2017-18 National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Early-season predictions are based almost entirely on last year's games and the preseason, so use those with extreme caution.


Ratings last updated Monday 04/02/18, 08:31 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Nashville 51 28 2.82 50.62 2 2 Tampa Bay 52 27 2.78 50.58 1 3 Las Vegas 50 29 2.72 50.61 3 4 Winnipeg 48 30 2.65 50.60 4 5 Boston 49 29 2.20 50.45 5 6 Toronto 47 32 1.70 50.37 6 7 Los Angeles 43 36 1.52 50.44 13 8 San Jose 44 35 1.48 50.36 9 9 Minnesota 43 35 1.47 50.28 8 10 Colorado 42 37 1.21 50.32 14 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Pittsburgh 45 35 1.04 50.19 11 12 Washington 47 32 0.97 50.05 7 13 St Louis 43 35 0.89 50.15 12 14 Columbus 44 35 0.77 50.08 10 15 Florida 39 38 0.54 50.07 15 16 New Jersey 42 37 0.46 50.06 16 17 Anaheim 41 38 0.36 50.05 17 18 Dallas 40 39 0.35 50.13 19 19 Philadelphia 40 39 0.09 50.01 18 20 Edmonton 34 45 -0.64 49.91 20 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Carolina 35 44 -1.06 49.75 21 22 Chicago 32 47 -1.35 49.81 23 23 NY Islanders 32 47 -1.72 49.72 25 24 Calgary 36 43 -1.82 49.52 22 25 NY Rangers 34 45 -1.85 49.63 24 26 Arizona 28 51 -2.15 49.56 26 27 Detroit 30 49 -2.34 49.59 29 28 Vancouver 30 49 -2.52 49.45 27 29 Ottawa 27 51 -2.93 49.32 28 30 Montreal 28 51 -3.45 49.28 30 31 Buffalo 25 53 -4.19 49.03 31
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 02-Apr-2018 Buffalo Toronto 6.0 HOME by 1.65 02-Apr-2018 Winnipeg Ottawa 6.1 AWAY by -0.97 02-Apr-2018 Carolina Florida 6.4 HOME by 0.64 02-Apr-2018 Washington St Louis 5.4 HOME by 0.41 02-Apr-2018 Edmonton Minnesota 5.2 HOME by 0.68 02-Apr-2018 Colorado Los Angeles 5.5 HOME by 0.43 03-Apr-2018 NY Rangers New Jersey 5.9 HOME by 0.74 03-Apr-2018 Philadelphia NY Islanders 7.0 HOME by 0.02 03-Apr-2018 Detroit Columbus 5.6 HOME by 0.80 03-Apr-2018 Winnipeg Montreal 5.2 AWAY by -1.02 03-Apr-2018 Boston Tampa Bay 6.0 HOME by 0.44 03-Apr-2018 Nashville Florida 5.9 AWAY by -0.24 03-Apr-2018 Arizona Calgary 6.1 HOME by 0.27 03-Apr-2018 Las Vegas Vancouver 6.6 AWAY by -0.85 03-Apr-2018 Dallas San Jose 5.5 HOME by 0.54 04-Apr-2018 Ottawa Buffalo 5.4 HOME by 0.02 04-Apr-2018 Chicago St Louis 5.5 HOME by 0.65 04-Apr-2018 Minnesota Anaheim 5.9 HOME by 0.07 05-Apr-2018 Toronto New Jersey 6.2 AWAY by -0.00 05-Apr-2018 NY Rangers NY Islanders 7.1 HOME by 0.40 05-Apr-2018 Carolina Philadelphia 6.1 HOME by 0.57 05-Apr-2018 Nashville Washington 5.1 AWAY by -0.26 05-Apr-2018 Pittsburgh Columbus 5.7 HOME by 0.19 05-Apr-2018 Montreal Detroit 5.1 HOME by 0.62 05-Apr-2018 Boston Florida 5.9 AWAY by -0.07 05-Apr-2018 Calgary Winnipeg 6.1 HOME by 1.39 05-Apr-2018 Las Vegas Edmonton 6.8 AWAY by -0.39 05-Apr-2018 Arizona Vancouver 6.4 HOME by 0.20 05-Apr-2018 Minnesota Los Angeles 5.4 HOME by 0.46 05-Apr-2018 Colorado San Jose 6.0 HOME by 0.35 06-Apr-2018 Ottawa Pittsburgh 6.0 HOME by 1.18 06-Apr-2018 Buffalo Tampa Bay 6.2 HOME by 1.86 06-Apr-2018 St Louis Chicago 5.1 AWAY by -0.04 06-Apr-2018 Dallas Anaheim 5.5 HOME by 0.22 07-Apr-2018 NY Rangers Philadelphia 6.1 HOME by 0.69 07-Apr-2018 Chicago Winnipeg 6.7 HOME by 1.10 07-Apr-2018 Ottawa Boston 5.7 HOME by 1.44 07-Apr-2018 Montreal Toronto 5.9 HOME by 1.40 07-Apr-2018 NY Islanders Detroit 5.7 HOME by 0.18 07-Apr-2018 Buffalo Florida 6.1 HOME by 1.35 07-Apr-2018 New Jersey Washington 5.6 HOME by 0.30 07-Apr-2018 Tampa Bay Carolina 6.3 AWAY by -0.53 07-Apr-2018 Columbus Nashville 6.0 HOME by 0.85 07-Apr-2018 Anaheim Arizona 5.0 AWAY by -0.18 07-Apr-2018 St Louis Colorado 5.6 HOME by 0.48 07-Apr-2018 Las Vegas Calgary 6.3 AWAY by -0.78 07-Apr-2018 Vancouver Edmonton 6.4 HOME by 0.77 07-Apr-2018 Dallas Los Angeles 5.0 HOME by 0.62 07-Apr-2018 Minnesota San Jose 5.9 HOME by 0.38 08-Apr-2018 Florida Boston 5.7 HOME by 0.69

Current home field advantage is: 0.31 MAE for games to date: 1.97 These ratings fit to produce 0.61 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.62: 0.69 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.48. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.80.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats