old Dominion SunBel 48.79 .499 .490 16 17 4 4 2
116 UCF SunBel 48.74 .406 .489 12 12 2 5 1
117 Siena MAAC 48.73 .494 .489 14 18 4 4 1
118 Villanova BigEas 48.37 .493 .479 11 16 4 4 3
119 Cleveland St. Horizo 48.32 .529 .477 10 9 3 2 4
120 UNC Asheville BigSou 48.29 .559 .476 13 11 5 3 1
121 Duquesne Atlant 48.26 .553 .475 15 13 5 3 2
122 UC Riverside BigWes 48.17 .447 .473 12 14 2 4 4
123 Presbyterian BigSou 48.02 .452 .469 14 16 3 5 3
124 LIU NEC 47.99 .528 .468 13 11 3 2 5
125 New Hampshire Americ 47.92 .469 .466 9 13 3 4 3
126 Omaha Summit 47.79 .403 .462 10 18 2 5 2
127 UIW OVC 47.77 .500 .462 10 10 3 3 4
128 IU Indy Horizo 47.76 .524 .461 11 12 4 3 3
129 NIU MVC 47.68 .507 .459 14 10 3 3 2
130 UMass Lowell Americ 47.61 .519 .457 11 15 5 4 1
131 Georgia St. SunBel 47.60 .533 .457 16 13 3 2 4
132 Green Bay Horizo 47.40 .498 .452 9 10 4 4 1
133 St. Thomas (MN) Summit 47.37 .559 .451 12 10 4 2 3
134 Iona MAAC 47.35 .570 .450 16 12 4 2 2
135 Gonzaga WCC 47.17 .406 .445 4 15 2 4 1
136 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 47.13 .399 .444 10 14 0 3 5
137 Wofford SoCon 47.07 .447 .442 16 22 4 6 1
138 Bowling Green MVC 47.04 .452 .441 11 16 4 6 2
139 Memphis Americ 47.02 .446 .441 12 18 3 5 3
140 Dartmouth IvyLea 47.02 .424 .441 10 12 1 3 3
141 Oral Roberts Summit 47.00 .414 .440 10 17 3 6 1
142 Loyola Chicago Atlant 46.99 .496 .440 12 15 3 3 4
143 Lafayette Patrio 46.98 .449 .440 5 9 3 5 3
144 James Madison SunBel 46.90 .327 .437 4 13 1 6 1
145 Saint Joseph's Atlant 46.86 .527 .436 13 12 4 3 3
146 Robert Morris Horizo 46.80 .534 .435 14 10 3 2 4
147 San Diego St. WAC 46.71 .408 .432 6 11 3 6 0
148 Columbia IvyLea 46.70 .426 .432 7 8 1 3 3
149 UMBC Americ 46.65 .500 .431 8 8 4 4 1
150 USC Upstate BigSou 46.61 .431 .430 18 23 4 7 1
151 UAB Americ 46.54 .419 .428 13 17 3 6 1
152 Tulsa Americ 46.46 .378 .425 8 14 2 7 2
153 Rhode Island Atlant 46.38 .405 .423 18 21 2 6 3
154 Central Ark. ASUN 46.32 .385 .422 8 18 2 6 2
155 UAlbany Americ 46.27 .443 .420 8 9 2 4 3
156 New Haven NEC 46.20 .525 .418 11 11 4 3 3
157 UC San Diego BigWes 46.19 .331 .418 4 17 0 6 4
158 Bradley MVC 45.88 .438 .410 10 14 1 3 5
159 Milwaukee Horizo 45.66 .442 .404 20 16 2 5 5
160 DePaul BigEas 45.66 .451 .404 14 20 2 4 6
161 UC Davis BigWes 45.50 .337 .399 6 15 0 6 4
162 La Salle Atlant 45.36 .418 .396 13 18 1 4 5
163 Western Mich. MVC 45.35 .354 .395 8 22 2 7 1
164 Longwood BigSou 45.34 .356 .395 8 21 2 7 1
165 William & Mary CAA 45.09 .347 .388 8 27 1 6 3
166 Northeastern CAA 45.07 .410 .388 10 14 2 5 2
167 Lipscomb ASUN 44.92 .325 .384 5 22 1 7 2
168 Sacramento St. BigWes 44.92 .342 .384 8 24 1 7 3
169 Temple Americ 44.82 .319 .381 5 21 1 8 2
170 Northern Ky. Horizo 44.79 .381 .380 6 11 1 5 3
171 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 44.63 .407 .376 11 17 1 4 4
172 Butler BigEas 44.53 .403 .373 11 22 4 8 0
173 CSU Bakersfield BigWes 44.44 .331 .371 6 19 1 7 2
174 Binghamton Americ 44.39 .428 .370 12 20 4 7 1
175 Detroit Mercy Horizo 44.35 .448 .369 11 16 4 6 1
176 Jacksonville ASUN 44.13 .334 .363 6 11 1 6 1
177 Niagara MAAC 43.96 .493 .359 12 16 4 4 0
178 Loyola Maryland Patrio 43.70 .345 .352 9 23 2 8 1
179 Holy Cross Patrio 43.65 .426 .351 11 15 2 5 4
180 Saint Francis NEC 43.60 .406 .349 12 25 3 6 1
181 Navy Patrio 43.59 .477 .349 10 10 3 4 4
182 Mercer SoCon 43.58 .349 .349 5 12 1 6 2
183 Pacific WCC 43.55 .338 .348 6 20 2 7 0
184 ETSU SoCon 43.48 .364 .346 6 12 0 4 4
185 Western Ill. OVC 43.47 .392 .346 10 23 3 7 1
186 Quinnipiac MAAC 43.46 .371 .346 13 24 2 6 1
187 Yale IvyLea 43.43 .346 .345 8 17 1 6 2
188 St. Bonaventure Atlant 43.40 .450 .344 15 15 3 5 2
189 Radford BigSou 43.01 .391 .334 12 18 2 6 2
190 Oakland Horizo 42.90 .339 .332 11 18 0 6 4
191 Canisius MAAC 42.82 .430 .330 11 20 3 5 1
192 NJIT Americ 42.78 .414 .329 3 10 2 5 3
193 Utah Tech WAC 42.78 .373 .328 8 18 1 5 3
194 Wright St. Horizo 42.70 .303 .326 9 24 1 8 1
195 Merrimack MAAC 42.61 .446 .324 12 11 3 5 1
196 SIUE OVC 42.55 .338 .323 8 16 2 8 0
197 Southern Ind. OVC 42.43 .302 .320 9 28 1 7 1
198 George Washington Atlant 42.42 .369 .319 7 20 2 7 2
199 Eastern Ill. OVC 42.27 .343 .316 5 16 1 6 2
200 Coastal Carolina SunBel 41.73 .302 .303 8 17 1 6 0
201 Air Force WAC 41.44 .327 .296 8 17 1 6 1
202 Manhattan MAAC 41.43 .294 .296 6 19 0 5 2
203 Saint Peter's MAAC 41.25 .384 .291 14 17 2 6 1
204 Mercyhurst NEC 40.81 .360 .281 5 15 1 6 3
205 LeMoyne NEC 40.70 .362 .279 7 14 2 6 0
206 TX Rio Grande OVC 40.25 .264 .268 3 13 0 6 1
207 Rider MAAC 39.82 .334 .259 9 20 1 7 2
208 Stonehill NEC 39.79 .351 .258 7 23 2 7 1
209 Chicago St. NEC 38.63 .246 .234 4 41 1 9 0
210 Winthrop BigSou 38.50 .245 .231 2 22 0 8 1
211 VMI SoCon 37.88 .341 .219 8 20 1 6 2
212 Howard NEC 37.59 .284 .213 5 31 1 9 1
213 Central Conn. St. NEC 36.91 .282 .200 7 19 0 8 2
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Hofstra CAA 0 Binghamton America 1 0.585
2 UIW OVC 2 SMU ACC 1 0.603
3 Houston Christian OVC 1 Southern Ind. OVC 4 0.614
4 Elon CAA 0 Longwood BigSout 1 0.616
5 Col. of Charlesto CAA 1 Furman SoCon 0 0.618
6 North Carolina ACC 0 Col. of Charlesto CAA 2 0.625
7 USC Upstate BigSout 2 South Carolina SunBelt 1 0.629
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
More Details
I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
I make one adjustment...
...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.
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