Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings

Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 0.5 goals for hockey. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.



NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings (Last updated 29-Nov-2021 08:59 AM ET) Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Minnesota-Duluth 10 3 0 3.63 52.47 1 2 Michigan 12 4 0 3.37 52.49 2 3 Minnesota State 12 4 0 3.37 53.01 6 4 Western Michigan 10 4 0 3.21 52.41 3 5 Notre Dame 10 3 0 2.79 51.94 4 6 Saint Cloud St 9 5 0 2.34 52.14 13 7 Denver 8 4 0 2.33 51.91 10 8 North Dakota 10 5 0 2.23 51.27 5 9 Minnesota 9 7 0 2.20 51.71 11 10 Quinnipiac 10 1 3 2.14 51.42 8 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Michigan Tech 8 5 0 2.07 51.79 14 12 Ohio State 8 4 0 2.04 51.49 12 13 Bemidji State 8 6 0 2.01 51.15 7 14 Mass.-Lowell 8 2 2 1.86 51.09 9 15 Omaha 11 3 0 1.55 51.46 20 16 Cornell 9 1 0 1.45 51.02 15 17 Providence 11 6 0 1.39 51.26 21 18 Northeastern 11 4 1 1.13 50.60 16 19 Bowling Green 7 4 3 1.06 50.62 17 20 Clarkson 8 4 3 1.00 51.00 25 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Northern Michigan 8 6 1 0.98 50.66 22 22 Connecticut 8 6 0 0.96 50.86 23 23 Penn State 9 6 0 0.94 50.53 19 24 Massachusetts 7 5 1 0.75 50.68 27 25 Harvard 5 3 1 0.73 50.73 29 26 Michigan State 8 5 1 0.61 49.97 18 27 Arizona State 7 7 0 0.44 50.16 24 28 Canisius 7 5 1 0.40 50.16 26 29 Lake Superior St 8 9 1 0.34 50.16 30 30 Boston College 7 5 2 0.27 50.44 31 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 31 Colgate 8 8 0 -0.47 49.95 37 32 RPI 6 7 2 -0.51 49.72 35 33 RIT 9 5 2 -0.52 48.87 28 34 Wisconsin 4 11 1 -0.64 49.48 34 35 Bentley 8 7 0 -0.74 49.00 32 36 New Hampshire 7 7 1 -0.75 49.01 33 37 Boston U. 4 9 2 -0.78 49.58 39 38 American Int'l 4 7 1 -0.87 49.36 36 39 Merrimack 6 8 0 -1.03 49.55 43 40 Mercyhurst 4 7 4 -1.04 49.26 40 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 41 Miami (Ohio) 3 10 1 -1.35 49.18 44 42 Colorado College 2 7 2 -1.36 49.46 50 43 Alaska-Fairbanks 1 11 0 -1.38 49.64 51 44 Union 4 7 2 -1.45 48.85 42 45 Saint Lawrence 3 6 4 -1.50 48.50 38 46 Sacred Heart 5 5 3 -1.52 48.63 41 47 Ferris State 4 12 0 -1.52 48.96 46 48 Dartmouth 3 6 0 -1.68 48.72 45 49 Army 4 7 2 -2.07 48.30 49 50 Vermont 3 9 1 -2.08 48.94 54 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 51 Niagara 2 8 2 -2.22 48.03 47 52 Holy Cross 3 12 1 -2.30 48.49 53 53 Maine 1 10 2 -2.38 48.67 56 54 Long Island 1 8 3 -2.44 48.17 52 55 Air Force 4 8 1 -2.57 47.55 48 56 Princeton 3 6 1 -2.88 47.81 55 57 St. Thomas 1 15 0 -3.17 47.52 57 58 Brown 1 7 0 -4.06 47.21 58 59 Yale 1 6 0 -4.30 47.01 59
Conference Standings (abbreviated) (Last updated 29-Nov-2021 08:59 AM ET) --- AtlH CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Canisius 4 2 7 5 0.40 ( 28) 50.16 3 3 -0.17 ( 36) 2 RIT 5 3 9 5 -0.52 ( 33) 48.87 4 2 -0.36 ( 40) 3 Bentley 6 4 8 7 -0.74 ( 35) 49.00 2 3 1.24 ( 9) 4 American Int'l 3 3 4 7 -0.87 ( 38) 49.36 1 4 1.42 ( 6) 5 Mercyhurst 3 3 4 7 -1.04 ( 40) 49.26 1 4 1.28 ( 8) 6 Sacred Heart 3 2 5 5 -1.52 ( 46) 48.63 2 3 -1.07 ( 51) 7 Army 2 4 4 7 -2.07 ( 49) 48.30 2 3 -1.41 ( 56) 8 Niagara 2 2 2 8 -2.22 ( 51) 48.03 0 6 2.18 ( 1) 9 Holy Cross 2 5 3 12 -2.30 ( 52) 48.49 1 7 0.41 ( 22) 10 Air Force 2 4 4 8 -2.57 ( 55) 47.55 2 4 0.53 ( 19) --- Big10 CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Michigan 5 3 12 4 3.37 ( 2) 52.49 7 1 1.21 ( 11) 2 Notre Dame 4 2 10 3 2.79 ( 5) 51.94 6 1 -0.72 ( 47) 3 Minnesota 5 3 9 7 2.20 ( 9) 51.71 4 4 1.79 ( 4) 4 Ohio State 4 2 8 4 2.04 ( 12) 51.49 4 2 -0.27 ( 39) 5 Penn State 1 5 9 6 0.94 ( 23) 50.53 8 1 -1.40 ( 55) 6 Michigan State 3 3 8 5 0.61 ( 26) 49.97 5 2 -0.89 ( 48) 7 Wisconsin 2 6 4 11 -0.64 ( 34) 49.48 2 5 0.84 ( 13) --- CCHA CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota State 8 2 12 4 3.37 ( 3) 53.01 4 2 1.82 ( 3) 2 Michigan Tech 5 3 8 5 2.07 ( 11) 51.79 3 2 0.70 ( 15) 3 Bemidji State 6 2 8 6 2.01 ( 13) 51.15 2 4 2.10 ( 2) 4 Bowling Green 5 4 7 4 1.06 ( 19) 50.62 2 0 -0.93 ( 50) 5 Northern Michigan 6 5 8 6 0.98 ( 21) 50.66 2 1 0.41 ( 23) 6 Lake Superior St 4 6 8 9 0.34 ( 29) 50.16 4 3 0.49 ( 20) 7 Ferris State 2 6 4 12 -1.52 ( 47) 48.96 2 6 0.72 ( 14) 8 St. Thomas 1 9 1 15 -3.17 ( 57) 47.52 0 6 1.24 ( 10) --- ECAC CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Quinnipiac 3 0 10 1 2.14 ( 10) 51.42 7 1 0.06 ( 28) 2 Cornell 6 1 9 1 1.45 ( 16) 51.02 3 0 -1.18 ( 52) 3 Clarkson 3 2 8 4 1.00 ( 20) 51.00 5 2 -0.25 ( 38) 4 Harvard 4 1 5 3 0.73 ( 25) 50.73 1 2 -0.12 ( 35) 5 Colgate 3 3 8 8 -0.47 ( 31) 49.95 5 5 0.15 ( 25) 6 RPI 3 3 6 7 -0.51 ( 32) 49.72 3 4 -0.20 ( 37) 7 Union 2 3 4 7 -1.45 ( 44) 48.85 2 4 -0.65 ( 46) 8 Saint Lawrence 2 2 3 6 -1.50 ( 45) 48.50 1 4 0.55 ( 18) 9 Dartmouth 2 3 3 6 -1.68 ( 48) 48.72 1 3 0.25 ( 24) 10 Princeton 2 3 3 6 -2.88 ( 56) 47.81 1 3 -1.60 ( 58) 11 Brown 1 5 1 7 -4.06 ( 58) 47.21 0 2 -0.45 ( 43) 12 Yale 0 5 1 6 -4.30 ( 59) 47.01 1 1 -2.07 ( 59) --- HEast CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Mass.-Lowell 6 1 8 2 1.86 ( 14) 51.09 2 1 -0.07 ( 34) 2 Providence 6 3 11 6 1.39 ( 17) 51.26 5 3 -0.03 ( 32) 3 Northeastern 5 3 11 4 1.13 ( 18) 50.60 6 1 -0.37 ( 41) 4 Connecticut 5 4 8 6 0.96 ( 22) 50.86 3 2 0.08 ( 26) 5 Massachusetts 5 2 7 5 0.75 ( 24) 50.68 2 3 0.67 ( 16) 6 Boston College 5 3 7 5 0.27 ( 30) 50.44 2 2 0.01 ( 30) 7 New Hampshire 3 5 7 7 -0.75 ( 36) 49.01 4 2 -0.60 ( 45) 8 Boston U. 3 5 4 9 -0.78 ( 37) 49.58 1 4 0.08 ( 27) 9 Merrimack 3 6 6 8 -1.03 ( 39) 49.55 3 2 -1.24 ( 54) 10 Vermont 1 4 3 9 -2.08 ( 50) 48.94 2 5 -0.90 ( 49) 11 Maine 1 7 1 10 -2.38 ( 53) 48.67 0 3 0.02 ( 29) --- NCHC CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota-Duluth 3 2 10 3 3.63 ( 1) 52.47 7 1 1.30 ( 7) 2 Western Michigan 3 3 10 4 3.21 ( 4) 52.41 7 1 -0.03 ( 33) 3 Saint Cloud St 3 3 9 5 2.34 ( 6) 52.14 6 2 0.44 ( 21) 4 Denver 4 2 8 4 2.33 ( 7) 51.91 4 2 -0.43 ( 42) 5 North Dakota 5 1 10 5 2.23 ( 8) 51.27 5 4 1.02 ( 12) 6 Omaha 2 2 11 3 1.55 ( 15) 51.46 9 1 -1.45 ( 57) 7 Miami (Ohio) 1 5 3 10 -1.35 ( 41) 49.18 2 5 -0.57 ( 44) 8 Colorado College 0 3 2 7 -1.36 ( 42) 49.46 2 4 -1.20 ( 53) --- Indep CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Arizona State 0 0 7 7 0.44 ( 27) 50.16 7 7 0.56 ( 17) 2 Alaska-Fairbanks 0 0 1 11 -1.38 ( 43) 49.64 1 11 1.69 ( 5) 3 Long Island 0 0 1 8 -2.44 ( 54) 48.17 1 8 0.01 ( 31)

The average computer rating of all teams in the conference is shown here.

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Big10 1.61 2 NCHC 1.57 3 CCHA 0.64 4 HEast -0.06 5 ECAC -0.96 6 Indep -1.13 7 AtlH -1.34
Predicted margins and totals for games in the next 2-3 days.
(Last updated 29-Nov-2021 08:59 AM ET) PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 30-Nov-2021 Harvard Boston College 7.8 HOME by 0.17 02-Dec-2021 Sacred Heart Army 6.8 HOME by 0.12

Original text files, if you'd like them:

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. They had already moved up to D-I by the time I had arrived, but I attended every home game in the years I was there. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate.

Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.


 

 

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