National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Thursday 03/24/22, 04:21 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Phoenix 58 15 3.72 57.85 1 2 Golden State 49 24 2.58 56.25 2 3 Memphis 49 24 2.21 54.82 3 4 Boston 46 28 2.12 55.52 6 5 Utah 46 27 2.08 55.66 8 6 Dallas 45 28 1.89 53.85 5 7 Miami 47 26 1.73 52.83 4 8 Milwaukee 45 27 1.47 53.37 9 9 Minnesota 42 32 1.37 53.31 10 10 Philadelphia 44 27 1.29 51.77 7 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Toronto 40 32 1.19 53.00 13 12 Denver 42 30 1.03 52.21 12 13 Chicago 42 30 0.92 51.51 11 14 Cleveland 41 31 0.88 52.21 14 15 Brooklyn 38 35 0.33 50.75 15 16 Atlanta 36 37 0.23 50.88 16 17 Charlotte 37 36 -0.23 49.16 17 18 LA Clippers 36 38 -0.52 48.32 18 19 New York 30 43 -0.66 49.64 20 20 New Orleans 30 40 -0.66 48.79 19 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 San Antonio 29 44 -0.71 49.86 21 22 Sacramento 26 48 -1.59 46.94 25 23 Indiana 25 48 -1.66 47.65 26 24 Washington 30 41 -1.68 46.33 24 25 LA Lakers 31 42 -1.83 45.27 22 26 Portland 28 44 -2.37 43.02 23 27 Detroit 20 53 -3.10 42.55 27 28 Orlando 20 54 -3.14 42.75 28 29 Oklahoma City 21 52 -3.16 42.81 29 30 Houston 18 55 -3.76 41.11 30

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Atlantic 0.86 2 Pacific 0.47 3 Southeast -0.21 4 Northwest -0.21 5 Central -0.30 6 Southeast -0.62

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 24-Mar-2022 Cleveland Toronto 205 HOME by 2.64 24-Mar-2022 Indiana Memphis 222 HOME by 9.03 24-Mar-2022 Washington Milwaukee 223 HOME by 8.89 24-Mar-2022 Chicago New Orleans 222 AWAY by -0.87 24-Mar-2022 Phoenix Denver 224 AWAY by -3.79 25-Mar-2022 Utah Charlotte 224 AWAY by -4.65 25-Mar-2022 Washington Detroit 213 AWAY by -1.94 25-Mar-2022 Golden State Atlanta 224 AWAY by -3.52 25-Mar-2022 New York Miami 209 HOME by 5.04 25-Mar-2022 Dallas Minnesota 213 HOME by 1.30 25-Mar-2022 Houston Portland 227 HOME by 3.76 25-Mar-2022 Philadelphia LA Clippers 212 AWAY by -1.60 26-Mar-2022 San Antonio New Orleans 224 HOME by 0.77 26-Mar-2022 Sacramento Orlando 221 AWAY by -2.34 26-Mar-2022 Indiana Toronto 215 HOME by 7.20 26-Mar-2022 Chicago Cleveland 212 HOME by 2.55 26-Mar-2022 Milwaukee Memphis 227 HOME by 3.30 26-Mar-2022 Brooklyn Miami 224 HOME by 3.93 26-Mar-2022 Oklahoma City Denver 216 HOME by 11.25 26-Mar-2022 Houston Portland 227 HOME by 3.76 27-Mar-2022 New York Detroit 209 AWAY by -5.25 27-Mar-2022 Minnesota Boston 226 HOME by 4.07 27-Mar-2022 Philadelphia Phoenix 219 HOME by 7.93 27-Mar-2022 Golden State Washington 221 AWAY by -8.07 27-Mar-2022 LA Lakers New Orleans 224 HOME by 5.37 27-Mar-2022 Charlotte Brooklyn 234 HOME by 3.44 27-Mar-2022 Utah Dallas 207 HOME by 0.04 28-Mar-2022 Denver Charlotte 224 AWAY by -1.20 28-Mar-2022 Orlando Cleveland 204 HOME by 11.31 28-Mar-2022 Atlanta Indiana 229 AWAY by -1.38 28-Mar-2022 Sacramento Miami 222 HOME by 7.74 28-Mar-2022 Chicago New York 216 AWAY by -0.02 28-Mar-2022 Boston Toronto 210 AWAY by -0.68 28-Mar-2022 San Antonio Houston 234 AWAY by -6.90 28-Mar-2022 Golden State Memphis 218 HOME by 0.42 28-Mar-2022 Oklahoma City Portland 215 HOME by 2.06 29-Mar-2022 Milwaukee Philadelphia 222 HOME by 0.25 29-Mar-2022 Chicago Washington 226 AWAY by -3.33 29-Mar-2022 Detroit Brooklyn 219 HOME by 10.05 29-Mar-2022 LA Lakers Dallas 214 HOME by 10.43 29-Mar-2022 Utah LA Clippers 213 AWAY by -5.49 30-Mar-2022 Dallas Cleveland 201 HOME by 0.21 30-Mar-2022 Denver Indiana 225 AWAY by -2.71 30-Mar-2022 Orlando Washington 219 HOME by 5.43 30-Mar-2022 Miami Boston 202 HOME by 4.55 30-Mar-2022 Charlotte New York 227 HOME by 2.33 30-Mar-2022 Minnesota Toronto 227 HOME by 1.54 30-Mar-2022 Sacramento Houston 236 AWAY by -3.98 30-Mar-2022 Atlanta Oklahoma City 217 AWAY by -6.22 30-Mar-2022 Memphis San Antonio 233 AWAY by -3.11 30-Mar-2022 Phoenix Golden State 217 HOME by 0.25 30-Mar-2022 New Orleans Portland 217 AWAY by -3.91 31-Mar-2022 Philadelphia Detroit 213 AWAY by -7.38 31-Mar-2022 Milwaukee Brooklyn 228 AWAY by -0.78 31-Mar-2022 LA Clippers Chicago 219 HOME by 5.04 31-Mar-2022 LA Lakers Utah 228 HOME by 12.24 01-Apr-2022 Toronto Orlando 212 AWAY by -8.40 01-Apr-2022 Dallas Washington 215 AWAY by -5.67 01-Apr-2022 Indiana Boston 213 HOME by 9.73 01-Apr-2022 Sacramento Houston 236 AWAY by -3.98 01-Apr-2022 Phoenix Memphis 221 AWAY by -1.18 01-Apr-2022 LA Clippers Milwaukee 220 HOME by 6.91 01-Apr-2022 Detroit Oklahoma City 213 HOME by 2.11 01-Apr-2022 Portland San Antonio 228 HOME by 8.69 01-Apr-2022 Minnesota Denver 237 HOME by 0.75 01-Apr-2022 New Orleans LA Lakers 219 AWAY by -1.67 02-Apr-2022 Charlotte Philadelphia 229 HOME by 4.46 02-Apr-2022 Cleveland New York 206 AWAY by -0.72 02-Apr-2022 Brooklyn Atlanta 236 HOME by 1.98 02-Apr-2022 Miami Chicago 215 HOME by 0.53 02-Apr-2022 Utah Golden State 215 HOME by 2.44 03-Apr-2022 Washington Boston 209 HOME by 11.04 03-Apr-2022 Dallas Milwaukee 217 HOME by 1.37 03-Apr-2022 Denver LA Lakers 222 AWAY by -5.09 03-Apr-2022 Detroit Indiana 225 HOME by 6.95 03-Apr-2022 Philadelphia Cleveland 207 HOME by 2.29 03-Apr-2022 New York Orlando 208 AWAY by -5.04 03-Apr-2022 Minnesota Houston 243 AWAY by -10.34 03-Apr-2022 Phoenix Oklahoma City 215 AWAY by -13.19 03-Apr-2022 Portland San Antonio 228 HOME by 8.69 03-Apr-2022 Miami Toronto 203 HOME by 2.02 03-Apr-2022 Golden State Sacramento 220 AWAY by -7.46 03-Apr-2022 New Orleans LA Clippers 211 HOME by 1.38


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats