Talisman Red's College Hockey Computer Ratings

David Rothman/FACT Rankings

David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.

David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and all other information is ignored. If you want the original text file, here it is.

There are no preseason rankings available using David's formula -- ratings will not be published until about 6-7 games have been played by everyone this season.

                < DAVID ROTHMAN'S MENS HOCKEY RANKINGS >
    BASED ON  214 GAMES BETWEEN  65 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
               THROUGH GAMES OF THURSDAY 30 OCTOBER 2025
      FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
  RANK   TEAM               DIVISION  LOGIT  PCT.  RRE    PF   PA  W  L T
 
    1 Harvard                ECAC     66.40  .780  .881    4    2  1  0 0
    2 Minnesota-Duluth       NCHC     58.18  .725  .737   32   12  7  1 0
    3 Michigan               BigTen   58.16  .748  .736   46   12  7  1 0
    4 Wisconsin              BigTen   57.59  .728  .723   33   11  6  0 2
    5 Miami                  NCHC     56.97  .782  .709   29   16  6  0 0
    6 Northeastern           Hockey   55.93  .596  .684   18   13  4  2 0
    7 Union                  ECAC     55.29  .735  .668   20    8  4  0 1
    8 Minnesota State        CCHA     54.67  .588  .652   15   13  3  1 2
    9 Western Michigan       NCHC     54.66  .636  .652   28   14  5  2 0
   10 Penn State             BigTen   54.44  .718  .646   37   23  8  1 0
   11 Michigan State         BigTen   53.95  .713  .633   27   11  6  1 0
   12 Omaha                  NCHC     53.74  .562  .628   19   15  3  2 0
   13 Colorado College       NCHC     52.83  .684  .603   21   14  5  1 0
   14 Augustana              CCHA     52.56  .508  .596   18   14  3  3 1
   15 Massachusetts          Hockey   52.44  .618  .593   27   22  5  2 0
   16 Merrimack              Hockey   52.37  .598  .591   18   12  4  2 0
   17 Quinnipiac             ECAC     52.14  .572  .584   28   18  5  3 1
   18 Providence             Hockey   51.78  .588  .574   25   17  4  2 1
   19 Connecticut            Hockey   51.23  .507  .559   21   18  3  3 0
   20 Denver                 NCHC     51.12  .607  .556   27   10  4  2 1
   21 Bemidji State          CCHA     51.03  .505  .553   26   23  4  4 0
   22 Army                   Atlant   51.02  .549  .553   16   13  3  2 1
   23 Michigan Tech          CCHA     50.98  .591  .552   21   18  4  2 0
   24 Boston University      Hockey   50.90  .539  .550   27   23  4  3 1
   25 Maine                  Hockey   50.89  .546  .550   22   17  3  2 2
   26 St. Cloud State        NCHC     50.87  .616  .549   27   15  5  2 1
   27 North Dakota           NCHC     50.16  .630  .529   27   16  5  2 0
   28 New Hampshire          Hockey   49.86  .443  .521   10   16  2  3 1
   29 Niagara                Atlant   49.54  .594  .512   18   14  4  2 0
   30 Lindenwood             Indepe   49.27  .421  .504   26   35  3  5 0
   31 Mass.-Lowell           Hockey   49.25  .498  .504   14   15  3  3 0
   32 Ohio State             BigTen   49.23  .551  .503   20   13  4  3 0
   33 Alaska                 Indepe   48.86  .448  .492   27   28  4  6 0
   34 Bentley                Atlant   48.52  .439  .483   13   17  2  3 0
   35 Dartmouth              ECAC     48.51  .837  .482    6    0  1  0 0
   36 Yale                   ECAC     48.51  .837  .482    6    0  1  0 0
   37 Arizona State          NCHC     48.47  .404  .481   19   24  2  4 0
   38 Colgate                ECAC     48.30  .448  .477   16   20  2  3 1
   39 Canisius               Atlant   48.28  .521  .476   22   26  5  4 0
   40 Minnesota              BigTen   47.89  .374  .465   22   31  2  6 1
   41 Boston College         Hockey   47.85  .453  .464   17   19  2  3 1
   42 Notre Dame             BigTen   47.60  .588  .457   29   21  4  2 1
   43 RIT                    Atlant   47.58  .610  .456   25   14  4  2 0
   44 Clarkson               ECAC     47.55  .404  .455   16   21  2  4 0
   45 Brown                  ECAC     47.40  .000  .451    0    0  0  0 0
   46 Holy Cross             Atlant   47.32  .426  .449   23   29  3  5 0
   47 Long Island            Indepe   47.28  .439  .448   24   23  3  5 0
   48 Ferris State           CCHA     47.06  .428  .442   23   28  3  5 0
   49 Sacred Heart           Atlant   46.43  .502  .424   18   17  4  4 0
   50 Robert Morris          Atlant   46.32  .444  .421   19   25  2  3 1
   51 Cornell                ECAC     46.15  .794  .417   12    6  2  0 0
   52 St. Thomas             CCHA     45.87  .419  .409   27   31  2  4 1
   53 Princeton              ECAC     45.45  .780  .398    2    0  1  0 0
   54 Vermont                Hockey   45.40  .544  .396   11   13  3  2 0
   55 Bowling Green          CCHA     44.31  .498  .367   16   17  3  3 0
   56 Air Force              Atlant   42.96  .324  .332   17   33  1  5 1
   57 Lake Superior          CCHA     42.71  .505  .326   31   28  4  4 0
   58 Rensselaer             ECAC     41.87  .205  .305    8   29  0  7 0
   59 Stonehill              Indepe   41.37  .294  .293   14   27  1  6 0
   60 Alaska-Anchorage       Indepe   41.26  .326  .290   17   24  1  4 0
   61 Northern Michigan      CCHA     40.99  .209  .284   12   34  0  8 0
   62 St. Lawrence           ECAC     40.98  .370  .284   15   26  2  5 0
   63 American International Indepe   40.55  .000  .274    0    0  0  0 0
   64 Mercyhurst             Atlant   40.41  .187  .270    9   40  0  7 0
   65 Non-Division I         Indepe   34.98  .186  .164   30  149  0 27 0
 
                 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
 
   1 Ferris State      CCHA      3 Western Michigan  NCHC      2 0.610
   2 Clarkson          ECAC      6 Penn State        BigTen    4 0.616
   3 Augustana         CCHA      4 Minnesota-Duluth  NCHC      0 0.623
   4 Long Island       Indepen   5 Merrimack         HockeyE   2 0.661
   5 Vermont           HockeyE   2 St. Lawrence      ECAC      5 0.685
 
 
     FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
                     DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
               FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
                          talismanred.com/ratings

 

 

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