Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
In the Predictions section, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
(Everything is here on a single, scrollable page now. This reduces the need for the Javascript tabs, which were nice but unneeded. Scrapers should not be impacted. Links to original text files are in the Description section.)
Ratings
Talisman Red Computer Ratings
Through Games Of Tuesday 06 October 2026
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank Team W L Rating BCS Points Conf.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Colorado 2 0 3.76 2 11.19 Central
2 Carolina 2 2 3.74 1 10.91 North
3 Buffalo 2 1 2.18 3 10.53 East
4 Minnesota 2 1 2.03 6 10.64 Central
5 Tampa Bay 2 1 1.99 4 10.57 East
6 Las Vegas 3 1 1.98 5 10.61 West
7 Ottawa 2 1 1.59 9 10.52 East
8 Montreal 1 2 1.56 7 10.39 East
9 Utah 3 1 1.55 10 10.57 Central
10 Washington 1 1 1.52 8 10.42 North
11 Pittsburgh 2 1 1.30 11 10.54 North
12 NY Rangers 4 1 0.86 15 10.42 North
13 Dallas 1 2 0.79 13 10.31 Central
14 Boston 2 2 0.57 12 10.13 East
15 Edmonton 2 1 0.16 16 10.07 West
16 Anaheim 2 0 -0.13 14 9.80 West
17 Columbus 1 1 -0.16 21 10.06 North
18 St Louis 1 2 -0.27 17 9.91 Central
19 NY Islanders 1 2 -0.43 22 9.91 North
20 Florida 2 2 -0.60 20 9.76 East
21 Winnipeg 2 1 -0.64 19 9.72 Central
22 Detroit 1 2 -0.81 24 9.78 East
23 Nashville 1 2 -1.11 26 9.75 Central
24 Philadelphia 0 4 -1.14 25 9.72 North
25 New Jersey 1 2 -1.32 23 9.42 North
26 San Jose 2 1 -1.37 18 9.28 West
27 Seattle 2 2 -1.62 28 9.64 West
28 Toronto 2 2 -1.89 27 9.47 East
29 Los Angeles 0 3 -2.51 29 9.42 West
30 Chicago 1 3 -3.43 30 8.99 Central
31 Vancouver 2 2 -4.05 32 8.87 West
32 Calgary 0 3 -4.12 31 8.69 West
Explanations:
These ratings use a method I developed many years ago, which
is a blend of two separate components: one for predicting scores
and another that considers only winning and losing. The two
components are then combined into an overall rating, which is
how the teams are sorted.
For a score-agnostic ranking, use the "BCS" column. And if
you want to predict margin of victory in a hypothetical matchup,
just use the "Points" column. Add in home advantage, if
appropriate.
Home advantage in this set of rankings: 0.16
Predictions
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES
Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction
--------- ------------------------ ------------------------ ----- --------------
07-Oct-26 Edmonton Anaheim 8.4 AWAY by -0.11
07-Oct-26 Colorado Winnipeg 5.7 AWAY by -1.31
07-Oct-26 Pittsburgh Washington 6.7 HOME by 0.04
08-Oct-26 Dallas Buffalo 5.9 HOME by 0.38
08-Oct-26 Philadelphia Ottawa 5.4 HOME by 0.95
08-Oct-26 Toronto Las Vegas 6.7 HOME by 1.30
08-Oct-26 Colorado Calgary 5.3 AWAY by -2.34
08-Oct-26 San Jose St Louis 6.2 HOME by 0.78
08-Oct-26 Chicago NY Islanders 5.6 HOME by 1.08
08-Oct-26 Vancouver Carolina 7.2 HOME by 2.19
08-Oct-26 Minnesota Tampa Bay 6.2 HOME by 0.09
08-Oct-26 Nashville Montreal 6.3 HOME by 0.80
08-Oct-26 Utah Boston 5.6 AWAY by -0.28
09-Oct-26 Pittsburgh Columbus 6.9 AWAY by -0.33
09-Oct-26 Anaheim Winnipeg 6.3 HOME by 0.08
09-Oct-26 NY Rangers Washington 5.5 HOME by 0.16
09-Oct-26 Seattle Detroit 5.7 HOME by 0.30
10-Oct-26 Anaheim Calgary 5.8 AWAY by -0.95
10-Oct-26 Toronto Colorado 7.3 HOME by 1.88
10-Oct-26 Dallas Pittsburgh 6.9 HOME by 0.39
10-Oct-26 Philadelphia Boston 5.1 HOME by 0.57
10-Oct-26 Los Angeles Las Vegas 6.2 HOME by 1.35
10-Oct-26 Tampa Bay NY Islanders 5.9 AWAY by -0.50
10-Oct-26 Columbus St Louis 5.3 HOME by 0.01
10-Oct-26 Carolina Chicago 6.0 AWAY by -1.76
10-Oct-26 Nashville Ottawa 6.0 HOME by 0.92
10-Oct-26 Detroit Montreal 5.7 HOME by 0.78
10-Oct-26 Utah Buffalo 6.3 HOME by 0.12
10-Oct-26 Minnesota Florida 6.6 AWAY by -0.72
10-Oct-26 Edmonton San Jose 8.4 AWAY by -0.63
10-Oct-26 Vancouver New Jersey 7.2 HOME by 0.70
11-Oct-26 Vancouver NY Rangers 6.9 HOME by 1.70
11-Oct-26 Carolina Philadelphia 5.1 AWAY by -1.03
11-Oct-26 Seattle Washington 5.5 HOME by 0.94
12-Oct-26 Florida Buffalo 5.7 HOME by 0.92
12-Oct-26 Las Vegas Minnesota 5.6 HOME by 0.19
12-Oct-26 Ottawa New Jersey 6.3 AWAY by -0.94
Ratings by Division
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
Talisman Red's Hockey Ratings
Through Games of Tuesday 06 October 2026
Standings by Conference (NHL)
Teams are sorted by their overall ranking and not by their
winning percentage, in or out of conference.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conf Rank 1 East Average 0.57
Rank All Team CW CL W L Rating Non-Conf SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 3 Buffalo 0 0 2 1 2.18 -0.11 24
2 5 Tampa Bay 0 0 2 1 1.99 -0.06 19
3 7 Ottawa 2 1 2 1 1.59 0.17 11
4 8 Montreal 1 0 1 2 1.56 0.35 9
5 14 Boston 0 1 2 2 0.57 -0.04 15
6 20 Florida 0 0 2 2 -0.60 -0.08 21
7 22 Detroit 1 0 1 2 -0.81 -0.08 20
8 28 Toronto 0 2 2 2 -1.89 -0.11 25
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conf Rank 2 North Average 0.55
Rank All Team CW CL W L Rating Non-Conf SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 2 Carolina 1 1 2 2 3.74 0.33 10
2 10 Washington 1 0 1 1 1.52 -0.04 14
3 11 Pittsburgh 1 0 2 1 1.30 -0.06 18
4 12 NY Rangers 1 0 4 1 0.86 -0.01 12
5 17 Columbus 0 0 1 1 -0.16 -0.05 17
6 19 NY Islanders 1 1 1 2 -0.43 -0.11 23
7 24 Philadelphia 0 3 0 4 -1.14 -0.04 13
8 25 New Jersey 1 1 1 2 -1.32 -0.05 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conf Rank 3 Central Average 0.34
Rank All Team CW CL W L Rating Non-Conf SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 1 Colorado 1 0 2 0 3.76 -0.33 32
2 4 Minnesota 1 0 2 1 2.03 -0.25 27
3 9 Utah 1 0 3 1 1.55 -0.09 22
4 13 Dallas 0 2 1 2 0.79 -0.32 30
5 18 St Louis 1 2 1 2 -0.27 -0.30 29
6 21 Winnipeg 0 0 2 1 -0.64 -0.27 28
7 23 Nashville 1 1 1 2 -1.11 -0.33 31
8 30 Chicago 1 1 1 3 -3.43 -0.22 26
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conf Rank 4 West Average -1.46
Rank All Team CW CL W L Rating Non-Conf SOS
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 6 Las Vegas 2 1 3 1 1.98 0.95 1
2 15 Edmonton 2 1 2 1 0.16 0.46 4
3 16 Anaheim 1 0 2 0 -0.13 0.45 8
4 26 San Jose 1 0 2 1 -1.37 0.45 7
5 27 Seattle 2 2 2 2 -1.62 0.46 4
6 29 Los Angeles 0 1 0 3 -2.51 0.70 2
7 31 Vancouver 2 2 2 2 -4.05 0.46 3
8 32 Calgary 0 3 0 3 -4.12 0.46 6
Division Rankings
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Talisman Red's Hockey Ratings
Through Games of Tuesday 06 October 2026
Conference Rankings
-----------------------------------------
Rank Conference Avg. Rating Var
-----------------------------------------
1 East 0.57 +- 0.8
2 North 0.55 +- 0.8
3 Central 0.34 +- 1.1
4 West -1.46 +- 1.1
Explanation:
The simple average of all teams in a conference is shown
here. The 'var' column is half of the standard deviation
of those teams, which is not the best way but a simple-
enough way of describing the reasonableness of using a
single number to describe that conference's strength.
Description
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.