Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings


Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 2-3 points for basketball.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Overtimes make this tricky, and are why overtime games are recorded as "ties" because these often cause point totals to skew too high. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which doesn't sound like much but is enough to make a difference over an entire season of games.


Ratings last updated Monday 04/15/24 08:08 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Boston 62 14 6 3.43 58.59 1 2 Denver 57 24 1 2.61 55.78 3 3 Minnesota 55 22 5 2.40 54.77 2 4 Oklahoma City 54 24 4 2.27 55.20 4 5 Golden State 46 31 5 1.43 53.00 7 6 New Orleans 49 31 1 1.40 52.72 6 7 New York 50 31 2 1.39 53.67 10 8 LA Clippers 51 30 1 1.37 52.35 5 9 Phoenix 46 33 3 1.27 52.46 8 10 Philadelphia 46 33 3 1.16 53.56 14 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Milwaukee 47 30 4 0.97 52.70 13 12 Cleveland 45 33 4 0.87 52.79 19 13 Sacramento 41 35 6 0.76 52.10 17 14 Dallas 49 33 1 0.72 50.40 9 15 LA Lakers 43 34 5 0.71 51.19 11 16 Miami 44 36 2 0.62 51.59 18 17 Orlando 45 34 3 0.45 50.58 16 18 Indiana 46 35 1 0.37 49.75 12 19 Houston 39 36 7 -0.07 48.22 15 20 Chicago 32 39 11 -0.59 49.33 20 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Atlanta 32 45 6 -0.63 49.23 21 22 Brooklyn 31 46 5 -1.04 48.03 22 23 Memphis 26 52 4 -1.49 47.21 24 24 Utah 29 49 4 -1.50 46.44 23 25 Toronto 24 54 4 -1.88 47.14 26 26 San Antonio 19 58 5 -2.77 42.85 25 27 Washington 15 65 2 -3.37 43.69 29 28 Portland 16 58 8 -3.40 42.02 28 29 Charlotte 20 60 2 -3.46 41.55 27 30 Detroit 13 67 3 -4.00 41.09 30
Divisional rankings: Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 1.11 2 Atlantic 0.61 3 Northwest 0.48 4 Southeast -0.44 5 Central -0.47 6 Southeast -1.28
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 16-Apr-2024 LA Lakers New Orleans 230 HOME by 3.68 16-Apr-2024 Golden State Sacramento 239 HOME by 1.25 17-Apr-2024 Miami Philadelphia 213 HOME by 4.12 17-Apr-2024 Atlanta Chicago 227 HOME by 2.24
Current home field advantage is: 2.15 MAE for games to date: 10.48 These ratings fit to produce 0.63 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.30: 0.72 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.06. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.95.

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats