Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 12-Jan-2026 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 32 7 5 6.63 51.81 1 2 Tampa Bay 26 15 2 3.64 50.89 2 3 Dallas 23 16 6 2.27 50.62 3 4 Washington 23 18 5 1.64 50.47 7 5 Carolina 24 15 6 1.37 50.32 6 6 Minnesota 23 17 6 1.29 50.36 10 7 Detroit 25 17 4 1.16 50.09 4 8 Montreal 23 16 6 1.07 50.13 5 9 NY Islanders 21 15 9 1.05 50.18 8 10 Boston 23 20 3 0.90 50.16 9 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Pittsburgh 20 18 6 0.81 50.17 11 12 Buffalo 21 19 3 0.49 50.10 12 13 Las Vegas 20 18 6 0.35 50.09 14 14 Toronto 22 21 1 0.25 50.14 16 15 Florida 21 20 3 0.13 49.93 13 16 Edmonton 22 20 3 0.11 50.05 15 17 Los Angeles 16 20 8 -0.17 50.03 19 18 Arizona 22 24 0 -0.30 50.05 22 19 Seattle 19 19 5 -0.36 49.88 18 20 Philadelphia 17 18 8 -0.58 49.91 21 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 San Jose 21 21 3 -0.78 49.65 17 22 New Jersey 19 23 3 -1.10 49.60 20 23 Nashville 18 24 3 -1.20 49.61 23 24 Ottawa 17 24 3 -1.47 49.67 25 25 NY Rangers 18 26 2 -1.52 49.66 26 26 Anaheim 17 24 4 -1.52 49.62 24 27 Chicago 17 23 5 -1.70 49.62 27 28 Columbus 15 25 5 -2.03 49.60 29 29 Winnipeg 16 26 2 -2.17 49.72 32 30 Calgary 17 24 4 -2.31 49.40 28 31 Vancouver 12 27 5 -2.88 49.32 31 32 St Louis 17 27 2 -3.06 49.13 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 12-Jan-2026 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 5 4 1 26 15 2 3.64 ( 2) 50.89 21 11 1 0.04 ( 14) 2 Detroit 8 4 1 25 17 4 1.16 ( 7) 50.09 17 13 3 -0.66 ( 32) 3 Montreal 7 5 2 23 16 6 1.07 ( 8) 50.13 16 11 4 -0.39 ( 29) 4 Boston 6 8 1 23 20 3 0.90 ( 10) 50.16 17 12 2 -0.19 ( 19) 5 Buffalo 7 4 0 21 19 3 0.49 ( 12) 50.10 14 15 3 -0.38 ( 28) 6 Toronto 6 7 1 22 21 1 0.25 ( 14) 50.14 16 14 0 -0.56 ( 31) 7 Florida 4 8 0 21 20 3 0.13 ( 15) 49.93 17 12 3 0.07 ( 13) 8 Ottawa 5 8 0 17 24 3 -1.47 ( 24) 49.67 12 16 3 -0.35 ( 27) --- North CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 9 3 2 23 18 5 1.64 ( 4) 50.47 14 15 3 0.04 ( 15) 2 Carolina 7 3 3 24 15 6 1.37 ( 5) 50.32 17 12 3 0.42 ( 5) 3 NY Islanders 7 5 2 21 15 9 1.05 ( 9) 50.18 14 10 7 0.68 ( 2) 4 Pittsburgh 8 1 3 20 18 6 0.81 ( 11) 50.17 12 17 3 -0.16 ( 17) 5 Philadelphia 2 2 6 17 18 8 -0.58 ( 20) 49.91 15 16 2 -0.20 ( 21) 6 New Jersey 2 10 2 19 23 3 -1.10 ( 22) 49.60 17 13 1 0.54 ( 3) 7 NY Rangers 3 7 2 18 26 2 -1.52 ( 25) 49.66 15 19 0 0.28 ( 8) 8 Columbus 2 9 2 15 25 5 -2.03 ( 28) 49.60 13 16 3 0.27 ( 9) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 8 1 3 32 7 5 6.63 ( 1) 51.81 24 6 2 -0.12 ( 16) 2 Dallas 6 3 2 23 16 6 2.27 ( 3) 50.62 17 13 4 -0.20 ( 20) 3 Minnesota 6 5 1 23 17 6 1.29 ( 6) 50.36 17 12 5 -0.40 ( 30) 4 Arizona 7 6 0 22 24 0 -0.30 ( 18) 50.05 15 18 0 -0.30 ( 26) 5 Nashville 5 10 1 18 24 3 -1.20 ( 23) 49.61 13 14 2 -0.29 ( 24) 6 Chicago 5 5 1 17 23 5 -1.70 ( 27) 49.62 12 18 4 -0.18 ( 18) 7 Winnipeg 4 8 0 16 26 2 -2.17 ( 29) 49.72 12 18 2 -0.22 ( 23) 8 St Louis 5 8 0 17 27 2 -3.06 ( 32) 49.13 12 19 2 -0.21 ( 22) --- West CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Las Vegas 6 5 1 20 18 6 0.35 ( 13) 50.09 14 13 5 0.11 ( 12) 2 Edmonton 5 3 2 22 20 3 0.11 ( 16) 50.05 17 17 1 0.18 ( 11) 3 Los Angeles 3 4 4 16 20 8 -0.17 ( 17) 50.03 13 16 4 0.50 ( 4) 4 Seattle 9 4 2 19 19 5 -0.36 ( 19) 49.88 10 15 3 0.22 ( 10) 5 San Jose 6 9 1 21 21 3 -0.78 ( 21) 49.65 15 12 2 0.90 ( 1) 6 Anaheim 3 5 1 17 24 4 -1.52 ( 26) 49.62 14 19 3 0.35 ( 7) 7 Calgary 6 6 1 17 24 4 -2.31 ( 30) 49.40 11 18 3 -0.29 ( 25) 8 Vancouver 3 5 2 12 27 5 -2.88 ( 31) 49.32 9 22 3 0.40 ( 6)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.77 2 Central 0.22 3 North -0.04 4 West -0.95PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 12-Jan-2026 Florida Buffalo 6.5 HOME by 0.29 12-Jan-2026 Carolina Detroit 6.2 AWAY by -0.10 12-Jan-2026 Seattle NY Rangers 5.0 AWAY by -0.09 12-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay Philadelphia 5.9 AWAY by -0.86 12-Jan-2026 Vancouver Montreal 6.5 HOME by 0.94 12-Jan-2026 New Jersey Minnesota 5.4 HOME by 0.89 12-Jan-2026 Edmonton Chicago 5.5 AWAY by -0.30 12-Jan-2026 Toronto Colorado 7.0 HOME by 1.80 12-Jan-2026 Dallas Los Angeles 5.9 AWAY by -0.46 13-Jan-2026 Vancouver Ottawa 6.1 HOME by 0.47 13-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay Pittsburgh 6.9 AWAY by -0.59 13-Jan-2026 Montreal Washington 6.2 HOME by 0.47 13-Jan-2026 Calgary Columbus 5.3 HOME by 0.33 13-Jan-2026 Detroit Boston 5.8 HOME by 0.19 13-Jan-2026 Carolina St Louis 5.7 AWAY by -1.06 13-Jan-2026 Edmonton Nashville 5.7 AWAY by -0.31 13-Jan-2026 NY Islanders Winnipeg 6.1 AWAY by -0.33 13-Jan-2026 Toronto Arizona 6.8 HOME by 0.04 13-Jan-2026 Dallas Anaheim 7.4 AWAY by -0.88 14-Jan-2026 Seattle New Jersey 5.3 AWAY by -0.15 14-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Buffalo 6.1 HOME by 0.32 14-Jan-2026 Ottawa NY Rangers 6.3 HOME by 0.12 14-Jan-2026 Las Vegas Los Angeles 4.9 HOME by 0.07 15-Jan-2026 Seattle Boston 5.8 HOME by 0.40 15-Jan-2026 Montreal Buffalo 6.6 HOME by 0.09 15-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Pittsburgh 6.5 HOME by 0.40 15-Jan-2026 San Jose Washington 6.7 HOME by 0.95 15-Jan-2026 Vancouver Columbus 6.4 HOME by 0.40 15-Jan-2026 Winnipeg Minnesota 5.5 HOME by 0.77 15-Jan-2026 Calgary Chicago 4.7 HOME by 0.35 15-Jan-2026 Dallas Arizona 6.6 AWAY by -0.44 15-Jan-2026 NY Islanders Edmonton 7.0 AWAY by -0.00 15-Jan-2026 Toronto Las Vegas 6.9 HOME by 0.08 16-Jan-2026 San Jose Detroit 7.2 HOME by 0.57 16-Jan-2026 Florida Carolina 6.8 HOME by 0.52 16-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay St Louis 5.9 AWAY by -1.64 16-Jan-2026 Nashville Colorado 6.4 HOME by 2.33 16-Jan-2026 Anaheim Los Angeles 6.4 HOME by 0.54
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.