2018-19 National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Early-season predictions are based almost entirely on last year's games and the preseason, so use those with extreme caution.


Ratings last updated Saturday 04/20/19, 01:52 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Tampa Bay 62 24 4.60 51.00 1 2 NY Islanders 52 34 2.25 50.44 2 3 Boston 51 36 2.19 50.50 5 4 Carolina 48 38 2.15 50.47 3 5 Calgary 51 36 1.85 50.54 9 6 Columbus 51 35 1.80 50.31 4 7 Toronto 49 38 1.62 50.44 10 8 Washington 50 36 1.55 50.28 6 9 St Louis 48 39 1.51 50.27 7 10 Las Vegas 46 41 1.28 50.39 14 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Nashville 49 37 1.23 50.22 8 12 Winnipeg 49 38 1.16 50.27 11 13 San Jose 48 39 0.97 50.25 13 14 Dallas 45 41 0.78 50.18 15 15 Montreal 44 38 0.76 50.15 12 16 Pittsburgh 44 42 0.76 50.31 16 17 Colorado 42 45 0.25 50.15 17 18 Arizona 39 43 -0.62 49.86 18 19 Florida 36 46 -0.83 49.86 20 20 Philadelphia 37 45 -1.12 49.68 19 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Chicago 36 46 -1.19 49.73 21 22 Minnesota 37 45 -1.28 49.75 23 23 Edmonton 35 47 -1.40 49.69 22 24 Detroit 32 50 -1.69 49.59 24 25 Anaheim 35 47 -2.25 49.35 25 26 Vancouver 35 47 -2.31 49.45 26 27 Buffalo 33 49 -2.34 49.51 28 28 NY Rangers 32 50 -2.37 49.49 27 29 New Jersey 31 51 -2.73 49.40 29 30 Ottawa 29 53 -3.20 49.30 31 31 Los Angeles 31 51 -3.35 49.17 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 20-Apr-2019 Carolina Washington 5.9 HOME by 0.11 20-Apr-2019 Winnipeg St Louis 6.3 HOME by 0.30 20-Apr-2019 Dallas Nashville 4.2 HOME by 0.35 21-Apr-2019 Boston Toronto 6.2 HOME by 0.24 21-Apr-2019 Calgary Colorado 5.6 AWAY by -0.08 21-Apr-2019 San Jose Las Vegas 6.9 HOME by 0.45 22-Apr-2019 Toronto Boston 6.0 HOME by 0.37 22-Apr-2019 Las Vegas San Jose 6.8 HOME by 0.16 22-Apr-2019 Colorado Calgary 7.5 HOME by 0.69 22-Apr-2019 Nashville Dallas 5.1 HOME by 0.26 22-Apr-2019 St Louis Winnipeg 5.7 HOME by 0.30 22-Apr-2019 Washington Carolina 6.2 HOME by 0.50

Current home field advantage is: 0.30 MAE for games to date: 2.09 These ratings fit to produce 0.59 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.60: 0.66 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.58. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.83.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats