Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 07-Dec-2025 07 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 20 5 3 5.89 51.79 1 2 Washington 17 9 3 3.67 51.07 2 3 Dallas 17 8 4 3.33 50.90 3 4 Tampa Bay 16 12 0 2.28 50.57 4 5 Pittsburgh 14 9 3 1.71 50.37 5 6 Los Angeles 12 10 6 1.53 50.38 8 7 NY Islanders 15 10 4 1.46 50.27 6 8 Boston 15 13 2 1.33 50.24 7 9 Anaheim 14 11 3 1.16 50.26 9 10 Carolina 16 9 2 1.10 50.34 10 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 New Jersey 14 13 2 0.49 50.01 11 12 NY Rangers 14 15 1 0.09 50.08 15 13 Las Vegas 12 12 3 0.02 50.02 14 14 Montreal 13 10 4 -0.09 49.79 12 15 Detroit 13 12 4 -0.34 49.71 13 16 Minnesota 12 13 4 -0.37 49.90 16 17 Arizona 14 16 0 -0.56 49.99 22 18 Toronto 13 14 1 -0.59 49.97 21 19 Edmonton 13 14 2 -0.64 49.85 19 20 Florida 12 13 2 -0.70 49.80 18 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Seattle 11 12 3 -1.01 49.60 17 22 Chicago 12 14 2 -1.04 49.85 26 23 San Jose 12 15 2 -1.11 49.64 20 24 Philadelphia 10 11 5 -1.14 49.71 23 25 Winnipeg 13 13 2 -1.33 49.69 25 26 Ottawa 10 15 3 -1.54 49.55 24 27 Columbus 9 14 5 -1.58 49.67 27 28 Buffalo 9 17 2 -1.82 49.65 29 29 Vancouver 9 18 2 -1.89 49.61 28 30 Nashville 9 18 1 -2.46 49.30 30 31 St Louis 10 17 2 -2.61 49.28 31 32 Calgary 9 17 4 -3.25 49.16 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 07-Dec-2025 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 3 2 0 16 12 0 2.28 ( 4) 50.57 13 10 0 0.64 ( 4) 2 Boston 6 5 1 15 13 2 1.33 ( 8) 50.24 9 8 1 1.18 ( 1) 3 Montreal 4 3 1 13 10 4 -0.09 ( 14) 49.79 9 7 3 -0.08 ( 17) 4 Detroit 5 4 1 13 12 4 -0.34 ( 15) 49.71 8 8 3 -0.43 ( 27) 5 Toronto 3 6 1 13 14 1 -0.59 ( 18) 49.97 10 8 0 -0.30 ( 22) 6 Florida 2 4 0 12 13 2 -0.70 ( 20) 49.80 10 9 2 -0.20 ( 20) 7 Ottawa 4 4 0 10 15 3 -1.54 ( 26) 49.55 6 11 3 -0.07 ( 16) 8 Buffalo 5 4 0 9 17 2 -1.82 ( 28) 49.65 4 13 2 0.29 ( 11) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 6 2 1 17 9 3 3.67 ( 2) 51.07 11 7 2 0.10 ( 12) 2 Pittsburgh 5 1 3 14 9 3 1.71 ( 5) 50.37 9 8 0 -0.64 ( 30) 3 NY Islanders 4 4 2 15 10 4 1.46 ( 7) 50.27 11 6 2 0.73 ( 3) 4 Carolina 4 2 0 16 9 2 1.10 ( 10) 50.34 12 7 2 -0.14 ( 18) 5 New Jersey 1 5 2 14 13 2 0.49 ( 11) 50.01 13 8 0 0.60 ( 5) 6 NY Rangers 2 4 1 14 15 1 0.09 ( 12) 50.08 12 11 0 0.08 ( 13) 7 Philadelphia 2 2 3 10 11 5 -1.14 ( 24) 49.71 8 9 2 -0.99 ( 32) 8 Columbus 1 5 2 9 14 5 -1.58 ( 27) 49.67 8 9 3 -0.39 ( 24) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 3 1 2 20 5 3 5.89 ( 1) 51.79 17 4 1 0.04 ( 14) 2 Dallas 5 1 1 17 8 4 3.33 ( 3) 50.90 12 7 3 -0.28 ( 21) 3 Minnesota 4 3 1 12 13 4 -0.37 ( 16) 49.90 8 10 3 -0.17 ( 19) 4 Arizona 5 4 0 14 16 0 -0.56 ( 17) 49.99 9 12 0 -0.51 ( 29) 5 Chicago 2 4 0 12 14 2 -1.04 ( 22) 49.85 10 10 2 -0.32 ( 23) 6 Winnipeg 4 3 0 13 13 2 -1.33 ( 25) 49.69 9 10 2 -0.41 ( 25) 7 Nashville 1 7 0 9 18 1 -2.46 ( 30) 49.30 8 11 1 -0.42 ( 26) 8 St Louis 2 3 0 10 17 2 -2.61 ( 31) 49.28 8 14 2 -0.44 ( 28) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Los Angeles 2 0 3 12 10 6 1.53 ( 6) 50.38 10 10 3 0.30 ( 10) 2 Anaheim 3 2 1 14 11 3 1.16 ( 9) 50.26 11 9 2 0.34 ( 8) 3 Las Vegas 4 3 1 12 12 3 0.02 ( 13) 50.02 8 9 2 0.40 ( 7) 4 Edmonton 3 2 1 13 14 2 -0.64 ( 19) 49.85 10 12 1 0.31 ( 9) 5 Seattle 4 3 0 11 12 3 -1.01 ( 21) 49.60 7 9 3 0.03 ( 15) 6 San Jose 2 6 1 12 15 2 -1.11 ( 23) 49.64 10 9 1 0.96 ( 2) 7 Vancouver 3 4 0 9 18 2 -1.89 ( 29) 49.61 6 14 2 0.46 ( 6) 8 Calgary 2 3 1 9 17 4 -3.25 ( 32) 49.16 7 14 3 -0.78 ( 31)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 North 0.72 2 Central 0.11 3 East -0.18 4 West -0.65PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 07-Dec-2025 Colorado Philadelphia 5.4 AWAY by -2.00 07-Dec-2025 NY Islanders Florida 6.6 AWAY by -0.39 07-Dec-2025 San Jose Carolina 7.3 HOME by 0.78 07-Dec-2025 Pittsburgh Dallas 4.8 HOME by 0.61 07-Dec-2025 St Louis Montreal 6.0 HOME by 0.59 07-Dec-2025 Las Vegas NY Rangers 4.2 HOME by 0.15 07-Dec-2025 Columbus Washington 6.1 HOME by 1.48 07-Dec-2025 Chicago Anaheim 6.7 HOME by 0.49 08-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay Toronto 5.9 AWAY by -0.52 08-Dec-2025 Los Angeles Arizona 5.4 AWAY by -0.31 08-Dec-2025 Buffalo Calgary 5.3 AWAY by -0.40 08-Dec-2025 Detroit Vancouver 6.2 AWAY by -0.02 08-Dec-2025 Minnesota Seattle 4.2 AWAY by -0.21 09-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay Montreal 6.0 AWAY by -0.70 09-Dec-2025 New Jersey Ottawa 5.5 AWAY by -0.39 09-Dec-2025 Las Vegas NY Islanders 4.5 HOME by 0.33 09-Dec-2025 San Jose Philadelphia 6.5 HOME by 0.16 09-Dec-2025 Anaheim Pittsburgh 7.8 HOME by 0.19 09-Dec-2025 Columbus Carolina 6.9 HOME by 0.75 09-Dec-2025 Boston St Louis 6.9 AWAY by -0.88 09-Dec-2025 Dallas Winnipeg 6.3 AWAY by -1.13 09-Dec-2025 Buffalo Edmonton 7.7 HOME by 0.29 09-Dec-2025 Colorado Nashville 5.6 AWAY by -2.41 10-Dec-2025 NY Rangers Chicago 4.9 AWAY by -0.15 10-Dec-2025 Detroit Calgary 4.7 AWAY by -0.46 10-Dec-2025 Florida Arizona 6.5 HOME by 0.28 10-Dec-2025 Los Angeles Seattle 4.2 AWAY by -0.70 11-Dec-2025 San Jose Toronto 7.1 HOME by 0.41 11-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay New Jersey 5.3 AWAY by -0.47 11-Dec-2025 Anaheim NY Islanders 6.9 HOME by 0.09 11-Dec-2025 Las Vegas Philadelphia 4.8 AWAY by -0.22 11-Dec-2025 Montreal Pittsburgh 6.7 HOME by 0.66 11-Dec-2025 Carolina Washington 5.8 HOME by 0.81 11-Dec-2025 Ottawa Columbus 6.6 HOME by 0.20 11-Dec-2025 St Louis Nashville 5.4 HOME by 0.10 11-Dec-2025 Dallas Minnesota 5.8 AWAY by -0.92 11-Dec-2025 Boston Winnipeg 6.7 AWAY by -0.47 11-Dec-2025 Florida Colorado 6.7 HOME by 2.08 11-Dec-2025 Detroit Edmonton 7.1 HOME by 0.22 11-Dec-2025 Buffalo Vancouver 6.8 HOME by 0.04
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.