National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

New important note for 2021-22: games that are still tied after overtime will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.


Ratings last updated Thursday 03/24/22, 04:21 PM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Florida 40 17 6 3.60 51.14 1 2 Colorado 43 18 4 2.76 50.78 2 3 Carolina 41 21 2 2.55 50.79 3 4 Tampa Bay 38 19 6 2.05 50.50 4 5 Calgary 36 25 2 2.04 50.85 12 6 Toronto 39 22 3 1.91 50.60 6 7 Nashville 36 25 4 1.83 50.58 8 8 Pittsburgh 37 20 9 1.74 50.51 7 9 St Louis 33 24 5 1.66 50.68 13 10 NY Rangers 36 22 7 1.49 50.32 5 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Minnesota 32 21 9 1.42 50.40 10 12 Boston 37 22 4 1.19 50.22 9 13 Dallas 32 26 5 0.88 50.11 11 14 Edmonton 33 28 3 0.80 50.29 14 15 Washington 31 28 6 0.45 50.29 16 16 Los Angeles 32 28 6 0.33 50.02 15 17 Winnipeg 29 31 5 0.02 50.11 20 18 NY Islanders 26 29 7 -0.09 50.04 18 19 Las Vegas 30 32 5 -0.17 49.99 19 20 Vancouver 28 32 6 -0.44 49.90 21 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Columbus 28 31 6 -0.69 49.63 17 22 San Jose 27 33 4 -1.22 49.60 22 23 New Jersey 21 37 6 -1.35 49.69 23 24 Anaheim 23 33 11 -1.72 49.55 26 25 Chicago 21 39 5 -1.87 49.46 27 26 Detroit 23 36 5 -2.16 49.25 24 27 Arizona 19 39 5 -2.22 49.22 25 28 Ottawa 21 41 2 -2.34 49.33 28 29 Philadelphia 20 39 4 -2.75 49.16 30 30 Buffalo 21 40 4 -2.81 49.11 29 31 Seattle 18 43 3 -2.92 49.15 31 32 Montreal 15 45 3 -3.98 48.73 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 0.56 2 North 0.17 3 East -0.32 4 West -0.41

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 24-Mar-2022 Tampa Bay Boston 6.3 AWAY by -0.00 24-Mar-2022 Dallas Carolina 4.5 HOME by 0.96 24-Mar-2022 Florida Montreal 6.3 AWAY by -2.13 24-Mar-2022 Ottawa NY Islanders 4.8 HOME by 0.99 24-Mar-2022 Vancouver Minnesota 6.9 HOME by 0.78 24-Mar-2022 Philadelphia St Louis 6.1 HOME by 1.81 24-Mar-2022 San Jose Edmonton 6.3 HOME by 0.97 24-Mar-2022 Chicago Los Angeles 5.4 HOME by 0.84 24-Mar-2022 Nashville Las Vegas 6.4 AWAY by -0.31 25-Mar-2022 Washington Buffalo 5.9 AWAY by -0.91 25-Mar-2022 Pittsburgh NY Rangers 4.7 HOME by 0.09 25-Mar-2022 Columbus Winnipeg 7.2 HOME by 0.76 25-Mar-2022 Arizona Calgary 5.6 HOME by 1.90 25-Mar-2022 Philadelphia Colorado 6.4 HOME by 1.90 25-Mar-2022 Seattle Anaheim 5.6 HOME by 0.67 26-Mar-2022 NY Islanders Boston 5.3 HOME by 0.46 26-Mar-2022 Tampa Bay Detroit 7.1 AWAY by -0.98 26-Mar-2022 Vancouver Dallas 6.1 HOME by 0.49 26-Mar-2022 Chicago Las Vegas 5.9 HOME by 0.81 26-Mar-2022 Toronto Montreal 6.7 AWAY by -1.59 26-Mar-2022 Florida Ottawa 5.9 AWAY by -1.52 26-Mar-2022 New Jersey Washington 7.1 HOME by 0.88 26-Mar-2022 Columbus Minnesota 7.7 HOME by 1.05 26-Mar-2022 Carolina St Louis 6.4 HOME by 0.17 26-Mar-2022 Edmonton Calgary 5.6 HOME by 0.83 26-Mar-2022 Seattle Los Angeles 5.5 HOME by 1.14 26-Mar-2022 Anaheim San Jose 6.0 HOME by 0.33 27-Mar-2022 Tampa Bay NY Islanders 5.5 AWAY by -0.18 27-Mar-2022 Buffalo NY Rangers 5.3 HOME by 1.49 27-Mar-2022 Detroit Pittsburgh 6.3 HOME by 1.54 27-Mar-2022 Colorado Minnesota 7.4 AWAY by -0.11 27-Mar-2022 Philadelphia Nashville 5.4 HOME by 1.70 27-Mar-2022 Montreal New Jersey 6.9 HOME by 1.24 27-Mar-2022 Florida Toronto 6.6 AWAY by -0.26 27-Mar-2022 Arizona Winnipeg 6.5 HOME by 1.17 28-Mar-2022 Carolina Washington 6.2 AWAY by -0.22 28-Mar-2022 Vancouver St Louis 6.2 HOME by 1.07 28-Mar-2022 Buffalo Chicago 6.1 HOME by 0.63 28-Mar-2022 Arizona Edmonton 6.7 HOME by 1.35 28-Mar-2022 Seattle Los Angeles 5.5 HOME by 1.14 29-Mar-2022 Toronto Boston 6.6 AWAY by -0.10 29-Mar-2022 NY Islanders Columbus 6.4 AWAY by -0.14 29-Mar-2022 Montreal Florida 8.0 HOME by 2.68 29-Mar-2022 NY Rangers Pittsburgh 5.7 HOME by 0.46 29-Mar-2022 Carolina Tampa Bay 5.9 AWAY by -0.01 29-Mar-2022 Philadelphia Minnesota 6.7 HOME by 1.52 29-Mar-2022 Ottawa Nashville 5.5 HOME by 1.52 29-Mar-2022 Colorado Calgary 6.0 HOME by 0.34 29-Mar-2022 Dallas Anaheim 5.1 AWAY by -0.28 30-Mar-2022 Winnipeg Buffalo 5.8 AWAY by -0.73 30-Mar-2022 NY Rangers Detroit 6.4 AWAY by -0.80 30-Mar-2022 Los Angeles Edmonton 6.1 HOME by 0.55 30-Mar-2022 San Jose Arizona 5.7 AWAY by -0.10 30-Mar-2022 Las Vegas Seattle 6.2 AWAY by -0.56 30-Mar-2022 St Louis Vancouver 5.5 AWAY by -0.51 31-Mar-2022 New Jersey Boston 6.8 HOME by 0.81 31-Mar-2022 Montreal Carolina 5.8 HOME by 2.34 31-Mar-2022 Chicago Florida 7.2 HOME by 1.95 31-Mar-2022 Columbus NY Islanders 5.7 HOME by 0.69 31-Mar-2022 Winnipeg Toronto 6.1 HOME by 0.76 31-Mar-2022 Pittsburgh Minnesota 6.3 HOME by 0.16 31-Mar-2022 Los Angeles Calgary 5.0 HOME by 1.10 31-Mar-2022 San Jose Colorado 6.3 HOME by 1.46 31-Mar-2022 Dallas Anaheim 5.1 AWAY by -0.28 01-Apr-2022 Nashville Buffalo 6.4 AWAY by -1.19 01-Apr-2022 NY Islanders NY Rangers 4.7 HOME by 0.56 01-Apr-2022 Chicago Tampa Bay 5.7 HOME by 1.32 01-Apr-2022 Ottawa Detroit 6.4 HOME by 0.19 01-Apr-2022 St Louis Edmonton 6.9 AWAY by -0.11 01-Apr-2022 Las Vegas Seattle 6.2 AWAY by -0.56 01-Apr-2022 Anaheim Arizona 6.3 AWAY by -0.05

Current home field advantage is: 0.28 MAE for games to date: 2.01 These ratings fit to produce 0.60 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.56: 0.66 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.80. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 1.06.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats