Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings Last updated 27-Oct-2025 08 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 1 0 2 4.07 61.27 1 2 Cleveland 2 1 0 2.55 57.87 3 3 Boston 0 3 0 2.53 57.29 2 4 Minnesota 2 1 0 2.01 55.82 5 5 LA Clippers 2 1 0 1.94 56.24 8 6 Indiana 0 2 1 1.80 54.41 4 7 Denver 1 1 0 1.62 54.20 7 8 Golden State 2 1 0 1.57 53.79 6 9 Detroit 2 1 0 1.49 54.66 11 10 Houston 0 1 1 1.41 53.51 9 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 New York 2 1 0 1.16 52.64 10 12 Milwaukee 2 1 0 1.14 52.94 12 13 LA Lakers 2 1 0 0.76 51.80 13 14 Portland 1 2 0 0.44 51.96 15 15 Chicago 2 0 0 0.09 49.79 14 16 Memphis 2 1 0 -0.17 49.93 19 17 Orlando 1 2 0 -0.28 49.03 16 18 Sacramento 1 2 0 -0.37 48.78 18 19 Toronto 1 2 0 -0.46 48.07 17 20 San Antonio 2 0 1 -0.66 48.46 21 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Atlanta 1 2 0 -0.84 47.68 22 22 Phoenix 1 2 0 -0.91 46.81 20 23 Dallas 1 2 0 -1.33 45.57 23 24 Miami 2 1 0 -1.42 47.48 24 25 Philadelphia 2 0 0 -2.76 42.76 26 26 Charlotte 2 1 0 -2.82 42.46 27 27 Brooklyn 0 3 0 -2.87 41.88 25 28 Utah 1 1 0 -2.89 42.59 29 29 New Orleans 0 1 1 -3.07 41.57 28 30 Washington 1 2 0 -3.72 38.75 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 27-Oct-2025 08 AM ET) --- Atlantic CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston 0 2 0 0 3 0 2.53 ( 3) 57.29 0 1 0 1.49 ( 8) 2 New York 1 0 0 2 1 0 1.16 ( 11) 52.64 1 1 0 0.57 ( 13) 3 Toronto 0 0 0 1 2 0 -0.46 ( 19) 48.07 1 2 0 -0.34 ( 21) 4 Philadelphia 1 0 0 2 0 0 -2.76 ( 25) 42.76 1 0 0 -2.82 ( 27) 5 Brooklyn 0 0 0 0 3 0 -2.87 ( 27) 41.88 0 3 0 -0.31 ( 20) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Cleveland 1 0 0 2 1 0 2.55 ( 2) 57.87 1 1 0 -0.86 ( 22) 2 Indiana 0 0 0 0 2 1 1.80 ( 6) 54.41 0 2 1 1.97 ( 3) 3 Detroit 0 1 0 2 1 0 1.49 ( 9) 54.66 2 0 0 1.97 ( 4) 4 Milwaukee 0 1 0 2 1 0 1.14 ( 12) 52.94 2 0 0 -2.09 ( 25) 5 Chicago 1 0 0 2 0 0 0.09 ( 15) 49.79 1 0 0 -0.28 ( 19) --- Southeast CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Orlando 1 1 0 1 2 0 -0.28 ( 17) 49.03 0 1 0 0.09 ( 17) 2 Atlanta 1 0 0 1 2 0 -0.84 ( 21) 47.68 0 2 0 1.80 ( 5) 3 Miami 0 1 0 2 1 0 -1.42 ( 24) 47.48 2 0 0 0.49 ( 14) 4 Charlotte 1 0 0 2 1 0 -2.82 ( 26) 42.46 1 1 0 -2.81 ( 26) 5 Washington 0 1 0 1 2 0 -3.72 ( 30) 38.75 1 1 0 -0.09 ( 18) --- Northwest CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 0 0 0 1 0 2 4.07 ( 1) 61.27 1 0 2 0.79 ( 11) 2 Minnesota 1 0 0 2 1 0 2.01 ( 4) 55.82 1 1 0 1.28 ( 9) 3 Denver 0 0 0 1 1 0 1.62 ( 7) 54.20 1 1 0 0.33 ( 15) 4 Portland 0 1 0 1 2 0 0.44 ( 14) 51.96 1 1 0 1.75 ( 6) 5 Utah 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2.89 ( 28) 42.59 1 1 0 0.78 ( 12) --- Pacific CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 LA Clippers 1 0 0 2 1 0 1.94 ( 5) 56.24 1 1 0 -1.23 ( 23) 2 Golden State 1 0 0 2 1 0 1.57 ( 8) 53.79 1 1 0 1.03 ( 10) 3 LA Lakers 1 1 0 2 1 0 0.76 ( 13) 51.80 1 0 0 2.01 ( 2) 4 Sacramento 0 2 0 1 2 0 -0.37 ( 18) 48.78 1 0 0 -2.89 ( 29) 5 Phoenix 1 1 0 1 2 0 -0.91 ( 22) 46.81 0 1 0 1.62 ( 7) --- Southeast CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 0 0 0 0 1 1 1.41 ( 10) 53.51 0 1 1 2.78 ( 1) 2 Memphis 1 0 0 2 1 0 -0.17 ( 16) 49.93 1 1 0 0.19 ( 16) 3 San Antonio 1 0 1 2 0 1 -0.66 ( 20) 48.46 1 0 0 -2.87 ( 28) 4 Dallas 0 1 0 1 2 0 -1.33 ( 23) 45.57 1 1 0 -2.09 ( 24) 5 New Orleans 0 1 1 0 1 1 -3.07 ( 29) 41.57 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 30)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 1.41 2 Northwest 1.05 3 Pacific 0.60 4 Atlantic -0.48 5 Southeast -0.76 6 Southeast -1.82
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 27-Oct-2025 Cleveland Detroit 237 AWAY by -1.41 27-Oct-2025 Orlando Philadelphia 215 AWAY by -4.46 27-Oct-2025 Atlanta Chicago 247 HOME by 3.92 27-Oct-2025 Brooklyn Houston 209 HOME by 13.43 27-Oct-2025 Boston New Orleans 215 AWAY by -13.91 27-Oct-2025 Toronto San Antonio 238 HOME by 2.20 27-Oct-2025 Oklahoma City Dallas 225 AWAY by -13.89 27-Oct-2025 Phoenix Utah 234 AWAY by -2.41 27-Oct-2025 Denver Minnesota 230 HOME by 3.42 27-Oct-2025 Memphis Golden State 233 HOME by 5.66 27-Oct-2025 Portland LA Lakers 221 HOME by 1.64 28-Oct-2025 Philadelphia Washington 234 AWAY by -2.21 28-Oct-2025 Charlotte Miami 217 HOME by 6.82 28-Oct-2025 New York Milwaukee 227 HOME by 2.10 28-Oct-2025 Sacramento Oklahoma City 233 HOME by 14.29 28-Oct-2025 LA Clippers Golden State 216 AWAY by -0.65 29-Oct-2025 Cleveland Boston 229 HOME by 1.22 29-Oct-2025 Orlando Detroit 215 HOME by 7.44 29-Oct-2025 Atlanta Brooklyn 228 AWAY by -3.99 29-Oct-2025 Houston Toronto 228 AWAY by -3.64 29-Oct-2025 Sacramento Chicago 239 HOME by 2.82 29-Oct-2025 Indiana Dallas 227 AWAY by -7.04 29-Oct-2025 New Orleans Denver 243 HOME by 14.43 29-Oct-2025 Portland Utah 233 AWAY by -7.56 29-Oct-2025 LA Lakers Minnesota 228 HOME by 5.82 29-Oct-2025 Memphis Phoenix 240 AWAY by -1.32 30-Oct-2025 Orlando Charlotte 209 AWAY by -4.76 30-Oct-2025 Golden State Milwaukee 235 HOME by 0.96 30-Oct-2025 Washington Oklahoma City 226 HOME by 24.32 30-Oct-2025 Miami San Antonio 232 HOME by 2.79 31-Oct-2025 Atlanta Indiana 241 HOME by 8.54 31-Oct-2025 Boston Philadelphia 218 AWAY by -12.72 31-Oct-2025 Toronto Cleveland 229 HOME by 11.61 31-Oct-2025 New York Chicago 227 AWAY by -1.04 31-Oct-2025 LA Lakers Memphis 240 AWAY by -0.06 31-Oct-2025 Utah Phoenix 240 HOME by 6.02 31-Oct-2025 Denver Portland 226 AWAY by -0.43 31-Oct-2025 New Orleans LA Clippers 228 HOME by 16.47 01-Nov-2025 Sacramento Milwaukee 239 HOME by 5.96 01-Nov-2025 Minnesota Charlotte 217 AWAY by -11.55 01-Nov-2025 Golden State Indiana 229 HOME by 2.43 01-Nov-2025 Orlando Washington 217 AWAY by -8.47 01-Nov-2025 Houston Boston 224 HOME by 5.58 01-Nov-2025 Dallas Detroit 232 HOME by 10.89
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.