2017-18 National Hockey League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home "field" advantage, which is on the right below the predictions.

All of the predictions on the right already have the home "field" added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Early-season predictions are based almost entirely on last year's games and the preseason, so use those with extreme caution.


Ratings last updated Thursday 02/22/18, 08:34 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Las Vegas 40 20 3.98 50.74 1 2 Tampa Bay 40 20 3.10 50.64 2 3 Boston 37 21 2.47 50.51 3 4 Nashville 36 23 2.27 50.51 4 5 Winnipeg 35 25 1.94 50.46 6 6 Toronto 37 25 1.73 50.33 5 7 St Louis 34 27 1.51 50.38 11 8 Pittsburgh 35 26 1.28 50.24 8 9 Los Angeles 33 27 1.16 50.29 13 10 Minnesota 32 27 0.99 50.13 9 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Dallas 34 26 0.96 50.09 7 12 San Jose 33 27 0.84 50.15 12 13 Washington 34 26 0.79 50.08 10 14 Philadelphia 31 29 0.64 50.18 15 15 Anaheim 31 31 0.52 50.16 16 16 Colorado 32 27 -0.17 49.77 14 17 NY Islanders 29 32 -0.24 49.93 17 18 Edmonton 24 35 -0.41 50.04 23 19 Calgary 30 31 -0.44 49.93 21 20 Chicago 26 35 -0.56 50.03 24 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Columbus 30 30 -0.63 49.82 19 22 Carolina 27 33 -0.69 49.86 22 23 New Jersey 31 29 -0.71 49.76 18 24 Florida 26 31 -0.84 49.76 20 25 NY Rangers 27 33 -1.38 49.74 25 26 Detroit 24 35 -2.12 49.61 27 27 Ottawa 21 38 -2.37 49.48 26 28 Montreal 22 37 -2.70 49.55 29 29 Vancouver 23 37 -3.01 49.34 28 30 Arizona 17 42 -3.39 49.35 30 31 Buffalo 17 43 -4.54 49.16 31
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 22-Feb-2018 NY Islanders Toronto 6.3 HOME by 0.71 22-Feb-2018 Minnesota New Jersey 6.1 AWAY by -0.06 22-Feb-2018 Columbus Philadelphia 5.6 HOME by 0.67 22-Feb-2018 NY Rangers Montreal 5.6 HOME by 0.13 22-Feb-2018 Tampa Bay Ottawa 6.2 AWAY by -0.85 22-Feb-2018 Buffalo Detroit 5.3 HOME by 0.76 22-Feb-2018 Washington Florida 7.1 AWAY by -0.01 22-Feb-2018 San Jose Nashville 5.4 HOME by 0.66 22-Feb-2018 Colorado Edmonton 6.5 HOME by 0.57 22-Feb-2018 Calgary Arizona 5.3 AWAY by -0.27 22-Feb-2018 Dallas Los Angeles 4.9 HOME by 0.50 23-Feb-2018 Minnesota NY Rangers 6.0 AWAY by -0.08 23-Feb-2018 Pittsburgh Carolina 5.4 AWAY by -0.07 23-Feb-2018 Winnipeg St Louis 5.4 HOME by 0.23 23-Feb-2018 San Jose Chicago 4.9 HOME by 0.19 23-Feb-2018 Vancouver Las Vegas 6.1 HOME by 1.72 24-Feb-2018 Philadelphia Ottawa 5.9 AWAY by -0.39 24-Feb-2018 Colorado Calgary 6.2 HOME by 0.47 24-Feb-2018 Winnipeg Dallas 5.9 AWAY by -0.05 24-Feb-2018 Boston Toronto 5.8 HOME by 0.13 24-Feb-2018 Tampa Bay Montreal 5.7 AWAY by -0.77 24-Feb-2018 Carolina Detroit 5.7 HOME by 0.06 24-Feb-2018 Pittsburgh Florida 6.6 AWAY by -0.17 24-Feb-2018 NY Islanders New Jersey 6.2 HOME by 0.14 24-Feb-2018 Buffalo Washington 4.9 HOME by 1.23 24-Feb-2018 Chicago Columbus 5.3 HOME by 0.10 24-Feb-2018 Anaheim Arizona 5.3 AWAY by -0.49 24-Feb-2018 Edmonton Los Angeles 5.3 HOME by 0.56 25-Feb-2018 Boston Buffalo 5.7 AWAY by -1.04 25-Feb-2018 St Louis Nashville 5.1 HOME by 0.44 25-Feb-2018 Detroit NY Rangers 5.7 HOME by 0.44 25-Feb-2018 Edmonton Anaheim 5.5 HOME by 0.43 25-Feb-2018 San Jose Minnesota 5.0 HOME by 0.28 25-Feb-2018 Vancouver Arizona 5.6 HOME by 0.33 26-Feb-2018 Washington Columbus 5.9 HOME by 0.06 26-Feb-2018 Philadelphia Montreal 5.3 AWAY by -0.31 26-Feb-2018 Toronto Tampa Bay 6.6 HOME by 0.62 26-Feb-2018 Vancouver Colorado 6.0 HOME by 0.75 26-Feb-2018 Las Vegas Los Angeles 6.1 AWAY by -0.15 27-Feb-2018 Carolina Boston 5.4 HOME by 0.96 27-Feb-2018 New Jersey Pittsburgh 6.4 HOME by 0.79 27-Feb-2018 Ottawa Washington 5.1 HOME by 0.91 27-Feb-2018 Toronto Florida 6.9 AWAY by -0.26 27-Feb-2018 St Louis Minnesota 4.7 HOME by 0.06 27-Feb-2018 Nashville Winnipeg 5.9 HOME by 0.26 27-Feb-2018 Calgary Dallas 5.6 HOME by 0.47 27-Feb-2018 Los Angeles Las Vegas 5.5 HOME by 0.77 27-Feb-2018 Edmonton San Jose 5.5 HOME by 0.43 28-Feb-2018 NY Islanders Montreal 6.0 AWAY by -0.07 28-Feb-2018 Buffalo Tampa Bay 5.9 HOME by 1.79 28-Feb-2018 Detroit St Louis 5.4 HOME by 1.08 28-Feb-2018 Calgary Colorado 5.7 HOME by 0.15 28-Feb-2018 NY Rangers Vancouver 6.0 AWAY by -0.09 01-Mar-2018 Pittsburgh Boston 5.4 HOME by 0.58 01-Mar-2018 Carolina Philadelphia 6.0 HOME by 0.63 01-Mar-2018 New Jersey Florida 6.6 HOME by 0.31 01-Mar-2018 Tampa Bay Dallas 6.0 AWAY by -0.23 01-Mar-2018 Nashville Edmonton 5.9 AWAY by -0.16 01-Mar-2018 Minnesota Arizona 5.9 AWAY by -0.46 01-Mar-2018 Chicago San Jose 5.6 HOME by 0.43 01-Mar-2018 Columbus Los Angeles 4.9 HOME by 0.77 02-Mar-2018 Montreal NY Islanders 6.4 HOME by 0.69 02-Mar-2018 Buffalo Florida 6.3 HOME by 0.91 02-Mar-2018 New Jersey Carolina 5.4 HOME by 0.41 02-Mar-2018 Detroit Winnipeg 6.2 HOME by 1.16 02-Mar-2018 Minnesota Colorado 6.3 AWAY by -0.04 02-Mar-2018 NY Rangers Calgary 6.1 HOME by 0.51 02-Mar-2018 Nashville Vancouver 5.6 AWAY by -0.86 02-Mar-2018 Ottawa Las Vegas 6.0 HOME by 1.57 02-Mar-2018 Columbus Anaheim 5.2 HOME by 0.64 03-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Tampa Bay 6.0 HOME by 0.77 03-Mar-2018 St Louis Dallas 5.1 HOME by 0.03 03-Mar-2018 Chicago Los Angeles 5.3 HOME by 0.56 03-Mar-2018 Montreal Boston 4.9 HOME by 1.26 03-Mar-2018 NY Islanders Pittsburgh 6.7 HOME by 0.62 03-Mar-2018 Ottawa Arizona 5.5 HOME by 0.18 03-Mar-2018 Washington Toronto 6.5 Toro by 0.25 03-Mar-2018 NY Rangers Edmonton 6.4 HOME by 0.61 04-Mar-2018 Nashville Colorado 5.6 AWAY by -0.42 04-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Florida 6.3 AWAY by -0.11 04-Mar-2018 Chicago Anaheim 5.5 HOME by 0.43 04-Mar-2018 Las Vegas New Jersey 6.6 AWAY by -0.67 04-Mar-2018 Winnipeg Carolina 5.4 AWAY by -0.28 04-Mar-2018 Detroit Minnesota 5.4 HOME by 0.83 04-Mar-2018 Columbus San Jose 5.2 HOME by 0.64 05-Mar-2018 Calgary Pittsburgh 6.0 HOME by 0.62 05-Mar-2018 Toronto Buffalo 6.2 AWAY by -0.86 05-Mar-2018 Ottawa Dallas 5.8 HOME by 0.92 05-Mar-2018 Arizona Edmonton 6.4 HOME by 0.99 05-Mar-2018 NY Islanders Vancouver 6.4 AWAY by -0.29 06-Mar-2018 Detroit Boston 5.3 HOME by 1.21 06-Mar-2018 Montreal New Jersey 5.4 HOME by 0.51 06-Mar-2018 Winnipeg NY Rangers 5.7 AWAY by -0.41 06-Mar-2018 Las Vegas Columbus 6.1 AWAY by -0.61 06-Mar-2018 Florida Tampa Bay 6.2 HOME by 1.19 06-Mar-2018 Dallas Nashville 5.5 HOME by 0.72 06-Mar-2018 Carolina Minnesota 5.5 HOME by 0.58 06-Mar-2018 Colorado Chicago 5.5 HOME by 0.57 06-Mar-2018 Washington Anaheim 6.2 HOME by 0.39 07-Mar-2018 Calgary Buffalo 5.5 AWAY by -0.47 07-Mar-2018 Pittsburgh Philadelphia 6.0 HOME by 0.25 07-Mar-2018 Arizona Vancouver 6.1 HOME by 0.29 08-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Boston 5.1 HOME by 0.64 08-Mar-2018 Winnipeg New Jersey 5.9 AWAY by -0.39 08-Mar-2018 Colorado Columbus 5.4 HOME by 0.36 08-Mar-2018 Buffalo Ottawa 5.8 HOME by 0.64 08-Mar-2018 Las Vegas Detroit 6.4 AWAY by -0.82 08-Mar-2018 NY Rangers Tampa Bay 6.3 HOME by 1.21 08-Mar-2018 Montreal Florida 6.1 HOME by 0.51 08-Mar-2018 Anaheim Nashville 5.6 HOME by 0.66 08-Mar-2018 Carolina Chicago 5.5 HOME by 0.48 08-Mar-2018 NY Islanders Edmonton 6.8 HOME by 0.42 08-Mar-2018 Washington Los Angeles 5.9 HOME by 0.52 08-Mar-2018 St Louis San Jose 4.8 HOME by 0.09

Current home field advantage is: 0.31 MAE for games to date: 1.97 These ratings fit to produce 0.60 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.62: 0.68 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.41. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.76.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats