Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings


Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Reminder: games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.


Ratings last updated Tuesday 05/28/24 02:00 PM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Florida 59 32 7 2.70 50.78 3 2 Carolina 56 28 12 2.70 50.71 2 3 NY Rangers 61 27 9 2.69 50.60 1 4 Dallas 58 33 8 2.46 50.71 4 5 Edmonton 55 38 9 2.32 50.82 6 6 Colorado 54 35 9 1.82 50.63 8 7 Vancouver 57 36 9 1.61 50.40 7 8 Boston 49 39 10 1.53 50.72 11 9 Winnipeg 53 33 6 1.51 50.31 5 10 Las Vegas 44 39 7 1.27 50.64 14 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Los Angeles 43 37 9 1.05 50.50 13 12 Toronto 44 39 9 1.00 50.43 12 13 Tampa Bay 43 41 5 0.68 50.15 9 14 Nashville 46 39 7 0.51 50.06 10 15 New Jersey 38 42 2 0.22 50.16 18 16 Minnesota 36 40 6 -0.00 49.99 15 17 Calgary 38 40 4 -0.13 49.96 19 18 Detroit 38 40 4 -0.16 49.90 16 19 NY Islanders 38 43 9 -0.21 49.98 21 20 St Louis 38 37 7 -0.37 49.78 17 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Pittsburgh 36 41 5 -0.51 49.92 23 22 Buffalo 37 42 3 -0.57 49.78 22 23 Seattle 31 44 7 -0.58 50.00 26 24 Ottawa 32 45 5 -0.73 49.87 25 25 Washington 36 41 11 -1.01 49.47 20 26 Philadelphia 34 41 7 -1.20 49.49 24 27 Arizona 34 46 2 -1.32 49.64 27 28 Montreal 26 44 12 -1.89 49.48 28 29 Columbus 24 53 5 -2.95 49.13 29 30 Anaheim 26 53 3 -3.45 48.84 30 31 Chicago 22 58 2 -4.07 48.75 31 32 San Jose 18 58 6 -4.93 48.43 32
Divisional rankings: Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.32 2 Central 0.07 3 North -0.03 4 West -0.35
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 28-May-2024 NY Rangers Florida 5.8 HOME by 0.44 29-May-2024 Dallas Edmonton 6.6 HOME by 0.37 30-May-2024 Florida NY Rangers 5.6 HOME by 0.07
Current home field advantage is: 0.25 MAE for games to date: 2.05 These ratings fit to produce 0.58 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.51: 0.64 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.72. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.91.

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats