National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Monday 10/12/20, 07:05 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Toronto 60 23 3.45 56.64 1 2 LA Lakers 68 24 3.29 55.99 2 3 Boston 58 31 2.72 56.76 4 4 LA Clippers 57 28 2.68 56.39 3 5 Milwaukee 61 22 2.25 57.00 7 6 Miami 58 36 1.81 53.46 6 7 Oklahoma City 48 31 1.76 52.62 5 8 Utah 47 32 1.26 54.23 12 9 Denver 55 37 0.91 51.67 9 10 Houston 48 36 0.83 52.62 14 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Phoenix 34 39 0.80 50.34 8 12 San Antonio 32 39 0.69 51.93 13 13 Indiana 45 32 0.50 50.26 10 14 New Orleans 30 42 0.44 52.68 15 15 Portland 37 43 0.30 49.71 11 16 Memphis 34 40 0.28 52.21 16 17 Dallas 44 37 0.25 52.34 17 18 Philadelphia 43 34 -0.07 50.92 18 19 Sacramento 32 40 -0.68 48.81 20 20 Orlando 34 44 -0.79 49.22 21 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Brooklyn 35 41 -0.87 47.77 19 22 New York 21 45 -1.71 45.32 22 23 Charlotte 22 43 -2.23 43.84 24 24 Chicago 22 43 -2.29 45.23 27 25 Atlanta 20 47 -2.34 43.06 23 26 Minnesota 19 45 -2.41 45.48 29 27 Washington 25 47 -2.54 44.41 28 28 Cleveland 19 46 -2.54 42.89 25 29 Golden State 15 50 -2.83 42.45 26 30 Detroit 20 46 -2.92 43.73 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)


When I get them working, divisional rankings will go here:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Atlantic 0.70 2 Pacific 0.65 3 Southeast 0.50 4 Northwest 0.36 5 Central -1.00 6 Southeast -1.22

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats