Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate. 20 Jan 2026 update: The performance this year has been, well, woof. I noticed an error that was keeping way too many old games in the predictions file. Hopefully things will improve from here forward.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings Last updated 21-Jan-2026 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 33 8 3 4.18 61.41 1 2 Detroit 30 9 2 2.84 56.18 2 3 Houston 25 11 5 2.51 55.53 3 4 Boston 26 16 0 2.42 56.80 6 5 San Antonio 29 14 1 2.24 54.96 4 6 Phoenix 27 16 1 1.75 53.48 5 7 Minnesota 26 15 3 1.53 54.04 8 8 Denver 26 14 4 1.28 52.55 7 9 Golden State 24 19 2 1.19 53.14 9 10 New York 25 18 0 0.85 51.99 11 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Cleveland 24 18 2 0.67 51.58 13 12 Orlando 21 18 3 0.56 51.08 14 13 Toronto 24 17 4 0.54 50.77 12 14 Philadelphia 20 16 6 0.19 50.13 16 15 LA Lakers 26 16 0 0.15 48.52 10 16 Miami 22 21 1 -0.00 50.64 17 17 Portland 21 21 2 -0.01 48.97 15 18 LA Clippers 17 24 2 -0.21 49.71 18 19 Chicago 21 21 1 -0.64 47.67 19 20 Memphis 17 22 2 -0.71 48.84 21 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Charlotte 14 26 3 -0.75 50.78 24 22 Atlanta 19 25 1 -0.81 48.42 22 23 Dallas 16 24 4 -0.83 48.43 23 24 Milwaukee 17 23 2 -1.00 47.12 20 25 Brooklyn 12 28 1 -2.31 45.27 26 26 Utah 12 27 5 -2.39 43.23 25 27 New Orleans 9 32 4 -3.13 43.87 30 28 Indiana 10 33 1 -3.21 42.96 29 29 Sacramento 10 31 3 -3.25 41.35 27 30 Washington 10 30 2 -3.65 40.56 28
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 21-Jan-2026 07 AM ET) --- Atlantic CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston 6 4 0 26 16 0 2.42 ( 4) 56.80 20 12 0 -0.30 ( 26) 2 New York 5 3 0 25 18 0 0.85 ( 10) 51.99 20 15 0 -0.23 ( 22) 3 Toronto 3 8 1 24 17 4 0.54 ( 13) 50.77 21 9 3 -0.50 ( 27) 4 Philadelphia 8 3 1 20 16 6 0.19 ( 14) 50.13 12 13 5 -0.26 ( 23) 5 Brooklyn 3 7 0 12 28 1 -2.31 ( 25) 45.27 9 21 1 -0.28 ( 24) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Detroit 8 3 0 30 9 2 2.84 ( 2) 56.18 22 6 2 -0.12 ( 19) 2 Cleveland 7 3 0 24 18 2 0.67 ( 11) 51.58 17 15 2 0.31 ( 4) 3 Chicago 3 7 0 21 21 1 -0.64 ( 19) 47.67 18 14 1 -0.57 ( 29) 4 Milwaukee 5 4 0 17 23 2 -1.00 ( 24) 47.12 12 19 2 -0.29 ( 25) 5 Indiana 2 8 0 10 33 1 -3.21 ( 28) 42.96 8 25 1 0.09 ( 14) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Orlando 5 4 0 21 18 3 0.56 ( 12) 51.08 16 14 3 0.21 ( 8) 2 Miami 3 3 0 22 21 1 -0.00 ( 16) 50.64 19 18 1 0.37 ( 3) 3 Charlotte 4 4 0 14 26 3 -0.75 ( 21) 50.78 10 22 3 -0.06 ( 18) 4 Atlanta 4 3 0 19 25 1 -0.81 ( 22) 48.42 15 22 1 0.42 ( 2) 5 Washington 2 4 0 10 30 2 -3.65 ( 30) 40.56 8 26 2 0.17 ( 10) --- Northwest CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 6 2 1 33 8 3 4.18 ( 1) 61.41 27 6 2 -0.18 ( 20) 2 Minnesota 4 4 1 26 15 3 1.53 ( 7) 54.04 22 11 2 -0.59 ( 30) 3 Denver 3 1 1 26 14 4 1.28 ( 8) 52.55 23 13 3 -0.57 ( 28) 4 Portland 4 4 0 21 21 2 -0.01 ( 17) 48.97 17 17 2 0.16 ( 11) 5 Utah 1 7 1 12 27 5 -2.39 ( 26) 43.23 11 20 4 0.22 ( 7) --- Pacific CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Phoenix 8 4 0 27 16 1 1.75 ( 6) 53.48 19 12 1 0.17 ( 9) 2 Golden State 5 3 0 24 19 2 1.19 ( 9) 53.14 19 16 2 0.03 ( 15) 3 LA Lakers 4 5 0 26 16 0 0.15 ( 15) 48.52 22 11 0 -0.01 ( 17) 4 LA Clippers 4 4 0 17 24 2 -0.21 ( 18) 49.71 13 20 2 0.13 ( 12) 5 Sacramento 2 7 0 10 31 3 -3.25 ( 29) 41.35 8 24 3 0.61 ( 1) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 4 3 1 25 11 5 2.51 ( 3) 55.53 21 8 4 -0.00 ( 16) 2 San Antonio 6 2 1 29 14 1 2.24 ( 5) 54.96 23 12 0 0.30 ( 5) 3 Memphis 4 3 1 17 22 2 -0.71 ( 20) 48.84 13 19 1 0.10 ( 13) 4 Dallas 3 6 0 16 24 4 -0.83 ( 23) 48.43 13 18 4 -0.23 ( 21) 5 New Orleans 2 5 3 9 32 4 -3.13 ( 27) 43.87 7 27 1 0.25 ( 6)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Northwest 0.92 2 Atlantic 0.34 3 Southeast 0.01 4 Pacific -0.07 5 Central -0.27 6 Southeast -0.93
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Jan-2026 Cleveland Charlotte 243 HOME by 1.03 21-Jan-2026 Indiana Boston 226 HOME by 15.67 21-Jan-2026 Brooklyn New York 223 HOME by 8.56 21-Jan-2026 Atlanta Memphis 236 HOME by 2.26 21-Jan-2026 Detroit New Orleans 238 AWAY by -10.48 21-Jan-2026 Oklahoma City Milwaukee 226 AWAY by -12.46 21-Jan-2026 Toronto Sacramento 222 AWAY by -7.58 22-Jan-2026 Charlotte Orlando 231 HOME by 2.13 22-Jan-2026 Houston Philadelphia 223 AWAY by -3.57 22-Jan-2026 Denver Washington 244 AWAY by -10.16 22-Jan-2026 Golden State Dallas 225 AWAY by -2.88 22-Jan-2026 Chicago Minnesota 236 HOME by 8.20 22-Jan-2026 San Antonio Utah 248 AWAY by -9.90 22-Jan-2026 LA Lakers LA Clippers 219 HOME by 3.03 22-Jan-2026 Miami Portland 239 HOME by 0.16 23-Jan-2026 Houston Detroit 216 HOME by 2.49 23-Jan-2026 Phoenix Atlanta 230 AWAY by -3.23 23-Jan-2026 Boston Brooklyn 216 AWAY by -9.70 23-Jan-2026 Sacramento Cleveland 237 HOME by 12.06 23-Jan-2026 New Orleans Memphis 236 HOME by 6.80 23-Jan-2026 Denver Milwaukee 237 AWAY by -3.59 23-Jan-2026 Indiana Oklahoma City 223 HOME by 20.28 23-Jan-2026 Toronto Portland 229 HOME by 0.03 24-Jan-2026 New York Philadelphia 229 AWAY by -0.04 24-Jan-2026 Golden State Minnesota 224 HOME by 2.73 24-Jan-2026 Washington Charlotte 237 HOME by 12.06 24-Jan-2026 Cleveland Orlando 239 HOME by 1.33 24-Jan-2026 Boston Chicago 229 AWAY by -7.30 24-Jan-2026 LA Lakers Dallas 223 HOME by 1.74 24-Jan-2026 Miami Utah 255 AWAY by -5.58 25-Jan-2026 Sacramento Detroit 224 HOME by 16.66 25-Jan-2026 Denver Memphis 237 AWAY by -1.87 25-Jan-2026 Dallas Milwaukee 226 HOME by 0.53 25-Jan-2026 Toronto Oklahoma City 219 HOME by 12.48 25-Jan-2026 New Orleans San Antonio 234 HOME by 12.92 25-Jan-2026 Miami Phoenix 231 HOME by 4.68 25-Jan-2026 Brooklyn LA Clippers 218 HOME by 6.28 26-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Charlotte 233 HOME by 2.49 26-Jan-2026 Orlando Cleveland 233 HOME by 2.34 26-Jan-2026 Indiana Atlanta 234 HOME by 7.29 26-Jan-2026 Portland Boston 231 HOME by 9.67 26-Jan-2026 LA Lakers Chicago 229 HOME by 0.99 26-Jan-2026 Memphis Houston 227 HOME by 8.52 26-Jan-2026 Golden State Minnesota 224 HOME by 2.73
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
In 2025-26, about mid-January I noticed that this year's predictions were doing terribly (61%, compared to most of the other computers at 65-66%). So I did what any self-respecting programmer would do, I adjusted the formula in hopes of improving accuracy. I'll report back with the results. One of the big factors is how much recent information do you keep when trying to predict a team's performance. A couple weeks? A month? The whole season?
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.