Ratings last updated Monday 02/14/22, 08:41 AM ET
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
1 Kansas City 14 6 0 3.29 57.81 1
2 Buffalo 12 7 0 3.10 61.46 5
3 LA Rams 16 5 0 2.41 55.29 2
4 Tampa Bay 14 5 0 2.09 55.60 4
5 Tennessee 12 6 0 2.08 55.53 3
6 San Francisco 12 8 0 1.91 54.86 6
7 New England 10 8 0 1.88 58.00 12
8 Cincinnati 13 8 0 1.53 53.69 7
9 Indianapolis 9 8 0 1.39 55.06 11
10 Dallas 12 6 0 1.37 55.37 13
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
11 Arizona 11 7 0 1.35 54.02 10
12 Green Bay 13 5 0 1.05 51.07 8
13 Baltimore 8 9 0 0.56 52.11 17
14 LA Chargers 9 8 0 0.28 50.45 16
15 Denver 7 10 0 0.26 52.80 20
16 Las Vegas 10 8 0 0.22 47.40 9
17 New Orleans 9 8 0 0.02 50.59 19
18 Miami 9 8 0 0.01 48.67 15
19 Cleveland 8 9 0 -0.08 49.06 18
20 Seattle 7 10 0 -0.20 51.03 22
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
21 Pittsburgh 9 8 1 -0.29 46.55 14
22 Minnesota 8 9 0 -0.57 48.86 21
23 Philadelphia 9 9 0 -0.62 48.73 23
24 Chicago 6 11 0 -1.42 44.98 24
25 Washington 7 10 0 -1.67 44.03 25
26 Houston 4 13 0 -2.20 44.15 27
27 Carolina 5 12 0 -2.48 44.88 29
28 NY Jets 4 13 0 -2.73 42.00 28
29 Atlanta 7 10 0 -2.88 40.02 26
30 Detroit 3 13 1 -3.02 42.60 30
31 Jacksonville 3 14 0 -3.16 42.07 31
32 NY Giants 4 13 0 -3.49 41.24 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based solely on wins and losses, similar to what
is used in college football.)
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Divisional rankings:
Rank Conference Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
1 NFC West 1.37
2 AFC West 1.01
3 AFC East 0.56
4 AFC North 0.43
5 AFC South -0.47
6 NFC South -0.81
7 NFC North -0.99
8 NFC East -1.10
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES
Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction
----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------
Current home field advantage is: 0.97
MAE for games to date: 10.37
These ratings fit to produce 0.61 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 1.95: 0.65
A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.67.
A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 6.91.
Above are some statistics about the ratings model. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games
played to date. This number is usually
larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.
Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game
winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent
of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.
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