Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Reminder: games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.

Ratings last updated Monday 06/24/24 07:56 PM ET

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Florida               65 35  7     2.87    50.76    1
   2 Carolina              56 28 12     2.73    50.70    2
   3 Edmonton              61 41  9     2.62    50.89    4
   4 NY Rangers            61 30  9     2.49    50.58    3
   5 Dallas                58 36  8     2.22    50.68    5
   6 Colorado              54 35  9     1.77    50.62    8
   7 Vancouver             57 36  9     1.66    50.40    7
   8 Winnipeg              53 33  6     1.58    50.31    6
   9 Boston                49 39 10     1.42    50.71   12
  10 Las Vegas             44 39  7     1.14    50.64   14

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Los Angeles           43 37  9     1.03    50.51   13
  12 Toronto               44 39  9     0.98    50.43   11
  13 Tampa Bay             43 41  5     0.75    50.15    9
  14 Nashville             46 39  7     0.55    50.06   10
  15 New Jersey            38 42  2     0.12    50.16   20
  16 Minnesota             36 40  6    -0.04    49.99   17
  17 Calgary               38 40  4    -0.11    49.96   18
  18 Detroit               38 40  4    -0.12    49.90   15
  19 NY Islanders          38 43  9    -0.24    49.98   22
  20 St Louis              38 37  7    -0.37    49.78   16

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Pittsburgh            36 41  5    -0.52    49.92   24
  22 Buffalo               37 42  3    -0.56    49.78   21
  23 Seattle               31 44  7    -0.64    50.00   26
  24 Ottawa                32 45  5    -0.75    49.87   25
  25 Washington            36 41 11    -0.96    49.47   19
  26 Philadelphia          34 41  7    -1.14    49.49   23
  27 Arizona               34 46  2    -1.30    49.64   27
  28 Montreal              26 44 12    -1.89    49.48   28
  29 Columbus              24 53  5    -2.94    49.13   30
  30 Anaheim               26 53  3    -3.39    48.84   29
  31 Chicago               22 58  2    -4.06    48.75   31
  32 San Jose              18 58  6    -4.91    48.43   32

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 East                           0.34
   2 Central                        0.04
   3 North                         -0.06
   4 West                          -0.33

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
24-Jun-2024  Edmonton              Florida                 6.0  HOME by   0.14

Current home field advantage is:  0.26

MAE for games to date:  2.05

These ratings fit to produce 0.58 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.52:  0.64

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.72.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.92.