Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings
Welcome! I've redecorated slightly, but everything is still here. Just click on the tab you need. If you are scraping the page, you should still be able to get to everything, too. Let me know if not.
This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (consistently about 2.5 points).
The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.
I wouldn't rely too much on early-season results, which are based almost entirely on last year's games and preseason games. Wait until 3-4 weeks into the season, at least.
Ratings last updated 17-Sep-2024 08:22 EST Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 San Francisco 1 1 2.95 58.29 7 2 Minnesota 2 0 2.19 54.64 1 3 Baltimore 0 2 2.18 57.53 24 4 Chicago 1 1 2.13 54.65 2 5 Detroit 1 1 2.08 54.98 4 6 New Orleans 2 0 2.02 55.81 13 7 Kansas City 2 0 1.97 55.25 8 8 Buffalo 2 0 1.56 54.15 11 9 Houston 2 0 1.56 53.07 3 10 Green Bay 1 1 1.49 53.60 6 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Tampa Bay 2 0 1.18 52.29 5 12 Dallas 1 1 1.16 53.99 20 13 Jacksonville 0 2 1.02 53.01 14 14 Denver 0 2 0.51 50.69 9 15 Las Vegas 1 1 0.34 51.57 21 16 Miami 1 1 0.26 50.67 15 17 LA Chargers 2 0 -0.03 50.01 18 18 Pittsburgh 2 0 -0.09 50.03 19 19 Seattle 2 0 -0.18 48.60 10 20 LA Rams 0 2 -0.49 49.04 22 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Cleveland 1 1 -0.58 48.77 23 22 Indianapolis 0 2 -0.62 48.78 25 23 Philadelphia 1 1 -0.80 47.36 16 24 Cincinnati 0 2 -0.88 49.08 29 25 Tennessee 0 2 -0.94 47.03 17 26 NY Jets 1 1 -1.72 43.96 12 27 Atlanta 1 1 -2.05 45.11 27 28 Arizona 1 1 -2.07 45.40 31 29 New England 1 1 -2.80 42.72 26 30 NY Giants 0 2 -3.06 42.11 28 31 Carolina 0 2 -3.90 39.74 32 32 Washington 1 1 -4.37 38.08 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by division record. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NFL Computer Ratings (Last updated 17-Sep-2024 08:22 EST) --- AFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Buffalo 1 0 2 0 1.56 ( 8) 54.15 1 0 -2.07 ( 31) 2 Miami 0 1 1 1 0.26 ( 16) 50.67 1 0 1.02 ( 11) 3 NY Jets 0 0 1 1 -1.72 ( 26) 43.96 1 1 1.00 ( 12) 4 New England 0 0 1 1 -2.80 ( 29) 42.72 1 1 -0.53 ( 26) --- AFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Baltimore 0 0 0 2 2.18 ( 3) 57.53 0 2 1.15 ( 9) 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 2 0 -0.09 ( 18) 50.03 2 0 -0.77 ( 28) 3 Cleveland 0 0 1 1 -0.58 ( 21) 48.77 1 1 1.09 ( 10) 4 Cincinnati 0 0 0 2 -0.88 ( 24) 49.08 0 2 -0.42 ( 24) --- AFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 1 0 2 0 1.56 ( 9) 53.07 1 0 2.13 ( 3) 2 Jacksonville 0 0 0 2 1.02 ( 13) 53.01 0 2 -0.16 ( 22) 3 Indianapolis 0 1 0 2 -0.62 ( 22) 48.78 0 1 1.49 ( 6) 4 Tennessee 0 0 0 2 -0.94 ( 25) 47.03 0 2 0.20 ( 18) --- AFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Kansas City 0 0 2 0 1.97 ( 7) 55.25 2 0 0.65 ( 14) 2 Denver 0 0 0 2 0.51 ( 14) 50.69 0 2 -0.13 ( 21) 3 Las Vegas 0 1 1 1 0.34 ( 15) 51.57 1 0 2.18 ( 2) 4 LA Chargers 1 0 2 0 -0.03 ( 17) 50.01 1 0 -3.90 ( 32) --- NFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Dallas 0 0 1 1 1.16 ( 12) 53.99 1 1 0.72 ( 13) 2 Philadelphia 0 0 1 1 -0.80 ( 23) 47.36 1 1 -0.28 ( 23) 3 NY Giants 0 1 0 2 -3.06 ( 30) 42.11 0 1 2.19 ( 1) 4 Washington 1 0 1 1 -4.37 ( 32) 38.08 0 1 1.18 ( 7) --- NFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota 0 0 2 0 2.19 ( 2) 54.64 2 0 -0.05 ( 20) 2 Chicago 0 0 1 1 2.13 ( 4) 54.65 1 1 0.31 ( 16) 3 Detroit 0 0 1 1 2.08 ( 5) 54.98 1 1 0.34 ( 15) 4 Green Bay 0 0 1 1 1.49 ( 10) 53.60 1 1 -0.71 ( 27) --- NFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 New Orleans 1 0 2 0 2.02 ( 6) 55.81 1 0 1.16 ( 8) 2 Tampa Bay 0 0 2 0 1.18 ( 11) 52.29 2 0 -1.15 ( 29) 3 Atlanta 0 0 1 1 -2.05 ( 27) 45.11 1 1 -0.44 ( 25) 4 Carolina 0 1 0 2 -3.90 ( 31) 39.74 0 1 -0.03 ( 19) --- NFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 San Francisco 0 0 1 1 2.95 ( 1) 58.29 1 1 0.24 ( 17) 2 Seattle 0 0 2 0 -0.18 ( 19) 48.60 2 0 -1.15 ( 30) 3 LA Rams 0 1 0 2 -0.49 ( 20) 49.04 0 1 2.08 ( 4) 4 Arizona 1 0 1 1 -2.07 ( 28) 45.40 0 1 1.56 ( 5)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 NFC North 1.97 2 AFC West 0.69 3 AFC South 0.25 4 AFC North 0.16 5 NFC West 0.05 6 AFC East -0.67 7 NFC South -0.69 8 NFC East -1.77PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 19-Sep-2024 New England NY Jets 29.7 HOME by 3.58 22-Sep-2024 NY Giants Cleveland 32.3 HOME by 9.00 22-Sep-2024 Chicago Indianapolis 49.6 AWAY by -3.53 22-Sep-2024 Houston Minnesota 44.2 HOME by 3.90 22-Sep-2024 Philadelphia New Orleans 47.9 HOME by 10.79 22-Sep-2024 LA Chargers Pittsburgh 33.6 HOME by 2.36 22-Sep-2024 Denver Tampa Bay 42.5 HOME by 3.94 22-Sep-2024 Green Bay Tennessee 44.4 AWAY by -4.24 22-Sep-2024 Carolina Las Vegas 41.7 HOME by 14.17 22-Sep-2024 Miami Seattle 53.6 HOME by 0.26 22-Sep-2024 Detroit Arizona 57.1 AWAY by -7.25 22-Sep-2024 Baltimore Dallas 56.5 AWAY by -1.21 22-Sep-2024 San Francisco LA Rams 40.7 AWAY by -6.91 22-Sep-2024 Kansas City Atlanta 43.0 AWAY by -7.80 23-Sep-2024 Jacksonville Buffalo 50.5 HOME by 3.48 23-Sep-2024 Washington Cincinnati 43.0 HOME by 13.34 26-Sep-2024 Dallas NY Giants 29.5 AWAY by -9.54 29-Sep-2024 New Orleans Atlanta 40.3 AWAY by -8.37 29-Sep-2024 Cincinnati Carolina 37.9 AWAY by -7.00 29-Sep-2024 LA Rams Chicago 39.2 HOME by 7.94 29-Sep-2024 Minnesota Green Bay 34.2 HOME by 1.30 29-Sep-2024 Jacksonville Houston 44.5 HOME by 2.40 29-Sep-2024 Pittsburgh Indianapolis 42.9 HOME by 1.09 29-Sep-2024 Denver NY Jets 41.5 AWAY by -4.39 29-Sep-2024 Philadelphia Tampa Bay 34.9 HOME by 7.27 29-Sep-2024 Washington Arizona 54.4 HOME by 9.66 29-Sep-2024 New England San Francisco 39.4 HOME by 17.90 29-Sep-2024 Cleveland Las Vegas 52.3 HOME by 5.13 29-Sep-2024 Kansas City LA Chargers 37.9 AWAY by -2.90 29-Sep-2024 Buffalo Baltimore 45.2 HOME by 5.71 30-Sep-2024 Tennessee Miami 43.4 HOME by 5.98 30-Sep-2024 Seattle Detroit 46.0 HOME by 8.71 03-Oct-2024 Tampa Bay Atlanta 40.3 AWAY by -4.85
Original Text Files
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- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NFL in 2023-24, my system predicted 62.8% of game winners correct. By comparison, the ESPN FPI (yep, they run it for pro too) got 64.4%. That is a difference, over an entire season, of just four more games correct.
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
Although the system is comparable to other computer systems (FPI, Sagarin, and several others), the updated Vegas line predicted 66.3% of last year's NFL winners correctly. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.