2018-19 National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Early-season predictions are based almost entirely on last year's games and the preseason, so use those with extreme caution.


Ratings last updated Wednesday 12/12/18, 09:27 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Toronto 21 10 3.34 50.81 1 2 Tampa Bay 24 8 3.02 50.70 2 3 Washington 18 12 2.61 50.87 5 4 Winnipeg 19 11 2.05 50.62 7 5 Las Vegas 17 15 1.99 50.62 9 6 Calgary 19 12 1.92 50.58 8 7 Edmonton 17 14 1.92 50.42 3 8 Nashville 20 11 1.71 50.34 4 9 Boston 17 14 1.62 50.38 6 10 Dallas 16 14 1.28 50.33 11 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Colorado 17 14 1.25 50.31 10 12 Buffalo 18 13 0.65 50.02 12 13 Pittsburgh 13 16 0.50 50.45 21 14 Carolina 13 16 0.47 50.18 14 15 Minnesota 16 14 0.22 50.16 17 16 San Jose 16 16 0.11 50.10 16 17 Detroit 14 18 0.01 49.86 13 18 Montreal 15 16 -0.14 49.96 15 19 NY Islanders 14 15 -0.17 49.98 18 20 Arizona 13 16 -0.58 49.91 22 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Columbus 16 14 -0.87 49.64 19 22 NY Rangers 14 16 -1.30 49.56 23 23 Anaheim 16 16 -1.49 49.32 20 24 St Louis 11 18 -1.63 49.61 25 25 Florida 11 18 -1.84 49.60 27 26 Philadelphia 12 16 -1.87 49.44 24 27 New Jersey 10 19 -2.12 49.62 29 28 Ottawa 13 19 -2.35 49.33 26 29 Vancouver 14 19 -2.50 49.30 28 30 Los Angeles 11 21 -3.91 48.94 30 31 Chicago 9 23 -3.93 49.06 31
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 12-Dec-2018 Las Vegas NY Islanders 5.2 AWAY by -0.28 12-Dec-2018 Pittsburgh Chicago 6.6 AWAY by -1.03 12-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Calgary 8.8 HOME by 1.50 12-Dec-2018 Dallas Anaheim 4.2 AWAY by -0.65 13-Dec-2018 Arizona Buffalo 5.0 HOME by 0.46 13-Dec-2018 Los Angeles Columbus 5.8 HOME by 1.06 13-Dec-2018 Carolina Montreal 5.5 HOME by 0.14 13-Dec-2018 Toronto Tampa Bay 7.3 HOME by 0.25 13-Dec-2018 Florida Minnesota 7.3 HOME by 0.92 13-Dec-2018 Vancouver Nashville 5.6 HOME by 1.40 13-Dec-2018 Edmonton Winnipeg 6.1 HOME by 0.56 13-Dec-2018 Dallas San Jose 4.6 HOME by 0.13 14-Dec-2018 Las Vegas New Jersey 5.4 AWAY by -0.65 14-Dec-2018 Arizona NY Rangers 5.0 HOME by 0.00 14-Dec-2018 Boston Pittsburgh 5.3 HOME by 0.43 14-Dec-2018 Washington Carolina 5.5 AWAY by -0.33 14-Dec-2018 Ottawa Detroit 7.3 HOME by 0.89 14-Dec-2018 Colorado St Louis 7.4 AWAY by -0.34 14-Dec-2018 Winnipeg Chicago 6.7 AWAY by -1.19 14-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Edmonton 7.1 HOME by 1.33 15-Dec-2018 Calgary Minnesota 5.6 AWAY by -0.07 15-Dec-2018 Anaheim Columbus 6.3 HOME by 0.67 15-Dec-2018 Toronto Florida 7.3 AWAY by -0.85 15-Dec-2018 Ottawa Montreal 7.7 HOME by 0.99 15-Dec-2018 Detroit NY Islanders 6.2 HOME by 0.48 15-Dec-2018 Los Angeles Pittsburgh 5.3 HOME by 1.87 15-Dec-2018 Buffalo Washington 6.6 HOME by 1.21 15-Dec-2018 New Jersey Nashville 6.1 HOME by 1.08 15-Dec-2018 Dallas Colorado 4.7 HOME by 0.33 15-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Vancouver 7.5 HOME by 0.21 16-Dec-2018 Arizona Carolina 4.9 HOME by 0.62 16-Dec-2018 Las Vegas NY Rangers 5.3 AWAY by -0.71 16-Dec-2018 Calgary St Louis 5.8 AWAY by -0.62 16-Dec-2018 Buffalo Boston 5.9 HOME by 0.72 16-Dec-2018 San Jose Chicago 7.1 AWAY by -0.68 16-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Winnipeg 6.4 HOME by 0.28 16-Dec-2018 Edmonton Vancouver 6.6 AWAY by -0.76 17-Dec-2018 Las Vegas Columbus 6.7 AWAY by -0.63 17-Dec-2018 Anaheim Pittsburgh 5.8 HOME by 1.49 17-Dec-2018 Boston Montreal 5.2 AWAY by -0.07 17-Dec-2018 Nashville Ottawa 6.3 AWAY by -0.65 17-Dec-2018 NY Islanders Colorado 6.1 HOME by 0.68 18-Dec-2018 Florida Buffalo 6.6 HOME by 0.78 18-Dec-2018 Toronto New Jersey 6.6 AWAY by -0.83 18-Dec-2018 Anaheim NY Rangers 5.0 HOME by 0.59 18-Dec-2018 Detroit Philadelphia 6.7 AWAY by -0.06 18-Dec-2018 San Jose Minnesota 7.2 HOME by 0.42 18-Dec-2018 Nashville Chicago 6.3 AWAY by -0.92 18-Dec-2018 Calgary Dallas 5.9 HOME by 0.10 18-Dec-2018 NY Islanders Arizona 5.4 HOME by 0.29 18-Dec-2018 St Louis Edmonton 5.4 HOME by 1.16 18-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Vancouver 6.9 AWAY by -1.04 18-Dec-2018 Winnipeg Los Angeles 5.9 AWAY by -1.32 19-Dec-2018 Pittsburgh Washington 6.9 HOME by 0.78 19-Dec-2018 Montreal Colorado 6.2 HOME by 0.71 20-Dec-2018 Anaheim Boston 5.2 HOME by 1.42 20-Dec-2018 Detroit Carolina 6.3 HOME by 0.67 20-Dec-2018 New Jersey Columbus 7.6 HOME by 0.38 20-Dec-2018 Nashville Philadelphia 6.0 AWAY by -0.54 20-Dec-2018 Minnesota Pittsburgh 5.7 HOME by 0.65 20-Dec-2018 Florida Toronto 6.8 HOME by 1.57 20-Dec-2018 Chicago Dallas 7.2 HOME by 1.63 20-Dec-2018 Montreal Arizona 5.6 HOME by 0.31 20-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Calgary 8.2 HOME by 0.25 20-Dec-2018 St Louis Vancouver 5.8 HOME by 0.04 20-Dec-2018 NY Islanders Las Vegas 5.7 HOME by 1.00 20-Dec-2018 Winnipeg San Jose 6.7 AWAY by -0.16 21-Dec-2018 Ottawa New Jersey 7.0 HOME by 0.65 21-Dec-2018 Buffalo Washington 6.6 HOME by 1.21 21-Dec-2018 Chicago Colorado 6.9 HOME by 1.60 22-Dec-2018 Nashville Boston 5.9 HOME by 0.40 22-Dec-2018 Columbus Philadelphia 6.3 HOME by 0.16 22-Dec-2018 Florida Detroit 7.0 HOME by 0.62 22-Dec-2018 St Louis Calgary 7.2 HOME by 1.33 22-Dec-2018 Los Angeles San Jose 5.1 HOME by 1.52 22-Dec-2018 Montreal Las Vegas 5.8 HOME by 1.02 22-Dec-2018 Colorado Arizona 6.5 AWAY by -0.04 22-Dec-2018 Anaheim Buffalo 5.0 HOME by 1.05 22-Dec-2018 Pittsburgh Carolina 5.8 HOME by 0.09 22-Dec-2018 Washington Ottawa 6.3 AWAY by -1.18 22-Dec-2018 NY Rangers Toronto 6.8 HOME by 1.61 22-Dec-2018 Dallas Minnesota 4.7 HOME by 0.19 22-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Edmonton 6.5 HOME by 0.08 22-Dec-2018 Winnipeg Vancouver 7.0 AWAY by -0.96 23-Dec-2018 Columbus New Jersey 6.1 HOME by 0.34 23-Dec-2018 Boston Carolina 4.3 HOME by 0.15 23-Dec-2018 Florida Chicago 7.2 AWAY by -0.18 23-Dec-2018 Philadelphia NY Rangers 6.6 HOME by 0.47 23-Dec-2018 Detroit Toronto 6.6 HOME by 1.30 23-Dec-2018 NY Islanders Dallas 6.4 HOME by 0.71 23-Dec-2018 Arizona San Jose 5.6 HOME by 0.55 23-Dec-2018 Los Angeles Las Vegas 4.7 HOME by 2.04

Current home field advantage is: 0.36 MAE for games to date: 2.11 These ratings fit to produce 0.58 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.72: 0.69 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.55. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.88.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats