Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 2-3 points for basketball.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Overtimes make this tricky, and are why overtime games are recorded as "ties" because these often cause point totals to skew too high. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which doesn't sound like much but is enough to make a difference over an entire season of games.

Ratings last updated Thursday 04/18/24 08:26 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Boston                62 14  6     3.43    58.59    1
   2 Denver                57 24  1     2.61    55.78    3
   3 Minnesota             55 22  5     2.40    54.78    2
   4 Oklahoma City         54 24  4     2.27    55.20    4
   5 New York              50 31  2     1.39    53.67   10
   6 LA Clippers           51 30  1     1.38    52.35    5
   7 Golden State          46 32  5     1.36    52.86    7
   8 New Orleans           49 32  1     1.35    52.67    6
   9 Phoenix               46 33  3     1.27    52.47    8
  10 Philadelphia          47 33  3     1.19    53.54   13

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Milwaukee             47 30  4     0.96    52.71   14
  12 Cleveland             45 33  4     0.87    52.79   18
  13 Sacramento            42 35  6     0.83    52.24   16
  14 LA Lakers             44 34  5     0.76    51.23   11
  15 Dallas                49 33  1     0.73    50.40    9
  16 Miami                 44 37  2     0.58    51.60   19
  17 Orlando               45 34  3     0.45    50.58   17
  18 Indiana               46 35  1     0.38    49.76   12
  19 Houston               39 36  7    -0.06    48.23   15
  20 Chicago               33 39 11    -0.52    49.42   20

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Atlanta               32 46  6    -0.70    49.14   21
  22 Brooklyn              31 46  5    -1.03    48.03   22
  23 Memphis               26 52  4    -1.50    47.22   24
  24 Utah                  29 49  4    -1.50    46.44   23
  25 Toronto               24 54  4    -1.88    47.14   26
  26 San Antonio           19 58  5    -2.77    42.85   25
  27 Washington            15 65  2    -3.38    43.68   29
  28 Portland              16 58  8    -3.40    42.02   28
  29 Charlotte             20 60  2    -3.47    41.55   27
  30 Detroit               13 67  3    -4.00    41.09   30

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 Pacific                        1.12
   2 Atlantic                       0.62
   3 Northwest                      0.48
   4 Southeast                     -0.45
   5 Central                       -0.46
   6 Southeast                     -1.30

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
19-Apr-2024  Sacramento            New Orleans            226   HOME by   2.58
19-Apr-2024  Chicago               Miami                  216   HOME by   4.35

20-Apr-2024  Orlando               Cleveland              214   HOME by   4.37
20-Apr-2024  Phoenix               Minnesota              217   HOME by   4.47
20-Apr-2024  LA Lakers             Denver                 231   HOME by   6.71
20-Apr-2024  Philadelphia          New York               218   HOME by   2.29

21-Apr-2024  Dallas                LA Clippers            231   HOME by   4.10
21-Apr-2024  Indiana               Milwaukee              248   HOME by   5.11

Current home field advantage is:  2.16

MAE for games to date:  10.48

These ratings fit to produce 0.63 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.32:  0.72

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.99.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.94.