National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Tuesday 10/26/21, 11:19 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Phoenix 1 2 2.84 57.31 1 2 Utah 2 0 2.81 57.92 2 3 Milwaukee 3 1 2.38 55.98 3 4 LA Lakers 2 1 2.22 62.00 16 5 Brooklyn 2 2 2.11 54.88 4 6 Philadelphia 2 1 2.07 55.48 5 7 LA Clippers 1 2 1.82 55.92 9 8 Dallas 1 1 1.54 53.16 6 9 Atlanta 2 1 1.24 52.53 7 10 New York 2 1 1.09 52.01 10 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Denver 2 1 1.01 52.33 12 12 Miami 2 1 0.65 49.98 11 13 Memphis 2 1 0.63 51.76 13 14 Portland 1 2 0.37 51.55 15 15 Chicago 4 0 0.30 50.33 14 16 Boston 2 2 -0.10 50.32 18 17 Indiana 1 3 -0.50 49.39 20 18 Sacramento 1 2 -0.51 47.46 17 19 San Antonio 1 2 -0.66 48.97 22 20 Washington 2 1 -0.73 47.88 19 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Toronto 1 3 -0.88 50.01 25 22 New Orleans 1 3 -0.91 48.93 24 23 Golden State 2 1 -0.93 40.71 8 24 Charlotte 3 1 -0.97 46.83 21 25 Minnesota 2 1 -1.41 45.72 23 26 Detroit 0 3 -2.46 45.18 27 27 Cleveland 2 2 -2.69 42.41 26 28 Orlando 1 3 -3.33 40.95 28 29 Houston 1 2 -3.38 42.42 30 30 Oklahoma City 0 3 -3.62 39.66 29

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

When I get them working, divisional rankings will go here:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 1.09 2 Atlantic 0.86 3 Northwest -0.17 4 Southeast -0.56 5 Central -0.59 6 Southeast -0.63

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 26-Oct-2021 Philadelphia New York 210 AWAY by -1.52 26-Oct-2021 Golden State Oklahoma City 246 HOME by 0.90 26-Oct-2021 Houston Dallas 225 HOME by 12.69 26-Oct-2021 LA Lakers San Antonio 212 AWAY by -11.08 26-Oct-2021 Denver Utah 220 HOME by 7.54 27-Oct-2021 Charlotte Orlando 220 AWAY by -3.94 27-Oct-2021 Washington Boston 233 HOME by 4.38 27-Oct-2021 Miami Brooklyn 217 HOME by 6.85 27-Oct-2021 Atlanta New Orleans 227 AWAY by -1.65 27-Oct-2021 Indiana Toronto 229 HOME by 2.57 27-Oct-2021 Minnesota Milwaukee 237 HOME by 12.20 27-Oct-2021 LA Lakers Oklahoma City 212 AWAY by -20.39 27-Oct-2021 Sacramento Phoenix 225 HOME by 11.80 27-Oct-2021 Memphis Portland 236 HOME by 1.74 27-Oct-2021 Cleveland LA Clippers 210 HOME by 15.46 28-Oct-2021 Detroit Philadelphia 222 HOME by 12.25 28-Oct-2021 Atlanta Washington 239 AWAY by -2.70 28-Oct-2021 New York Chicago 205 HOME by 0.27 28-Oct-2021 Utah Houston 222 AWAY by -13.55 28-Oct-2021 San Antonio Dallas 219 HOME by 6.14 28-Oct-2021 Memphis Golden State 235 AWAY by -9.11 29-Oct-2021 Orlando Toronto 208 HOME by 11.02 29-Oct-2021 Indiana Brooklyn 236 HOME by 7.44 29-Oct-2021 Miami Charlotte 209 AWAY by -1.20 29-Oct-2021 Sacramento New Orleans 231 HOME by 3.42 29-Oct-2021 Dallas Denver 223 HOME by 1.11 29-Oct-2021 LA Clippers Portland 225 AWAY by -2.42 29-Oct-2021 Cleveland LA Lakers 225 HOME by 21.53 30-Oct-2021 Boston Washington 241 AWAY by -0.49 30-Oct-2021 Orlando Detroit 203 HOME by 6.18 30-Oct-2021 New York New Orleans 213 AWAY by -1.12 30-Oct-2021 Toronto Indiana 229 HOME by 1.32 30-Oct-2021 Atlanta Philadelphia 224 HOME by 4.89 30-Oct-2021 Utah Chicago 221 AWAY by -5.64 30-Oct-2021 Miami Memphis 210 HOME by 3.73 30-Oct-2021 San Antonio Milwaukee 227 HOME by 8.96 30-Oct-2021 Oklahoma City Golden State 221 HOME by 3.00 30-Oct-2021 Denver Minnesota 222 AWAY by -4.66 30-Oct-2021 Cleveland Phoenix 209 HOME by 16.85 31-Oct-2021 Sacramento Dallas 224 HOME by 7.65 31-Oct-2021 Portland Charlotte 223 AWAY by -2.77 31-Oct-2021 Utah Milwaukee 230 HOME by 0.01 31-Oct-2021 Detroit Brooklyn 223 HOME by 11.65 31-Oct-2021 Houston LA Lakers 243 HOME by 21.53 01-Nov-2021 Cleveland Charlotte 206 HOME by 6.37 01-Nov-2021 San Antonio Indiana 227 HOME by 2.37 01-Nov-2021 Portland Philadelphia 229 HOME by 5.87 01-Nov-2021 Washington Atlanta 230 HOME by 6.60 01-Nov-2021 Chicago Boston 224 HOME by 1.94 01-Nov-2021 Toronto New York 216 HOME by 3.94 01-Nov-2021 Denver Memphis 217 HOME by 1.38 01-Nov-2021 Orlando Minnesota 214 HOME by 6.72 01-Nov-2021 Oklahoma City LA Clippers 215 HOME by 18.21 02-Nov-2021 Milwaukee Detroit 220 AWAY by -8.85 02-Nov-2021 Miami Dallas 211 HOME by 5.13 02-Nov-2021 Sacramento Utah 226 HOME by 12.40 02-Nov-2021 New Orleans Phoenix 226 HOME by 10.32 02-Nov-2021 Houston LA Lakers 243 HOME by 21.53 03-Nov-2021 Portland Cleveland 224 AWAY by -7.20 03-Nov-2021 New York Indiana 213 AWAY by -0.67 03-Nov-2021 Boston Orlando 221 AWAY by -7.42 03-Nov-2021 Chicago Philadelphia 224 HOME by 7.10 03-Nov-2021 Toronto Washington 241 AWAY by -0.19 03-Nov-2021 Atlanta Brooklyn 225 HOME by 4.30 03-Nov-2021 Denver Memphis 217 HOME by 1.38 03-Nov-2021 LA Clippers Minnesota 221 AWAY by -8.25 03-Nov-2021 Dallas San Antonio 221 AWAY by -2.25 03-Nov-2021 Charlotte Golden State 229 AWAY by -4.17 03-Nov-2021 New Orleans Sacramento 237 HOME by 0.47 04-Nov-2021 Philadelphia Detroit 208 AWAY by -8.35 04-Nov-2021 Utah Atlanta 223 AWAY by -3.44 04-Nov-2021 Boston Miami 218 HOME by 1.61 04-Nov-2021 Houston Phoenix 226 HOME by 16.84 04-Nov-2021 Oklahoma City LA Lakers 231 HOME by 24.28 05-Nov-2021 Brooklyn Detroit 221 AWAY by -7.76 05-Nov-2021 San Antonio Orlando 218 AWAY by -6.07 05-Nov-2021 Memphis Washington 247 AWAY by -1.94 05-Nov-2021 New York Milwaukee 214 HOME by 5.92 05-Nov-2021 Cleveland Toronto 206 HOME by 9.55 05-Nov-2021 LA Clippers Minnesota 221 AWAY by -8.25 05-Nov-2021 New Orleans Golden State 232 AWAY by -6.28 05-Nov-2021 Indiana Portland 239 HOME by 4.11 05-Nov-2021 Charlotte Sacramento 234 HOME by 2.58


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats