2018-19 National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Early-season predictions are based almost entirely on last year's games and the preseason, so use those with extreme caution.


Ratings last updated Wednesday 02/20/19, 03:47 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Tampa Bay 46 15 5.32 51.17 1 2 Toronto 36 23 2.73 50.68 3 3 NY Islanders 35 23 2.34 50.50 2 4 Calgary 36 23 2.32 50.61 4 5 Boston 35 25 1.83 50.39 5 6 San Jose 35 25 1.69 50.41 7 7 Winnipeg 36 23 1.68 50.34 6 8 Carolina 31 29 1.43 50.36 9 9 Nashville 35 27 1.42 50.37 10 10 St Louis 32 27 1.22 50.21 8 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Las Vegas 32 29 1.13 50.32 12 12 Pittsburgh 32 28 1.11 50.39 15 13 Montreal 32 28 0.52 50.06 13 14 Washington 33 27 0.50 50.09 14 15 Columbus 33 26 0.33 49.94 11 16 Dallas 29 30 0.02 50.01 16 17 Florida 26 32 -0.75 49.77 18 18 Philadelphia 28 32 -0.78 49.73 17 19 Buffalo 28 31 -0.86 49.76 19 20 Arizona 27 33 -1.06 49.77 21 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 NY Rangers 26 33 -1.29 49.64 20 22 Edmonton 24 35 -1.35 49.74 23 23 Detroit 23 37 -1.35 49.70 22 24 Colorado 24 35 -1.40 49.86 27 25 Minnesota 27 33 -1.61 49.72 25 26 Chicago 25 35 -1.71 49.63 24 27 Vancouver 26 34 -2.21 49.48 26 28 New Jersey 23 37 -2.33 49.53 29 29 Ottawa 22 37 -2.76 49.42 30 30 Anaheim 24 36 -2.87 49.21 28 31 Los Angeles 23 36 -3.27 49.21 31
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 20-Feb-2019 Chicago Detroit 6.7 HOME by 0.36 20-Feb-2019 Winnipeg Colorado 6.3 AWAY by -0.20 20-Feb-2019 NY Islanders Calgary 6.8 HOME by 0.40 20-Feb-2019 Boston Las Vegas 4.8 HOME by 0.22 21-Feb-2019 Carolina Florida 5.8 AWAY by -0.31 21-Feb-2019 Ottawa New Jersey 7.1 HOME by 0.40 21-Feb-2019 Minnesota NY Rangers 5.3 HOME by 0.21 21-Feb-2019 San Jose Pittsburgh 8.2 HOME by 0.26 21-Feb-2019 Washington Toronto 6.7 HOME by 0.87 21-Feb-2019 Philadelphia Montreal 6.2 HOME by 0.61 21-Feb-2019 Buffalo Tampa Bay 6.4 HOME by 1.70 21-Feb-2019 Los Angeles Nashville 4.8 HOME by 1.44 21-Feb-2019 St Louis Dallas 4.8 HOME by 0.08 21-Feb-2019 NY Islanders Edmonton 5.5 AWAY by -0.47 21-Feb-2019 Arizona Vancouver 5.8 AWAY by -0.01 22-Feb-2019 Columbus Ottawa 6.1 AWAY by -0.24 22-Feb-2019 Colorado Chicago 7.8 HOME by 0.05 22-Feb-2019 Minnesota Detroit 5.2 HOME by 0.27 22-Feb-2019 Anaheim Calgary 6.9 HOME by 1.68 22-Feb-2019 Winnipeg Las Vegas 5.8 HOME by 0.26 23-Feb-2019 Washington Buffalo 6.5 AWAY by -0.05 23-Feb-2019 New Jersey NY Rangers 6.4 HOME by 0.39 23-Feb-2019 Boston St Louis 5.4 HOME by 0.11 23-Feb-2019 San Jose Columbus 7.7 AWAY by -0.18 23-Feb-2019 Carolina Dallas 5.5 AWAY by -0.07 23-Feb-2019 Los Angeles Florida 5.5 HOME by 0.84 23-Feb-2019 Colorado Nashville 6.4 HOME by 0.79 23-Feb-2019 Montreal Toronto 5.9 HOME by 0.90 23-Feb-2019 Pittsburgh Philadelphia 6.5 AWAY by -0.38 23-Feb-2019 Anaheim Edmonton 5.6 HOME by 0.82 23-Feb-2019 NY Islanders Vancouver 5.3 AWAY by -0.73 24-Feb-2019 NY Rangers Washington 7.3 HOME by 0.72 24-Feb-2019 Dallas Chicago 5.6 AWAY by -0.09 24-Feb-2019 San Jose Detroit 7.1 AWAY by -0.42 24-Feb-2019 St Louis Minnesota 4.8 AWAY by -0.21 24-Feb-2019 Calgary Ottawa 5.8 AWAY by -0.91 24-Feb-2019 Winnipeg Arizona 5.5 AWAY by -0.29 25-Feb-2019 Montreal New Jersey 5.6 AWAY by -0.24 25-Feb-2019 Buffalo Toronto 6.1 HOME by 1.20 25-Feb-2019 Los Angeles Tampa Bay 5.8 HOME by 2.25 25-Feb-2019 Edmonton Nashville 5.5 HOME by 0.91 25-Feb-2019 Florida Colorado 6.9 HOME by 0.38 25-Feb-2019 Anaheim Vancouver 5.4 HOME by 0.55 26-Feb-2019 San Jose Boston 7.2 HOME by 0.26 26-Feb-2019 Los Angeles Carolina 5.0 HOME by 1.44 26-Feb-2019 Pittsburgh Columbus 6.8 AWAY by -0.16 26-Feb-2019 Calgary NY Islanders 5.0 HOME by 0.17 26-Feb-2019 Buffalo Philadelphia 5.9 HOME by 0.26 26-Feb-2019 Ottawa Washington 7.7 HOME by 0.95 26-Feb-2019 Montreal Detroit 5.5 AWAY by -0.07 26-Feb-2019 Nashville St Louis 6.3 HOME by 0.13 26-Feb-2019 Minnesota Winnipeg 5.9 HOME by 0.90 26-Feb-2019 Florida Arizona 6.1 HOME by 0.29 26-Feb-2019 Dallas Las Vegas 4.4 HOME by 0.60 27-Feb-2019 Calgary New Jersey 5.7 AWAY by -0.79 27-Feb-2019 Edmonton Toronto 6.2 HOME by 1.22 27-Feb-2019 Tampa Bay NY Rangers 6.3 AWAY by -1.25 27-Feb-2019 Vancouver Colorado 5.8 HOME by 0.67 27-Feb-2019 Chicago Anaheim 6.7 AWAY by -0.14 28-Feb-2019 Tampa Bay Boston 6.3 AWAY by -0.50 28-Feb-2019 Philadelphia Columbus 6.8 HOME by 0.50 28-Feb-2019 Toronto NY Islanders 5.7 HOME by 0.10 28-Feb-2019 Edmonton Ottawa 6.1 AWAY by -0.04 28-Feb-2019 Vancouver Arizona 5.0 HOME by 0.58 28-Feb-2019 Florida Las Vegas 6.4 HOME by 0.84 28-Feb-2019 Dallas Los Angeles 4.4 AWAY by -0.51 01-Mar-2019 Pittsburgh Buffalo 6.4 AWAY by -0.35 01-Mar-2019 Philadelphia New Jersey 6.3 HOME by 0.08 01-Mar-2019 Washington NY Islanders 5.8 HOME by 0.69 01-Mar-2019 Montreal NY Rangers 5.6 AWAY by -0.13 01-Mar-2019 St Louis Carolina 4.6 HOME by 0.44 01-Mar-2019 Nashville Winnipeg 6.5 HOME by 0.26 01-Mar-2019 Las Vegas Anaheim 5.7 AWAY by -0.83 01-Mar-2019 Colorado San Jose 7.4 HOME by 0.83 02-Mar-2019 Edmonton Columbus 6.4 HOME by 0.49 02-Mar-2019 Chicago Los Angeles 6.6 AWAY by -0.14 02-Mar-2019 New Jersey Boston 6.4 HOME by 1.14 02-Mar-2019 Carolina Florida 5.8 AWAY by -0.31 02-Mar-2019 Pittsburgh Montreal 6.2 AWAY by -0.05 02-Mar-2019 Ottawa Tampa Bay 7.7 HOME by 2.04 02-Mar-2019 Buffalo Toronto 6.1 HOME by 1.20 02-Mar-2019 Detroit Arizona 5.9 HOME by 0.35 02-Mar-2019 Dallas St Louis 4.9 HOME by 0.49 02-Mar-2019 Minnesota Calgary 7.1 HOME by 1.17 03-Mar-2019 Washington NY Rangers 6.4 AWAY by -0.16 03-Mar-2019 Philadelphia NY Islanders 5.7 HOME by 1.05 03-Mar-2019 Colorado Anaheim 6.7 AWAY by -0.37 03-Mar-2019 Vancouver Las Vegas 5.3 HOME by 1.13 03-Mar-2019 Ottawa Florida 7.3 HOME by 0.63 03-Mar-2019 Winnipeg Columbus 6.5 AWAY by -0.11 03-Mar-2019 Nashville Minnesota 5.8 AWAY by -0.36 03-Mar-2019 Chicago San Jose 7.5 HOME by 1.06 04-Mar-2019 Edmonton Buffalo 6.0 HOME by 0.30 04-Mar-2019 Toronto Calgary 8.1 HOME by 0.21 05-Mar-2019 Carolina Boston 5.5 HOME by 0.31 05-Mar-2019 Columbus New Jersey 5.9 AWAY by -0.13 05-Mar-2019 Ottawa NY Islanders 6.4 HOME by 1.36 05-Mar-2019 Florida Pittsburgh 7.5 HOME by 0.91 05-Mar-2019 Winnipeg Tampa Bay 6.6 HOME by 1.11 05-Mar-2019 Minnesota Nashville 4.9 HOME by 0.93 05-Mar-2019 NY Rangers Dallas 6.6 HOME by 0.64 05-Mar-2019 Anaheim Arizona 4.6 HOME by 0.85 05-Mar-2019 Detroit Colorado 6.6 HOME by 0.44 05-Mar-2019 Montreal Los Angeles 5.5 AWAY by -0.57 06-Mar-2019 Washington Philadelphia 6.6 AWAY by -0.07 06-Mar-2019 Toronto Vancouver 6.6 AWAY by -0.92 06-Mar-2019 St Louis Anaheim 4.8 AWAY by -0.72 06-Mar-2019 Calgary Las Vegas 5.5 AWAY by -0.00

Current home field advantage is: 0.28 MAE for games to date: 2.06 These ratings fit to produce 0.59 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.57: 0.65 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.55. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.87.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats