Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 10-Dec-2025 07 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 21 5 4 5.59 51.68 1 2 Washington 18 9 3 3.71 51.08 2 3 Dallas 18 8 5 3.28 50.86 3 4 Tampa Bay 17 13 0 2.36 50.63 4 5 Los Angeles 13 10 6 1.78 50.45 7 6 Pittsburgh 14 9 5 1.76 50.39 5 7 Anaheim 15 11 4 1.64 50.44 8 8 Boston 16 13 2 1.53 50.30 6 9 NY Islanders 15 11 5 1.09 50.18 9 10 Carolina 17 10 2 1.03 50.32 11 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 New Jersey 15 13 2 0.63 50.04 10 12 Las Vegas 13 12 4 0.31 50.07 13 13 Detroit 14 12 4 -0.04 49.81 12 14 Minnesota 13 13 4 -0.11 49.96 15 15 NY Rangers 14 16 1 -0.15 50.04 17 16 Florida 13 13 2 -0.19 49.94 16 17 Toronto 14 14 1 -0.30 50.03 18 18 Arizona 14 17 0 -0.74 49.94 23 19 Montreal 13 12 4 -0.77 49.60 14 20 Philadelphia 11 12 5 -0.82 49.84 21 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 San Jose 13 16 2 -0.96 49.68 19 22 Edmonton 13 15 2 -1.01 49.78 22 23 Chicago 12 15 2 -1.37 49.70 25 24 Winnipeg 13 14 2 -1.42 49.69 26 25 Seattle 11 13 3 -1.43 49.49 20 26 Ottawa 10 16 3 -1.69 49.53 24 27 Columbus 9 16 5 -1.89 49.59 28 28 Buffalo 10 18 2 -1.90 49.59 29 29 Nashville 9 18 2 -2.15 49.40 27 30 Vancouver 9 19 2 -2.24 49.48 31 31 St Louis 11 18 2 -2.56 49.25 30 32 Calgary 10 17 4 -2.99 49.24 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 10-Dec-2025 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 4 3 0 17 13 0 2.36 ( 4) 50.63 13 10 0 0.61 ( 4) 2 Boston 6 5 1 16 13 2 1.53 ( 8) 50.30 10 8 1 0.94 ( 1) 3 Detroit 5 4 1 14 12 4 -0.04 ( 13) 49.81 9 8 3 -0.58 ( 30) 4 Florida 2 4 0 13 13 2 -0.19 ( 16) 49.94 11 9 2 -0.02 ( 15) 5 Toronto 4 6 1 14 14 1 -0.30 ( 17) 50.03 10 8 0 -0.34 ( 24) 6 Montreal 4 4 1 13 12 4 -0.77 ( 19) 49.60 9 8 3 -0.28 ( 22) 7 Ottawa 4 4 0 10 16 3 -1.69 ( 26) 49.53 6 12 3 -0.00 ( 14) 8 Buffalo 5 4 0 10 18 2 -1.90 ( 28) 49.59 5 14 2 0.01 ( 13) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 7 2 1 18 9 3 3.71 ( 2) 51.08 11 7 2 0.13 ( 11) 2 Pittsburgh 5 1 3 14 9 5 1.76 ( 6) 50.39 9 8 2 -0.18 ( 19) 3 NY Islanders 4 4 2 15 11 5 1.09 ( 9) 50.18 11 7 3 0.68 ( 3) 4 Carolina 5 2 0 17 10 2 1.03 ( 10) 50.32 12 8 2 -0.08 ( 18) 5 New Jersey 1 5 2 15 13 2 0.63 ( 11) 50.04 14 8 0 0.56 ( 5) 6 NY Rangers 2 4 1 14 16 1 -0.15 ( 15) 50.04 12 12 0 0.06 ( 12) 7 Philadelphia 2 2 3 11 12 5 -0.82 ( 20) 49.84 9 10 2 -0.62 ( 31) 8 Columbus 1 7 2 9 16 5 -1.89 ( 27) 49.59 8 9 3 -0.38 ( 27) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 3 1 3 21 5 4 5.59 ( 1) 51.68 18 4 1 -0.06 ( 16) 2 Dallas 6 1 1 18 8 5 3.28 ( 3) 50.86 12 7 4 -0.28 ( 23) 3 Minnesota 4 3 1 13 13 4 -0.11 ( 14) 49.96 9 10 3 -0.22 ( 21) 4 Arizona 5 4 0 14 17 0 -0.74 ( 18) 49.94 9 13 0 -0.41 ( 28) 5 Chicago 2 4 0 12 15 2 -1.37 ( 23) 49.70 10 11 2 -0.18 ( 20) 6 Winnipeg 4 4 0 13 14 2 -1.42 ( 24) 49.69 9 10 2 -0.45 ( 29) 7 Nashville 1 7 1 9 18 2 -2.15 ( 29) 49.40 8 11 1 -0.35 ( 26) 8 St Louis 2 3 0 11 18 2 -2.56 ( 31) 49.25 9 15 2 -0.35 ( 25) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Los Angeles 2 0 3 13 10 6 1.78 ( 5) 50.45 11 10 3 0.24 ( 9) 2 Anaheim 3 2 1 15 11 4 1.64 ( 7) 50.44 12 9 3 0.38 ( 7) 3 Las Vegas 4 3 1 13 12 4 0.31 ( 12) 50.07 9 9 3 0.38 ( 8) 4 San Jose 2 6 1 13 16 2 -0.96 ( 21) 49.68 11 10 1 0.87 ( 2) 5 Edmonton 3 2 1 13 15 2 -1.01 ( 22) 49.78 10 13 1 0.14 ( 10) 6 Seattle 4 3 0 11 13 3 -1.43 ( 25) 49.49 7 10 3 -0.08 ( 17) 7 Vancouver 3 4 0 9 19 2 -2.24 ( 30) 49.48 6 15 2 0.39 ( 6) 8 Calgary 2 3 1 10 17 4 -2.99 ( 32) 49.24 8 14 3 -0.84 ( 32)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 North 0.67 2 Central 0.07 3 East -0.13 4 West -0.61PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 10-Dec-2025 NY Rangers Chicago 4.9 AWAY by -0.26 10-Dec-2025 Detroit Calgary 4.9 AWAY by -0.50 10-Dec-2025 Florida Arizona 6.5 HOME by 0.08 10-Dec-2025 Los Angeles Seattle 4.3 AWAY by -0.89 11-Dec-2025 San Jose Toronto 6.7 HOME by 0.42 11-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay New Jersey 5.2 AWAY by -0.52 11-Dec-2025 Anaheim NY Islanders 7.0 AWAY by -0.19 11-Dec-2025 Las Vegas Philadelphia 4.9 AWAY by -0.16 11-Dec-2025 Montreal Pittsburgh 6.6 HOME by 0.87 11-Dec-2025 Carolina Washington 5.7 HOME by 0.83 11-Dec-2025 Ottawa Columbus 6.6 HOME by 0.13 11-Dec-2025 St Louis Nashville 5.6 HOME by 0.22 11-Dec-2025 Dallas Minnesota 5.8 AWAY by -0.83 11-Dec-2025 Boston Winnipeg 6.7 AWAY by -0.54 11-Dec-2025 Florida Colorado 6.7 HOME by 1.81 11-Dec-2025 Detroit Edmonton 6.9 HOME by 0.04 11-Dec-2025 Buffalo Vancouver 7.0 AWAY by -0.03 12-Dec-2025 Chicago St Louis 6.7 AWAY by -0.38 12-Dec-2025 Seattle Arizona 5.9 HOME by 0.53 13-Dec-2025 Anaheim New Jersey 7.0 AWAY by -0.33 13-Dec-2025 Ottawa Minnesota 6.4 HOME by 0.51 13-Dec-2025 San Jose Pittsburgh 6.9 HOME by 0.79 13-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay NY Islanders 5.1 AWAY by -0.38 13-Dec-2025 Edmonton Toronto 6.1 HOME by 0.33 13-Dec-2025 Montreal NY Rangers 5.5 HOME by 0.51 13-Dec-2025 Carolina Philadelphia 5.8 AWAY by -0.41 13-Dec-2025 Las Vegas Columbus 5.1 AWAY by -0.41 13-Dec-2025 Washington Winnipeg 6.2 AWAY by -1.32 13-Dec-2025 Detroit Chicago 4.9 AWAY by -0.04 13-Dec-2025 Florida Dallas 5.9 HOME by 1.00 13-Dec-2025 Nashville Colorado 6.6 HOME by 2.36 13-Dec-2025 Calgary Los Angeles 4.1 HOME by 1.29 14-Dec-2025 Vancouver New Jersey 6.5 HOME by 0.63 14-Dec-2025 Arizona Pittsburgh 6.1 HOME by 0.53 14-Dec-2025 Philadelphia Carolina 5.9 HOME by 0.56 14-Dec-2025 Boston Minnesota 6.2 AWAY by -0.26 14-Dec-2025 Edmonton Montreal 6.5 AWAY by -0.10 14-Dec-2025 Buffalo Seattle 5.8 AWAY by -0.02
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.