Talisman Red's Womens College Soccer Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector in college football. Here, I use his original system (and nearly original code) to provide an alternative rating. More details at the bottom of the page.
The original text file is available, and below the list of teams is a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far. Or, the rankings within each conference are here.
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is not included.
Warning: since David's method starts every team from scratch, it usually takes 6-7 games in a season for the results to "converge" to something useful.
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S WOMENS SOCCER RANKINGS >
BASED ON 3217 GAMES BETWEEN 350 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF WEDNESDAY JULY 08 2026
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
RANK TEAM DIVISION LOGIT PCT. RRE PF PA W L T
1 Stanford ACC 66.51 .732 .872 96 24 21 2 2
2 Florida St. ACC 64.80 .687 .849 57 15 16 2 4
3 Notre Dame ACC 64.58 .693 .845 60 19 15 2 3
4 TCU BIG12 63.36 .676 .827 54 22 18 3 3
5 Virginia ACC 63.27 .645 .825 45 15 14 3 5
6 Duke ACC 63.09 .651 .822 55 22 17 5 1
7 Colorado BIG12 62.41 .658 .811 59 22 17 4 3
8 Michigan St. BIG10 62.22 .626 .808 56 29 15 4 6
9 Vanderbilt SEC 62.14 .667 .806 49 14 18 4 2
10 Texas Tech BIG12 61.45 .659 .794 39 16 14 2 5
11 Kansas BIG12 61.11 .613 .788 51 29 16 6 3
12 Washington BIG10 61.02 .631 .786 35 17 15 3 7
13 UCLA BIG10 60.78 .595 .782 26 10 12 5 4
14 Baylor BIG12 60.69 .611 .780 39 19 14 5 4
15 West Virginia BIG12 60.57 .647 .778 42 19 14 3 4
16 Tennessee SEC 60.45 .622 .775 34 12 12 4 3
17 LSU SEC 60.08 .606 .768 52 26 15 6 4
18 Memphis AMER 60.03 .711 .767 46 14 16 1 3
19 Louisville ACC 59.95 .620 .766 53 16 13 5 3
20 Ohio St. BIG10 59.80 .567 .763 26 16 10 5 6
21 North Carolina ACC 59.76 .603 .762 51 23 13 6 2
22 BYU BIG12 59.72 .547 .761 43 34 11 7 6
23 Georgetown BIGEAS 59.70 .653 .761 50 15 16 4 3
24 Wisconsin BIG10 59.67 .600 .760 33 20 14 6 2
25 Arkansas SEC 59.49 .574 .757 34 24 10 5 4
26 Xavier BIGEAS 59.41 .668 .755 71 22 16 4 2
27 Iowa BIG10 59.38 .593 .754 37 23 12 5 4
28 UCF BIG12 59.04 .605 .748 30 16 12 4 5
29 Wake Forest ACC 58.90 .583 .745 32 21 11 5 4
30 Saint Mary's (CA) WCC 58.38 .652 .734 27 11 12 2 4
31 Northwestern BIG10 58.38 .566 .733 26 17 9 4 8
32 Georgia SEC 58.30 .573 .732 38 18 10 5 6
33 Clemson ACC 58.18 .524 .729 26 29 8 6 5
34 Penn St. BIG10 58.15 .533 .729 38 25 10 8 3
35 California ACC 57.97 .568 .725 26 24 8 3 8
36 Mississippi St. SEC 57.86 .570 .722 35 25 12 7 1
37 Illinois BIG10 57.84 .590 .722 30 21 13 6 2
38 South Carolina SEC 57.60 .574 .717 31 15 10 5 5
39 Kentucky SEC 57.35 .613 .711 43 17 12 4 5
40 Alabama SEC 57.25 .527 .709 45 39 11 9 2
41 Arizona St. BIG12 57.07 .575 .705 30 18 10 5 4
42 Seattle U WCC 56.70 .609 .696 48 26 10 3 6
43 Portland WCC 56.67 .597 .696 18 12 10 3 6
44 Oklahoma SEC 56.62 .579 .695 38 21 10 5 4
45 Utah Valley WAC 56.53 .622 .692 68 29 13 5 3
46 Pepperdine WCC 56.51 .562 .692 42 25 11 7 2
47 Southern California BIG10 56.36 .502 .689 25 23 7 7 3
48 Dayton A10 56.26 .642 .686 37 12 15 4 3
49 Cal St. Fullerton BIGWES 56.23 .651 .686 26 8 14 3 3
50 Houston BIG12 55.83 .543 .676 30 14 6 4 7
51 Nebraska BIG10 55.79 .547 .675 25 18 8 5 5
52 Saint Louis A10 55.74 .643 .674 42 18 14 4 2
53 Kansas St. BIG12 55.66 .516 .672 23 20 7 6 5
54 Utah St. MTNW 55.54 .556 .669 40 21 10 6 7
55 Liberty CUSA 55.53 .624 .669 42 18 13 4 4
56 Utah BIG12 55.50 .453 .668 14 20 6 9 3
57 Santa Clara WCC 55.35 .528 .665 26 24 8 6 5
58 UConn BIGEAS 55.13 .602 .660 21 16 11 4 3
59 Auburn SEC 55.01 .473 .656 23 20 4 6 7
60 Western Mich. MAC 54.97 .636 .656 42 18 15 5 1
61 Cal Poly BIGWES 54.88 .585 .654 32 24 10 3 9
62 Florida SEC 54.74 .485 .650 26 27 6 7 5
63 James Madison SUNBLT 54.65 .576 .648 36 23 9 4 6
64 Old Dominion SUNBLT 54.56 .628 .646 37 17 11 3 4
65 South Dakota St. SUMMIT 54.36 .614 .641 34 15 11 3 6
66 San Diego St. MTNW 54.20 .566 .637 29 24 9 4 7
67 Michigan BIG10 54.18 .469 .636 23 27 6 8 4
68 Montana BIGSKY 54.16 .589 .636 26 13 10 4 5
69 Texas A&M SEC 54.15 .468 .635 17 20 5 7 5
70 Arizona BIG12 54.08 .443 .634 22 28 7 11 1
71 Boise St. MTNW 54.02 .590 .632 29 20 10 3 8
72 Texas St. SUNBLT 53.97 .568 .631 33 25 9 4 7
73 Denver SUMMIT 53.96 .561 .631 23 17 9 5 4
74 Pittsburgh ACC 53.86 .432 .628 17 32 6 10 2
75 SMU ACC 53.82 .498 .627 25 28 8 8 2
76 Indiana BIG10 53.78 .485 .626 21 21 5 6 6
77 Weber St. BIGSKY 53.68 .583 .624 35 24 12 6 2
78 Miami (FL) ACC 53.68 .485 .624 20 21 7 8 3
79 UC Santa Barbara BIGWES 53.63 .597 .623 30 15 13 5 5
80 South Alabama SUNBLT 53.57 .599 .621 31 12 10 4 4
81 Minnesota BIG10 53.55 .470 .621 23 24 6 8 3
82 Rutgers BIG10 53.53 .451 .620 17 19 4 7 5
83 Charlotte AMER 53.46 .561 .618 29 22 10 6 2
84 Gonzaga WCC 53.42 .475 .617 29 26 7 9 2
85 Colorado St. MTNW 53.31 .589 .614 30 17 10 4 5
86 Washington St. WCC 53.31 .503 .614 20 16 7 7 5
87 Samford SOCON 53.27 .636 .613 45 21 13 3 5
88 UTSA AMER 53.21 .539 .612 24 20 9 6 6
89 Virginia Tech ACC 53.17 .413 .611 31 35 4 10 4
90 NC State ACC 53.14 .436 .610 19 29 5 9 4
91 UC Irvine BIGWES 53.13 .547 .610 24 11 8 5 7
92 UNCW CAA 52.93 .622 .605 31 18 11 3 4
93 Lipscomb ASUN 52.92 .613 .604 42 18 15 6 2
94 Rice AMER 52.87 .580 .603 33 26 10 4 6
95 Loyola Chicago A10 52.83 .568 .602 23 20 9 4 6
96 ULM SUNBLT 52.80 .635 .601 38 25 13 3 4
97 Cincinnati BIG12 52.79 .456 .601 16 22 5 8 6
98 Rhode Island A10 52.69 .607 .598 33 17 13 5 3
99 Dartmouth IVY 52.64 .602 .597 25 9 10 4 3
100 Brown IVY 52.62 .560 .597 27 17 7 4 4
101 Air Force MTNW 52.62 .531 .597 31 27 8 6 4
102 Iowa St. BIG12 52.55 .419 .595 20 28 4 9 4
103 Creighton BIGEAS 52.43 .488 .592 29 28 7 8 4
104 Fairfield MAAC 52.37 .700 .590 49 12 15 2 2
105 Missouri SEC 52.23 .405 .587 15 22 4 10 3
106 Oral Roberts SUMMIT 52.02 .593 .581 29 18 11 5 2
107 Buffalo MAC 51.85 .605 .577 30 13 12 5 2
108 Boston College ACC 51.73 .462 .574 20 15 5 8 5
109 Army West Point PATR 51.71 .603 .573 48 30 14 6 2
110 Oregon BIG10 51.71 .398 .573 15 21 3 10 5
111 New Mexico MTNW 51.68 .552 .572 31 18 8 5 5
112 South Fla. AMER 51.67 .516 .572 33 28 9 8 3
113 Miami (OH) MAC 51.61 .616 .570 27 14 12 4 3
114 Duquesne A10 51.59 .611 .570 44 20 12 5 2
115 Princeton IVY 51.59 .520 .570 23 18 7 6 3
116 Ole Miss SEC 51.59 .416 .570 13 30 4 8 3
117 Milwaukee HORZ 51.49 .612 .567 54 30 13 5 3
118 UAB AMER 51.47 .521 .567 34 24 7 6 6
119 LMU (CA) WCC 51.46 .462 .567 15 25 5 7 5
120 Bowling Green MAC 51.44 .588 .566 26 13 10 3 9
121 CSUN BIGWES 51.31 .515 .563 20 16 8 7 5
122 Wyoming MTNW 51.26 .484 .561 15 17 5 6 6
123 Syracuse ACC 51.19 .441 .559 22 26 5 9 4
124 Tulsa AMER 51.18 .532 .559 38 30 8 6 5
125 Purdue BIG10 51.05 .450 .556 26 22 6 10 3
126 Boston U. PATR 51.03 .596 .555 42 20 11 5 3
127 CSU Bakersfield BIGWES 51.02 .492 .555 26 19 8 9 2
128 Oklahoma St. BIG12 50.99 .369 .554 20 36 4 13 2
129 Texas SEC 50.93 .368 .553 25 41 4 12 1
130 San Diego WCC 50.89 .453 .552 28 34 4 7 7
131 Butler BIGEAS 50.85 .517 .551 23 20 5 4 8
132 Stony Brook CAA 50.83 .572 .550 37 29 11 6 2
133 California Baptist WAC 50.78 .509 .549 30 33 10 9 4
134 Eastern Ky. ASUN 50.75 .583 .548 30 25 10 4 5
135 Elon CAA 50.71 .609 .547 36 16 11 3 7
136 UC San Diego BIGWES 50.70 .485 .547 14 16 5 6 8
137 Villanova BIGEAS 50.62 .497 .544 16 20 8 8 1
138 Providence BIGEAS 50.61 .495 .544 21 26 6 6 4
139 Colorado Col. MTNW 50.51 .485 .541 19 20 5 6 7
140 Marquette BIGEAS 50.42 .479 .539 26 34 6 7 4
141 Marshall SUNBLT 50.41 .536 .539 27 19 7 5 5
142 Delaware CUSA 50.39 .613 .538 26 15 9 2 6
143 Maryland BIG10 50.35 .423 .537 21 30 6 11 1
144 East Carolina AMER 50.27 .470 .535 22 25 6 8 4
145 Grand Canyon MTNW 50.27 .497 .535 21 25 8 8 2
146 Fresno St. MTNW 50.25 .520 .535 31 24 7 6 5
147 App State SUNBLT 50.23 .497 .534 18 21 7 7 3
148 San Francisco WCC 50.09 .375 .530 13 30 3 11 4
149 Binghamton AMEAST 50.05 .627 .529 27 16 10 2 5
150 Kennesaw State CUSA 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
151 Miss. Valley St. SWAC 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
152 Pennsylvania IVY 50.00 .000 .528 0 0 0 0 0
153 FIU CUSA 49.93 .499 .526 18 19 6 6 4
154 FGCU ASUN 49.90 .592 .525 43 22 10 5 2
155 Idaho BIGSKY 49.87 .513 .525 21 21 6 5 9
156 Harvard IVY 49.80 .502 .523 18 16 5 5 3
157 Western Caro. SOCON 49.74 .561 .521 37 22 10 6 4
158 Louisiana SUNBLT 49.69 .525 .520 33 19 7 6 5
159 Columbia IVY 49.67 .481 .519 16 18 6 7 2
160 Chattanooga SOCON 49.61 .578 .518 37 22 10 5 4
161 Monmouth CAA 49.60 .561 .517 26 19 10 6 2
162 Fordham A10 49.59 .543 .517 35 28 10 7 3
163 Utah Tech WAC 49.57 .504 .517 35 30 7 7 5
164 Long Beach St. BIGWES 49.57 .441 .517 19 19 4 8 5
165 Hawaii BIGWES 49.53 .453 .516 18 27 4 7 8
166 Middle Tenn. CUSA 49.52 .561 .515 28 18 10 6 3
167 Coastal Carolina SUNBLT 49.51 .464 .515 13 18 3 5 8
168 Ball St. MAC 49.45 .542 .513 25 19 10 7 3
169 Murray St. MVC 49.43 .583 .513 25 21 10 4 5
170 Kent St. MAC 49.42 .522 .513 23 27 8 6 6
171 Sam Houston CUSA 49.34 .529 .510 20 20 8 6 3
172 ETSU SOCON 49.28 .572 .509 25 17 9 4 6
173 Northern Ariz. BIGSKY 49.27 .486 .509 22 22 5 6 7
174 Pacific WCC 49.22 .417 .507 14 37 4 9 6
175 Eastern Wash. BIGSKY 49.16 .500 .506 27 27 7 7 4
176 Furman SOCON 49.15 .582 .505 35 20 9 4 5
177 Col. of Charleston CAA 49.15 .541 .505 30 17 8 6 3
178 Drake MVC 49.14 .549 .505 28 16 9 6 4
179 Georgia St. SUNBLT 49.13 .482 .505 23 27 7 8 2
180 Bellarmine ASUN 49.13 .541 .505 21 22 9 6 3
181 Kansas City SUMMIT 49.05 .497 .503 28 32 8 8 3
182 Hofstra CAA 48.91 .516 .499 23 21 6 5 7
183 Colgate PATR 48.90 .543 .499 29 24 9 6 4
184 South Dakota SUMMIT 48.72 .498 .494 20 22 6 6 6
185 Missouri St. CUSA 48.59 .454 .490 22 30 6 9 4
186 Idaho St. BIGSKY 48.57 .465 .490 15 19 5 7 4
187 Oregon St. WCC 48.57 .351 .490 17 39 2 12 5
188 La Salle A10 48.43 .484 .486 28 31 7 8 3
189 William & Mary CAA 48.42 .502 .486 22 20 7 7 4
190 Western Ky. CUSA 48.40 .517 .485 12 13 6 5 3
191 VCU A10 48.33 .452 .483 23 37 7 10 3
192 Northwestern St. STHLD 48.19 .604 .480 37 14 12 5 3
193 North Dakota SUMMIT 48.07 .511 .477 32 19 7 7 3
194 Cornell IVY 48.01 .445 .475 14 19 4 7 4
195 North Ala. ASUN 47.97 .544 .474 18 12 8 5 6
196 Illinois St. MVC 47.70 .527 .467 18 14 8 6 7
197 North Texas AMER 47.68 .447 .466 27 31 6 10 4
198 UIC MVC 47.66 .485 .466 18 22 7 8 6
199 SFA STHLD 47.56 .551 .463 28 20 8 4 %10
200 Quinnipiac MAAC 47.52 .582 .462 28 18 8 3 6
201 UNLV MTNW 47.41 .410 .459 21 35 4 10 5
202 Jacksonville ASUN 47.35 .557 .457 40 21 8 5 5
203 Davidson A10 47.33 .497 .457 20 23 7 7 3
204 Ohio MAC 47.31 .447 .456 20 20 5 9 5
205 Omaha SUMMIT 47.22 .459 .454 30 32 6 9 4
206 Fla. Atlantic AMER 47.17 .382 .453 25 41 4 12 3
207 Northern Ky. HORZ 47.13 .599 .452 34 15 9 3 6
208 Tennessee Tech OVC 47.12 .501 .451 28 27 7 7 7
209 Ga. Southern SUNBLT 47.10 .370 .451 17 31 2 10 5
210 Mercer SOCON 47.10 .529 .451 30 27 9 7 3
211 North Florida ASUN 47.07 .490 .450 24 39 9 9 3
212 Eastern Mich. MAC 47.01 .470 .448 16 19 6 8 4
213 Navy PATR 46.99 .538 .448 31 18 8 6 4
214 Loyola Maryland PATR 46.99 .498 .448 15 18 5 5 8
215 Portland St. BIGSKY 46.98 .398 .448 12 21 3 9 4
216 Abilene Christian WAC 46.98 .426 .448 18 34 6 11 3
217 Massachusetts MAC 46.96 .447 .447 15 25 5 8 4
218 Sacramento St. BIGSKY 46.81 .416 .443 16 34 6 11 1
219 Houston Christian STHLD 46.71 .534 .440 29 27 12 9 2
220 Maine AMEAST 46.67 .468 .440 22 27 6 8 4
221 Northern Colo. BIGSKY 46.65 .400 .439 19 29 3 10 6
222 NJIT AMEAST 46.64 .532 .439 23 20 7 5 5
223 Siena MAAC 46.63 .560 .438 28 15 9 5 6
224 Vermont AMEAST 46.62 .543 .438 25 20 8 5 6
225 UMass Lowell AMEAST 46.55 .498 .436 19 21 5 5 6
226 UC Davis BIGWES 46.49 .372 .435 11 23 3 12 4
227 Lindenwood OVC 46.49 .565 .435 22 19 10 5 5
228 Central Ark. ASUN 46.43 .459 .433 25 21 6 9 2
229 Towson CAA 46.42 .503 .433 28 25 5 5 6
230 St. John's (NY) BIGEAS 46.41 .399 .433 10 25 3 9 5
231 Sacred Heart MAAC 46.39 .527 .432 30 24 11 9 2
232 DePaul BIGEAS 46.37 .378 .432 16 29 4 12 2
233 Holy Cross PATR 46.34 .488 .431 18 17 6 7 6
234 Belmont MVC 46.28 .469 .429 18 20 4 6 7
235 Southern Ill. MVC 46.14 .560 .426 28 18 10 6 3
236 Arkansas St. SUNBLT 46.00 .452 .422 24 21 4 7 4
237 New Mexico St. CUSA 46.00 .343 .422 13 35 2 12 4
238 Yale IVY 45.92 .342 .420 15 29 3 11 0
239 Tarleton St. WAC 45.91 .487 .420 26 26 6 7 6
240 USC Upstate BIGSTH 45.88 .552 .419 31 32 10 6 3
241 Indiana St. MVC 45.81 .515 .417 30 28 7 6 6
242 Northeastern CAA 45.78 .430 .416 12 20 3 7 6
243 Wagner NEC 45.72 .601 .415 33 22 10 3 6
244 Campbell CAA 45.70 .447 .414 18 25 4 7 5
245 Little Rock OVC 45.65 .554 .413 33 22 7 4 6
246 Akron MAC 45.65 .436 .413 18 28 5 9 4
247 Bryant AMEAST 45.57 .486 .411 16 15 4 5 8
248 East Texas A&M STHLD 45.50 .472 .409 20 40 7 8 4
249 Radford BIGSTH 45.43 .560 .407 24 18 8 5 1
250 George Mason A10 45.43 .420 .407 17 24 4 9 4
251 Evansville MVC 45.42 .499 .407 20 21 7 7 2
252 Jacksonville St. CUSA 45.11 .469 .399 19 21 6 8 3
253 NIU MAC 45.10 .395 .399 9 28 4 10 3
254 UTEP CUSA 45.10 .396 .399 11 22 3 9 4
255 Richmond A10 45.09 .457 .398 15 17 4 7 7
256 Canisius MAAC 44.97 .498 .395 25 27 8 8 3
257 Lamar University STHLD 44.95 .471 .395 24 27 6 8 5
258 Troy SUNBLT 44.95 .410 .395 16 29 4 9 3
259 FDU NEC 44.93 .548 .394 33 26 8 5 5
260 Lafayette PATR 44.92 .449 .394 18 33 5 8 6
261 Louisiana Tech CUSA 44.88 .365 .393 12 33 4 13 2
262 Longwood BIGSTH 44.83 .533 .392 28 20 9 7 3
263 Saint Joseph's A10 44.82 .433 .391 21 30 5 9 3
264 Seton Hall BIGEAS 44.69 .393 .388 18 30 3 10 5
265 Manhattan MAAC 44.63 .516 .387 26 23 7 6 5
266 Southern Utah WAC 44.61 .347 .386 14 48 3 12 3
267 Toledo MAC 44.59 .438 .386 15 23 4 8 6
268 Bucknell PATR 44.53 .409 .384 20 29 3 9 6
269 George Washington A10 44.52 .430 .384 20 38 5 9 4
270 UNC Greensboro SOCON 44.51 .381 .384 22 40 4 12 3
271 San Jose St. MTNW 44.51 .295 .384 16 46 1 14 3
272 New Hampshire AMEAST 44.46 .448 .382 21 26 3 6 7
273 Nevada MTNW 44.44 .304 .382 14 49 2 14 2
274 Wright St. HORZ 44.44 .498 .382 27 30 7 7 5
275 UMBC AMEAST 44.17 .471 .375 18 19 6 8 4
276 Southern Ind. OVC 44.12 .525 .374 27 26 9 7 5
277 Youngstown St. HORZ 44.04 .467 .372 29 40 8 10 2
278 Drexel CAA 43.75 .431 .365 12 24 3 7 7
279 Marist MAAC 43.53 .454 .359 18 23 5 8 5
280 Grambling SWAC 43.48 .555 .358 49 35 11 7 4
281 Southeastern La. STHLD 43.39 .466 .356 21 28 6 8 4
282 Wofford SOCON 43.28 .459 .353 16 24 6 9 6
283 Green Bay HORZ 43.20 .483 .351 28 34 8 9 3
284 Central Conn. St. NEC 43.18 .499 .350 22 23 6 6 5
285 Eastern Ill. OVC 43.08 .497 .348 17 21 8 8 3
286 North Dakota St. SUMMIT 42.98 .313 .346 12 32 2 12 1
287 High Point BIGSTH 42.98 .433 .345 20 26 5 10 5
288 UT Martin OVC 42.95 .448 .345 16 15 3 7 9
289 American AMER 42.87 .383 .343 14 30 3 10 4
290 St. Thomas (MN) SUMMIT 42.86 .377 .343 15 30 2 8 4
291 Lehigh PATR 42.83 .361 .342 15 39 3 11 3
292 Valparaiso MVC 42.78 .450 .341 21 28 5 8 4
293 UIW STHLD 42.47 .434 .333 18 22 4 8 4
294 Austin Peay ASUN 42.43 .328 .332 6 30 0 11 7
295 A&M-Corpus Christi STHLD 42.42 .417 .332 18 29 3 8 6
296 Niagara MAAC 42.41 .459 .332 24 34 6 8 2
297 Oakland HORZ 42.36 .436 .331 19 38 4 8 8
298 Central Mich. MAC 42.30 .299 .329 9 33 1 14 3
299 Howard NEC 42.23 .519 .328 26 20 8 7 3
300 Cleveland St. HORZ 42.03 .465 .323 17 23 4 6 7
301 Fairmont St. MEC 41.97 .345 .321 0 4 0 1 1
302 Jackson St. SWAC 41.88 .528 .319 26 24 9 7 3
303 Queens (NC) ASUN 41.79 .381 .317 16 33 3 11 5
304 Stonehill NEC 41.51 .453 .311 27 30 5 8 4
305 UNI MVC 41.51 .362 .311 15 27 2 9 3
306 UC Riverside BIGWES 41.40 .246 .308 6 44 0 16 2
307 Southern Miss. SUNBLT 41.39 .283 .308 12 59 2 14 1
308 UTRGV STHLD 41.38 .397 .308 15 25 4 10 2
309 LIU NEC 41.27 .514 .305 19 21 6 5 5
310 Charleston So. BIGSTH 41.13 .448 .302 19 28 5 8 4
311 Saint Peter's MAAC 41.08 .444 .301 22 40 6 9 3
312 The Citadel SOCON 41.05 .428 .300 17 32 5 9 3
313 Winthrop BIGSTH 40.97 .441 .298 13 22 3 6 6
314 McNeese STHLD 40.92 .377 .297 18 50 4 12 4
315 Iona MAAC 40.81 .431 .295 17 38 6 10 3
316 Rider MAAC 40.80 .416 .294 13 31 3 8 7
317 Merrimack MAAC 40.74 .378 .293 29 42 4 12 2
318 Robert Morris HORZ 40.66 .417 .291 17 28 4 9 4
319 IU Indy HORZ 40.56 .395 .289 19 28 4 11 3
320 Temple AMER 40.42 .315 .286 15 37 3 15 0
321 Stetson ASUN 40.33 .361 .284 19 46 5 14 0
322 UNC Asheville BIGSTH 40.17 .413 .280 8 17 4 9 3
323 West Ga. ASUN 40.02 .355 .277 15 50 4 13 2
324 SIUE OVC 39.81 .368 .272 14 40 3 12 5
325 UAlbany AMEAST 39.72 .312 .271 11 41 2 13 2
326 Nicholls STHLD 39.67 .398 .270 17 33 3 9 5
327 St. Bonaventure A10 39.41 .314 .264 13 41 2 13 2
328 Alcorn SWAC 39.34 .459 .263 32 28 5 8 4
329 Alabama A&M SWAC 39.34 .500 .263 26 26 9 9 1
330 Morehead St. OVC 39.02 .337 .256 8 37 3 13 2
331 Texas Southern SWAC 38.89 .441 .253 17 35 5 8 4
332 Detroit Mercy HORZ 38.71 .298 .249 14 43 1 13 3
333 Chicago St. NEC 38.62 .417 .248 16 33 4 9 5
334 Gardner-Webb BIGSTH 38.48 .390 .245 16 31 4 11 3
335 Southeast Mo. St. OVC 38.24 .308 .240 15 42 2 15 2
336 Delaware St. NEC 37.63 .422 .228 14 31 5 9 2
337 Prairie View SWAC 37.58 .407 .227 16 39 5 10 2
338 Presbyterian BIGSTH 37.26 .374 .221 15 33 3 10 3
339 Mount St. Mary's MAAC 37.25 .292 .221 8 36 1 11 2
340 Mercyhurst NEC 37.16 .323 .219 15 45 2 13 3
341 VMI SOCON 37.02 .275 .216 12 63 2 17 1
342 Hampton CAA 36.01 .309 .198 14 38 2 12 1
343 Southern U. SWAC 35.73 .340 .193 11 32 3 12 1
344 Le Moyne NEC 35.50 .321 .189 7 22 1 13 4
345 Purdue Fort Wayne HORZ 35.31 .263 .186 6 42 1 15 1
346 Western Ill. OVC 33.24 .215 .154 6 65 0 17 1
347 Saint Francis NEC 33.23 .263 .153 10 45 0 14 3
348 South Carolina St. INDEP 30.89 .243 .122 7 48 1 13 0
349 Alabama St. SWAC 29.19 .240 .103 9 54 1 15 0
350 Ark.-Pine Bluff SWAC 26.32 .176 .076 2 64 0 12 0
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT
1 Miami (OH) MAC 0 Morehead St. OVC 1 0.442
2 Texas Tech BIG12 0 San Francisco WCC 2 0.463
3 Vanderbilt SEC 1 Texas SEC 2 0.486
4 Temple AMER 1 UAB AMER 0 0.491
5 Notre Dame ACC 0 Pittsburgh ACC 1 0.502
6 Western Mich. MAC 0 NIU MAC 1 0.531
7 Washington BIG10 1 Oregon BIG10 2 0.551
8 FIU CUSA 1 UCF BIG12 0 0.557
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT standings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
More Details
I've preserved David's original source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
I make one adjustment...
...to David's code when using it for soccer. Because his original formula was designed for sports like football and basketball -- where a 3- or 4-point game would actually mean the game was close -- I have adjusted the margin of victory factor he uses. Before adjustment, a team who wins by 6 earns about 0.83 of a win. But with a soccer adjustment, that number is 1.00. A two-goal win, instead of counting for only 0.78, now counts about 0.90.
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