Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings

Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 0.5 goals for hockey. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.

December 11: my upstream source, National Statistical, has not proven reliable this season so I've switched to another. Hopefully everything is fixed and all the missing games are now restored. Very sorry about that.

December 26: it's holiday tournament time, and for games where the opponent is not yet known, the computer is tagging them as "Non-Division I". That'll resolve itself once the first games are played.



NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings (Last updated 19-Apr-2024 05:22 PM ET) Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Boston College 34 6 1 4.85 53.18 1 2 Denver 33 9 3 4.08 52.74 2 3 Boston University 28 11 3 3.54 52.37 3 4 Michigan State 26 10 3 2.69 51.58 4 5 Quinnipiac 27 10 3 2.67 52.00 8 6 Minnesota 25 11 5 2.60 51.65 5 7 North Dakota 27 13 2 2.56 51.88 11 8 Michigan 25 15 3 2.53 51.86 12 9 Wisconsin 26 12 2 2.45 51.71 9 10 Maine 23 12 2 2.35 51.48 6 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Cornell 24 7 6 2.08 51.20 10 12 Nebraska-Omaha 24 13 4 2.02 51.05 7 13 Colorado College 23 13 3 1.97 51.29 13 14 New Hampshire 20 15 1 1.82 51.26 15 15 Providence 18 13 4 1.82 51.29 16 16 Massachusetts 20 14 3 1.67 50.99 14 17 Western Michigan 23 16 1 1.57 51.45 20 18 Northeastern 17 16 4 1.49 51.14 18 19 Arizona State 25 8 6 1.46 50.85 17 20 St. Cloud State 17 16 5 1.22 51.05 21 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 RIT 28 11 2 1.09 50.75 19 22 Notre Dame 15 19 2 1.07 51.02 22 23 Connecticut 15 19 2 0.48 50.35 25 24 Penn State 15 18 3 0.42 50.25 24 25 Alaska 18 14 3 0.31 50.36 27 26 Minnesota Duluth 12 20 5 0.30 50.35 28 27 Ohio State 14 20 4 0.25 50.15 26 28 Dartmouth 14 10 9 0.23 49.92 23 29 Merrimack 14 21 1 0.07 50.22 33 30 Vermont 14 19 3 0.06 50.15 31 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 31 American Internation 20 16 4 -0.10 49.89 29 32 Holy Cross 21 14 4 -0.12 49.95 32 33 Colgate 16 16 4 -0.29 49.82 37 34 Minnesota State 18 16 4 -0.30 49.89 39 35 Bemidji State 20 17 2 -0.37 49.62 34 36 Clarkson 19 16 1 -0.37 49.54 30 37 Michigan Tech 19 16 6 -0.45 49.55 35 38 Alaska Anchorage 16 17 2 -0.46 49.57 36 39 Niagara 20 18 3 -0.66 49.38 38 40 Union 16 18 3 -0.71 49.56 40 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 41 Air Force 18 19 1 -0.85 49.44 42 42 Bentley 16 17 2 -0.85 49.65 44 43 UMass Lowell 8 24 4 -0.96 49.65 50 44 Lake Superior 18 20 1 -1.02 49.43 45 45 LIU 17 20 1 -1.06 49.35 43 46 St. Lawrence 15 20 6 -1.12 49.01 41 47 Augustana 12 20 4 -1.36 49.09 49 48 Yale 11 18 2 -1.38 49.01 46 49 St. Thomas 15 20 2 -1.41 49.24 53 50 Northern Michigan 13 16 6 -1.45 48.96 48 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 51 Princeton 11 16 4 -1.49 48.88 47 52 Harvard 7 19 6 -1.61 48.96 52 53 Sacred Heart 15 20 3 -1.67 48.93 54 54 Miami 7 26 3 -1.71 49.21 57 55 Rensselaer 11 23 4 -1.73 48.63 51 56 Canisius 12 21 4 -1.98 48.79 56 57 Army West Point 11 23 2 -2.35 48.41 58 58 Mercyhurst 9 22 4 -2.44 48.69 64 59 Bowling Green 13 23 1 -2.45 48.38 61 60 Ferris State 11 24 2 -2.51 48.53 63 61 Robert Morris 12 25 3 -2.54 48.26 60 62 Brown 8 19 3 -2.58 48.25 62 63 Lindenwood 6 18 4 -2.61 48.07 59 64 Non-Division I 9 33 1 -2.81 47.50 55 65 Stonehill 2 35 0 -5.95 45.36 65

Each conference is sorted by overall computer ranking (not by conference standings).

Conference Standings (abbreviated) (Last updated 19-Apr-2024 05:22 PM ET) --- Atlantic Hockey CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 RIT 23 7 1 28 11 2 1.09 ( 21) 50.75 5 4 1 0.42 ( 24) 2 American International 16 12 4 20 16 4 -0.10 ( 31) 49.89 4 4 0 0.74 ( 12) 3 Holy Cross 16 12 3 21 14 4 -0.12 ( 32) 49.95 5 2 1 -0.23 ( 38) 4 Niagara 16 12 3 20 18 3 -0.66 ( 39) 49.38 4 6 0 0.26 ( 27) 5 Air Force 15 12 1 18 19 1 -0.85 ( 41) 49.44 3 7 0 0.80 ( 7) 6 Bentley 12 13 2 16 17 2 -0.85 ( 42) 49.65 4 4 0 -0.77 ( 56) 7 Sacred Heart 14 12 2 15 20 3 -1.67 ( 53) 48.93 1 8 1 -0.64 ( 53) 8 Canisius 11 14 4 12 21 4 -1.98 ( 56) 48.79 1 7 0 -0.37 ( 44) 9 Army West Point 8 17 2 11 23 2 -2.35 ( 57) 48.41 3 6 0 -0.16 ( 36) 10 Mercyhurst 7 16 4 9 22 4 -2.44 ( 58) 48.69 2 6 0 -0.71 ( 55) 11 Robert Morris 8 19 2 12 25 3 -2.54 ( 61) 48.26 4 6 1 -1.13 ( 60) --- Big Ten CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Michigan State 18 7 2 26 10 3 2.69 ( 4) 51.58 8 3 1 -0.18 ( 37) 2 Minnesota 15 8 4 25 11 5 2.60 ( 6) 51.65 10 3 1 0.30 ( 25) 3 Michigan 15 12 2 25 15 3 2.53 ( 8) 51.86 10 3 1 -0.42 ( 48) 4 Wisconsin 17 9 1 26 12 2 2.45 ( 9) 51.71 9 3 1 -0.33 ( 43) 5 Notre Dame 9 15 2 15 19 2 1.07 ( 22) 51.02 6 4 0 0.47 ( 23) 6 Penn State 7 16 3 15 18 3 0.42 ( 24) 50.25 8 2 0 -1.12 ( 59) 7 Ohio State 6 20 2 14 20 4 0.25 ( 27) 50.15 8 0 2 -1.39 ( 64) --- CCHA CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota State 14 11 2 18 16 4 -0.30 ( 34) 49.89 4 5 2 0.61 ( 16) 2 Bemidji State 18 8 2 20 17 2 -0.37 ( 35) 49.62 2 9 0 0.74 ( 11) 3 Michigan Tech 16 11 2 19 16 6 -0.45 ( 37) 49.55 3 5 4 0.79 ( 8) 4 Lake Superior 13 14 1 18 20 1 -1.02 ( 44) 49.43 5 6 0 -0.11 ( 34) 5 St. Thomas 13 13 1 15 20 2 -1.41 ( 49) 49.24 2 7 1 -0.02 ( 32) 6 Northern Michigan 11 12 4 13 16 6 -1.45 ( 50) 48.96 2 4 2 0.18 ( 28) 7 Bowling Green 11 14 1 13 23 1 -2.45 ( 59) 48.38 2 9 0 -1.08 ( 58) 8 Ferris State 6 19 1 11 24 2 -2.51 ( 60) 48.53 5 5 1 -0.46 ( 49) --- ECAC CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Quinnipiac 19 5 1 27 10 3 2.67 ( 5) 52.00 8 5 2 1.74 ( 2) 2 Cornell 16 6 4 24 7 6 2.08 ( 11) 51.20 8 1 2 1.00 ( 4) 3 Dartmouth 11 7 7 14 10 9 0.23 ( 28) 49.92 3 3 2 0.48 ( 22) 4 Colgate 13 9 2 16 16 4 -0.29 ( 33) 49.82 3 7 2 -0.25 ( 40) 5 Clarkson 12 10 1 19 16 1 -0.37 ( 36) 49.54 7 6 0 -0.41 ( 46) 6 Union 11 12 3 16 18 3 -0.71 ( 40) 49.56 5 6 0 -0.70 ( 54) 7 St. Lawrence 12 11 4 15 20 6 -1.12 ( 46) 49.01 3 9 2 -0.59 ( 51) 8 Yale 7 14 2 11 18 2 -1.38 ( 48) 49.01 4 4 0 0.65 ( 15) 9 Princeton 8 12 3 11 16 4 -1.49 ( 51) 48.88 3 4 1 -0.54 ( 50) 10 Harvard 7 12 6 7 19 6 -1.61 ( 52) 48.96 0 7 0 1.98 ( 1) 11 Rensselaer 7 16 3 11 23 4 -1.73 ( 55) 48.63 4 7 1 0.73 ( 13) 12 Brown 6 15 2 8 19 3 -2.58 ( 62) 48.25 2 4 1 -1.39 ( 63) --- Hockey East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston College 23 4 1 34 6 1 4.85 ( 1) 53.18 11 2 0 1.23 ( 3) 2 Boston University 21 6 2 28 11 3 3.54 ( 3) 52.37 7 5 1 0.92 ( 5) 3 Maine 15 10 1 23 12 2 2.35 ( 10) 51.48 8 2 1 0.28 ( 26) 4 New Hampshire 13 12 1 20 15 1 1.82 ( 14) 51.26 7 3 0 -0.10 ( 33) 5 Providence 11 10 4 18 13 4 1.82 ( 15) 51.29 7 3 0 0.09 ( 31) 6 Massachusetts 13 11 2 20 14 3 1.67 ( 16) 50.99 7 3 1 0.69 ( 14) 7 Northeastern 11 15 1 17 16 4 1.49 ( 18) 51.14 6 1 3 -0.64 ( 52) 8 Connecticut 10 15 1 15 19 2 0.48 ( 23) 50.35 5 4 1 -0.26 ( 41) 9 Merrimack 6 18 1 14 21 1 0.07 ( 29) 50.22 8 3 0 -1.23 ( 61) 10 Vermont 7 15 3 14 19 3 0.06 ( 30) 50.15 7 4 0 -0.96 ( 57) 11 UMass Lowell 4 18 3 8 24 4 -0.96 ( 43) 49.65 4 6 1 -0.42 ( 47) --- NCHC CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 19 7 2 33 9 3 4.08 ( 2) 52.74 14 2 1 0.78 ( 9) 2 North Dakota 17 9 1 27 13 2 2.56 ( 7) 51.88 10 4 1 0.57 ( 17) 3 Nebraska-Omaha 16 10 3 24 13 4 2.02 ( 12) 51.05 8 3 1 -0.24 ( 39) 4 Colorado College 15 10 2 23 13 3 1.97 ( 13) 51.29 8 3 1 -0.27 ( 42) 5 Western Michigan 12 15 0 23 16 1 1.57 ( 17) 51.45 11 1 1 -1.96 ( 65) 6 St. Cloud State 13 11 4 17 16 5 1.22 ( 20) 51.05 4 5 1 0.15 ( 29) 7 Minnesota Duluth 8 16 2 12 20 5 0.30 ( 26) 50.35 4 4 3 0.54 ( 19) 8 Miami 1 23 2 7 26 3 -1.71 ( 54) 49.21 6 3 1 -1.23 ( 62) --- Independent CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Arizona State 13 3 1 25 8 6 1.46 ( 19) 50.85 12 5 5 0.51 ( 20) 2 Alaska 15 6 2 18 14 3 0.31 ( 25) 50.36 3 8 1 0.75 ( 10) 3 Alaska Anchorage 9 9 1 16 17 2 -0.46 ( 38) 49.57 7 8 1 0.13 ( 30) 4 LIU 13 8 0 17 20 1 -1.06 ( 45) 49.35 4 12 1 0.48 ( 21) 5 Augustana 4 7 1 12 20 4 -1.36 ( 47) 49.09 8 13 3 -0.12 ( 35) 6 Lindenwood 5 6 1 6 18 4 -2.61 ( 63) 48.07 1 12 3 0.82 ( 6) 7 Non-Division I 5 6 0 9 33 1 -2.81 ( 64) 47.50 4 27 1 0.57 ( 18) 8 Stonehill 2 21 0 2 35 0 -5.95 ( 65) 45.36 0 14 0 -0.38 ( 45)

The average computer rating of all teams in the conference is shown here.

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Big Ten 1.72 2 Hockey East 1.56 3 NCHC 1.50 4 ECAC -0.53 5 Atlantic Hockey -1.13 6 CCHA -1.24 7 Independent -1.56
Predicted margins and totals for games in the next 2-3 days.

Many thanks to US College Hockey (uscho.com), who provides the schedule information that goes into these predictions.

During in-season tournaments, a "Non-Division I" flag may appear if an opponent is not yet known. Those will resolve as tournament games get played.

(Last updated 19-Apr-2024 05:22 PM ET) PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------

Original text files, if you'd like them:

Data Source

Up until 2023, I used scores provided by The National Statistical Concern. Recently, however, I've realized that they consistently miss one or two games each weekend, and have incorrect home/away information, and this year have multiple schedule problems. That was unacceptable to me. So..

Beginning December 2023 I manually save scores from US College Hockey and am thoroughly grateful for their contributions to hockey over the years. If you don't frequent their site, you should.

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. They had already been forced to play up to D-I by the time I had arrived, so I missed their D-II glory days, but I attended every home game in the years I was there. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate.

Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.


 

 

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