Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 11-Aug-2024 10:46 EST Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Florida 0 0 3.45 51.26 2 2 Carolina 0 0 3.33 51.12 1 3 Edmonton 0 0 2.51 50.98 4 4 Dallas 0 0 2.24 50.84 5 5 NY Rangers 0 0 2.12 50.60 3 6 Colorado 0 0 2.10 50.77 6 7 Boston 0 0 1.42 50.63 10 8 Toronto 0 0 1.41 50.56 9 9 Vancouver 0 0 1.20 50.33 7 10 Winnipeg 0 0 1.13 50.33 8 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Tampa Bay 0 0 1.10 50.46 11 12 Nashville 0 0 0.83 50.31 12 13 Buffalo 0 0 0.78 50.47 15 14 Las Vegas 0 0 0.48 50.15 13 15 Detroit 0 0 0.42 50.12 14 16 Los Angeles 0 0 0.09 50.07 18 17 St Louis 0 0 0.09 49.98 16 18 NY Islanders 0 0 0.03 49.98 17 19 Pittsburgh 0 0 -0.43 49.90 22 20 Washington 0 0 -0.50 49.73 20 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Minnesota 0 0 -0.51 49.72 19 22 Calgary 0 0 -0.59 49.76 21 23 New Jersey 0 0 -0.77 49.82 23 24 Seattle 0 0 -1.35 49.69 28 25 Ottawa 0 0 -1.36 49.45 24 26 Montreal 0 0 -1.42 49.59 27 27 Utah 0 0 -1.49 49.50 26 28 Philadelphia 0 0 -1.56 49.31 25 29 Columbus 0 0 -2.63 49.07 29 30 Anaheim 0 0 -3.28 48.68 30 31 Chicago 0 0 -3.97 48.58 31 32 San Jose 0 0 -4.89 48.25 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 11-Aug-2024 10:46 EST) --- East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Florida 0 0 0 0 3.45 ( 1) 51.26 0 0 -99.00 ( 13) 2 Boston 0 0 0 0 1.42 ( 7) 50.63 0 0 -99.00 ( 3) 3 Toronto 0 0 0 0 1.41 ( 8) 50.56 0 0 -99.00 ( 28) 4 Tampa Bay 0 0 0 0 1.10 ( 11) 50.46 0 0 -99.00 ( 27) 5 Buffalo 0 0 0 0 0.78 ( 13) 50.47 0 0 -99.00 ( 4) 6 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0.42 ( 15) 50.12 0 0 -99.00 ( 11) 7 Ottawa 0 0 0 0 -1.36 ( 25) 49.45 0 0 -99.00 ( 21) 8 Montreal 0 0 0 0 -1.42 ( 26) 49.59 0 0 -99.00 ( 16) --- North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Carolina 0 0 0 0 3.33 ( 2) 51.12 0 0 -99.00 ( 6) 2 NY Rangers 0 0 0 0 2.12 ( 5) 50.60 0 0 -99.00 ( 20) 3 NY Islanders 0 0 0 0 0.03 ( 18) 49.98 0 0 -99.00 ( 19) 4 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 0 -0.43 ( 19) 49.90 0 0 -99.00 ( 24) 5 Washington 0 0 0 0 -0.50 ( 20) 49.73 0 0 -99.00 ( 30) 6 New Jersey 0 0 0 0 -0.77 ( 23) 49.82 0 0 -99.00 ( 18) 7 Philadelphia 0 0 0 0 -1.56 ( 28) 49.31 0 0 -99.00 ( 22) 8 Columbus 0 0 0 0 -2.63 ( 29) 49.07 0 0 -99.00 ( 9) --- Central CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Dallas 0 0 0 0 2.24 ( 4) 50.84 0 0 -99.00 ( 10) 2 Colorado 0 0 0 0 2.10 ( 6) 50.77 0 0 -99.00 ( 8) 3 Winnipeg 0 0 0 0 1.13 ( 10) 50.33 0 0 -99.00 ( 2) 4 Nashville 0 0 0 0 0.83 ( 12) 50.31 0 0 -99.00 ( 17) 5 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0.09 ( 17) 49.98 0 0 -99.00 ( 26) 6 Minnesota 0 0 0 0 -0.51 ( 21) 49.72 0 0 -99.00 ( 15) 7 Utah 0 0 0 0 -1.49 ( 27) 49.50 0 0 -99.00 ( 23) 8 Chicago 0 0 0 0 -3.97 ( 31) 48.58 0 0 -99.00 ( 7) --- West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Edmonton 0 0 0 0 2.51 ( 3) 50.98 0 0 -99.00 ( 12) 2 Vancouver 0 0 0 0 1.20 ( 9) 50.33 0 0 -99.00 ( 29) 3 Las Vegas 0 0 0 0 0.48 ( 14) 50.15 0 0 -99.00 ( 31) 4 Los Angeles 0 0 0 0 0.09 ( 16) 50.07 0 0 -99.00 ( 14) 5 Calgary 0 0 0 0 -0.59 ( 22) 49.76 0 0 -99.00 ( 5) 6 Seattle 0 0 0 0 -1.35 ( 24) 49.69 0 0 -99.00 ( 32) 7 Anaheim 0 0 0 0 -3.28 ( 30) 48.68 0 0 -99.00 ( 1) 8 San Jose 0 0 0 0 -4.89 ( 32) 48.25 0 0 -99.00 ( 25)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.73 2 Central 0.05 3 North -0.05 4 West -0.73PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Sep-2024 Pittsburgh Buffalo 5.8 HOME by 0.77 21-Sep-2024 St Louis Dallas 5.9 HOME by 1.06 21-Sep-2024 Minnesota Winnipeg 5.9 HOME by 0.81 22-Sep-2024 Nashville Florida 5.0 HOME by 1.15 22-Sep-2024 Philadelphia Washington 6.9 HOME by 0.61 22-Sep-2024 NY Rangers Boston 6.2 HOME by 0.23 22-Sep-2024 Winnipeg Edmonton 5.3 HOME by 0.85 22-Sep-2024 NY Islanders New Jersey 6.7 HOME by 0.05 22-Sep-2024 Ottawa Toronto 6.1 HOME by 1.31 22-Sep-2024 Las Vegas San Jose 6.6 AWAY by -1.70 22-Sep-2024 Calgary Seattle 5.9 HOME by 0.13 22-Sep-2024 St Louis Utah 7.0 AWAY by -0.28 23-Sep-2024 Nashville Florida 5.0 HOME by 1.15 23-Sep-2024 Columbus Buffalo 5.9 HOME by 1.59 23-Sep-2024 Philadelphia Montreal 6.8 HOME by 0.47 23-Sep-2024 Seattle Vancouver 4.7 HOME by 0.84 23-Sep-2024 Calgary Edmonton 7.0 HOME by 1.42 23-Sep-2024 Dallas Colorado 6.1 HOME by 0.13 23-Sep-2024 Los Angeles Utah 6.5 AWAY by -0.37
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.