Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 23-May-2025 09:21 EST) Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 76 16 2 4.35 61.73 1 2 Boston 62 22 7 3.16 59.39 3 3 Cleveland 66 21 2 2.69 56.85 2 4 Minnesota 53 33 5 1.78 55.07 5 5 LA Clippers 50 32 6 1.59 54.26 6 6 Houston 51 33 4 1.58 54.31 7 7 Golden State 52 39 2 1.50 54.15 8 8 Indiana 51 32 8 1.45 53.21 4 9 New York 52 32 10 1.25 53.13 9 10 Denver 49 38 8 1.18 53.21 10 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Memphis 46 38 1 0.86 53.21 14 12 LA Lakers 51 34 2 0.72 50.81 11 13 Detroit 43 38 5 0.52 51.23 13 14 Milwaukee 46 37 4 0.52 50.68 12 15 Dallas 39 42 2 0.35 51.43 15 16 Orlando 43 42 1 0.04 50.24 16 17 Sacramento 36 39 7 -0.21 50.28 20 18 Miami 33 44 9 -0.51 49.31 22 19 Chicago 36 43 3 -0.55 47.91 19 20 Portland 35 41 4 -0.55 47.71 17 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Atlanta 38 40 5 -0.56 47.70 18 22 Phoenix 32 41 6 -0.59 48.29 21 23 San Antonio 32 47 2 -1.13 47.54 24 24 Toronto 29 45 5 -1.67 44.53 23 25 Philadelphia 22 54 5 -2.08 45.77 26 26 Brooklyn 26 51 4 -2.45 43.33 25 27 New Orleans 18 61 3 -2.96 42.12 27 28 Charlotte 18 60 3 -3.15 42.40 29 29 Utah 16 61 5 -3.21 41.96 28 30 Washington 18 63 2 -3.96 38.22 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 23-May-2025 09:21 EST) --- Atlantic CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston 12 5 4 62 22 7 3.16 ( 2) 59.39 50 17 3 -0.06 ( 21) 2 New York 14 5 3 52 32 10 1.25 ( 9) 53.13 38 27 7 -0.02 ( 19) 3 Toronto 8 6 1 29 45 5 -1.67 ( 24) 44.53 21 39 4 -0.08 ( 22) 4 Philadelphia 3 12 1 22 54 5 -2.08 ( 25) 45.77 19 42 4 0.01 ( 16) 5 Brooklyn 3 12 1 26 51 4 -2.45 ( 26) 43.33 23 39 3 0.02 ( 15) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Cleveland 13 7 1 66 21 2 2.69 ( 3) 56.85 53 14 1 -0.40 ( 29) 2 Indiana 16 7 2 51 32 8 1.45 ( 8) 53.21 35 25 6 -0.48 ( 30) 3 Detroit 5 9 2 43 38 5 0.52 ( 13) 51.23 38 29 3 -0.19 ( 26) 4 Milwaukee 7 10 3 46 37 4 0.52 ( 14) 50.68 39 27 1 -0.36 ( 27) 5 Chicago 4 12 0 36 43 3 -0.55 ( 19) 47.91 32 31 3 -0.36 ( 28) --- Southeast CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Orlando 13 3 1 43 42 1 0.04 ( 16) 50.24 30 39 0 0.43 ( 3) 2 Miami 9 6 2 33 44 9 -0.51 ( 18) 49.31 24 38 7 0.51 ( 1) 3 Atlanta 10 7 1 38 40 5 -0.56 ( 21) 47.70 28 33 4 0.36 ( 6) 4 Charlotte 1 15 0 18 60 3 -3.15 ( 28) 42.40 17 45 3 0.29 ( 8) 5 Washington 7 9 0 18 63 2 -3.96 ( 30) 38.22 11 54 2 0.36 ( 5) --- Northwest CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 17 5 2 76 16 2 4.35 ( 1) 61.73 59 11 0 0.01 ( 17) 2 Minnesota 9 6 2 53 33 5 1.78 ( 4) 55.07 44 27 3 0.09 ( 14) 3 Denver 10 11 2 49 38 8 1.18 ( 10) 53.21 39 27 6 0.10 ( 13) 4 Portland 6 9 1 35 41 4 -0.55 ( 20) 47.71 29 32 3 -0.14 ( 24) 5 Utah 2 13 1 16 61 5 -3.21 ( 29) 41.96 14 48 4 -0.10 ( 23) --- Pacific CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 LA Clippers 7 6 3 50 32 6 1.59 ( 5) 54.26 43 26 3 0.11 ( 12) 2 Golden State 5 10 1 52 39 2 1.50 ( 7) 54.15 47 29 1 0.24 ( 10) 3 LA Lakers 12 4 0 51 34 2 0.72 ( 12) 50.81 39 30 2 -0.03 ( 20) 4 Sacramento 4 10 2 36 39 7 -0.21 ( 17) 50.28 32 29 5 -0.17 ( 25) 5 Phoenix 8 6 2 32 41 6 -0.59 ( 22) 48.29 24 35 4 -0.01 ( 18) --- Southeast CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 12 3 0 51 33 4 1.58 ( 6) 54.31 39 30 4 0.48 ( 2) 2 Memphis 12 4 0 46 38 1 0.86 ( 11) 53.21 34 34 1 0.39 ( 4) 3 Dallas 8 9 0 39 42 2 0.35 ( 15) 51.43 31 33 2 0.26 ( 9) 4 San Antonio 5 11 0 32 47 2 -1.13 ( 23) 47.54 27 36 2 0.12 ( 11) 5 New Orleans 3 13 0 18 61 3 -2.96 ( 27) 42.12 15 48 3 0.30 ( 7)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 0.93 2 Northwest 0.71 3 Pacific 0.60 4 Southeast -0.26 5 Atlantic -0.36 6 Southeast -1.63
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 23-May-2025 Indiana New York 231 HOME by 1.92 24-May-2025 Oklahoma City Minnesota 218 AWAY by -4.65 25-May-2025 New York Indiana 229 HOME by 2.08 26-May-2025 Oklahoma City Minnesota 218 AWAY by -4.65
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.