Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings
Presented here are computer ratings and rankings for NBA and, hopefully, a system that can come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The Predictions tab includes games scheduled for the next few days.
To calculate a hypothetical margin of victory for any other matchup, just use the "Points" column. The home advantage fluctuates based on games played, but is consistently about 2.5 to 3 points.
For the last couple of years, all overtime games are recorded as "ties" because this helps the score predictions be slightly more accurate. On 22 Nov 25, I noticed a couple weeks where my upstream source had totaled scores incorrectly, but that should be fixed now.
If you need original text files for anything below, check the Description tab. Let me know if you see any issues. Thanks and glad you're here!
NBA Computer Ratings Last updated 31-Dec-2025 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Oklahoma City 26 5 2 3.66 60.40 1 2 Houston 19 6 5 3.21 58.32 2 3 New York 24 9 0 2.51 55.65 3 4 San Antonio 22 10 1 2.34 55.46 5 5 Boston 20 12 0 2.28 56.43 6 6 Detroit 24 7 2 2.24 54.68 4 7 Denver 20 9 3 2.12 55.98 7 8 Orlando 17 14 2 1.60 54.17 8 9 Minnesota 20 10 3 1.34 53.26 9 10 Phoenix 19 12 1 1.07 52.09 10 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Golden State 16 15 2 0.68 52.43 13 12 Toronto 19 13 2 0.59 50.49 11 13 Cleveland 18 14 2 0.40 51.18 14 14 Miami 17 15 1 0.32 52.20 16 15 LA Lakers 20 11 0 0.02 47.96 12 16 Philadelphia 14 13 4 -0.22 48.93 15 17 Atlanta 14 19 1 -0.82 48.15 19 18 Milwaukee 13 18 2 -0.84 47.29 18 19 Memphis 14 17 2 -0.88 48.27 21 20 LA Clippers 10 21 1 -0.90 49.71 25 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Chicago 15 16 1 -0.96 45.79 17 22 Portland 13 18 2 -1.02 47.48 20 23 Dallas 10 20 4 -1.17 47.98 22 24 Brooklyn 10 20 0 -1.44 46.85 24 25 Charlotte 9 20 3 -1.53 47.47 26 26 Utah 9 19 4 -1.93 44.20 23 27 New Orleans 7 23 4 -2.56 44.57 28 28 Washington 7 22 2 -3.32 40.20 27 29 Sacramento 6 24 3 -3.39 40.62 29 30 Indiana 6 26 1 -3.40 41.79 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NBA Computer Ratings (Last updated 31-Dec-2025 07 AM ET) --- Atlantic CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 New York 5 2 0 24 9 0 2.51 ( 3) 55.65 19 7 0 -0.28 ( 23) 2 Boston 5 4 0 20 12 0 2.28 ( 5) 56.43 15 8 0 -0.27 ( 22) 3 Toronto 3 6 0 19 13 2 0.59 ( 12) 50.49 16 7 2 -0.62 ( 28) 4 Philadelphia 6 3 0 14 13 4 -0.22 ( 16) 48.93 8 10 4 -0.32 ( 25) 5 Brooklyn 3 7 0 10 20 0 -1.44 ( 24) 46.85 7 13 0 -0.27 ( 21) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Detroit 5 3 0 24 7 2 2.24 ( 6) 54.68 19 4 2 -0.36 ( 26) 2 Cleveland 6 2 0 18 14 2 0.40 ( 13) 51.18 12 12 2 0.21 ( 10) 3 Milwaukee 5 4 0 13 18 2 -0.84 ( 18) 47.29 8 14 2 -0.27 ( 20) 4 Chicago 3 6 0 15 16 1 -0.96 ( 21) 45.79 12 10 1 -0.31 ( 24) 5 Indiana 2 6 0 6 26 1 -3.40 ( 30) 41.79 4 20 1 0.11 ( 12) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Orlando 5 3 0 17 14 2 1.60 ( 8) 54.17 12 11 2 0.98 ( 1) 2 Miami 3 3 0 17 15 1 0.32 ( 14) 52.20 14 12 1 0.28 ( 7) 3 Atlanta 4 3 0 14 19 1 -0.82 ( 17) 48.15 10 16 1 0.32 ( 6) 4 Charlotte 4 4 0 9 20 3 -1.53 ( 25) 47.47 5 16 3 0.03 ( 17) 5 Washington 1 4 0 7 22 2 -3.32 ( 28) 40.20 6 18 2 0.38 ( 5) --- Northwest CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Oklahoma City 5 2 0 26 5 2 3.66 ( 1) 60.40 21 3 2 -0.67 ( 29) 2 Denver 3 1 1 20 9 3 2.12 ( 7) 55.98 17 8 2 -0.50 ( 27) 3 Minnesota 4 3 1 20 10 3 1.34 ( 9) 53.26 16 7 2 -0.88 ( 30) 4 Portland 3 3 0 13 18 2 -1.02 ( 22) 47.48 10 15 2 0.05 ( 15) 5 Utah 0 6 0 9 19 4 -1.93 ( 26) 44.20 9 13 4 0.23 ( 9) --- Pacific CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Phoenix 7 4 0 19 12 1 1.07 ( 10) 52.09 12 8 1 0.15 ( 11) 2 Golden State 4 2 0 16 15 2 0.68 ( 11) 52.43 12 13 2 0.11 ( 13) 3 LA Lakers 4 4 0 20 11 0 0.02 ( 15) 47.96 16 7 0 0.05 ( 14) 4 LA Clippers 3 4 0 10 21 1 -0.90 ( 20) 49.71 7 17 1 0.38 ( 4) 5 Sacramento 1 5 0 6 24 3 -3.39 ( 29) 40.62 5 19 3 0.79 ( 2) --- Southeast CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 2 2 1 19 6 5 3.21 ( 2) 58.32 17 4 4 -0.08 ( 18) 2 San Antonio 6 0 1 22 10 1 2.34 ( 4) 55.46 16 10 0 0.26 ( 8) 3 Memphis 3 3 1 14 17 2 -0.88 ( 19) 48.27 11 14 1 -0.18 ( 19) 4 Dallas 2 6 0 10 20 4 -1.17 ( 23) 47.98 8 14 4 0.05 ( 16) 5 New Orleans 2 4 3 7 23 4 -2.56 ( 27) 44.57 5 19 1 0.48 ( 3)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Northwest 0.83 2 Atlantic 0.74 3 Southeast 0.19 4 Pacific -0.50 5 Central -0.51 6 Southeast -0.75
These predictions already include home advantage, if necessary.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 31-Dec-2025 Golden State Charlotte 231 AWAY by -3.31 31-Dec-2025 Minnesota Atlanta 238 AWAY by -3.47 31-Dec-2025 Orlando Indiana 228 AWAY by -10.74 31-Dec-2025 Phoenix Cleveland 227 HOME by 0.74 31-Dec-2025 New Orleans Chicago 236 HOME by 2.87 31-Dec-2025 New York San Antonio 231 HOME by 1.46 31-Dec-2025 Denver Toronto 233 AWAY by -3.84 31-Dec-2025 Washington Milwaukee 233 HOME by 8.74 31-Dec-2025 Portland Oklahoma City 231 HOME by 14.58 01-Jan-2026 Houston Brooklyn 218 AWAY by -9.82 01-Jan-2026 Miami Detroit 232 HOME by 4.13 01-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Dallas 226 HOME by 0.71 01-Jan-2026 Boston Sacramento 222 AWAY by -14.16 01-Jan-2026 Utah LA Clippers 231 HOME by 7.17 02-Jan-2026 San Antonio Indiana 230 AWAY by -12.02 02-Jan-2026 Brooklyn Washington 238 AWAY by -4.99 02-Jan-2026 Denver Cleveland 239 AWAY by -3.14 02-Jan-2026 Atlanta New York 235 HOME by 9.16 02-Jan-2026 Orlando Chicago 232 AWAY by -6.73 02-Jan-2026 Charlotte Milwaukee 233 HOME by 1.47 02-Jan-2026 Portland New Orleans 245 AWAY by -1.26 02-Jan-2026 Sacramento Phoenix 227 HOME by 13.12 02-Jan-2026 Oklahoma City Golden State 221 AWAY by -6.32 02-Jan-2026 Memphis LA Lakers 237 HOME by 1.35 03-Jan-2026 Minnesota Miami 238 HOME by 0.59 03-Jan-2026 Philadelphia New York 229 HOME by 8.37 03-Jan-2026 Atlanta Toronto 233 HOME by 3.99 03-Jan-2026 Charlotte Chicago 234 AWAY by -0.04 03-Jan-2026 Portland San Antonio 236 HOME by 9.63 03-Jan-2026 Houston Dallas 223 AWAY by -8.68 03-Jan-2026 Utah Golden State 235 HOME by 9.88 03-Jan-2026 Boston LA Clippers 216 AWAY by -5.06 04-Jan-2026 Detroit Cleveland 232 AWAY by -1.85 04-Jan-2026 Indiana Orlando 226 HOME by 14.04 04-Jan-2026 Denver Brooklyn 227 AWAY by -7.48 04-Jan-2026 New Orleans Miami 241 HOME by 9.29 04-Jan-2026 Minnesota Washington 242 AWAY by -11.41 04-Jan-2026 Oklahoma City Phoenix 220 AWAY by -6.67 04-Jan-2026 Milwaukee Sacramento 222 AWAY by -5.02 04-Jan-2026 Memphis LA Lakers 237 HOME by 1.35 05-Jan-2026 New York Detroit 227 HOME by 0.68 05-Jan-2026 Chicago Boston 242 HOME by 12.29 05-Jan-2026 Atlanta Toronto 233 HOME by 3.99 05-Jan-2026 Phoenix Houston 225 HOME by 7.88 05-Jan-2026 Charlotte Oklahoma City 227 HOME by 14.58 05-Jan-2026 Denver Philadelphia 234 AWAY by -5.40 05-Jan-2026 Golden State LA Clippers 218 AWAY by -1.07 05-Jan-2026 Utah Portland 244 HOME by 4.93
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, shooting percentages, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
In 2023-24, my NBA ratings predicted 64.2% of the correct game winners. By comparison, Jeff Sagarin's method got 65.8% correct. Over a season of about 850 games, that is a 10-15 game difference. I'll let you decide how much difference there is for 10-15 games out of 850. (I suspect that most of that was early in the season, when it's more difficult to know what a team's true strength is going to be. Jeff's preseason algorithm is probably more sophisticated than mine.)
That said, the Vegas line got 68.0% of winners. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Ratings Description
This rating system uses a formula developed by the owners of talismanred.com. It is explained in more detail over on the college football page, but the bottom line is that it can be used both for ranking teams as well as predicting future scores. In some circles, you'll see that referred to as both "retrodictive" and "predictive."
About the Author
I am a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, with a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. For my day job, in addition to teaching lots of courses I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting the weather using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.