Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate. 20 Jan 2026 update: The performance this year has been, well, woof. I noticed an error that was keeping way too many old games in the predictions file. Hopefully things will improve from here forward.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings Last updated 11-Feb-2026 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 38 13 3 3.40 60.13 2 2 Detroit 38 12 2 2.96 56.89 1 3 San Antonio 36 16 1 2.53 55.98 3 4 Boston 33 19 1 2.29 56.08 5 5 Houston 32 14 6 2.27 54.71 4 6 New York 33 19 2 1.85 54.55 7 7 Cleveland 33 19 2 1.81 53.93 6 8 Minnesota 32 20 3 1.23 53.60 11 9 Phoenix 32 21 1 1.22 52.51 8 10 Denver 31 18 5 1.19 52.75 9 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Toronto 30 20 4 0.84 51.15 10 12 Golden State 28 24 2 0.80 52.30 15 13 Charlotte 23 28 3 0.51 52.81 17 14 Philadelphia 26 20 7 0.46 50.33 12 15 Orlando 26 23 3 0.40 50.21 14 16 LA Lakers 32 21 0 0.11 48.75 13 17 LA Clippers 23 28 2 0.08 50.35 16 18 Miami 27 27 1 0.08 51.42 20 19 Portland 25 27 2 -0.34 48.76 18 20 Atlanta 25 29 1 -0.44 48.79 19 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Chicago 24 29 1 -1.21 46.22 21 22 Dallas 17 32 4 -1.40 47.92 23 23 Milwaukee 19 29 3 -1.47 45.87 22 24 Memphis 19 31 2 -1.55 47.37 24 25 New Orleans 14 36 5 -2.12 46.01 26 26 Brooklyn 15 35 2 -2.64 42.95 25 27 Indiana 13 39 2 -2.75 43.70 29 28 Utah 14 35 5 -2.82 42.72 27 29 Washington 14 36 2 -3.40 40.28 28 30 Sacramento 10 42 3 -3.90 40.94 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 11-Feb-2026 07 AM ET) --- Atlantic CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston 6 5 1 33 19 1 2.29 ( 4) 56.08 27 14 0 -0.40 ( 28) 2 New York 9 3 0 33 19 2 1.85 ( 6) 54.55 24 16 2 -0.34 ( 26) 3 Toronto 3 9 1 30 20 4 0.84 ( 11) 51.15 27 11 3 -0.36 ( 27) 4 Philadelphia 8 4 1 26 20 7 0.46 ( 14) 50.33 18 16 6 -0.23 ( 24) 5 Brooklyn 3 8 1 15 35 2 -2.64 ( 26) 42.95 12 27 1 -0.25 ( 25) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Detroit 8 3 0 38 12 2 2.96 ( 2) 56.89 30 9 2 -0.19 ( 22) 2 Cleveland 7 3 0 33 19 2 1.81 ( 7) 53.93 26 16 2 0.24 ( 5) 3 Chicago 3 9 0 24 29 1 -1.21 ( 21) 46.22 21 20 1 -0.22 ( 23) 4 Milwaukee 7 4 0 19 29 3 -1.47 ( 23) 45.87 12 25 3 -0.07 ( 19) 5 Indiana 3 9 0 13 39 2 -2.75 ( 27) 43.70 10 30 2 0.28 ( 3) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Charlotte 7 4 0 23 28 3 0.51 ( 13) 52.81 16 24 3 0.08 ( 13) 2 Orlando 6 5 0 26 23 3 0.40 ( 15) 50.21 20 18 3 0.28 ( 4) 3 Miami 4 5 0 27 27 1 0.08 ( 18) 51.42 23 22 1 0.20 ( 7) 4 Atlanta 5 4 0 25 29 1 -0.44 ( 20) 48.79 20 25 1 0.35 ( 2) 5 Washington 2 6 0 14 36 2 -3.40 ( 29) 40.28 12 30 2 0.06 ( 14) --- Northwest CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 7 3 1 38 13 3 3.40 ( 1) 60.13 31 10 2 -0.14 ( 21) 2 Minnesota 5 4 1 32 20 3 1.23 ( 8) 53.60 27 16 2 -0.54 ( 30) 3 Denver 3 2 1 31 18 5 1.19 ( 10) 52.75 28 16 4 -0.44 ( 29) 4 Portland 4 4 0 25 27 2 -0.34 ( 19) 48.76 21 23 2 0.15 ( 10) 5 Utah 1 7 1 14 35 5 -2.82 ( 28) 42.72 13 28 4 0.09 ( 12) --- Pacific CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Phoenix 8 6 0 32 21 1 1.22 ( 9) 52.51 24 15 1 0.17 ( 9) 2 Golden State 6 4 0 28 24 2 0.80 ( 12) 52.30 22 20 2 0.05 ( 15) 3 LA Lakers 5 6 0 32 21 0 0.11 ( 16) 48.75 27 15 0 0.03 ( 16) 4 LA Clippers 7 4 0 23 28 2 0.08 ( 17) 50.35 16 24 2 0.12 ( 11) 5 Sacramento 2 8 0 10 42 3 -3.90 ( 30) 40.94 8 34 3 0.40 ( 1) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 San Antonio 9 3 1 36 16 1 2.53 ( 3) 55.98 27 13 0 0.19 ( 8) 2 Houston 6 4 1 32 14 6 2.27 ( 5) 54.71 26 10 5 0.01 ( 17) 3 Dallas 3 9 0 17 32 4 -1.40 ( 22) 47.92 14 23 4 -0.14 ( 20) 4 Memphis 4 6 1 19 31 2 -1.55 ( 24) 47.37 15 25 1 -0.03 ( 18) 5 New Orleans 5 5 3 14 36 5 -2.12 ( 25) 46.01 9 31 2 0.21 ( 6)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Atlantic 0.56 2 Northwest 0.53 3 Southeast -0.05 4 Central -0.13 5 Pacific -0.34 6 Southeast -0.57
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 11-Feb-2026 Atlanta Charlotte 235 HOME by 5.51 11-Feb-2026 Washington Cleveland 238 HOME by 15.14 11-Feb-2026 Milwaukee Orlando 222 HOME by 5.82 11-Feb-2026 Chicago Boston 231 HOME by 11.36 11-Feb-2026 Indiana Brooklyn 223 HOME by 0.73 11-Feb-2026 New York Philadelphia 228 AWAY by -2.73 11-Feb-2026 Detroit Toronto 224 AWAY by -4.25 11-Feb-2026 LA Clippers Houston 214 HOME by 5.85 11-Feb-2026 Portland Minnesota 228 HOME by 6.32 11-Feb-2026 Miami New Orleans 239 AWAY by -3.92 11-Feb-2026 Oklahoma City Phoenix 218 AWAY by -6.13 11-Feb-2026 Sacramento Utah 249 HOME by 3.26 11-Feb-2026 Memphis Denver 234 HOME by 6.86 11-Feb-2026 San Antonio Golden State 231 AWAY by -2.19 12-Feb-2026 Milwaukee Oklahoma City 215 HOME by 15.74 12-Feb-2026 Portland Utah 250 AWAY by -4.55 12-Feb-2026 Dallas LA Lakers 232 HOME by 2.32
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
In 2025-26, about mid-January I noticed that this year's predictions were doing terribly (61%, compared to most of the other computers at 65-66%). So I did what any self-respecting programmer would do, I adjusted the formula in hopes of improving accuracy. I'll report back with the results. One of the big factors is how much recent information do you keep when trying to predict a team's performance. A couple weeks? A month? The whole season?
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.