Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 05-Oct-2025 08 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 4 2 0 2.95 50.98 4 2 Florida 3 4 0 2.60 50.88 6 3 St Louis 2 3 1 2.55 50.90 8 4 Los Angeles 5 2 0 2.49 50.65 3 5 Edmonton 4 4 0 2.26 50.47 1 6 Dallas 4 1 1 2.16 50.42 2 7 Tampa Bay 5 1 1 2.02 50.59 7 8 Toronto 2 4 0 1.81 50.39 5 9 Winnipeg 1 4 1 1.22 50.37 11 10 Washington 4 1 1 1.13 50.19 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Detroit 5 3 0 0.90 50.18 10 12 Las Vegas 3 4 0 0.53 50.05 13 13 Carolina 1 5 0 0.51 50.20 17 14 Vancouver 4 2 0 0.50 50.19 16 15 Ottawa 3 3 0 0.17 49.84 12 16 Pittsburgh 5 1 1 0.14 49.88 14 17 Montreal 3 2 1 0.10 49.93 15 18 Seattle 3 2 1 -0.15 50.03 20 19 Buffalo 3 3 0 -0.20 49.93 18 20 Columbus 2 5 0 -0.40 50.04 24 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Anaheim 4 3 0 -0.51 49.88 22 22 Calgary 2 4 2 -0.57 49.77 19 23 Arizona 2 5 0 -0.94 49.74 23 24 NY Rangers 2 4 0 -1.02 49.85 25 25 Minnesota 3 3 0 -1.02 49.58 21 26 New Jersey 3 2 2 -1.43 49.65 27 27 Nashville 3 2 1 -1.66 49.55 28 28 Boston 4 1 1 -1.95 49.48 29 29 NY Islanders 2 3 1 -2.12 49.28 26 30 Chicago 2 4 0 -2.84 49.36 30 31 Philadelphia 0 4 3 -3.94 49.02 31 32 San Jose 2 4 0 -5.28 48.72 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 05-Oct-2025 08 AM ET) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Florida 1 2 0 3 4 0 2.60 ( 2) 50.88 2 2 0 -0.58 ( 17) 2 Tampa Bay 2 1 0 5 1 1 2.02 ( 7) 50.59 3 0 1 -0.58 ( 16) 3 Toronto 2 4 0 2 4 0 1.81 ( 8) 50.39 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 30) 4 Detroit 3 1 0 5 3 0 0.90 ( 11) 50.18 2 2 0 -1.35 ( 23) 5 Ottawa 2 2 0 3 3 0 0.17 ( 15) 49.84 1 1 0 0.56 ( 9) 6 Montreal 2 2 0 3 2 1 0.10 ( 17) 49.93 1 0 1 -1.90 ( 24) 7 Buffalo 1 1 0 3 3 0 -0.20 ( 19) 49.93 2 2 0 -0.13 ( 15) 8 Boston 0 0 0 4 1 1 -1.95 ( 28) 49.48 4 1 1 -1.27 ( 22) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 3 0 1 4 1 1 1.13 ( 10) 50.19 1 1 0 -1.95 ( 26) 2 Carolina 0 0 0 1 5 0 0.51 ( 13) 50.20 1 5 0 0.99 ( 5) 3 Pittsburgh 1 1 0 5 1 1 0.14 ( 16) 49.88 4 0 1 0.30 ( 11) 4 Columbus 1 3 0 2 5 0 -0.40 ( 20) 50.04 1 2 0 0.71 ( 8) 5 NY Rangers 2 2 0 2 4 0 -1.02 ( 24) 49.85 0 2 0 -1.95 ( 25) 6 New Jersey 3 1 2 3 2 2 -1.43 ( 26) 49.65 0 1 0 0.17 ( 12) 7 NY Islanders 2 3 1 2 3 1 -2.12 ( 29) 49.28 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 29) 8 Philadelphia 0 2 2 0 4 3 -3.94 ( 31) 49.02 0 2 1 -1.27 ( 21) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 3 1 0 4 2 0 2.95 ( 1) 50.98 1 1 0 0.53 ( 10) 2 St Louis 1 2 1 2 3 1 2.55 ( 3) 50.90 1 1 0 -0.12 ( 14) 3 Dallas 4 1 1 4 1 1 2.16 ( 6) 50.42 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 27) 4 Winnipeg 0 2 0 1 4 1 1.22 ( 9) 50.37 1 2 1 0.84 ( 7) 5 Arizona 0 2 0 2 5 0 -0.94 ( 23) 49.74 2 3 0 -0.05 ( 13) 6 Minnesota 3 3 0 3 3 0 -1.02 ( 25) 49.58 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 28) 7 Nashville 0 0 0 3 2 1 -1.66 ( 27) 49.55 3 2 1 1.71 ( 1) 8 Chicago 2 2 0 2 4 0 -2.84 ( 30) 49.36 0 2 0 0.90 ( 6) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Los Angeles 4 1 0 5 2 0 2.49 ( 4) 50.65 1 1 0 -0.94 ( 19) 2 Edmonton 2 4 0 4 4 0 2.26 ( 5) 50.47 2 0 0 1.22 ( 4) 3 Las Vegas 1 3 0 3 4 0 0.53 ( 12) 50.05 2 1 0 1.65 ( 2) 4 Vancouver 4 2 0 4 2 0 0.50 ( 14) 50.19 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 31) 5 Seattle 3 2 1 3 2 1 -0.15 ( 18) 50.03 0 0 0 -99.00 ( 32) 6 Anaheim 3 3 0 4 3 0 -0.51 ( 21) 49.88 1 0 0 -0.94 ( 18) 7 Calgary 2 3 1 2 4 2 -0.57 ( 22) 49.77 0 1 1 1.22 ( 3) 8 San Jose 2 3 0 2 4 0 -5.28 ( 32) 48.72 0 1 0 -0.94 ( 20)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.68 2 Central 0.30 3 West -0.09 4 North -0.89PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 07-Oct-2025 Chicago Florida 5.4 HOME by 1.93 07-Oct-2025 Pittsburgh NY Rangers 5.7 HOME by 0.39 07-Oct-2025 Colorado Los Angeles 5.3 HOME by 0.09 08-Oct-2025 Montreal Toronto 5.9 HOME by 0.88 08-Oct-2025 Boston Washington 6.5 HOME by 1.13 08-Oct-2025 Calgary Edmonton 5.3 HOME by 1.12 08-Oct-2025 Los Angeles Las Vegas 5.1 AWAY by -0.18 09-Oct-2025 Chicago Boston 6.5 HOME by 0.53 09-Oct-2025 NY Rangers Buffalo 7.7 HOME by 0.49 09-Oct-2025 Montreal Detroit 6.1 HOME by 0.67 09-Oct-2025 Ottawa Tampa Bay 5.6 HOME by 1.17 09-Oct-2025 Philadelphia Florida 5.1 HOME by 2.28 09-Oct-2025 NY Islanders Pittsburgh 7.1 HOME by 1.02 09-Oct-2025 New Jersey Carolina 5.4 HOME by 0.97 09-Oct-2025 Minnesota St Louis 5.9 HOME by 1.73 09-Oct-2025 Columbus Nashville 5.5 AWAY by -0.07 09-Oct-2025 Dallas Winnipeg 5.1 HOME by 0.37 09-Oct-2025 Arizona Colorado 6.2 HOME by 1.65 09-Oct-2025 Calgary Vancouver 4.1 HOME by 0.83 09-Oct-2025 Las Vegas San Jose 5.3 AWAY by -0.92 09-Oct-2025 Anaheim Seattle 6.6 HOME by 0.57 11-Oct-2025 Los Angeles Winnipeg 4.5 HOME by 0.14 11-Oct-2025 St Louis Calgary 5.7 AWAY by -0.71 11-Oct-2025 Buffalo Boston 7.7 AWAY by -0.03 11-Oct-2025 Toronto Detroit 7.1 HOME by 0.21 11-Oct-2025 New Jersey Tampa Bay 5.6 HOME by 1.36 11-Oct-2025 Ottawa Florida 4.4 HOME by 1.46 11-Oct-2025 Washington NY Islanders 5.5 AWAY by -0.50 11-Oct-2025 NY Rangers Pittsburgh 7.7 HOME by 0.44 11-Oct-2025 Philadelphia Carolina 6.0 HOME by 1.60 11-Oct-2025 Montreal Chicago 6.3 AWAY by -0.15 11-Oct-2025 Arizona Nashville 6.7 HOME by 0.23 11-Oct-2025 Columbus Minnesota 5.2 AWAY by -0.05 11-Oct-2025 Dallas Colorado 5.8 HOME by 0.97 11-Oct-2025 Vancouver Edmonton 6.5 HOME by 0.70 11-Oct-2025 Anaheim San Jose 5.9 AWAY by -0.74 11-Oct-2025 Las Vegas Seattle 6.0 HOME by 0.39
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.