Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 05-Oct-2025 08:34 EST) Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 0 0 4.14 63.10 1 2 Cleveland 0 0 2.71 59.66 3 3 Boston 0 0 2.50 57.46 2 4 Minnesota 1 0 2.33 57.75 5 5 Indiana 0 0 2.17 56.27 4 6 LA Clippers 0 0 1.79 56.80 7 7 Golden State 0 0 1.41 54.41 8 8 New York 2 0 1.33 53.65 6 9 Denver 0 1 1.16 53.73 9 10 Detroit 0 0 1.15 54.58 11 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Houston 0 0 1.12 53.55 10 12 Milwaukee 0 0 0.83 52.74 13 13 LA Lakers 0 1 0.76 52.17 12 14 Portland 0 0 0.63 52.17 14 15 Memphis 0 0 0.16 51.54 18 16 Sacramento 0 0 -0.10 49.51 15 17 Orlando 1 0 -0.13 49.36 16 18 Chicago 0 0 -0.19 49.18 17 19 Atlanta 0 0 -0.45 48.69 19 20 Phoenix 1 0 -0.57 47.97 21 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Toronto 0 0 -0.75 46.73 20 22 Miami 0 1 -1.21 47.53 24 23 San Antonio 0 0 -1.35 46.08 23 24 Dallas 0 0 -1.39 44.55 22 25 Brooklyn 0 0 -2.47 41.60 25 26 New Orleans 0 0 -2.87 40.27 26 27 Philadelphia 0 2 -2.97 41.78 30 28 Utah 0 0 -3.00 40.68 28 29 Charlotte 0 0 -3.33 38.86 29 30 Washington 0 0 -3.40 37.66 27
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 05-Oct-2025 08:34 EST) --- Atlantic CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston 0 0 0 0 2.50 ( 3) 57.46 0 0 -99.00 ( 2) 2 New York 2 0 2 0 1.33 ( 8) 53.65 0 0 -99.00 ( 20) 3 Toronto 0 0 0 0 -0.75 ( 21) 46.73 0 0 -99.00 ( 28) 4 Brooklyn 0 0 0 0 -2.47 ( 25) 41.60 0 0 -99.00 ( 18) 5 Philadelphia 0 2 0 2 -2.97 ( 27) 41.78 0 0 -99.00 ( 23) --- Central CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 2.71 ( 2) 59.66 0 0 -99.00 ( 5) 2 Indiana 0 0 0 0 2.17 ( 5) 56.27 0 0 -99.00 ( 11) 3 Detroit 0 0 0 0 1.15 ( 10) 54.58 0 0 -99.00 ( 8) 4 Milwaukee 0 0 0 0 0.83 ( 12) 52.74 0 0 -99.00 ( 16) 5 Chicago 0 0 0 0 -0.19 ( 18) 49.18 0 0 -99.00 ( 4) --- Southeast CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Orlando 1 0 1 0 -0.13 ( 17) 49.36 0 0 -99.00 ( 22) 2 Atlanta 0 0 0 0 -0.45 ( 19) 48.69 0 0 -99.00 ( 1) 3 Miami 0 1 0 1 -1.21 ( 22) 47.53 0 0 -99.00 ( 15) 4 Charlotte 0 0 0 0 -3.33 ( 29) 38.86 0 0 -99.00 ( 3) 5 Washington 0 0 0 0 -3.40 ( 30) 37.66 0 0 -99.00 ( 30) --- Northwest CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 0 0 0 0 4.14 ( 1) 63.10 0 0 -99.00 ( 21) 2 Minnesota 1 0 1 0 2.33 ( 4) 57.75 0 0 -99.00 ( 17) 3 Denver 0 1 0 1 1.16 ( 9) 53.73 0 0 -99.00 ( 7) 4 Portland 0 0 0 0 0.63 ( 14) 52.17 0 0 -99.00 ( 25) 5 Utah 0 0 0 0 -3.00 ( 28) 40.68 0 0 -99.00 ( 29) --- Pacific CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 LA Clippers 0 0 0 0 1.79 ( 6) 56.80 0 0 -99.00 ( 12) 2 Golden State 0 0 0 0 1.41 ( 7) 54.41 0 0 -99.00 ( 9) 3 LA Lakers 0 1 0 1 0.76 ( 13) 52.17 0 0 -99.00 ( 13) 4 Sacramento 0 0 0 0 -0.10 ( 16) 49.51 0 0 -99.00 ( 26) 5 Phoenix 1 0 1 0 -0.57 ( 20) 47.97 0 0 -99.00 ( 24) --- Southeast CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 0 0 0 0 1.12 ( 11) 53.55 0 0 -99.00 ( 10) 2 Memphis 0 0 0 0 0.16 ( 15) 51.54 0 0 -99.00 ( 14) 3 San Antonio 0 0 0 0 -1.35 ( 23) 46.08 0 0 -99.00 ( 27) 4 Dallas 0 0 0 0 -1.39 ( 24) 44.55 0 0 -99.00 ( 6) 5 New Orleans 0 0 0 0 -2.87 ( 26) 40.27 0 0 -99.00 ( 19)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 1.33 2 Northwest 1.05 3 Pacific 0.66 4 Atlantic -0.47 5 Southeast -0.87 6 Southeast -1.70
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 05-Oct-2025 Oklahoma City Charlotte 219 AWAY by -22.26 05-Oct-2025 LA Lakers Golden State 224 HOME by 4.21 06-Oct-2025 Milwaukee Miami 220 AWAY by -3.23 06-Oct-2025 Atlanta Houston 232 HOME by 6.84 06-Oct-2025 Detroit Memphis 241 AWAY by -1.07 06-Oct-2025 Oklahoma City Dallas 226 AWAY by -16.58 06-Oct-2025 Denver Toronto 229 AWAY by -5.02 07-Oct-2025 Chicago Cleveland 244 HOME by 12.45 07-Oct-2025 Indiana Minnesota 225 HOME by 3.45 08-Oct-2025 San Antonio Miami 226 HOME by 3.43 08-Oct-2025 Portland Golden State 220 HOME by 4.22 08-Oct-2025 Toronto Sacramento 226 HOME by 4.74 08-Oct-2025 Utah Houston 228 HOME by 14.84 08-Oct-2025 Boston Memphis 229 AWAY by -3.96 10-Oct-2025 Brooklyn Phoenix 217 Phoe by 6.38 10-Oct-2025 Sacramento Portland 224 HOME by 4.63 11-Oct-2025 Atlanta Memphis 252 HOME by 4.82 12-Oct-2025 Brooklyn Phoenix 217 Phoe by 6.38 12-Oct-2025 Golden State LA Lakers 218 AWAY by -0.26 13-Oct-2025 Miami Atlanta 226 HOME by 3.13 14-Oct-2025 Houston New Orleans 228 AWAY by -11.31 14-Oct-2025 Golden State Portland 219 AWAY by -0.27 15-Oct-2025 Dallas LA Lakers 224 LA L by 7.62 15-Oct-2025 LA Clippers Sacramento 226 AWAY by -5.32 16-Oct-2025 New Orleans Orlando 217 HOME by 11.06 16-Oct-2025 Houston Atlanta 241 AWAY by -2.89 16-Oct-2025 Portland Utah 231 AWAY by -9.51 17-Oct-2025 Memphis Miami 229 AWAY by -2.03 17-Oct-2025 Sacramento LA Lakers 223 HOME by 4.64
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.