Computer Ratings
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2010 National Basketball Association
Computer Ratings |
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This is my first rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Pts" column. You can the calculation for some upcoming games on the right. Don't forget to add in home "field" advantage, which is listed just below the current predictions on the right.
Ratings last updated Tuesday 05/08/12, 08:05 PM ET
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BCS-Style
Rank Team W L Rating Pts Rank
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1 Oklahoma City 40 15 3.199 7.29 2
2 San Antonio 39 14 3.049 5.99 1
3 Chicago 43 13 2.870 6.52 3
4 Miami 39 15 2.761 6.19 4
5 Memphis 32 23 1.513 2.94 6
6 LA Lakers 35 22 1.351 1.97 5
7 LA Clippers 34 22 1.146 2.15 7
8 Indiana 34 22 1.102 2.59 10
9 Dallas 31 26 1.062 2.36 8
10 Boston 31 24 0.954 1.91 9
11 Houston 30 25 0.866 1.69 12
12 Orlando 33 23 0.756 1.07 11
13 Atlanta 34 23 0.657 0.98 13
14 Philadelphia 29 26 0.577 3.18 19
15 New York 27 28 0.556 2.62 18
16 Denver 31 25 0.307 0.52 15
17 Phoenix 29 27 0.304 -0.25 14
18 Milwaukee 28 28 0.291 0.63 16
19 Utah 29 27 0.206 0.59 17
20 Portland 27 30 -0.291 0.39 21
21 Minnesota 25 32 -0.404 -0.66 20
22 Golden State 22 33 -0.891 -1.37 22
23 Detroit 21 34 -1.923 -5.09 23
24 Sacramento 19 37 -2.026 -4.53 25
25 Toronto 20 36 -2.069 -4.15 26
26 New Jersey 20 37 -2.108 -5.00 24
27 New Orleans 14 42 -2.333 -4.23 28
28 Cleveland 18 35 -2.929 -7.43 27
29 Washington 12 44 -3.248 -6.47 29
30 Charlotte 8 46 -5.305 -12.41 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what
is used in college football.)
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PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES
Date Away Team Home Team Prediction
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Sun 08 Apr Utah San Antonio HOME by 7.90
Sun 08 Apr Toronto Oklahoma City HOME by 13.94
Sun 08 Apr Philadelphia Boston HOME by 1.22
Sun 08 Apr Houston Sacramento AWAY by -3.73
Sun 08 Apr Detroit Miami HOME by 13.77
Sun 08 Apr Cleveland New Jersey HOME by 4.92
Sun 08 Apr Chicago New York AWAY by -1.41
Mon 09 Apr Washington Charlotte AWAY by -3.45
Mon 09 Apr Toronto Indiana HOME by 9.23
Mon 09 Apr San Antonio Utah AWAY by -2.92
Mon 09 Apr Phoenix Minnesota HOME by 2.08
Mon 09 Apr Oklahoma City Milwaukee AWAY by -4.17
Mon 09 Apr LA Lakers New Orleans AWAY by -3.71
Mon 09 Apr LA Clippers Memphis HOME by 3.27
Mon 09 Apr Houston Portland HOME by 1.19
Mon 09 Apr Golden State Denver HOME by 4.38
Mon 09 Apr Detroit Orlando HOME by 8.65
Tue 10 Apr Sacramento Dallas HOME by 9.39
Tue 10 Apr Philadelphia New Jersey AWAY by -5.68
Tue 10 Apr Orlando Washington AWAY by -5.05
Tue 10 Apr New York Chicago HOME by 6.39
Tue 10 Apr Charlotte Cleveland HOME by 7.48
Tue 10 Apr Boston Miami HOME by 6.77
Wed 11 Apr Utah Houston HOME by 3.60
Wed 11 Apr Sacramento New Orleans HOME by 2.80
Wed 11 Apr Phoenix Memphis HOME by 5.68
Wed 11 Apr Philadelphia Toronto AWAY by -4.84
Wed 11 Apr New York Milwaukee HOME by 0.51
Wed 11 Apr Minnesota Denver HOME by 3.67
