Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 11-Feb-2026 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 36 13 6 4.68 51.30 1 2 Tampa Bay 33 16 6 4.02 51.02 2 3 Dallas 30 20 7 2.02 50.52 4 4 Pittsburgh 28 20 8 2.02 50.53 5 5 Carolina 32 18 7 1.97 50.47 3 6 Montreal 30 21 6 1.63 50.37 8 7 Boston 30 22 5 1.55 50.30 6 8 Minnesota 30 21 7 1.51 50.36 9 9 Buffalo 29 25 3 1.46 50.41 10 10 Detroit 31 22 5 1.16 50.11 7 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Utah 30 27 0 0.98 50.38 13 12 Washington 28 25 6 0.79 50.23 12 13 NY Islanders 28 21 9 0.63 50.05 11 14 Las Vegas 26 24 7 0.32 50.14 14 15 Columbus 24 26 7 -0.04 50.03 16 16 Seattle 26 25 5 -0.05 49.98 15 17 Ottawa 25 29 3 -0.09 50.07 21 18 Edmonton 28 27 3 -0.12 50.03 19 19 Toronto 26 29 2 -0.46 49.92 22 20 Anaheim 24 26 6 -0.62 49.76 18 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Florida 25 27 5 -0.67 49.73 17 22 San Jose 25 27 3 -0.85 49.68 20 23 Los Angeles 19 27 11 -0.91 49.84 25 24 Nashville 23 31 3 -1.34 49.59 24 25 New Jersey 25 29 3 -1.35 49.50 23 26 Philadelphia 20 28 8 -1.62 49.66 26 27 Winnipeg 21 32 3 -2.01 49.66 29 28 Calgary 21 31 4 -2.38 49.38 27 29 NY Rangers 20 35 2 -2.48 49.45 30 30 Chicago 19 30 8 -2.54 49.36 28 31 St Louis 19 34 4 -3.17 49.17 31 32 Vancouver 14 37 6 -4.06 49.00 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 11-Feb-2026 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 7 4 2 33 16 6 4.02 ( 2) 51.02 26 12 4 -0.33 ( 30) 2 Montreal 9 8 2 30 21 6 1.63 ( 6) 50.37 21 13 4 -0.31 ( 29) 3 Boston 8 8 3 30 22 5 1.55 ( 7) 50.30 22 14 2 -0.45 ( 32) 4 Buffalo 11 7 0 29 25 3 1.46 ( 9) 50.41 18 18 3 -0.34 ( 31) 5 Detroit 10 5 1 31 22 5 1.16 ( 10) 50.11 21 17 4 -0.27 ( 27) 6 Ottawa 5 10 0 25 29 3 -0.09 ( 17) 50.07 20 19 3 -0.31 ( 28) 7 Toronto 6 9 1 26 29 2 -0.46 ( 19) 49.92 20 20 1 -0.26 ( 25) 8 Florida 5 10 1 25 27 5 -0.67 ( 21) 49.73 20 17 4 -0.27 ( 26) --- North CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Pittsburgh 10 2 4 28 20 8 2.02 ( 4) 50.53 18 18 4 -0.19 ( 22) 2 Carolina 9 4 3 32 18 7 1.97 ( 5) 50.47 23 14 4 0.16 ( 9) 3 Washington 11 4 2 28 25 6 0.79 ( 12) 50.23 17 21 4 -0.00 ( 14) 4 NY Islanders 12 6 2 28 21 9 0.63 ( 13) 50.05 16 15 7 0.37 ( 4) 5 Columbus 4 9 3 24 26 7 -0.04 ( 15) 50.03 20 17 4 -0.03 ( 16) 6 New Jersey 2 13 2 25 29 3 -1.35 ( 25) 49.50 23 16 1 0.20 ( 7) 7 Philadelphia 3 6 6 20 28 8 -1.62 ( 26) 49.66 17 22 2 0.08 ( 12) 8 NY Rangers 4 11 2 20 35 2 -2.48 ( 29) 49.45 16 24 0 0.23 ( 6) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 8 2 3 36 13 6 4.68 ( 1) 51.30 28 11 3 -0.02 ( 15) 2 Dallas 11 4 2 30 20 7 2.02 ( 3) 50.52 19 16 5 -0.04 ( 18) 3 Minnesota 7 6 2 30 21 7 1.51 ( 8) 50.36 23 15 5 -0.23 ( 24) 4 Utah 9 7 0 30 27 0 0.98 ( 11) 50.38 21 20 0 -0.10 ( 21) 5 Nashville 7 12 1 23 31 3 -1.34 ( 24) 49.59 16 19 2 -0.21 ( 23) 6 Winnipeg 6 10 0 21 32 3 -2.01 ( 27) 49.66 15 22 3 0.01 ( 13) 7 Chicago 6 5 2 19 30 8 -2.54 ( 30) 49.36 13 25 6 -0.04 ( 19) 8 St Louis 5 13 0 19 34 4 -3.17 ( 31) 49.17 14 21 4 -0.03 ( 17) --- West CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Las Vegas 9 7 1 26 24 7 0.32 ( 14) 50.14 17 17 6 0.11 ( 11) 2 Seattle 11 6 2 26 25 5 -0.05 ( 16) 49.98 15 19 3 0.19 ( 8) 3 Edmonton 8 4 2 28 27 3 -0.12 ( 18) 50.03 20 23 1 0.13 ( 10) 4 Anaheim 8 7 2 24 26 6 -0.62 ( 20) 49.76 16 19 4 0.53 ( 2) 5 San Jose 7 11 1 25 27 3 -0.85 ( 22) 49.68 18 16 2 0.94 ( 1) 6 Los Angeles 3 8 5 19 27 11 -0.91 ( 23) 49.84 16 19 6 0.41 ( 3) 7 Calgary 8 7 1 21 31 4 -2.38 ( 28) 49.38 13 24 3 -0.06 ( 20) 8 Vancouver 4 8 2 14 37 6 -4.06 ( 32) 49.00 10 29 4 0.33 ( 5)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 1.07 2 Central 0.02 3 North -0.01 4 West -1.08PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.