Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings
Welcome to 2026! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (consistently about 2.5 points).
How 2026 will work: I discovered that in previous years, using the preseason games actually hurt the early-season predictions. So this year, those are nowhere to be found. Let's see if it helps.
The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.
This year, the page has gotten rid of the Javascript and just has all of the ratings elements listed here on one page. Should not have any impact on scrapers. Let me know if you can't find anything.
Ratings
Ratings last updated Mon 21-Sep-2026 07 am ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Seattle 2 0 5.10 66.22 1 2 LA Rams 0 1 3.70 62.44 7 3 New England 1 1 2.94 59.43 3 4 Jacksonville 1 1 2.32 57.77 10 5 Buffalo 2 0 2.02 56.16 2 6 San Francisco 2 0 1.75 55.42 6 7 Baltimore 1 1 1.63 55.55 14 8 Houston 0 2 1.45 54.81 11 9 Chicago 1 1 1.22 53.80 8 10 Denver 1 1 0.65 51.46 5 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Minnesota 2 0 0.60 51.27 4 12 Cincinnati 2 0 0.37 51.04 12 13 Green Bay 1 1 0.14 50.26 13 14 Philadelphia 2 0 0.09 49.83 9 15 Kansas City 2 0 0.03 50.11 17 16 Detroit 1 1 -0.05 49.93 19 17 Carolina 1 1 -0.15 49.40 15 18 Pittsburgh 1 1 -0.18 49.36 16 19 Indianapolis 0 2 -0.48 49.38 30 20 NY Giants 1 0 -0.48 48.35 18 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 New Orleans 1 1 -0.69 47.91 22 22 LA Chargers 0 2 -0.75 47.80 24 23 Tampa Bay 0 2 -1.03 47.41 29 24 Atlanta 0 2 -1.27 46.15 26 25 Cleveland 1 1 -1.42 45.32 21 26 Dallas 1 1 -1.71 44.38 23 27 Arizona 1 1 -1.99 43.79 28 28 Miami 0 2 -2.06 43.50 27 29 Las Vegas 2 0 -2.68 40.81 20 30 NY Jets 1 1 -2.83 40.57 25 31 Tennessee 0 2 -2.93 40.96 32 32 Washington 0 2 -3.33 39.42 31
Predictions
Score predictions for the next week or two:
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Sep-2026 NY Giants LA Rams 59.0 HOME by 15.75 24-Sep-2026 Atlanta Green Bay 37.2 HOME by 5.77 27-Sep-2026 Carolina Cleveland 31.6 AWAY by -2.42 27-Sep-2026 Cincinnati Pittsburgh 46.6 AWAY by -0.02 27-Sep-2026 Houston Indianapolis 45.3 AWAY by -3.77 27-Sep-2026 Kansas City Miami 39.3 AWAY by -4.95 27-Sep-2026 LA Chargers Buffalo 48.1 HOME by 10.02 27-Sep-2026 New England Jacksonville 46.0 HOME by 0.00 27-Sep-2026 NY Jets Detroit 54.4 HOME by 11.02 27-Sep-2026 Seattle Washington 39.9 AWAY by -25.13 27-Sep-2026 Tennessee NY Giants 49.6 HOME by 9.05 27-Sep-2026 Arizona San Francisco 50.8 HOME by 13.29 27-Sep-2026 Minnesota Tampa Bay 35.5 AWAY by -2.19 27-Sep-2026 Baltimore Dallas 60.6 AWAY by -9.50 27-Sep-2026 Las Vegas New Orleans 28.8 HOME by 8.77 27-Sep-2026 LA Rams Denver 53.1 AWAY by -9.32 28-Sep-2026 Philadelphia Chicago 30.1 HOME by 5.64 01-Oct-2026 Pittsburgh Cleveland 35.2 AWAY by -2.37 04-Oct-2026 Indianapolis Washington 56.5 Indi by -9.95 04-Oct-2026 Arizona NY Giants 46.4 HOME by 6.22 04-Oct-2026 Dallas Houston 58.8 HOME by 12.09 04-Oct-2026 Green Bay Tampa Bay 52.7 AWAY by -1.18 04-Oct-2026 Jacksonville Cincinnati 55.1 AWAY by -5.07 04-Oct-2026 LA Rams Philadelphia 44.7 AWAY by -10.95 04-Oct-2026 New England Buffalo 54.1 AWAY by -1.60 04-Oct-2026 NY Jets Chicago 37.5 HOME by 14.89 04-Oct-2026 Tennessee Baltimore 41.7 HOME by 16.25 04-Oct-2026 Miami Minnesota 32.7 HOME by 9.43 04-Oct-2026 Denver San Francisco 44.2 HOME by 5.62 04-Oct-2026 Kansas City Las Vegas 32.4 AWAY by -7.64 04-Oct-2026 LA Chargers Seattle 36.5 HOME by 20.09 04-Oct-2026 Detroit Carolina 56.8 HOME by 1.14 05-Oct-2026 Atlanta New Orleans 36.6 HOME by 3.42
Divisions
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by division record. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
--- AFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 New England 0 0 1 1 2.94 ( 3) 59.43 1 1 2.46 ( 2) 2 Buffalo 0 0 2 0 2.02 ( 5) 56.16 2 0 0.70 ( 9) 3 Miami 0 0 0 2 -2.06 ( 28) 43.50 0 2 -0.46 ( 16) 4 NY Jets 0 0 1 1 -2.83 ( 30) 40.57 1 1 -1.40 ( 22) --- AFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Baltimore 0 0 1 1 1.63 ( 7) 55.55 1 1 -0.58 ( 19) 2 Cincinnati 0 0 2 0 0.37 ( 12) 51.04 2 0 0.21 ( 12) 3 Pittsburgh 0 0 1 1 -0.18 ( 18) 49.36 1 1 0.84 ( 6) 4 Cleveland 0 0 1 1 -1.42 ( 25) 45.32 1 1 0.65 ( 11) --- AFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Jacksonville 0 0 1 1 2.32 ( 4) 57.77 1 1 -0.39 ( 15) 2 Houston 0 0 0 2 1.45 ( 8) 54.81 0 2 1.19 ( 5) 3 Indianapolis 0 0 0 2 -0.48 ( 19) 49.38 0 2 0.83 ( 7) 4 Tennessee 0 0 0 2 -2.93 ( 31) 40.96 0 2 -1.37 ( 21) --- AFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 0 1 1 1 0.65 ( 10) 51.46 1 0 2.32 ( 3) 2 Kansas City 1 0 2 0 0.03 ( 15) 50.11 1 0 -0.48 ( 17) 3 LA Chargers 0 1 0 2 -0.75 ( 22) 47.80 0 1 -1.99 ( 23) 4 Las Vegas 1 0 2 0 -2.68 ( 29) 40.81 1 0 -2.06 ( 24) --- NFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Philadelphia 1 0 2 0 0.09 ( 14) 49.83 1 0 -2.93 ( 27) 2 NY Giants 1 0 1 0 -0.48 ( 20) 48.35 0 0 -99.00 ( 30) 3 Dallas 1 1 1 1 -1.71 ( 26) 44.38 0 0 -99.00 ( 28) 4 Washington 0 2 0 2 -3.33 ( 32) 39.42 0 0 -99.00 ( 32) --- NFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Chicago 0 1 1 1 1.22 ( 9) 53.80 1 0 -0.15 ( 13) 2 Minnesota 2 0 2 0 0.60 ( 11) 51.27 0 0 -99.00 ( 29) 3 Green Bay 0 1 1 1 0.14 ( 13) 50.26 1 0 -2.83 ( 26) 4 Detroit 0 0 1 1 -0.05 ( 16) 49.93 1 1 0.66 ( 10) --- NFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Carolina 1 0 1 1 -0.15 ( 17) 49.40 0 1 1.22 ( 4) 2 New Orleans 0 0 1 1 -0.69 ( 21) 47.91 1 1 0.79 ( 8) 3 Tampa Bay 0 0 0 2 -1.03 ( 23) 47.41 0 2 -0.53 ( 18) 4 Atlanta 0 1 0 2 -1.27 ( 24) 46.15 0 1 -0.18 ( 14) --- NFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Seattle 1 0 2 0 5.10 ( 1) 66.22 1 0 2.94 ( 1) 2 LA Rams 0 1 0 1 3.70 ( 2) 62.44 0 0 -99.00 ( 31) 3 San Francisco 1 0 2 0 1.75 ( 6) 55.42 1 0 -2.06 ( 25) 4 Arizona 0 1 1 1 -1.99 ( 27) 43.79 1 0 -0.75 ( 20)
Division Rankings
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 NFC West 2.14 2 NFC North 0.48 3 AFC North 0.10 4 AFC South 0.09 5 AFC East 0.02 6 AFC West -0.69 7 NFC South -0.78 8 NFC East -1.36
Details
Links to Original Text FilesFeel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NFL in 2023-24, my system predicted 62.8% of game winners correct. By comparison, the ESPN FPI (yep, they run it for pro too) got 64.4%. That is a difference, over an entire season, of just four more games correct.
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
Although the system is comparable to other computer systems (FPI, Sagarin, and several others), the midweek/updated Vegas line predicted 66.3% of last year's NFL winners correctly. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.