Wed 11 Apr LA Lakers San Antonio HOME by 6.51
Wed 11 Apr LA Clippers Oklahoma City HOME by 7.63
Wed 11 Apr Indiana Cleveland AWAY by -7.53
Wed 11 Apr Golden State Portland HOME by 4.24
Wed 11 Apr Atlanta Boston HOME by 3.42
Thu 12 Apr Miami Chicago HOME by 2.82
Thu 12 Apr Memphis San Antonio HOME by 5.55
Thu 12 Apr LA Clippers Minnesota AWAY by -0.32
Thu 12 Apr Detroit Charlotte AWAY by -4.83
Thu 12 Apr Dallas Golden State AWAY by -1.24
Fri 13 Apr Washington New York HOME by 11.58
Fri 13 Apr Utah New Orleans AWAY by -2.32
Fri 13 Apr Sacramento Oklahoma City HOME by 14.32
Fri 13 Apr Phoenix Houston HOME by 4.43
Fri 13 Apr New Jersey Philadelphia HOME by 10.67
Fri 13 Apr Milwaukee Detroit AWAY by -3.23
Fri 13 Apr Denver LA Lakers HOME by 3.94
Fri 13 Apr Dallas Portland HOME by 0.51
Fri 13 Apr Cleveland Indiana HOME by 12.51
Fri 13 Apr Charlotte Miami HOME by 21.09
Fri 13 Apr Boston Toronto AWAY by -3.57
Fri 13 Apr Atlanta Orlando HOME by 2.59
Sat 14 Apr Utah Memphis HOME by 4.84
Sat 14 Apr Phoenix San Antonio HOME by 8.73
Sat 14 Apr Oklahoma City Minnesota AWAY by -5.46
Sat 14 Apr Indiana Milwaukee HOME by 0.54
Sat 14 Apr Golden State LA Clippers HOME by 6.01
Sat 14 Apr Cleveland Washington HOME by 3.45
Sat 14 Apr Boston New Jersey AWAY by -4.41
Sun 15 Apr Toronto Atlanta HOME by 7.62
Sun 15 Apr Portland Sacramento AWAY by -2.43
Sun 15 Apr Orlando Cleveland AWAY by -6.01
Sun 15 Apr Miami New York AWAY by -1.08
Sun 15 Apr Memphis New Orleans AWAY by -4.68
Sun 15 Apr Houston Denver HOME by 1.32
Sun 15 Apr Dallas LA Lakers HOME by 2.10
Sun 15 Apr Chicago Detroit AWAY by -9.12
Sun 15 Apr Boston Charlotte AWAY by -11.83
Mon 16 Apr Washington Chicago HOME by 15.48
Mon 16 Apr San Antonio Golden State AWAY by -4.87
Mon 16 Apr Portland Phoenix HOME by 1.86
Mon 16 Apr Philadelphia Orlando HOME by 0.39
Mon 16 Apr Oklahoma City LA Clippers AWAY by -2.65
Mon 16 Apr New Orleans Charlotte AWAY by -5.69
Mon 16 Apr Minnesota Indiana HOME by 5.74
Mon 16 Apr Miami New Jersey AWAY by -8.70
Mon 16 Apr Denver Houston HOME by 3.66
Mon 16 Apr Dallas Utah HOME by 0.71
Mon 16 Apr Atlanta Toronto AWAY by -2.64
Tue 17 Apr San Antonio LA Lakers AWAY by -1.53
Tue 17 Apr Memphis Minnesota AWAY by -1.10
Tue 17 Apr Indiana Philadelphia HOME by 3.08
Tue 17 Apr Cleveland Detroit HOME by 4.83
Tue 17 Apr Boston New York HOME by 3.20
Wed 18 Apr Utah Portland HOME by 2.29
Wed 18 Apr Toronto Miami HOME by 12.83
Wed 18 Apr San Antonio Sacramento AWAY by -8.04
Wed 18 Apr Philadelphia Cleveland AWAY by -8.11
Wed 18 Apr Orlando Boston HOME by 3.32
Wed 18 Apr Oklahoma City Phoenix AWAY by -5.05
Wed 18 Apr New York New Jersey AWAY by -5.13
Wed 18 Apr New Orleans Memphis HOME by 9.66
Wed 18 Apr Milwaukee Washington AWAY by -4.61
Wed 18 Apr LA Lakers Golden State AWAY by -0.85
Wed 18 Apr LA Clippers Denver HOME by 0.86
Wed 18 Apr Houston Dallas HOME by 3.16
Wed 18 Apr Detroit Atlanta HOME by 8.55
Wed 18 Apr Chicago Charlotte AWAY by -16.44
Thu 19 Apr Minnesota Detroit AWAY by -1.94
Thu 19 Apr Milwaukee Indiana HOME by 4.45
Thu 19 Apr LA Clippers Phoenix HOME by 0.09
Thu 19 Apr Houston New Orleans AWAY by -3.43
Thu 19 Apr Chicago Miami HOME by 2.16
Fri 20 Apr Oklahoma City Sacramento AWAY by -9.34
Fri 20 Apr New York Cleveland AWAY by -7.56
Fri 20 Apr Memphis Charlotte AWAY by -12.86
Fri 20 Apr LA Lakers San Antonio HOME by 6.51
Fri 20 Apr Golden State Dallas HOME by 6.22
Fri 20 Apr Boston Atlanta HOME by 1.56
Sat 21 Apr Washington Miami HOME by 15.15
Sat 21 Apr Portland Memphis HOME by 5.04
Sat 21 Apr Philadelphia Indiana HOME by 1.90
Sat 21 Apr Orlando Utah HOME by 2.00
Sat 21 Apr New Jersey Milwaukee HOME by 8.12
Sat 21 Apr Golden State Houston HOME by 5.55
Sat 21 Apr Denver Phoenix HOME by 1.72
Sat 21 Apr Dallas Chicago HOME by 6.64
Sun 22 Apr Toronto Detroit HOME by 1.55
Sun 22 Apr Sacramento Charlotte AWAY by -5.39
Sun 22 Apr Orlando Denver HOME by 1.94
Sun 22 Apr Oklahoma City LA Lakers AWAY by -2.83
Sun 22 Apr New York Atlanta HOME by 0.85
Sun 22 Apr New Orleans LA Clippers HOME by 8.87
Sun 22 Apr Houston Miami HOME by 6.99
Sun 22 Apr Golden State Minnesota HOME by 3.20
Sun 22 Apr Cleveland San Antonio HOME by 15.91
Mon 23 Apr Toronto Milwaukee HOME by 7.28
Mon 23 Apr Portland San Antonio HOME by 8.10
Mon 23 Apr Philadelphia New Jersey AWAY by -5.68
Mon 23 Apr Detroit Indiana HOME by 10.17
Mon 23 Apr Cleveland Memphis HOME by 12.86
Mon 23 Apr Charlotte Washington HOME by 8.43
Tue 24 Apr Sacramento Oklahoma City HOME by 14.32
Tue 24 Apr Phoenix Utah HOME by 3.32
Tue 24 Apr New Orleans Golden State HOME by 5.35
Tue 24 Apr Miami Boston AWAY by -1.79
Tue 24 Apr LA Clippers Atlanta HOME by 1.31
Wed 25 Apr Washington Cleveland HOME by 1.53
Wed 25 Apr San Antonio Phoenix AWAY by -3.75
Wed 25 Apr Philadelphia Milwaukee AWAY by -0.05
Wed 25 Apr LA Clippers New York HOME by 2.96
Wed 25 Apr Denver Oklahoma City HOME by 9.27
Wed 25 Apr Chicago Indiana AWAY by -1.44
Wed 25 Apr Charlotte Orlando HOME by 15.98
Thu 26 Apr San Antonio Golden State AWAY by -4.87
Thu 26 Apr Portland Utah HOME by 2.69
Thu 26 Apr Philadelphia Detroit AWAY by -5.77
Thu 26 Apr Orlando Memphis HOME by 4.36
Thu 26 Apr New York Charlotte AWAY by -12.54
Thu 26 Apr New Orleans Houston HOME by 8.41
Thu 26 Apr New Jersey Toronto HOME by 3.34
Thu 26 Apr Milwaukee Boston HOME by 3.76
Thu 26 Apr Miami Washington AWAY by -10.17
Thu 26 Apr LA Lakers Sacramento AWAY by -4.02
Thu 26 Apr Denver Minnesota HOME by 1.31
Thu 26 Apr Dallas Atlanta HOME by 1.10
Thu 26 Apr Cleveland Chicago HOME by 16.44
Current home field advantage is: 2.49 MAE for games to date: 8.85 These ratings fit to produce 0.68 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.98: 0.80 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.07. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 4.91. Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Home "field" advantage is shown first. MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but to me it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be. Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful. |
About the author
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I now work in Boulder, Colorado, in the broad areas of science education and numerical weather prediction (that is, forecasting the weather using computer models). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.