Ratings last updated Tuesday 01/18/22, 07:56 PM ET
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
1 Buffalo 12 6 0 3.40 61.94 3
2 Kansas City 13 5 0 3.36 57.74 1
3 Tennessee 12 5 0 2.37 55.87 2
4 Tampa Bay 14 4 0 2.31 55.85 4
5 New England 10 8 0 1.98 58.13 11
6 San Francisco 11 7 0 1.83 54.87 6
7 LA Rams 13 5 0 1.80 54.99 7
8 Indianapolis 9 8 0 1.42 55.13 12
9 Dallas 12 6 0 1.38 55.38 13
10 Arizona 11 7 0 1.29 53.99 10
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
11 Green Bay 13 4 0 1.20 51.03 5
12 Cincinnati 11 7 0 1.13 53.01 9
13 Baltimore 8 9 0 0.51 51.99 16
14 LA Chargers 9 8 0 0.22 50.37 17
15 Denver 7 10 0 0.22 52.71 20
16 Las Vegas 10 8 0 0.15 47.30 8
17 New Orleans 9 8 0 0.11 50.69 19
18 Miami 9 8 0 0.06 48.74 15
19 Cleveland 8 9 0 -0.11 48.96 18
20 Seattle 7 10 0 -0.27 51.00 23
Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS
21 Pittsburgh 9 8 1 -0.31 46.48 14
22 Philadelphia 9 9 0 -0.59 48.77 21
23 Minnesota 8 9 0 -0.64 48.78 22
24 Chicago 6 11 0 -1.44 44.95 24
25 Washington 7 10 0 -1.64 44.03 25
26 Houston 4 13 0 -2.16 44.23 27
27 Carolina 5 12 0 -2.41 44.96 29
28 NY Jets 4 13 0 -2.65 42.08 28
29 Atlanta 7 10 0 -2.80 40.12 26
30 Detroit 3 13 1 -3.08 42.55 31
31 Jacksonville 3 14 0 -3.15 42.10 30
32 NY Giants 4 13 0 -3.48 41.25 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based solely on wins and losses, similar to what
is used in college football.)
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Divisional rankings:
Rank Conference Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
1 NFC West 1.16
2 AFC West 0.99
3 AFC East 0.70
4 AFC North 0.31
5 AFC South -0.38
6 NFC South -0.70
7 NFC North -0.99
8 NFC East -1.09
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES
Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction
----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- --------------
22-Jan-2022 Cincinnati Tennessee 39.5 HOME by 3.86
22-Jan-2022 San Francisco Green Bay 41.8 AWAY by -2.84
23-Jan-2022 LA Rams Tampa Bay 52.0 HOME by 1.86
23-Jan-2022 Buffalo Kansas City 48.6 AWAY by -3.20
Current home field advantage is: 1.00
MAE for games to date: 10.50
These ratings fit to produce 0.62 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 2.00: 0.66
A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.78.
A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 7.42.
Above are some statistics about the ratings model. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games
played to date. This number is usually
larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.
Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game
winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent
of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.
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