National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Thursday 01/20/22, 08:24 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Golden State 32 12 3.59 58.01 1 2 Phoenix 34 9 3.32 57.07 2 3 Utah 29 16 2.11 56.04 8 4 Miami 29 16 2.09 54.24 4 5 Chicago 28 15 2.04 53.57 3 6 Memphis 30 17 1.81 53.60 5 7 Dallas 26 19 1.80 54.48 7 8 Cleveland 27 19 1.76 54.57 9 9 Brooklyn 28 16 1.34 51.94 6 10 Milwaukee 28 19 1.34 53.54 11 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Philadelphia 26 18 0.94 51.45 10 12 Toronto 21 21 0.51 51.65 13 13 Denver 23 20 0.39 51.21 14 14 Minnesota 22 23 0.27 51.05 15 15 Boston 23 23 0.20 51.06 16 16 Charlotte 25 20 0.10 48.81 12 17 New York 22 23 -0.12 49.84 17 18 Atlanta 19 25 -0.46 49.69 20 19 Washington 23 22 -0.70 48.02 18 20 LA Clippers 22 24 -0.85 47.87 19 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 San Antonio 17 28 -0.87 50.09 26 22 Indiana 16 29 -0.95 49.41 24 23 Sacramento 18 29 -1.05 48.39 23 24 Portland 19 25 -1.45 45.76 22 25 LA Lakers 22 23 -1.64 44.85 21 26 New Orleans 16 28 -1.85 45.68 25 27 Oklahoma City 14 30 -2.95 42.92 27 28 Houston 14 32 -3.17 41.98 28 29 Detroit 11 33 -3.52 41.14 29 30 Orlando 8 38 -4.04 42.06 30

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 0.67 2 Atlantic 0.57 3 Central 0.13 4 Northwest -0.33 5 Southeast -0.46 6 Southeast -0.60

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 20-Jan-2022 New Orleans New York 210 HOME by 6.31 20-Jan-2022 Phoenix Dallas 206 AWAY by -0.43 20-Jan-2022 Indiana Golden State 210 HOME by 10.75 21-Jan-2022 Oklahoma City Charlotte 219 HOME by 8.05 21-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Orlando 211 AWAY by -0.64 21-Jan-2022 LA Clippers Philadelphia 209 HOME by 5.73 21-Jan-2022 Miami Atlanta 219 AWAY by -2.40 21-Jan-2022 Portland Boston 212 HOME by 7.45 21-Jan-2022 Chicago Milwaukee 223 HOME by 2.13 21-Jan-2022 Toronto Washington 221 AWAY by -1.47 21-Jan-2022 Brooklyn San Antonio 233 HOME by 0.30 21-Jan-2022 Memphis Denver 218 AWAY by -0.23 21-Jan-2022 Detroit Utah 223 HOME by 17.06 21-Jan-2022 Houston Golden State 219 HOME by 18.18 22-Jan-2022 Oklahoma City Cleveland 201 HOME by 13.80 22-Jan-2022 Sacramento Milwaukee 229 HOME by 7.31 22-Jan-2022 Indiana Phoenix 215 HOME by 9.81 23-Jan-2022 LA Clippers New York 207 HOME by 4.12 23-Jan-2022 Boston Washington 220 AWAY by -0.88 23-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Miami 213 HOME by 11.55 23-Jan-2022 Chicago Orlando 212 AWAY by -9.35 23-Jan-2022 Portland Toronto 214 HOME by 8.04 23-Jan-2022 Atlanta Charlotte 231 HOME by 1.28 23-Jan-2022 Philadelphia San Antonio 222 HOME by 0.80 23-Jan-2022 Memphis Dallas 211 HOME by 3.03 23-Jan-2022 Detroit Denver 212 HOME by 12.23 23-Jan-2022 Brooklyn Minnesota 221 HOME by 1.26 23-Jan-2022 Utah Golden State 214 HOME by 4.12 24-Jan-2022 New York Cleveland 198 HOME by 6.88 24-Jan-2022 Chicago Atlanta 226 AWAY by -1.72 24-Jan-2022 Indiana New Orleans 214 AWAY by -1.58 24-Jan-2022 Utah Phoenix 219 HOME by 3.18 25-Jan-2022 Denver Detroit 209 AWAY by -7.92 25-Jan-2022 Charlotte Toronto 225 HOME by 4.99 25-Jan-2022 LA Clippers Washington 216 HOME by 2.30 25-Jan-2022 Sacramento Boston 221 HOME by 4.83 25-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Brooklyn 221 HOME by 9.25 25-Jan-2022 San Antonio Houston 228 AWAY by -5.95 25-Jan-2022 Dallas Golden State 203 HOME by 5.69 25-Jan-2022 Minnesota Portland 232 AWAY by -3.13 26-Jan-2022 Milwaukee Cleveland 213 HOME by 3.18 26-Jan-2022 Charlotte Indiana 232 HOME by 2.76 26-Jan-2022 LA Clippers Orlando 204 AWAY by -3.66 26-Jan-2022 Sacramento Atlanta 232 HOME by 3.45 26-Jan-2022 Toronto Brooklyn 220 HOME by 2.45 26-Jan-2022 New York Miami 201 HOME by 6.56 26-Jan-2022 Memphis San Antonio 229 AWAY by -1.35 26-Jan-2022 Denver New Orleans 215 AWAY by -3.38 26-Jan-2022 Chicago Oklahoma City 211 AWAY by -8.49 26-Jan-2022 Dallas Portland 212 AWAY by -6.56 26-Jan-2022 Phoenix Utah 224 HOME by 1.13 27-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Philadelphia 216 HOME by 8.75 27-Jan-2022 Minnesota Golden State 224 HOME by 9.12 28-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Charlotte 228 HOME by 6.12 28-Jan-2022 Detroit Orlando 207 HOME by 3.07 28-Jan-2022 Boston Atlanta 223 HOME by 0.78 28-Jan-2022 Portland Houston 228 AWAY by -1.62 28-Jan-2022 Utah Memphis 218 AWAY by -0.29 28-Jan-2022 LA Clippers Miami 206 HOME by 8.53 28-Jan-2022 Indiana Oklahoma City 205 AWAY by -4.34 28-Jan-2022 Chicago San Antonio 229 AWAY by -1.32 28-Jan-2022 Minnesota Phoenix 229 HOME by 8.18 28-Jan-2022 New York Milwaukee 209 HOME by 5.86 29-Jan-2022 Boston New Orleans 216 AWAY by -3.22 29-Jan-2022 Indiana Dallas 204 HOME by 7.22 29-Jan-2022 Sacramento Philadelphia 223 HOME by 5.21 29-Jan-2022 Washington Memphis 217 HOME by 7.73 29-Jan-2022 Toronto Miami 212 HOME by 4.75 29-Jan-2022 Brooklyn Golden State 220 HOME by 8.22 30-Jan-2022 LA Lakers Atlanta 225 HOME by 6.99 30-Jan-2022 LA Clippers Charlotte 221 HOME by 3.09 30-Jan-2022 Portland Chicago 223 HOME by 9.96 30-Jan-2022 Cleveland Detroit 204 AWAY by -11.27 30-Jan-2022 Denver Milwaukee 218 HOME by 4.48 30-Jan-2022 Dallas Orlando 199 AWAY by -10.26 30-Jan-2022 Utah Minnesota 215 AWAY by -2.84 30-Jan-2022 San Antonio Phoenix 218 HOME by 9.13


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats