National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

New important note for 2021-22: games that are still tied after overtime will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.


Ratings last updated Thursday 01/20/22, 08:23 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Florida 25 11 4 3.33 51.01 1 2 Carolina 26 11 0 3.11 51.00 2 3 Toronto 24 12 2 2.61 50.81 4 4 Colorado 24 11 3 2.54 50.82 6 5 Tampa Bay 26 11 5 2.15 50.50 3 6 NY Rangers 25 13 3 1.89 50.38 5 7 Nashville 24 16 2 1.83 50.49 7 8 St Louis 21 14 4 1.81 50.66 10 9 Pittsburgh 23 11 5 1.79 50.51 8 10 Minnesota 18 11 7 1.65 50.46 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Boston 21 13 2 1.06 50.26 11 12 Las Vegas 20 17 4 0.67 50.26 12 13 Calgary 16 17 2 0.61 50.50 18 14 Washington 20 16 4 0.58 50.30 14 15 Edmonton 17 16 2 0.33 50.16 16 16 Dallas 16 18 3 0.01 49.93 13 17 Los Angeles 18 19 4 -0.07 50.02 17 18 San Jose 21 18 2 -0.23 49.81 15 19 Winnipeg 16 16 4 -0.24 50.04 20 20 NY Islanders 12 17 4 -0.55 49.83 19 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Columbus 14 19 4 -0.90 49.65 21 22 New Jersey 13 20 5 -1.11 49.63 22 23 Vancouver 15 20 5 -1.19 49.63 23 24 Anaheim 16 20 7 -1.20 49.76 26 25 Chicago 13 23 4 -1.61 49.50 25 26 Detroit 17 22 2 -1.70 49.40 24 27 Philadelphia 13 22 4 -2.07 49.31 28 28 Ottawa 10 22 1 -2.09 49.40 29 29 Arizona 10 24 4 -2.42 49.07 27 30 Seattle 10 26 2 -3.14 49.10 30 31 Buffalo 11 26 3 -3.35 49.06 31 32 Montreal 7 30 1 -4.12 48.72 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 0.45 2 North 0.34 3 East -0.26 4 West -0.53

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 20-Jan-2022 Washington Boston 5.4 HOME by 0.34 20-Jan-2022 Dallas Buffalo 5.0 AWAY by -0.50 20-Jan-2022 Columbus Philadelphia 7.2 HOME by 0.03 20-Jan-2022 Ottawa Pittsburgh 6.0 HOME by 1.48 20-Jan-2022 Winnipeg Nashville 5.1 HOME by 0.83 20-Jan-2022 Florida Edmonton 6.8 AWAY by -0.47 20-Jan-2022 Colorado Los Angeles 6.7 AWAY by -0.42 20-Jan-2022 San Jose Seattle 6.2 AWAY by -0.34 20-Jan-2022 Montreal Las Vegas 6.6 HOME by 1.92 21-Jan-2022 NY Rangers Carolina 5.6 HOME by 1.00 21-Jan-2022 Pittsburgh Columbus 6.4 AWAY by -0.48 21-Jan-2022 Dallas Detroit 5.1 AWAY by -0.16 21-Jan-2022 Arizona NY Islanders 3.9 HOME by 1.14 21-Jan-2022 Minnesota Chicago 5.8 AWAY by -0.59 21-Jan-2022 Tampa Bay Anaheim 6.2 AWAY by -0.37 21-Jan-2022 St Louis Seattle 6.4 AWAY by -1.19 21-Jan-2022 Florida Vancouver 5.0 AWAY by -1.00 22-Jan-2022 Philadelphia Buffalo 5.1 HOME by 0.12 22-Jan-2022 Winnipeg Boston 5.5 HOME by 0.60 22-Jan-2022 Montreal Colorado 7.7 HOME by 2.48 22-Jan-2022 Carolina New Jersey 6.1 AWAY by -1.00 22-Jan-2022 Arizona NY Rangers 4.6 HOME by 1.68 22-Jan-2022 NY Islanders Toronto 4.6 HOME by 1.35 22-Jan-2022 Ottawa Washington 6.7 HOME by 1.27 22-Jan-2022 Detroit Nashville 5.7 HOME by 1.47 22-Jan-2022 Chicago Minnesota 6.9 HOME by 1.34 22-Jan-2022 Calgary Edmonton 6.5 HOME by 0.04 22-Jan-2022 Tampa Bay San Jose 6.4 AWAY by -0.31 23-Jan-2022 Winnipeg Pittsburgh 5.4 HOME by 0.84 23-Jan-2022 Ottawa Columbus 6.9 HOME by 0.62 23-Jan-2022 Los Angeles New Jersey 5.3 AWAY by -0.02 23-Jan-2022 Florida Seattle 6.5 AWAY by -1.53 23-Jan-2022 St Louis Vancouver 4.9 AWAY by -0.66 24-Jan-2022 Anaheim Boston 5.6 HOME by 0.87 24-Jan-2022 Los Angeles NY Rangers 4.5 HOME by 0.73 24-Jan-2022 Dallas Philadelphia 5.7 AWAY by -0.25 24-Jan-2022 Las Vegas Washington 7.1 HOME by 0.41 24-Jan-2022 Montreal Minnesota 7.3 HOME by 2.12 24-Jan-2022 St Louis Calgary 5.4 HOME by 0.21 24-Jan-2022 Chicago Colorado 7.4 HOME by 1.70 25-Jan-2022 Buffalo Ottawa 6.5 HOME by 0.72 25-Jan-2022 Las Vegas Carolina 6.5 HOME by 1.12 25-Jan-2022 Dallas New Jersey 5.4 HOME by 0.07 25-Jan-2022 Arizona Pittsburgh 5.1 HOME by 1.81 25-Jan-2022 Philadelphia NY Islanders 3.9 HOME by 0.90 25-Jan-2022 Florida Winnipeg 6.3 AWAY by -0.59 25-Jan-2022 Nashville Seattle 6.4 AWAY by -1.02 25-Jan-2022 Edmonton Vancouver 5.1 AWAY by -0.16 26-Jan-2022 Calgary Columbus 6.6 AWAY by -0.47 26-Jan-2022 Anaheim Toronto 5.2 HOME by 1.42 26-Jan-2022 San Jose Washington 6.3 HOME by 0.86 26-Jan-2022 Chicago Detroit 5.7 HOME by 0.28 26-Jan-2022 Boston Colorado 7.1 HOME by 0.93 27-Jan-2022 NY Rangers Columbus 6.5 AWAY by -0.35 27-Jan-2022 Las Vegas Florida 8.2 HOME by 1.12 27-Jan-2022 Anaheim Montreal 5.0 AWAY by -0.67 27-Jan-2022 Los Angeles NY Islanders 3.8 HOME by 0.18 27-Jan-2022 Carolina Ottawa 6.2 AWAY by -1.23 27-Jan-2022 Seattle Pittsburgh 5.6 HOME by 1.78 27-Jan-2022 New Jersey Tampa Bay 6.6 HOME by 1.24 27-Jan-2022 Calgary St Louis 6.2 HOME by 0.54 27-Jan-2022 Vancouver Winnipeg 5.9 HOME by 0.78 27-Jan-2022 Nashville Edmonton 6.7 HOME by 0.04 28-Jan-2022 Minnesota NY Rangers 5.4 HOME by 0.29 28-Jan-2022 Detroit Pittsburgh 6.0 HOME by 1.48 28-Jan-2022 Colorado Chicago 6.6 AWAY by -0.95 28-Jan-2022 Boston Arizona 5.8 AWAY by -0.82 28-Jan-2022 Washington Dallas 5.6 HOME by 0.01

Current home field advantage is: 0.37 MAE for games to date: 1.97 These ratings fit to produce 0.60 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.75: 0.70 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.73. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 1.11.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats