Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings

Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 0.5 goals for hockey. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.



NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings (Last updated 03-Apr-2022 08:25 PM ET) Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Minnesota State 35 5 0 4.55 53.00 1 2 Michigan 29 10 0 4.23 52.59 2 3 Minnesota 28 12 0 3.66 52.28 3 4 Denver 32 10 1 3.60 52.48 4 5 Western Michigan 30 13 1 3.37 52.22 6 6 Notre Dame 26 12 0 3.10 51.84 5 7 Minnesota-Duluth 23 17 4 2.69 51.86 9 8 North Dakota 27 15 1 2.36 51.39 7 9 Ohio State 21 12 2 2.35 51.41 8 10 Saint Cloud St 19 20 4 2.09 51.68 12 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Quinnipiac 34 8 3 2.01 51.30 10 12 Michigan Tech 20 13 2 1.95 51.50 13 13 Massachusetts 23 13 2 1.75 51.19 11 14 Omaha 22 20 0 1.42 51.16 18 15 Mass.-Lowell 22 11 3 1.28 50.77 14 16 Northeastern 26 14 1 1.08 50.67 16 17 Boston U. 21 13 3 1.05 50.65 17 18 Providence 22 15 2 0.97 50.82 22 19 Connecticut 21 16 0 0.92 50.75 21 20 Penn State 16 19 1 0.92 50.67 19 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Northern Michigan 20 17 1 0.77 50.22 15 22 Bemidji State 19 20 0 0.68 50.43 20 23 Clarkson 22 11 7 0.48 50.29 24 24 Cornell 19 10 3 0.45 50.25 23 25 Arizona State 17 17 1 0.30 50.14 25 26 Lake Superior St 18 18 1 0.21 50.12 28 27 Michigan State 12 21 1 0.18 50.03 26 28 Harvard 20 14 2 0.11 50.15 29 29 Wisconsin 11 22 3 0.06 49.89 27 30 Merrimack 19 18 1 -0.29 49.90 31 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 31 Bowling Green 15 19 3 -0.45 49.57 30 32 Boston College 14 19 5 -0.45 49.87 33 33 Alaska-Fairbanks 14 18 2 -0.48 49.84 34 34 New Hampshire 15 18 1 -0.75 49.55 36 35 Colorado College 10 27 3 -0.75 49.76 40 36 Sacred Heart 17 17 4 -0.98 49.23 35 37 RPI 19 22 3 -1.08 49.46 43 38 Colgate 15 20 4 -1.16 49.33 42 39 Mercyhurst 16 17 4 -1.16 49.10 38 40 RIT 22 17 4 -1.22 48.73 32 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 41 Canisius 16 16 3 -1.25 49.10 39 42 Ferris State 11 22 1 -1.29 49.06 41 43 Miami (Ohio) 7 27 2 -1.38 49.35 46 44 Air Force 17 16 3 -1.41 48.69 37 45 Army 15 17 4 -1.48 49.02 45 46 Niagara 12 20 2 -1.70 48.69 44 47 Holy Cross 13 19 3 -1.92 48.72 48 48 Union 13 20 4 -2.00 48.70 50 49 Bentley 12 19 3 -2.04 48.59 49 50 Saint Lawrence 12 21 7 -2.04 48.54 47 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 51 Vermont 9 26 2 -2.07 48.99 55 52 Maine 7 23 4 -2.08 48.96 54 53 American Int'l 13 22 2 -2.13 48.61 51 54 Yale 11 21 1 -2.21 48.69 52 55 Long Island 5 21 3 -2.61 48.23 53 56 Brown 10 22 5 -2.85 48.10 57 57 Princeton 11 20 2 -2.88 47.95 56 58 Dartmouth 8 23 3 -3.09 48.15 58 59 St. Thomas 3 31 1 -3.39 47.76 59
Conference Standings (abbreviated) (Last updated 03-Apr-2022 08:25 PM ET) --- AtlH CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Sacred Heart 15 13 17 17 -0.98 ( 36) 49.23 2 4 0.08 ( 29) 2 Mercyhurst 13 11 16 17 -1.16 ( 39) 49.10 3 6 0.55 ( 20) 3 RIT 18 13 22 17 -1.22 ( 40) 48.73 4 4 -0.27 ( 39) 4 Canisius 13 13 16 16 -1.25 ( 41) 49.10 3 3 -0.35 ( 41) 5 Air Force 15 12 17 16 -1.41 ( 44) 48.69 2 4 1.01 ( 11) 6 Army 13 13 15 17 -1.48 ( 45) 49.02 2 4 -0.59 ( 47) 7 Niagara 11 13 12 20 -1.70 ( 46) 48.69 1 7 2.65 ( 1) 8 Holy Cross 11 12 13 19 -1.92 ( 47) 48.72 2 7 0.32 ( 27) 9 Bentley 10 14 12 19 -2.04 ( 49) 48.59 2 5 0.92 ( 15) 10 American Int'l 12 17 13 22 -2.13 ( 53) 48.61 1 5 1.48 ( 6) --- Big10 CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Michigan 18 9 29 10 4.23 ( 2) 52.59 11 1 1.66 ( 5) 2 Minnesota 20 7 28 12 3.66 ( 3) 52.28 8 5 0.98 ( 13) 3 Notre Dame 17 9 26 12 3.10 ( 6) 51.84 9 3 -0.26 ( 37) 4 Ohio State 13 10 21 12 2.35 ( 9) 51.41 8 2 -1.07 ( 55) 5 Penn State 6 18 16 19 0.92 ( 20) 50.67 10 1 -1.74 ( 59) 6 Michigan State 6 18 12 21 0.18 ( 27) 50.03 6 3 -0.03 ( 31) 7 Wisconsin 8 17 11 22 0.06 ( 29) 49.89 3 5 0.49 ( 22) --- CCHA CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota State 25 3 35 5 4.55 ( 1) 53.00 10 2 1.84 ( 4) 2 Michigan Tech 17 9 20 13 1.95 ( 12) 51.50 3 4 1.01 ( 12) 3 Northern Michigan 14 16 20 17 0.77 ( 21) 50.22 6 1 1.18 ( 9) 4 Bemidji State 17 14 19 20 0.68 ( 22) 50.43 2 6 1.86 ( 3) 5 Lake Superior St 14 15 18 18 0.21 ( 26) 50.12 4 3 0.40 ( 23) 6 Bowling Green 12 16 15 19 -0.45 ( 31) 49.57 3 3 -0.18 ( 34) 7 Ferris State 9 16 11 22 -1.29 ( 42) 49.06 2 6 0.23 ( 28) 8 St. Thomas 3 22 3 31 -3.39 ( 59) 47.76 0 9 1.04 ( 10) --- ECAC CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Quinnipiac 22 6 34 8 2.01 ( 11) 51.30 12 2 -0.08 ( 33) 2 Clarkson 16 6 22 11 0.48 ( 23) 50.29 6 5 0.03 ( 30) 3 Cornell 14 8 19 10 0.45 ( 24) 50.25 5 2 0.77 ( 16) 4 Harvard 17 10 20 14 0.11 ( 28) 50.15 3 4 0.49 ( 21) 5 RPI 14 15 19 22 -1.08 ( 37) 49.46 5 7 -0.93 ( 50) 6 Colgate 10 13 15 20 -1.16 ( 38) 49.33 5 7 0.32 ( 26) 7 Union 11 13 13 20 -2.00 ( 48) 48.70 2 7 -0.72 ( 48) 8 Saint Lawrence 9 14 12 21 -2.04 ( 50) 48.54 3 7 0.63 ( 19) 9 Yale 9 16 11 21 -2.21 ( 54) 48.69 2 5 -0.34 ( 40) 10 Brown 10 16 10 22 -2.85 ( 56) 48.10 0 6 -0.54 ( 44) 11 Princeton 10 15 11 20 -2.88 ( 57) 47.95 1 5 -1.03 ( 52) 12 Dartmouth 7 17 8 23 -3.09 ( 58) 48.15 1 6 -0.19 ( 35) --- HEast CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Massachusetts 18 8 23 13 1.75 ( 13) 51.19 5 5 0.97 ( 14) 2 Mass.-Lowell 16 9 22 11 1.28 ( 15) 50.77 6 2 -0.78 ( 49) 3 Northeastern 18 11 26 14 1.08 ( 16) 50.67 8 3 -0.57 ( 45) 4 Boston U. 16 9 21 13 1.05 ( 17) 50.65 5 4 -0.23 ( 36) 5 Providence 13 13 22 15 0.97 ( 18) 50.82 9 2 -0.58 ( 46) 6 Connecticut 16 11 21 16 0.92 ( 19) 50.75 5 5 -0.50 ( 43) 7 Merrimack 14 13 19 18 -0.29 ( 30) 49.90 5 5 -1.72 ( 58) 8 Boston College 9 15 14 19 -0.45 ( 32) 49.87 5 4 -0.26 ( 38) 9 New Hampshire 8 15 15 18 -0.75 ( 34) 49.55 7 3 -1.10 ( 56) 10 Vermont 7 18 9 26 -2.07 ( 51) 48.99 2 8 -1.07 ( 53) 11 Maine 5 18 7 23 -2.08 ( 52) 48.96 2 5 -0.35 ( 42) --- NCHC CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 24 8 32 10 3.60 ( 4) 52.48 8 2 -0.07 ( 32) 2 Western Michigan 21 10 30 13 3.37 ( 5) 52.22 9 3 0.72 ( 18) 3 Minnesota-Duluth 15 12 23 17 2.69 ( 7) 51.86 8 5 1.96 ( 2) 4 North Dakota 22 8 27 15 2.36 ( 8) 51.39 5 7 1.18 ( 8) 5 Saint Cloud St 11 17 19 20 2.09 ( 10) 51.68 8 3 1.19 ( 7) 6 Omaha 12 18 22 20 1.42 ( 14) 51.16 10 2 -1.25 ( 57) 7 Colorado College 7 22 10 27 -0.75 ( 35) 49.76 3 5 -0.97 ( 51) 8 Miami (Ohio) 4 21 7 27 -1.38 ( 43) 49.35 3 6 -1.07 ( 54) --- Indep CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Arizona State 2 3 17 17 0.30 ( 25) 50.14 15 14 0.76 ( 17) 2 Alaska-Fairbanks 5 2 14 18 -0.48 ( 33) 49.84 9 16 0.34 ( 25) 3 Long Island 2 4 5 21 -2.61 ( 55) 48.23 3 17 0.40 ( 24)

The average computer rating of all teams in the conference is shown here.

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Big10 2.07 2 NCHC 1.67 3 CCHA 0.38 4 HEast 0.13 5 Indep -0.93 6 ECAC -1.19 7 AtlH -1.53
Predicted margins and totals for games in the next 2-3 days.
(Last updated 03-Apr-2022 08:25 PM ET) PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------

Original text files, if you'd like them:

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. They had already moved up to D-I by the time I had arrived, but I attended every home game in the years I was there. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate.

Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.


 

 

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