Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 23-Jan-2025 08:24 EST Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Winnipeg 32 18 0 3.03 50.78 2 2 Washington 32 13 2 2.82 50.50 1 3 Dallas 27 18 2 2.78 50.68 3 4 Carolina 29 18 4 2.61 50.65 4 5 Las Vegas 28 16 3 2.24 50.51 6 6 Florida 24 21 5 1.92 50.51 10 7 Edmonton 29 18 0 1.81 50.42 8 8 Minnesota 27 17 4 1.73 50.27 5 9 Los Angeles 26 18 3 1.57 50.34 9 10 Tampa Bay 24 19 3 1.44 50.50 13 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Colorado 27 20 2 1.17 50.21 11 12 Toronto 29 19 0 0.83 49.95 7 13 NY Rangers 22 24 1 0.56 50.14 14 14 New Jersey 27 22 2 0.55 50.19 15 15 Ottawa 23 22 2 0.45 49.97 12 16 Arizona 20 24 2 -0.09 50.01 18 17 Montreal 22 21 4 -0.32 49.83 16 18 Boston 23 25 1 -0.65 49.75 17 19 Columbus 19 24 5 -0.66 49.94 22 20 NY Islanders 17 26 3 -0.71 49.93 24 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Pittsburgh 19 25 5 -0.92 49.79 21 22 Calgary 19 22 5 -0.95 49.76 20 23 Vancouver 19 25 3 -0.98 49.80 23 24 Philadelphia 19 23 6 -1.19 49.60 19 25 St Louis 21 25 2 -1.27 49.73 25 26 Buffalo 16 28 3 -1.28 49.89 28 27 Seattle 20 25 4 -1.29 49.76 26 28 Nashville 16 29 1 -1.72 49.76 30 29 Detroit 20 26 1 -1.95 49.54 27 30 Anaheim 17 27 4 -2.44 49.40 29 31 San Jose 14 32 4 -4.45 48.94 31 32 Chicago 14 31 2 -4.63 48.95 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 23-Jan-2025 08:24 EST) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Florida 5 6 0 24 21 5 1.92 ( 6) 50.51 19 15 5 0.28 ( 4) 2 Tampa Bay 3 7 0 24 19 3 1.44 ( 10) 50.50 21 12 3 0.21 ( 8) 3 Toronto 10 5 0 29 19 0 0.83 ( 12) 49.95 19 14 0 0.33 ( 3) 4 Ottawa 5 4 1 23 22 2 0.45 ( 15) 49.97 18 18 1 0.21 ( 9) 5 Montreal 9 4 0 22 21 4 -0.32 ( 17) 49.83 13 17 4 0.27 ( 5) 6 Boston 8 6 1 23 25 1 -0.65 ( 18) 49.75 15 19 0 -0.10 ( 21) 7 Buffalo 4 7 1 16 28 3 -1.28 ( 26) 49.89 12 21 2 -0.05 ( 19) 8 Detroit 4 9 1 20 26 1 -1.95 ( 29) 49.54 16 17 0 -0.57 ( 31) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 11 4 0 32 13 2 2.82 ( 2) 50.50 21 9 2 0.04 ( 17) 2 Carolina 12 4 2 29 18 4 2.61 ( 4) 50.65 17 14 2 0.25 ( 6) 3 NY Rangers 4 7 1 22 24 1 0.56 ( 13) 50.14 18 17 0 -0.36 ( 26) 4 New Jersey 8 8 0 27 22 2 0.55 ( 14) 50.19 19 14 2 -0.39 ( 28) 5 Columbus 3 6 5 19 24 5 -0.66 ( 19) 49.94 16 18 0 -0.35 ( 25) 6 NY Islanders 4 7 1 17 26 3 -0.71 ( 20) 49.93 13 19 2 -0.58 ( 32) 7 Pittsburgh 3 9 2 19 25 5 -0.92 ( 21) 49.79 16 16 3 0.11 ( 12) 8 Philadelphia 5 5 1 19 23 6 -1.19 ( 24) 49.60 14 18 5 -0.28 ( 24) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Winnipeg 13 5 0 32 18 0 3.03 ( 1) 50.78 19 13 0 -0.38 ( 27) 2 Dallas 11 5 0 27 18 2 2.78 ( 3) 50.68 16 13 2 0.08 ( 14) 3 Minnesota 9 8 1 27 17 4 1.73 ( 8) 50.27 18 9 3 0.20 ( 10) 4 Colorado 7 9 0 27 20 2 1.17 ( 11) 50.21 20 11 2 0.04 ( 16) 5 Arizona 6 7 1 20 24 2 -0.09 ( 16) 50.01 14 17 1 -0.22 ( 22) 6 St Louis 3 7 0 21 25 2 -1.27 ( 25) 49.73 18 18 2 -0.22 ( 23) 7 Nashville 6 8 1 16 29 1 -1.72 ( 28) 49.76 10 21 0 0.22 ( 7) 8 Chicago 4 10 1 14 31 2 -4.63 ( 32) 48.95 10 21 1 -0.46 ( 30) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Las Vegas 14 3 0 28 16 3 2.24 ( 5) 50.51 14 13 3 0.57 ( 1) 2 Edmonton 7 6 0 29 18 0 1.81 ( 7) 50.42 22 12 0 0.01 ( 18) 3 Los Angeles 7 8 1 26 18 3 1.57 ( 9) 50.34 19 10 2 0.14 ( 11) 4 Calgary 7 5 1 19 22 5 -0.95 ( 22) 49.76 12 17 4 -0.44 ( 29) 5 Vancouver 6 6 2 19 25 3 -0.98 ( 23) 49.80 13 19 1 -0.07 ( 20) 6 Seattle 5 6 2 20 25 4 -1.29 ( 27) 49.76 15 19 2 0.04 ( 15) 7 Anaheim 4 10 0 17 27 4 -2.44 ( 30) 49.40 13 17 4 0.40 ( 2) 8 San Jose 4 10 0 14 32 4 -4.45 ( 31) 48.94 10 22 4 0.10 ( 13)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 North 0.38 2 Central 0.12 3 East 0.06 4 West -0.56PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 23-Jan-2025 Ottawa Boston 4.3 AWAY by -0.03 23-Jan-2025 Montreal Detroit 6.4 AWAY by -0.10 23-Jan-2025 Philadelphia NY Rangers 6.5 HOME by 0.74 23-Jan-2025 Columbus Carolina 6.5 HOME by 0.91 23-Jan-2025 Las Vegas St Louis 5.9 AWAY by -0.58 23-Jan-2025 Arizona Minnesota 6.5 HOME by 0.46 23-Jan-2025 Buffalo Calgary 6.1 HOME by 0.08 23-Jan-2025 Vancouver Edmonton 4.9 HOME by 0.81 23-Jan-2025 Pittsburgh Anaheim 6.6 AWAY by -0.19 23-Jan-2025 Washington Seattle 5.3 AWAY by -0.55 23-Jan-2025 Nashville San Jose 5.2 AWAY by -0.63 24-Jan-2025 Philadelphia NY Islanders 6.2 HOME by 0.52 24-Jan-2025 Tampa Bay Chicago 6.9 AWAY by -1.34 24-Jan-2025 Las Vegas Dallas 5.4 HOME by 0.37 24-Jan-2025 Arizona Winnipeg 6.2 HOME by 0.97 25-Jan-2025 Colorado Boston 5.1 AWAY by -0.27 25-Jan-2025 Buffalo Edmonton 6.2 HOME by 0.73 25-Jan-2025 Pittsburgh Seattle 6.2 HOME by 0.17 25-Jan-2025 New Jersey Montreal 6.2 AWAY by -0.16 25-Jan-2025 Toronto Ottawa 6.2 HOME by 0.22 25-Jan-2025 Tampa Bay Detroit 6.5 AWAY by -0.76 25-Jan-2025 Los Angeles Columbus 6.1 AWAY by -0.20 25-Jan-2025 Dallas St Louis 5.3 AWAY by -0.76 25-Jan-2025 Calgary Minnesota 6.1 HOME by 0.71 25-Jan-2025 Carolina NY Islanders 5.1 AWAY by -0.53 25-Jan-2025 Washington Vancouver 5.6 AWAY by -0.51 25-Jan-2025 Nashville Anaheim 5.1 AWAY by -0.16 25-Jan-2025 Florida San Jose 6.4 AWAY by -1.38 26-Jan-2025 Colorado NY Rangers 5.9 HOME by 0.13 26-Jan-2025 Arizona Ottawa 6.3 HOME by 0.16 26-Jan-2025 Calgary Winnipeg 5.8 HOME by 1.21 26-Jan-2025 Minnesota Chicago 6.3 AWAY by -1.12 26-Jan-2025 Florida Las Vegas 6.5 HOME by 0.20
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.