National Football League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in home field advantage (on the right). Predictions are already calculated for upcoming games, on the right.


Ratings last updated Monday 10/19/20, 06:00 PM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Baltimore 5 1 0 4.11 65.55 2 2 Kansas City 4 1 0 3.40 61.72 3 3 Tennessee 5 0 0 2.85 57.51 1 4 Seattle 5 0 0 2.00 54.06 5 5 Pittsburgh 5 0 0 1.90 52.69 4 6 San Francisco 3 3 0 1.66 57.49 13 7 New Orleans 3 2 0 1.58 56.42 12 8 Tampa Bay 4 2 0 1.40 54.67 9 9 Green Bay 4 1 0 1.30 52.04 6 10 LA Rams 4 2 0 1.26 53.57 8 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Buffalo 4 1 0 0.80 51.01 10 12 New England 2 3 0 0.46 52.99 18 13 Chicago 5 1 0 0.41 47.76 7 14 Cleveland 4 2 0 0.22 47.73 11 15 Arizona 3 2 0 0.14 49.19 14 16 Indianapolis 4 2 0 -0.01 49.10 15 17 Denver 2 3 0 -0.12 49.18 17 18 Atlanta 1 5 0 -0.28 52.66 23 19 Miami 3 3 0 -0.42 48.74 19 20 Dallas 2 3 0 -0.52 50.64 22 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Houston 1 5 0 -0.54 48.80 21 22 Minnesota 1 5 0 -0.61 50.87 24 23 Las Vegas 3 2 0 -0.74 45.34 16 24 Philadelphia 1 4 1 -0.82 49.81 25 25 LA Chargers 1 4 0 -1.05 49.39 27 26 Carolina 3 3 0 -1.73 41.30 20 27 Cincinnati 1 4 1 -1.98 44.06 28 28 Detroit 2 3 0 -1.98 42.90 26 29 NY Jets 0 6 0 -2.80 42.64 30 30 NY Giants 1 5 0 -3.09 41.33 31 31 Jacksonville 1 5 0 -3.22 39.42 29 32 Washington 1 5 0 -3.59 39.42 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 19-Oct-2020 Kansas City Buffalo 41.5 AWAY by -10.11 19-Oct-2020 Arizona Dallas 63.9 HOME by 2.06 22-Oct-2020 NY Giants Philadelphia 42.1 HOME by 9.08 25-Oct-2020 Detroit Atlanta 50.6 HOME by 10.36 25-Oct-2020 Cleveland Cincinnati 51.0 AWAY by -3.06 25-Oct-2020 Green Bay Houston 47.9 AWAY by -2.64 25-Oct-2020 Carolina New Orleans 56.1 HOME by 15.72 25-Oct-2020 Buffalo NY Jets 39.8 AWAY by -7.77 25-Oct-2020 Dallas Washington 51.0 AWAY by -10.62 25-Oct-2020 Seattle Arizona 49.0 AWAY by -4.27 25-Oct-2020 Kansas City Denver 37.5 AWAY by -11.94 25-Oct-2020 San Francisco New England 39.1 AWAY by -3.90 25-Oct-2020 Tampa Bay Las Vegas 50.7 AWAY by -8.73 25-Oct-2020 Pittsburgh Tennessee 46.8 HOME by 5.43 25-Oct-2020 Jacksonville LA Chargers 38.5 HOME by 10.57 26-Oct-2020 Chicago LA Rams 29.8 HOME by 6.42 29-Oct-2020 Atlanta Carolina 47.1 AWAY by -10.75 01-Nov-2020 New England Buffalo 38.2 AWAY by -1.37 01-Nov-2020 Tennessee Cincinnati 47.1 AWAY by -12.84 01-Nov-2020 Las Vegas Cleveland 55.5 HOME by 2.99 01-Nov-2020 Indianapolis Detroit 56.3 AWAY by -5.60 01-Nov-2020 Minnesota Green Bay 44.1 HOME by 1.77 01-Nov-2020 NY Jets Kansas City 45.9 HOME by 19.69 01-Nov-2020 LA Rams Miami 59.1 AWAY by -4.23 01-Nov-2020 New Orleans Chicago 35.2 AWAY by -8.06 01-Nov-2020 San Francisco Seattle 62.1 AWAY by -2.82 01-Nov-2020 Dallas Philadelphia 39.9 AWAY by -0.23 01-Nov-2020 Pittsburgh Baltimore 32.1 HOME by 13.47 01-Nov-2020 LA Chargers Denver 37.7 HOME by 0.40 02-Nov-2020 Tampa Bay NY Giants 49.9 AWAY by -12.74

Current home field advantage is: 0.60 MAE for games to date: 8.94 These ratings fit to produce 0.72 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 1.21: 0.74 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -6.31. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 8.55.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


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