Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 23-May-2025 09:21 EST Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Winnipeg 59 33 4 3.03 50.79 2 2 Dallas 57 35 4 2.88 50.68 1 3 Las Vegas 54 33 6 2.31 50.53 4 4 Florida 51 39 7 2.19 50.64 10 5 Carolina 54 36 7 2.00 50.54 8 6 Colorado 48 34 7 1.88 50.44 6 7 Tampa Bay 46 35 6 1.88 50.62 12 8 Edmonton 56 37 1 1.87 50.38 5 9 Toronto 57 34 3 1.73 50.18 3 10 Los Angeles 49 35 6 1.72 50.41 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Washington 54 33 5 1.57 50.31 7 12 St Louis 43 39 7 0.87 50.21 13 13 Ottawa 46 39 3 0.83 50.04 11 14 Minnesota 45 38 6 0.49 50.04 14 15 Arizona 37 40 5 0.01 49.99 15 16 NY Rangers 38 43 1 0.00 50.11 18 17 New Jersey 40 41 7 -0.34 49.99 19 18 Columbus 34 41 7 -0.37 49.98 20 19 Calgary 36 39 8 -0.43 49.85 17 20 Montreal 39 42 6 -0.52 49.80 16 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Vancouver 35 42 6 -0.74 49.82 21 22 Buffalo 32 44 6 -0.76 49.89 24 23 Detroit 36 43 3 -1.00 49.74 22 24 NY Islanders 33 44 5 -1.02 49.78 25 25 Seattle 33 44 6 -1.20 49.79 26 26 Pittsburgh 33 42 7 -1.22 49.67 23 27 Boston 33 48 1 -1.66 49.62 27 28 Anaheim 32 45 6 -1.83 49.54 28 29 Nashville 28 52 2 -2.49 49.46 30 30 Philadelphia 27 46 9 -2.56 49.37 29 31 Chicago 23 53 6 -3.90 49.06 31 32 San Jose 18 57 7 -5.23 48.74 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 23-May-2025 09:21 EST) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Florida 19 18 1 51 39 7 2.19 ( 4) 50.64 32 21 6 -0.02 ( 19) 2 Tampa Bay 12 17 1 46 35 6 1.88 ( 7) 50.62 34 18 5 -0.09 ( 20) 3 Toronto 23 15 0 57 34 3 1.73 ( 9) 50.18 34 19 3 -0.13 ( 25) 4 Ottawa 15 16 1 46 39 3 0.83 ( 13) 50.04 31 23 2 -0.13 ( 23) 5 Montreal 18 8 0 39 42 6 -0.52 ( 20) 49.80 21 34 6 0.01 ( 18) 6 Buffalo 9 14 3 32 44 6 -0.76 ( 22) 49.89 23 30 3 -0.13 ( 22) 7 Detroit 10 15 1 36 43 3 -1.00 ( 23) 49.74 26 28 2 -0.13 ( 26) 8 Boston 11 14 1 33 48 1 -1.66 ( 27) 49.62 22 34 0 -0.13 ( 24) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Carolina 25 6 5 54 36 7 2.00 ( 5) 50.54 29 30 2 0.25 ( 1) 2 Washington 17 13 1 54 33 5 1.57 ( 11) 50.31 37 20 4 0.06 ( 17) 3 NY Rangers 11 14 1 38 43 1 0.00 ( 16) 50.11 27 29 0 0.12 ( 13) 4 New Jersey 13 15 3 40 41 7 -0.34 ( 17) 49.99 27 26 4 0.15 ( 10) 5 Columbus 8 12 6 34 41 7 -0.37 ( 18) 49.98 26 29 1 0.12 ( 14) 6 NY Islanders 10 13 3 33 44 5 -1.02 ( 24) 49.78 23 31 2 0.12 ( 12) 7 Pittsburgh 9 14 3 33 42 7 -1.22 ( 26) 49.67 24 28 4 0.12 ( 15) 8 Philadelphia 9 15 2 27 46 9 -2.56 ( 30) 49.37 18 31 7 0.12 ( 11) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Winnipeg 22 14 3 59 33 4 3.03 ( 1) 50.79 37 19 1 -0.19 ( 32) 2 Dallas 23 16 0 57 35 4 2.88 ( 2) 50.68 34 19 4 -0.13 ( 21) 3 Colorado 14 17 2 48 34 7 1.88 ( 6) 50.44 34 17 5 -0.16 ( 27) 4 St Louis 16 14 3 43 39 7 0.87 ( 12) 50.21 27 25 4 -0.16 ( 29) 5 Minnesota 11 13 2 45 38 6 0.49 ( 14) 50.04 34 25 4 0.11 ( 16) 6 Arizona 13 11 2 37 40 5 0.01 ( 15) 49.99 24 29 3 -0.16 ( 30) 7 Nashville 10 14 2 28 52 2 -2.49 ( 29) 49.46 18 38 0 -0.16 ( 28) 8 Chicago 6 16 4 23 53 6 -3.90 ( 31) 49.06 17 37 2 -0.16 ( 31) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Las Vegas 20 10 1 54 33 6 2.31 ( 3) 50.53 34 23 5 0.21 ( 4) 2 Edmonton 23 14 0 56 37 1 1.87 ( 8) 50.38 33 23 1 0.22 ( 3) 3 Los Angeles 16 15 2 49 35 6 1.72 ( 10) 50.41 33 20 4 0.17 ( 9) 4 Calgary 15 9 3 36 39 8 -0.43 ( 19) 49.85 21 30 5 0.18 ( 8) 5 Vancouver 11 13 3 35 42 6 -0.74 ( 21) 49.82 24 29 3 0.18 ( 6) 6 Seattle 12 13 2 33 44 6 -1.20 ( 25) 49.79 21 31 4 0.18 ( 7) 7 Anaheim 9 15 2 32 45 6 -1.83 ( 28) 49.54 23 30 4 0.23 ( 2) 8 San Jose 4 21 1 18 57 7 -5.23 ( 32) 48.74 14 36 6 0.18 ( 5)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 0.35 2 East 0.34 3 North -0.24 4 West -0.44PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 23-May-2025 Edmonton Dallas 5.5 HOME by 0.62 24-May-2025 Carolina Florida 4.8 HOME by 0.42 25-May-2025 Dallas Edmonton 6.3 HOME by 0.02 26-May-2025 Carolina Florida 4.8 HOME by 0.42
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.