Talisman Red's Womens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far. Or, the rankings within each conference are here.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is not included.
Warning: since David's method starts every team from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful.
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S WOMENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 3202 GAMES BETWEEN 350 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21 2025
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L T
1 Stanford ACC 65.76 .746 .864 84 22 18 1 2
2 Notre Dame ACC 64.07 .693 .839 60 19 15 2 3
3 TCU BIG12 63.69 .701 .834 51 19 17 2 2
4 Colorado BIG12 63.00 .676 .823 58 20 17 3 3
5 Virginia ACC 62.87 .652 .820 44 14 14 3 4
6 Florida St. ACC 62.52 .668 .815 48 13 12 2 4
7 Duke ACC 62.21 .659 .809 50 21 15 4 1
8 Vanderbilt SEC 62.10 .683 .808 47 12 17 3 2
9 Michigan St. BIG10 61.96 .638 .805 53 23 14 3 6
10 Texas Tech BIG12 61.56 .659 .798 39 16 14 2 5
11 Kansas BIG12 61.50 .630 .797 51 27 16 5 3
12 Baylor BIG12 61.32 .628 .794 38 17 14 4 4
13 Washington BIG10 61.20 .655 .792 34 13 15 2 6
14 UCLA BIG10 60.70 .595 .782 26 10 12 5 4
15 West Virginia BIG12 60.61 .647 .781 42 19 14 3 4
16 Tennessee SEC 60.33 .622 .775 34 12 12 4 3
17 LSU SEC 60.32 .621 .775 52 25 15 5 4
18 BYU BIG12 60.08 .564 .770 43 28 11 6 6
19 Memphis AMER 59.95 .711 .768 46 14 16 1 3
20 Georgetown BIGEAS 59.82 .673 .765 49 12 16 3 3
21 Wisconsin BIG10 59.67 .600 .762 33 20 14 6 2
22 Louisville ACC 59.59 .620 .761 53 16 13 5 3
23 Ohio St. BIG10 59.38 .575 .757 23 11 9 4 6
24 Arkansas SEC 59.38 .574 .757 34 24 10 5 4
25 Xavier BIGEAS 59.34 .668 .756 71 22 16 4 2
26 Iowa BIG10 59.32 .593 .755 37 23 12 5 4
27 North Carolina ACC 59.19 .608 .753 50 22 13 6 1
28 UCF BIG12 59.09 .605 .751 30 16 12 4 5
29 Wake Forest ACC 58.53 .583 .739 32 21 11 5 4
30 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 58.30 .652 .734 27 11 12 2 4
31 Northwestern BIG10 58.24 .566 .733 26 17 9 4 8
32 Georgia SEC 58.18 .573 .732 38 18 10 5 6
33 Penn St. BIG10 57.98 .533 .727 38 25 10 8 3
34 Clemson ACC 57.85 .524 .725 26 29 8 6 5
35 Mississippi St. SEC 57.81 .570 .724 35 25 12 7 1
36 Illinois BIG10 57.70 .590 .721 30 21 13 6 2
37 California ACC 57.66 .568 .720 26 24 8 3 8
38 South Carolina SEC 57.47 .574 .716 31 15 10 5 5
39 Kentucky SEC 57.22 .613 .711 43 17 12 4 5
40 Arizona St. BIG12 57.16 .575 .709 30 18 10 5 4
41 Alabama SEC 57.07 .527 .707 45 39 11 9 2
42 Seattle U WCC 56.67 .609 .698 48 26 10 3 6
43 Portland WCC 56.62 .597 .697 18 12 10 3 6
44 Utah Valley WAC 56.58 .622 .696 68 29 13 5 3
45 Oklahoma SEC 56.54 .579 .695 38 21 10 5 4
46 Pepperdine WCC 56.47 .562 .694 42 25 11 7 2
47 Southern California BIG10 56.26 .502 .689 25 23 7 7 3
48 Cal St. Fullerton BIGWES 56.16 .651 .686 26 8 14 3 3
49 Dayton A10 56.11 .642 .685 37 12 15 4 3
50 Houston BIG12 55.97 .543 .682 30 14 6 4 7
51 Kansas St. BIG12 55.77 .516 .677 23 20 7 6 5
52 Nebraska BIG10 55.69 .547 .675 25 18 8 5 5
53 Utah BIG12 55.64 .453 .674 14 20 6 9 3
54 Saint Louis A10 55.62 .643 .674 42 18 14 4 2
55 Utah St. MTNW 55.58 .556 .673 40 21 10 6 7
56 Liberty CUSA 55.39 .624 .668 42 18 13 4 4
57 Santa Clara WCC 55.24 .528 .665 26 24 8 6 5
58 UConn BIGEAS 55.04 .602 .660 21 16 11 4 3
59 Auburn SEC 54.96 .473 .658 23 20 4 6 7
60 Western Mich. MAC 54.84 .636 .655 42 18 15 5 1
61 Cal Poly BIGWES 54.82 .585 .655 32 24 10 3 9
62 Florida SEC 54.56 .485 .648 26 27 6 7 5
63 James Madison SUNBLT 54.51 .576 .647 36 23 9 4 6
64 Old Dominion SUNBLT 54.43 .628 .645 37 17 11 3 4
65 South Dakota St. SUMMIT 54.35 .614 .643 34 15 11 3 6
66 Montana BIGSKY 54.18 .589 .639 26 13 10 4 5
67 San Diego St. MTNW 54.16 .566 .638 29 24 9 4 7
68 Texas A&M SEC 54.14 .468 .638 17 20 5 7 5
69 Arizona BIG12 54.13 .443 .638 22 28 7 11 1
70 Michigan BIG10 54.02 .469 .635 23 27 6 8 4
71 Denver SUMMIT 54.00 .561 .635 23 17 9 5 4
72 Boise St. MTNW 54.00 .590 .634 29 20 10 3 8
73 Texas St. SUNBLT 53.95 .568 .633 33 25 9 4 7
74 Indiana BIG10 53.67 .485 .626 21 21 5 6 6
75 Weber St. BIGSKY 53.66 .583 .626 35 24 12 6 2
76 UC Santa Barbara BIGWES 53.59 .597 .624 30 15 13 5 5
77 Pittsburgh ACC 53.57 .432 .624 17 32 6 10 2
78 SMU ACC 53.53 .498 .623 25 28 8 8 2
79 Minnesota BIG10 53.49 .470 .622 23 24 6 8 3
80 South Alabama SUNBLT 53.49 .599 .622 31 12 10 4 4
81 Gonzaga WCC 53.41 .475 .620 29 26 7 9 2
82 Rutgers BIG10 53.39 .451 .619 17 19 4 7 5
83 Charlotte AMER 53.30 .561 .617 29 22 10 6 2
84 Colorado St. MTNW 53.28 .589 .616 30 17 10 4 5
85 Miami (FL) ACC 53.26 .485 .616 20 21 7 8 3
86 Washington St. WCC 53.25 .503 .616 20 16 7 7 5
87 UTSA AMER 53.14 .539 .613 24 20 9 6 6
88 UC Irvine BIGWES 53.10 .547 .612 24 11 8 5 7
89 Samford SOCON 53.03 .636 .610 45 21 13 3 5
90 Virginia Tech ACC 52.85 .413 .605 31 35 4 10 4
91 Cincinnati BIG12 52.80 .456 .604 16 22 5 8 6
92 NC State ACC 52.78 .436 .604 19 29 5 9 4
93 UNCW CAA 52.76 .622 .603 31 18 11 3 4
94 Rice AMER 52.75 .580 .603 33 26 10 4 6
95 Loyola Chicago A10 52.71 .568 .602 23 20 9 4 6
96 ULM SUNBLT 52.70 .635 .601 38 25 13 3 4
97 Lipscomb ASUN 52.68 .613 .601 42 18 15 6 2
98 Iowa St. BIG12 52.67 .419 .601 20 28 4 9 4
99 Air Force MTNW 52.62 .531 .599 31 27 8 6 4
100 Rhode Island A10 52.55 .607 .598 33 17 13 5 3
101 Dartmouth IVY 52.50 .602 .596 25 9 10 4 3
102 Brown IVY 52.47 .560 .596 27 17 7 4 4
103 Creighton BIGEAS 52.34 .488 .592 29 28 7 8 4
104 Fairfield MAAC 52.22 .700 .589 49 12 15 2 2
105 Missouri SEC 52.17 .405 .588 15 22 4 10 3
106 Oral Roberts SUMMIT 51.99 .593 .583 29 18 11 5 2
107 Buffalo MAC 51.72 .605 .576 30 13 12 5 2
108 New Mexico MTNW 51.65 .552 .574 31 18 8 5 5
109 Oregon BIG10 51.63 .398 .574 15 21 3 10 5
110 Army West Point PATR 51.58 .603 .573 48 30 14 6 2
111 South Fla. AMER 51.54 .516 .572 33 28 9 8 3
112 Ole Miss SEC 51.51 .416 .571 13 30 4 8 3
113 Miami (OH) MAC 51.48 .616 .570 27 14 12 4 3
114 Duquesne A10 51.46 .611 .570 44 20 12 5 2
115 Boston College ACC 51.45 .462 .569 20 15 5 8 5
116 Princeton IVY 51.41 .520 .568 23 18 7 6 3
117 LMU (CA) WCC 51.41 .462 .568 15 25 5 7 5
118 UAB AMER 51.36 .521 .567 34 24 7 6 6
119 Milwaukee HORZ 51.35 .612 .566 54 30 13 5 3
120 Bowling Green MAC 51.32 .588 .566 26 13 10 3 9
121 CSUN BIGWES 51.27 .515 .565 20 16 8 7 5
122 Wyoming MTNW 51.26 .484 .564 15 17 5 6 6
123 Tulsa AMER 51.07 .532 .559 38 30 8 6 5
124 Oklahoma St. BIG12 51.04 .369 .559 20 36 4 13 2
125 CSU Bakersfield BIGWES 50.98 .492 .557 26 19 8 9 2
126 Purdue BIG10 50.96 .450 .556 26 22 6 10 3
127 Texas SEC 50.91 .368 .555 25 41 4 12 1
128 Boston U. PATR 50.90 .596 .555 42 20 11 5 3
129 San Diego WCC 50.85 .453 .553 28 34 4 7 7
130 Syracuse ACC 50.81 .441 .552 22 26 5 9 4
131 California Baptist WAC 50.78 .509 .551 30 33 10 9 4
132 Butler BIGEAS 50.76 .517 .551 23 20 5 4 8
133 Stony Brook CAA 50.67 .572 .549 37 29 11 6 2
134 UC San Diego BIGWES 50.65 .485 .548 14 16 5 6 8
135 Eastern Ky. ASUN 50.60 .583 .547 30 25 10 4 5
136 Elon CAA 50.51 .609 .544 36 16 11 3 7
137 Providence BIGEAS 50.50 .495 .544 21 26 6 6 4
138 Villanova BIGEAS 50.50 .497 .544 16 20 8 8 1
139 Colorado Col. MTNW 50.48 .485 .544 19 20 5 6 7
140 Marquette BIGEAS 50.34 .479 .540 26 34 6 7 4
141 Marshall SUNBLT 50.30 .536 .539 27 19 7 5 5
142 Delaware CUSA 50.26 .613 .538 26 15 9 2 6
143 Grand Canyon MTNW 50.24 .497 .537 21 25 8 8 2
144 Fresno St. MTNW 50.22 .520 .537 31 24 7 6 5
145 Maryland BIG10 50.20 .423 .536 21 30 6 11 1
146 East Carolina AMER 50.12 .470 .534 22 25 6 8 4
147 App State SUNBLT 50.07 .497 .533 18 21 7 7 3
148 San Francisco WCC 50.01 .375 .531 13 30 3 11 4
149 Kennesaw State CUSA 50.00 .000 .531 0 0 0 0 0
150 Miss. Valley St. SWAC 50.00 .000 .531 0 0 0 0 0
151 Pennsylvania IVY 50.00 .000 .531 0 0 0 0 0
152 Binghamton AMEAST 49.89 .627 .528 27 16 10 2 5
153 Idaho BIGSKY 49.84 .513 .527 21 21 6 5 9
154 FGCU ASUN 49.76 .592 .525 43 22 10 5 2
155 FIU CUSA 49.70 .499 .523 18 19 6 6 4
156 Harvard IVY 49.67 .502 .522 18 16 5 5 3
157 Louisiana SUNBLT 49.59 .525 .520 33 19 7 6 5
158 Utah Tech WAC 49.57 .504 .519 35 30 7 7 5
159 Western Caro. SOCON 49.56 .561 .519 37 22 10 6 4
160 Columbia IVY 49.54 .481 .519 16 18 6 7 2
161 Long Beach St. BIGWES 49.53 .441 .519 19 19 4 8 5
162 Hawaii BIGWES 49.48 .453 .517 18 27 4 7 8
163 Fordham A10 49.48 .543 .517 35 28 10 7 3
164 Chattanooga SOCON 49.46 .578 .516 37 22 10 5 4
165 Monmouth CAA 49.44 .561 .516 26 19 10 6 2
166 Middle Tenn. CUSA 49.39 .561 .515 28 18 10 6 3
167 Coastal Carolina SUNBLT 49.37 .464 .514 13 18 3 5 8
168 Ball St. MAC 49.33 .542 .513 25 19 10 7 3
169 Murray St. MVC 49.32 .583 .513 25 21 10 4 5
170 Kent St. MAC 49.28 .522 .512 23 27 8 6 6
171 Northern Ariz. BIGSKY 49.25 .486 .511 22 22 5 6 7
172 Sam Houston CUSA 49.23 .529 .510 20 20 8 6 3
173 Pacific WCC 49.17 .417 .509 14 37 4 9 6
174 Eastern Wash. BIGSKY 49.14 .500 .508 27 27 7 7 4
175 ETSU SOCON 49.12 .572 .507 25 17 9 4 6
176 Drake MVC 49.09 .549 .507 28 16 9 6 4
177 Kansas City SUMMIT 49.00 .497 .504 28 32 8 8 3
178 Georgia St. SUNBLT 48.99 .482 .504 23 27 7 8 2
179 Col. of Charleston CAA 48.99 .541 .504 30 17 8 6 3
180 Bellarmine ASUN 48.98 .541 .504 21 22 9 6 3
181 Furman SOCON 48.98 .582 .504 35 20 9 4 5
182 Hofstra CAA 48.75 .516 .498 23 21 6 5 7
183 Colgate PATR 48.74 .543 .497 29 24 9 6 4
184 South Dakota SUMMIT 48.68 .498 .496 20 22 6 6 6
185 Idaho St. BIGSKY 48.55 .465 .492 15 19 5 7 4
186 Oregon St. WCC 48.54 .351 .492 17 39 2 12 5
187 Missouri St. CUSA 48.49 .454 .491 22 30 6 9 4
188 La Salle A10 48.28 .484 .485 28 31 7 8 3
189 Western Ky. CUSA 48.28 .517 .485 12 13 6 5 3
190 William & Mary CAA 48.25 .502 .484 22 20 7 7 4
191 VCU A10 48.15 .452 .482 23 37 7 10 3
192 Northwestern St. STHLD 48.11 .604 .481 37 14 12 5 3
193 North Dakota SUMMIT 48.03 .511 .479 32 19 7 7 3
194 Cornell IVY 47.84 .445 .474 14 19 4 7 4
195 North Ala. ASUN 47.82 .544 .473 18 12 8 5 6
196 Illinois St. MVC 47.59 .527 .467 18 14 8 6 7
197 North Texas AMER 47.56 .447 .466 27 31 6 10 4
198 UIC MVC 47.56 .485 .466 18 22 7 8 6
199 SFA STHLD 47.49 .551 .464 28 20 8 4 %10
200 UNLV MTNW 47.39 .410 .461 21 35 4 10 5
201 Quinnipiac MAAC 47.36 .582 .461 28 18 8 3 6
202 Ohio MAC 47.17 .447 .456 20 20 5 9 5
203 Jacksonville ASUN 47.17 .557 .456 40 21 8 5 5
204 Omaha SUMMIT 47.16 .459 .455 30 32 6 9 4
205 Davidson A10 47.16 .497 .455 20 23 7 7 3
206 Northern Ky. HORZ 47.01 .599 .451 34 15 9 3 6
207 Tennessee Tech OVC 47.00 .501 .451 28 27 7 7 7
208 Portland St. BIGSKY 46.98 .398 .450 12 21 3 9 4
209 Abilene Christian WAC 46.97 .426 .450 18 34 6 11 3
210 Fla. Atlantic AMER 46.97 .382 .450 25 41 4 12 3
211 Ga. Southern SUNBLT 46.96 .370 .450 17 31 2 10 5
212 Mercer SOCON 46.94 .529 .450 30 27 9 7 3
213 North Florida ASUN 46.91 .490 .449 24 39 9 9 3
214 Eastern Mich. MAC 46.89 .470 .448 16 19 6 8 4
215 Navy PATR 46.84 .538 .447 31 18 8 6 4
216 Loyola Maryland PATR 46.83 .498 .447 15 18 5 5 8
217 Massachusetts MAC 46.83 .447 .447 15 25 5 8 4
218 Sacramento St. BIGSKY 46.77 .416 .445 16 34 6 11 1
219 Houston Christian STHLD 46.63 .534 .441 29 27 12 9 2
220 Northern Colo. BIGSKY 46.63 .400 .441 19 29 3 10 6
221 Maine AMEAST 46.54 .468 .439 22 27 6 8 4
222 NJIT AMEAST 46.50 .532 .438 23 20 7 5 5
223 Vermont AMEAST 46.48 .543 .437 25 20 8 5 6
224 Siena MAAC 46.47 .560 .437 28 15 9 5 6
225 UC Davis BIGWES 46.46 .372 .437 11 23 3 12 4
226 UMass Lowell AMEAST 46.43 .498 .436 19 21 5 5 6
227 Lindenwood OVC 46.39 .565 .435 22 19 10 5 5
228 Central Ark. ASUN 46.30 .459 .433 25 21 6 9 2
229 St. John's (NY) BIGEAS 46.29 .399 .433 10 25 3 9 5
230 DePaul BIGEAS 46.28 .378 .432 16 29 4 12 2
231 Towson CAA 46.26 .503 .432 28 25 5 5 6
232 Sacred Heart MAAC 46.25 .527 .431 30 24 11 9 2
233 Holy Cross PATR 46.18 .488 .430 18 17 6 7 6
234 Belmont MVC 46.17 .469 .429 18 20 4 6 7
235 Southern Ill. MVC 46.03 .560 .426 28 18 10 6 3
236 New Mexico St. CUSA 45.95 .343 .424 13 35 2 12 4
237 Arkansas St. SUNBLT 45.91 .452 .423 24 21 4 7 4
238 Tarleton St. WAC 45.87 .487 .422 26 26 6 7 6
239 Yale IVY 45.80 .342 .420 15 29 3 11 0
240 Indiana St. MVC 45.70 .515 .417 30 28 7 6 6
241 USC Upstate BIGSTH 45.70 .552 .417 31 32 10 6 3
242 Northeastern CAA 45.63 .430 .415 12 20 3 7 6
243 Wagner NEC 45.59 .601 .414 33 22 10 3 6
244 Little Rock OVC 45.55 .554 .413 33 22 7 4 6
245 Akron MAC 45.53 .436 .413 18 28 5 9 4
246 Campbell CAA 45.51 .447 .412 18 25 4 7 5
247 Bryant AMEAST 45.43 .486 .410 16 15 4 5 8
248 East Texas A&M STHLD 45.43 .472 .410 20 40 7 8 4
249 Evansville MVC 45.32 .499 .407 20 21 7 7 2
250 George Mason A10 45.28 .420 .406 17 24 4 9 4
251 Radford BIGSTH 45.26 .560 .406 24 18 8 5 1
252 UTEP CUSA 45.03 .396 .400 11 22 3 9 4
253 NIU MAC 44.99 .395 .399 9 28 4 10 3
254 Jacksonville St. CUSA 44.98 .469 .398 19 21 6 8 3
255 Richmond A10 44.94 .457 .397 15 17 4 7 7
256 Lamar University STHLD 44.87 .471 .396 24 27 6 8 5
257 Troy SUNBLT 44.83 .410 .395 16 29 4 9 3
258 Canisius MAAC 44.82 .498 .394 25 27 8 8 3
259 FDU NEC 44.79 .548 .394 33 26 8 5 5
260 Louisiana Tech CUSA 44.78 .365 .393 12 33 4 13 2
261 Lafayette PATR 44.78 .449 .393 18 33 5 8 6
262 Saint Joseph's A10 44.67 .433 .391 21 30 5 9 3
263 Longwood BIGSTH 44.66 .533 .390 28 20 9 7 3
264 Southern Utah WAC 44.61 .347 .389 14 48 3 12 3
265 Seton Hall BIGEAS 44.58 .393 .388 18 30 3 10 5
266 Manhattan MAAC 44.49 .516 .386 26 23 7 6 5
267 Toledo MAC 44.47 .438 .386 15 23 4 8 6
268 San Jose St. MTNW 44.47 .295 .385 16 46 1 14 3
269 Nevada MTNW 44.42 .304 .384 14 49 2 14 2
270 Bucknell PATR 44.38 .409 .383 20 29 3 9 6
271 George Washington A10 44.38 .430 .383 20 38 5 9 4
272 UNC Greensboro SOCON 44.35 .381 .382 22 40 4 12 3
273 New Hampshire AMEAST 44.32 .448 .382 21 26 3 6 7
274 Wright St. HORZ 44.31 .498 .381 27 30 7 7 5
275 UMBC AMEAST 44.03 .471 .374 18 19 6 8 4
276 Southern Ind. OVC 44.01 .525 .374 27 26 9 7 5
277 Youngstown St. HORZ 43.92 .467 .371 29 40 8 10 2
278 Drexel CAA 43.60 .431 .364 12 24 3 7 7
279 Grambling SWAC 43.38 .555 .358 49 35 11 7 4
280 Marist MAAC 43.38 .454 .358 18 23 5 8 5
281 Southeastern La. STHLD 43.31 .466 .356 21 28 6 8 4
282 Wofford SOCON 43.11 .459 .351 16 24 6 9 6
283 Green Bay HORZ 43.09 .483 .351 28 34 8 9 3
284 Central Conn. St. NEC 43.04 .499 .350 22 23 6 6 5
285 Eastern Ill. OVC 42.97 .497 .348 17 21 8 8 3
286 North Dakota St. SUMMIT 42.93 .313 .347 12 32 2 12 1
287 UT Martin OVC 42.84 .448 .345 16 15 3 7 9
288 St. Thomas (MN) SUMMIT 42.80 .377 .344 15 30 2 8 4
289 High Point BIGSTH 42.79 .433 .344 20 26 5 10 5
290 American AMER 42.72 .383 .342 14 30 3 10 4
291 Lehigh PATR 42.68 .361 .341 15 39 3 11 3
292 Valparaiso MVC 42.67 .450 .341 21 28 5 8 4
293 UIW STHLD 42.39 .434 .334 18 22 4 8 4
294 A&M-Corpus Christi STHLD 42.34 .417 .333 18 29 3 8 6
295 Austin Peay ASUN 42.29 .328 .332 6 30 0 11 7
296 Niagara MAAC 42.25 .459 .331 24 34 6 8 2
297 Oakland HORZ 42.23 .436 .330 19 38 4 8 8
298 Central Mich. MAC 42.19 .299 .329 9 33 1 14 3
299 Howard NEC 42.09 .519 .327 26 20 8 7 3
300 Cleveland St. HORZ 41.90 .465 .322 17 23 4 6 7
301 Fairmont St. MEC 41.84 .345 .321 0 4 0 1 1
302 Jackson St. SWAC 41.78 .528 .320 26 24 9 7 3
303 Queens (NC) ASUN 41.62 .381 .316 16 33 3 11 5
304 UNI MVC 41.42 .362 .311 15 27 2 9 3
305 Stonehill NEC 41.37 .453 .310 27 30 5 8 4
306 UC Riverside BIGWES 41.36 .246 .310 6 44 0 16 2
307 UTRGV STHLD 41.31 .397 .309 15 25 4 10 2
308 Southern Miss. SUNBLT 41.29 .283 .308 12 59 2 14 1
309 LIU NEC 41.12 .514 .304 19 21 6 5 5
310 Charleston So. BIGSTH 40.96 .448 .300 19 28 5 8 4
311 Saint Peter's MAAC 40.93 .444 .300 22 40 6 9 3
312 The Citadel SOCON 40.87 .428 .299 17 32 5 9 3
313 McNeese STHLD 40.84 .377 .298 18 50 4 12 4
314 Winthrop BIGSTH 40.80 .441 .297 13 22 3 6 6
315 Iona MAAC 40.67 .431 .294 17 38 6 10 3
316 Rider MAAC 40.66 .416 .294 13 31 3 8 7
317 Merrimack MAAC 40.59 .378 .292 29 42 4 12 2
318 Robert Morris HORZ 40.53 .417 .291 17 28 4 9 4
319 IU Indy HORZ 40.44 .395 .289 19 28 4 11 3
320 Temple AMER 40.28 .315 .285 15 37 3 15 0
321 Stetson ASUN 40.14 .361 .282 19 46 5 14 0
322 UNC Asheville BIGSTH 39.99 .413 .279 8 17 4 9 3
323 West Ga. ASUN 39.86 .355 .276 15 50 4 13 2
324 SIUE OVC 39.70 .368 .273 14 40 3 12 5
325 Nicholls STHLD 39.59 .398 .270 17 33 3 9 5
326 UAlbany AMEAST 39.57 .312 .270 11 41 2 13 2
327 St. Bonaventure A10 39.27 .314 .263 13 41 2 13 2
328 Alcorn SWAC 39.24 .459 .263 32 28 5 8 4
329 Alabama A&M SWAC 39.22 .500 .262 26 26 9 9 1
330 Morehead St. OVC 38.89 .337 .256 8 37 3 13 2
331 Texas Southern SWAC 38.81 .441 .254 17 35 5 8 4
332 Detroit Mercy HORZ 38.58 .298 .249 14 43 1 13 3
333 Chicago St. NEC 38.49 .417 .247 16 33 4 9 5
334 Gardner-Webb BIGSTH 38.30 .390 .243 16 31 4 11 3
335 Southeast Mo. St. OVC 38.13 .308 .240 15 42 2 15 2
336 Prairie View SWAC 37.49 .407 .227 16 39 5 10 2
337 Delaware St. NEC 37.49 .422 .227 14 31 5 9 2
338 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 37.10 .292 .220 8 36 1 11 2
339 Presbyterian BIGSTH 37.09 .374 .220 15 33 3 10 3
340 Mercyhurst NEC 37.02 .323 .219 15 45 2 13 3
341 VMI SOCON 36.84 .275 .215 12 63 2 17 1
342 Hampton CAA 35.86 .309 .197 14 38 2 12 1
343 Southern U. SWAC 35.64 .340 .194 11 32 3 12 1
344 Le Moyne NEC 35.35 .321 .189 7 22 1 13 4
345 Purdue Fort Wayne HORZ 35.19 .263 .186 6 42 1 15 1
346 Western Ill. OVC 33.14 .215 .154 6 65 0 17 1
347 Saint Francis NEC 33.09 .263 .153 10 45 0 14 3
348 South Carolina St. INDEP 30.74 .243 .122 7 48 1 13 0
349 Alabama St. SWAC 29.07 .240 .103 9 54 1 15 0
350 Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 26.21 .176 .076 2 64 0 12 0
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Miami (OH) MAC 0 Morehead St. OVC 1 0.442
2 Texas Tech BIG12 0 San Francisco WCC 2 0.456
3 Vanderbilt SEC 1 Texas SEC 2 0.487
4 Temple AMER 1 UAB AMER 0 0.490
5 Notre Dame ACC 0 Pittsburgh ACC 1 0.510
6 Western Mich. MAC 0 NIU MAC 1 0.532
7 Washington BIG10 1 Oregon BIG10 2 0.542
8 FIU CUSA 1 UCF BIG12 0 0.548
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
More Details
I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
I make one adjustment...
...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.
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