Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings


Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.

On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.

Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.

Ratings last updated 06-Feb-2025 08:56 EST Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Winnipeg 38 18 0 3.66 50.92 1 2 Dallas 32 19 2 2.90 50.70 3 3 Washington 35 16 2 2.70 50.54 2 4 Carolina 32 21 4 2.42 50.64 4 5 Florida 28 23 5 2.04 50.56 7 6 Edmonton 34 19 1 1.96 50.44 5 7 Las Vegas 30 21 3 1.69 50.47 10 8 Los Angeles 28 22 3 1.21 50.28 12 9 Minnesota 30 21 4 1.15 50.15 8 10 Tampa Bay 27 22 3 1.14 50.41 13 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Colorado 30 23 2 1.11 50.20 11 12 Ottawa 28 24 2 1.09 50.13 9 13 Toronto 31 21 0 0.92 49.99 6 14 New Jersey 29 24 3 0.58 50.21 15 15 NY Rangers 25 27 1 0.53 50.14 14 16 NY Islanders 23 27 3 0.11 50.05 17 17 Boston 27 28 1 -0.43 49.78 16 18 Arizona 22 29 2 -0.54 49.96 23 19 Columbus 22 27 5 -0.56 49.93 21 20 Buffalo 20 30 3 -0.76 49.96 26 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Vancouver 23 28 3 -0.76 49.83 20 22 Calgary 23 26 5 -0.84 49.77 19 23 Detroit 25 26 3 -0.84 49.73 18 24 Pittsburgh 21 28 6 -1.02 49.75 24 25 Montreal 23 27 4 -1.12 49.68 22 26 Seattle 22 29 5 -1.45 49.74 28 27 Anaheim 22 28 4 -1.62 49.55 25 28 St Louis 22 30 2 -1.85 49.60 29 29 Philadelphia 20 29 6 -1.92 49.44 27 30 Nashville 17 34 1 -2.28 49.62 30 31 Chicago 15 36 2 -4.53 48.99 32 32 San Jose 15 36 4 -4.73 48.85 31

Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.


NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 06-Feb-2025 08:56 EST) --- East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Florida 5 6 0 28 23 5 2.04 ( 5) 50.56 23 17 5 0.11 ( 10) 2 Tampa Bay 4 8 0 27 22 3 1.14 ( 10) 50.41 23 14 3 -0.08 ( 20) 3 Ottawa 6 6 1 28 24 2 1.09 ( 12) 50.13 22 18 1 0.20 ( 6) 4 Toronto 10 6 0 31 21 0 0.92 ( 13) 49.99 21 15 0 0.35 ( 2) 5 Boston 9 7 1 27 28 1 -0.43 ( 17) 49.78 18 21 0 0.03 ( 13) 6 Buffalo 5 7 1 20 30 3 -0.76 ( 20) 49.96 15 23 2 -0.08 ( 22) 7 Detroit 6 9 1 25 26 3 -0.84 ( 23) 49.73 19 17 2 -0.49 ( 32) 8 Montreal 9 5 0 23 27 4 -1.12 ( 25) 49.68 14 22 4 0.20 ( 5) --- North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 11 4 0 35 16 2 2.70 ( 3) 50.54 24 12 2 0.07 ( 12) 2 Carolina 14 5 2 32 21 4 2.42 ( 4) 50.64 18 16 2 0.19 ( 7) 3 New Jersey 9 9 1 29 24 3 0.58 ( 14) 50.21 20 15 2 -0.37 ( 31) 4 NY Rangers 5 8 1 25 27 1 0.53 ( 15) 50.14 20 19 0 -0.23 ( 28) 5 NY Islanders 7 7 1 23 27 3 0.11 ( 16) 50.05 16 20 2 -0.25 ( 29) 6 Columbus 3 7 5 22 27 5 -0.56 ( 19) 49.93 19 20 0 -0.21 ( 24) 7 Pittsburgh 3 9 3 21 28 6 -1.02 ( 24) 49.75 18 19 3 -0.07 ( 19) 8 Philadelphia 6 9 1 20 29 6 -1.92 ( 29) 49.44 14 20 5 -0.21 ( 25) --- Central CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Winnipeg 14 5 0 38 18 0 3.66 ( 1) 50.92 24 13 0 -0.17 ( 23) 2 Dallas 12 5 0 32 19 2 2.90 ( 2) 50.70 20 14 2 0.12 ( 9) 3 Minnesota 10 9 1 30 21 4 1.15 ( 9) 50.15 20 12 3 0.10 ( 11) 4 Colorado 8 9 0 30 23 2 1.11 ( 11) 50.20 22 14 2 -0.01 ( 15) 5 Arizona 7 9 1 22 29 2 -0.54 ( 18) 49.96 15 20 1 -0.26 ( 30) 6 St Louis 4 9 0 22 30 2 -1.85 ( 28) 49.60 18 21 2 -0.08 ( 21) 7 Nashville 6 8 1 17 34 1 -2.28 ( 30) 49.62 11 26 0 -0.02 ( 17) 8 Chicago 4 11 1 15 36 2 -4.53 ( 31) 48.99 11 25 1 -0.04 ( 18) --- West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Edmonton 9 6 0 34 19 1 1.96 ( 6) 50.44 25 13 1 -0.23 ( 27) 2 Las Vegas 14 3 0 30 21 3 1.69 ( 7) 50.47 16 18 3 0.52 ( 1) 3 Los Angeles 7 8 1 28 22 3 1.21 ( 8) 50.28 21 14 2 0.22 ( 4) 4 Vancouver 6 7 2 23 28 3 -0.76 ( 21) 49.83 17 21 1 -0.02 ( 16) 5 Calgary 9 5 1 23 26 5 -0.84 ( 22) 49.77 14 21 4 -0.22 ( 26) 6 Seattle 6 9 2 22 29 5 -1.45 ( 26) 49.74 16 20 3 0.12 ( 8) 7 Anaheim 5 11 0 22 28 4 -1.62 ( 27) 49.55 17 17 4 0.33 ( 3) 8 San Jose 4 11 0 15 36 4 -4.73 ( 32) 48.85 11 25 4 0.01 ( 14)

The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.


Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 North 0.35 2 East 0.26 3 Central -0.05 4 West -0.57
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 06-Feb-2025 Ottawa Tampa Bay 5.3 HOME by 0.53 06-Feb-2025 Las Vegas New Jersey 5.9 AWAY by -0.01 06-Feb-2025 Washington Philadelphia 5.5 AWAY by -0.86 06-Feb-2025 Arizona Columbus 6.9 HOME by 0.21 06-Feb-2025 Florida St Louis 6.0 AWAY by -0.72 06-Feb-2025 Carolina Minnesota 5.8 AWAY by -0.25 06-Feb-2025 Colorado Calgary 6.2 AWAY by -0.19 06-Feb-2025 Toronto Seattle 5.8 AWAY by -0.01 06-Feb-2025 Vancouver San Jose 5.2 AWAY by -0.75 07-Feb-2025 Pittsburgh NY Rangers 6.3 HOME by 0.63 07-Feb-2025 NY Islanders Winnipeg 5.3 HOME by 1.11 07-Feb-2025 Nashville Chicago 5.7 AWAY by -0.39 07-Feb-2025 Colorado Edmonton 6.2 HOME by 0.47 07-Feb-2025 Dallas Los Angeles 4.9 AWAY by -0.18 08-Feb-2025 New Jersey Montreal 6.1 AWAY by -0.30 08-Feb-2025 Tampa Bay Detroit 6.3 AWAY by -0.44 08-Feb-2025 Arizona Carolina 6.3 HOME by 0.92 08-Feb-2025 Las Vegas Boston 5.4 AWAY by -0.44 08-Feb-2025 Ottawa Florida 5.0 HOME by 0.67 08-Feb-2025 Pittsburgh Philadelphia 6.3 AWAY by -0.07 08-Feb-2025 NY Rangers Columbus 7.0 HOME by 0.02 08-Feb-2025 Chicago St Louis 5.4 HOME by 0.84 08-Feb-2025 Toronto Vancouver 5.8 HOME by 0.08 08-Feb-2025 Buffalo Nashville 5.9 AWAY by -0.10 08-Feb-2025 NY Islanders Minnesota 5.7 HOME by 0.34 08-Feb-2025 Seattle Calgary 6.6 HOME by 0.27 08-Feb-2025 Anaheim Los Angeles 4.8 HOME by 0.97 08-Feb-2025 Dallas San Jose 5.8 AWAY by -1.62 09-Feb-2025 Arizona Washington 5.9 HOME by 0.83 09-Feb-2025 Tampa Bay Montreal 6.8 AWAY by -0.50

Original Text Files

Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.

What is this about?

Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.

So it's just a math formula?

Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).

The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.

Are the predictions any good?

Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:

  • In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
  • In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
  • In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct

My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!

Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.

Who are you, anyway?

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).

Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.

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