Talisman Red's College Football Computer Ratings
David Rothman/FACT Rankings
David Rothman (1935-2004) was a pioneer in the sports ratings world, with his rating system being recognized by the NCAA from 1968-2006 as a national championship selector and used as a BCS component from 1999-2002. Here, I produce the ratings and rankings using his system, and I've also preserved his source code from 1990(!) if you'd like to get it and try it yourself.
Files available:
- the original text file
- rankings of all FBS teams, and within their conferences
- rankings of all FBS teams, and within their conferences
- a list of the biggest upsets of the season so far
David's method considers only scores. Game locations, dates, and any other information is ignored.
Note 1: Dr. Peter Wolfe has continued to produce David's rankings on his website for many years, and my calculations will differ just slightly -- I have only D1 teams listed here for now, and he includes other divisions.
Note 2: All teams start from scratch - there is no preseason "prior" applied to any team. So these ratings are not meaningful until teams have played 6-7 games, so if you're here early, be VERY warned!
< DAVID ROTHMAN'S COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS >
BASED ON 467 GAMES BETWEEN 267 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
THROUGH GAMES OF SATURDAY 19 SEPTEMBER 2026
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Team W L Rating PCT. RRE Conf.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Texas 3 0 131.26 .913 .996 SEC
2 Ohio State 2 1 121.44 .745 .988 B10
3 Mississippi 3 0 116.96 .882 .981 SEC
4 Mississippi St 3 0 110.87 .942 .969 SEC
5 Alabama 3 0 109.17 .967 .965 SEC
6 Notre Dame 3 0 107.42 .975 .960 FBSIND
7 Michigan 3 0 106.23 .869 .957 B10
8 Indiana 3 0 105.75 .996 .955 B10
9 Louisville 2 1 105.64 .696 .955 ACC
10 Florida 3 0 105.41 .940 .954 SEC
11 West Virginia 3 0 102.79 .914 .945 B12
12 LSU 2 1 102.64 .708 .945 SEC
13 Tulsa 3 0 101.22 .919 .940 AMER
14 Missouri 3 0 100.70 .941 .938 SEC
15 Texas-San Antonio 2 1 100.19 .612 .936 AMER
16 South Carolina 2 1 96.31 .714 .919 SEC
17 Vanderbilt 3 0 95.42 .879 .915 SEC
18 Oklahoma 2 1 94.64 .670 .912 SEC
19 Western Michigan 2 1 94.38 .693 .911 MAC
20 Kansas St 3 0 93.78 .959 .908 B12
21 Virginia Tech 3 0 93.26 .948 .905 ACC
22 Miami FL 3 0 93.03 .970 .904 ACC
23 Auburn 2 1 92.40 .645 .901 SEC
24 Duke 3 0 92.23 .905 .900 ACC
25 Virginia 2 1 92.07 .694 .899 ACC
26 Kentucky 2 1 88.74 .630 .881 SEC
27 SMU 2 1 88.72 .636 .881 ACC
28 Brigham Young 3 0 88.57 .948 .880 B12
29 Utah 3 0 88.19 .994 .878 B12
30 Texas St-San Marcos 1 2 88.04 .367 .878 PAC12
31 Troy 2 1 87.81 .618 .876 SUN
32 Nebraska 3 0 87.59 .988 .875 B10
33 Oklahoma St 2 1 87.46 .647 .874 B12
34 Delaware 2 1 85.75 .660 .864 CUSA
35 Northwestern 2 0 85.29 .964 .862 B10
36 UCLA 3 0 85.13 .945 .861 B10
37 Pittsburgh 3 0 84.99 .914 .860 ACC
38 Baylor 2 1 82.71 .725 .846 B12
39 New Mexico 2 1 82.10 .709 .842 MWC
40 Iowa 3 0 81.75 .930 .840 B10
41 Minnesota 2 1 81.57 .671 .839 B10
42 Michigan St 2 1 81.55 .642 .839 B10
43 Sam Houston St 1 2 81.50 .456 .839 CUSA
44 Penn State 3 0 81.28 .981 .837 B10
45 Maryland 2 1 79.30 .700 .825 B10
46 Georgia 3 0 79.01 .994 .823 SEC
47 Illinois 2 1 77.86 .713 .815 B10
48 Florida St 1 2 77.53 .409 .813 ACC
49 Rice 1 2 77.45 .378 .813 AMER
50 Coastal Carolina 1 2 76.88 .428 .809 SUN
51 Oregon 2 1 76.87 .663 .809 B10
52 Tulane 1 2 76.67 .331 .807 AMER
53 North Carolina St 1 2 76.42 .404 .806 ACC
54 Texas A&M 2 1 76.11 .699 .804 SEC
55 North Dakota St 4 0 75.85 .944 .802 MWC
56 Wake Forest 2 1 73.60 .611 .787 ACC
57 Central Florida 2 1 73.37 .700 .785 B12
58 Arizona 2 1 73.28 .688 .784 B12
59 South Florida 3 0 71.15 .897 .770 AMER
60 Clemson 2 1 71.06 .599 .769 ACC
61 Iowa St 2 1 70.17 .729 .763 B12
62 Idaho St 3 0 69.55 .962 .758 SKY
63 Texas Tech 3 0 69.23 .882 .756 B12
64 North Texas 1 2 69.22 .360 .756 AMER
65 Cincinnati 3 0 68.54 .921 .751 B12
66 Austin Peay 3 1 67.81 .740 .746 UAC
67 Tennessee 3 0 67.74 .984 .745 SEC
68 South Alabama 2 1 67.70 .664 .745 SUN
69 Boise St 2 1 66.68 .674 .737 PAC12
70 James Madison 3 0 66.00 .921 .732 SUN
71 California 2 1 65.25 .609 .727 ACC
72 Wisconsin 2 1 64.91 .665 .724 B10
73 Toledo 2 1 64.64 .626 .722 MAC
74 Washington 3 0 64.20 .897 .719 B10
75 Florida Atlantic 2 1 62.99 .567 .710 AMER
76 Purdue 1 2 62.98 .425 .710 B10
77 South Dakota St 3 1 62.67 .728 .707 MOVAL
78 Air Force 1 1 61.90 .578 .701 MWC
79 Houston 2 1 61.74 .711 .700 B12
80 Louisiana Tech 1 2 60.21 .356 .688 SUN
81 Army 1 1 60.19 .595 .688 AMER
82 North Carolina 2 1 59.43 .650 .682 ACC
83 Ohio U. 1 2 58.76 .324 .676 MAC
84 Central Michigan 2 1 58.13 .576 .671 MAC
85 Lehigh 4 0 57.32 .937 .665 PATR
86 Illinois St 4 0 56.65 .948 .659 MOVAL
87 Syracuse 1 2 56.34 .428 .657 ACC
88 Colorado St 2 1 56.23 .670 .656 PAC12
89 Connecticut 2 1 56.13 .669 .655 FBSIND
90 Campbell 3 1 55.98 .691 .654 COAS
91 Miami OH 1 2 55.67 .396 .651 MAC
92 Arizona St 2 1 54.97 .622 .645 B12
93 Temple 1 2 54.67 .420 .643 AMER
94 Georgia St 2 1 54.38 .666 .640 SUN
95 Nicholls St 2 2 53.67 .447 .634 STHLD
96 UTEP 1 2 52.90 .335 .628 MWC
97 Utah St 0 3 52.57 .108 .625 PAC12
98 Jacksonville St 2 2 52.13 .512 .621 CUSA
99 Southern Cal 4 0 51.85 .934 .618 B10
100 Colgate 3 1 51.65 .745 .617 PATR
101 Florida Int'l 1 2 51.10 .397 .612 CUSA
102 San Diego St 1 2 50.44 .376 .606 PAC12
103 Kent St 1 2 49.80 .322 .601 MAC
104 Memphis 3 1 49.56 .703 .598 AMER
105 TCU 2 1 49.38 .717 .597 B12
106 Youngstown St 2 2 48.34 .538 .588 MOVAL
107 Colorado 2 1 48.31 .587 .587 B12
108 Tennessee Tech 3 0 48.17 .961 .586 SOCON
109 Liberty 2 1 47.84 .636 .583 CUSA
110 Northern Arizona 3 1 47.76 .664 .582 SKY
111 South Dakota 3 1 47.55 .738 .580 MOVAL
112 Oregon St 1 2 47.51 .394 .580 PAC12
113 West Florida 2 1 46.82 .604 .574 UAC
114 Marshall 2 1 46.74 .540 .573 SUN
115 Navy 1 1 46.29 .560 .569 AMER
116 Akron 1 2 46.14 .345 .568 MAC
117 Arkansas 1 2 45.92 .323 .566 SEC
118 Washington St 1 2 45.68 .364 .564 PAC12
119 Dartmouth 0 1 45.37 .191 .561 IVY
120 Western Carolina 2 2 45.22 .525 .559 SOCON
121 Texas-Rio Grande Valley 2 2 44.93 .540 .557 STHLD
122 North Dakota 3 1 44.69 .737 .555 MOVAL
123 Northern Illinois 0 3 44.05 .073 .549 MWC
124 Kansas 1 2 43.77 .402 .546 B12
125 Stephen F. Austin 4 0 43.47 .952 .544 STHLD
126 Stanford 1 2 42.44 .302 .534 ACC
127 Georgia Southern 1 2 42.42 .416 .534 SUN
128 Fordham 1 3 41.13 .275 .522 PATR
129 Dayton 3 0 40.75 .912 .519 PION
130 Incarnate Word 2 1 40.19 .655 .513 STHLD
131 Tarleton St 4 0 40.06 .894 .512 UAC
132 Georgia Tech 1 2 39.57 .421 .508 ACC
133 UNLV 1 2 39.53 .366 .507 MWC
134 Richmond 3 1 38.71 .652 .500 PATR
135 Yale 1 0 37.89 .885 .492 IVY
136 Massachusetts 3 0 37.85 .962 .492 MAC
137 Louisiana-Lafayette 2 1 36.42 .628 .478 SUN
138 Southern Illinois 2 2 36.21 .485 .476 MOVAL
139 Missouri St 1 2 35.94 .385 .474 CUSA
140 Harvard 1 0 35.81 .974 .473 IVY
141 Montana St 4 0 35.76 .930 .472 SKY
142 Kennesaw St 1 2 35.48 .362 .469 CUSA
143 UC-Davis 3 1 35.44 .709 .469 SKY
144 Middle Tennessee St 2 1 34.36 .681 .459 CUSA
145 Houston Christian 2 2 33.68 .501 .453 STHLD
146 Ball St 1 2 33.23 .327 .448 MAC
147 Fresno St 2 1 32.32 .646 .440 PAC12
148 Cornell NY 0 1 32.10 .086 .438 IVY
149 Eastern Kentucky 1 3 31.76 .264 .434 UAC
150 Bethune-Cookman 2 1 31.49 .659 .432 SWAC
151 Appalachian St 3 0 31.40 .872 .431 SUN
152 Alabama St 2 1 31.21 .654 .429 SWAC
153 Southern Miss 1 2 29.75 .341 .415 SUN
154 Chattanooga 2 2 29.62 .540 .414 SOCON
155 Eastern Washington 1 3 29.31 .274 .411 SKY
156 Boston College 2 1 28.52 .577 .404 ACC
157 Arkansas St 1 2 28.06 .358 .399 SUN
158 Howard 1 2 26.94 .334 .389 MEAC
159 SE Louisiana 2 2 26.93 .451 .388 STHLD
160 SE Missouri St 2 2 26.92 .456 .388 OVC
161 Georgetown DC 0 2 26.85 .108 .388 PATR
162 William & Mary 2 2 26.77 .423 .387 PATR
163 McNeese St 1 3 26.55 .341 .385 STHLD
164 East Carolina 1 2 26.49 .335 .384 AMER
165 Hawai`i 1 2 26.39 .357 .383 MWC
166 Western Illinois 2 2 26.26 .507 .382 OVC
167 Alabama-Birmingham 1 2 26.10 .344 .381 AMER
168 Buffalo 1 2 26.01 .299 .380 MAC
169 East Tennessee St 2 2 25.99 .490 .379 SOCON
170 Bowling Green 0 3 25.56 .051 .375 MAC
171 South Carolina St 4 0 25.15 .936 .371 MEAC
172 Bryant 3 1 24.26 .696 .363 COAS
173 Wofford 2 2 23.14 .459 .352 SOCON
174 Prairie View A&M 1 3 22.56 .270 .347 SWAC
175 Monmouth NJ 2 2 22.53 .436 .346 COAS
176 Old Dominion 1 2 22.08 .399 .342 SUN
177 Indiana St 2 2 22.03 .516 .342 MOVAL
178 North Alabama 2 2 21.72 .522 .339 UAC
179 Delaware St 2 2 21.60 .483 .338 MEAC
180 Gardner-Webb 1 3 21.51 .363 .337 OVC
181 Holy Cross 0 4 21.02 .042 .332 PATR
182 Central Conn St 0 3 20.71 .061 .329 NEC
183 Stony Brook 2 2 20.51 .494 .327 COAS
184 Montana 3 1 20.37 .703 .326 SKY
185 Pennsylvania 1 0 19.40 .914 .317 IVY
186 Rutgers 0 3 19.35 .121 .316 B10
187 Portland St 0 4 18.91 .046 .312 SKY
188 Nevada 1 2 18.44 .410 .308 MWC
189 Furman 2 2 18.08 .500 .304 SOCON
190 San Jose St 2 2 18.04 .462 .304 MWC
191 New Mexico St 1 2 17.75 .389 .301 CUSA
192 Rhode Island 2 2 17.17 .495 .296 COAS
193 Wyoming 1 2 16.03 .324 .285 MWC
194 Eastern Illinois 1 3 15.56 .270 .281 OVC
195 Alabama A&M 3 1 15.33 .765 .279 SWAC
196 Louisiana-Monroe 0 3 14.18 .123 .268 SUN
197 Albany NY 2 2 13.30 .555 .260 COAS
198 Lindenwood 1 2 13.20 .331 .259 OVC
199 Northern Iowa 1 2 12.58 .371 .254 MOVAL
200 Villanova 2 2 12.55 .445 .253 PATR
201 Samford 0 3 12.16 .102 .250 SOCON
202 Robert Morris 2 1 11.93 .643 .248 NEC
203 Central Arkansas 2 2 11.40 .492 .243 UAC
204 Norfolk St 2 2 10.48 .500 .235 MEAC
205 Eastern Michigan 1 3 10.31 .269 .233 MAC
206 Mercer 2 2 10.13 .505 .232 SOCON
207 Jackson St 3 0 9.97 .924 .230 SWAC
208 Elon 3 1 9.93 .705 .230 COAS
209 Princeton 0 1 9.93 .150 .230 IVY
210 San Diego 1 2 9.04 .269 .222 PION
211 Charleston Southern 2 2 8.67 .513 .219 OVC
212 St Thomas MN 3 1 8.59 .655 .218 PION
213 Grambling St 2 1 7.88 .655 .212 SWAC
214 Southern U. 2 2 6.90 .499 .204 SWAC
215 Texas Southern 1 2 6.88 .305 .203 SWAC
216 Stetson 1 3 6.80 .255 .203 PION
217 Murray St 1 3 6.11 .245 .197 MOVAL
218 Alcorn St 2 2 5.87 .458 .195 SWAC
219 Southern Utah 1 3 5.85 .300 .195 SKY
220 Lamar 2 1 5.75 .566 .194 STHLD
221 West Georgia 0 4 5.63 .055 .193 UAC
222 Morgan St 3 1 4.24 .704 .181 MEAC
223 Duquesne 0 3 4.03 .004 .180 NEC
224 Utah Tech 0 4 3.03 .033 .172 SKY
225 Merrimack 1 3 3.01 .231 .171 FCSIND
226 New Hampshire 1 3 2.93 .238 .171 COAS
227 Bucknell 1 3 2.55 .313 .168 PATR
228 Sacred Heart 0 3 2.34 .125 .166 FCSIND
229 Weber St 2 2 1.43 .485 .159 SKY
230 The Citadel 1 2 1.15 .320 .157 SOCON
231 Mercyhurst 1 3 0.99 .250 .156 NEC
232 Tennessee-Martin 1 3 0.82 .279 .154 OVC
233 Tennessee St 1 3 0.07 .258 .149 OVC
234 Sacramento St 1 3 0.01 .286 .148 MAC
235 Butler 3 1 -0.95 .702 .141 PION
236 Wagner 1 3 -0.99 .253 .141 NEC
237 Cal Poly SLO 2 2 -1.15 .495 .140 SKY
238 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 2 2 -1.29 .505 .139 SWAC
239 Valparaiso 1 2 -2.36 .384 .131 PION
240 UNC-Charlotte 0 3 -2.49 .136 .130 AMER
241 Hampton 1 3 -2.64 .263 .129 COAS
242 LIU 0 4 -2.88 .066 .127 NEC
243 Northern Colorado 1 3 -3.05 .320 .126 SKY
244 North Carolina Central 2 2 -3.09 .487 .126 MEAC
245 Stonehill 1 3 -3.40 .296 .124 NEC
246 Abilene Christian 1 3 -3.41 .251 .124 UAC
247 Florida A&M 1 3 -5.69 .293 .109 SWAC
248 Maine 1 3 -5.78 .271 .108 COAS
249 Presbyterian 1 2 -6.37 .296 .105 PION
250 Brown 1 0 -7.81 .850 .096 IVY
251 East Texas A&M 1 3 -8.07 .280 .095 STHLD
252 Idaho 0 4 -12.09 .144 .073 SKY
253 Lafayette 1 2 -14.28 .325 .063 PATR
254 Davidson 2 2 -14.49 .471 .062 PION
255 Morehead St 1 3 -14.62 .305 .061 PION
256 North Carolina A&T 0 4 -15.26 .068 .059 COAS
257 New Haven 1 3 -15.94 .242 .056 NEC
258 Towson 0 4 -16.21 .075 .055 COAS
259 Columbia 1 0 -16.45 .837 .054 IVY
260 Western Kentucky 0 3 -17.16 .004 .051 CUSA
261 Marist 1 2 -17.68 .433 .049 PION
262 Chicago St 1 3 -19.93 .272 .041 NEC
263 Non-Division I 6 51 -20.08 .124 .041 NON-D1
264 Mississippi Valley St 1 3 -20.39 .244 .040 SWAC
265 VMI 0 4 -21.99 .082 .035 SOCON
266 Drake 0 3 -30.27 .072 .016 PION
267 Northwestern St 0 4 -33.02 .054 .012 STHLD
Explanations:
These rankings use the method developed by David Rothman (1935-2004),
founder of the Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and
Tournaments (FACT). David's work was a part of college football's
Bowl Championship Series for multiple years. His formula considers
only margin of victory for in-season games (past data, date of game,
and location are ignored).
David's original code was written in BASIC in the 1970s -- the copy
that I have is from November 1990 -- and I have rewritten it in
Python to match the original numbers exactly. The only differences
should be in the formatting of the output.
Columns:
Rating: measures a team's strength by balancing their results against
opponent quality. Ratings are iteratively adjusted until the system
reaches a best fit across the entire season. Scores use a
logistic function to give diminishing returns on blowouts.
Pct: the normalized margin-of-victory for a team's games. Rothman
uses "diminshing returns" so that running up the score does not add
much additional information.
RRE: a team's expected win percentage if we were able to play a full
round-robin schedule among all the teams listed. It's functionally
the same as the Rating, just expressed in a different way.
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS (FACT)
DAVID ROTHMAN (1935-2004), FOUNDER
FACT Rankings calculated by Cody Kirkpatrick
talismanred.com/ratings
LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF SEASON 1 Non-Division I NON-D1 7 Chicago St NEC 78 0.50 2 Non-Division I NON-D1 41 Davidson PION 35 0.59 3 Non-Division I NON-D1 44 Chicago St NEC 28 0.63 4 Rhode Island COAS 24 Stony Brook COAS 56 0.63 5 Non-Division I NON-D1 21 Mississippi Valley St SWAC 6 0.65 |
More Details
I've preserved David's original BASIC source code (last update: 1990!!) if you'd like to get it and try it out yourself. In my testing, it has good results for football, basketball, soccer, and ice hockey, so I imagine it would be useful for just about any sport. (That was the point, when he created it.)
David's rankings were part of college football's Bowl Championship Series from 1999 to 2001, but the next year the BCS managers decided to remove margin of victory from all of the computers that were part of the formula. David refused to change, and that ended his BCS run. If you grab the code and want to do a "politically correct" calculation that does not consider margin of victory, then just change all the scores to 1-0, or 2-0, or 49-0, whatever. Serves the same purpose.
If you download his code (link above), and use it, let me know. I'd love to hear about it.
But on this site...
...I use a version of his code that I developed in Python. Why? So that I can run it in my modern workflow. The numbers reproduce exactly (I've checked in multiple sports), even with over 15,000 games, so I hope that David wouldn't take offense to modernizing the hardware. But I have made sure that I absolutely preserve his math.
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