Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.

Reminder: games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.

Ratings last updated Thursday 04/18/24 08:27 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Carolina              50 25  7     2.59    50.70    1
   2 Edmonton              47 31  3     2.42    50.84    5
   3 NY Rangers            52 24  6     2.35    50.59    2
   4 Florida               49 28  5     2.27    50.67    3
   5 Dallas                48 28  6     2.07    50.63    6
   6 Boston                43 32  7     1.76    50.73   10
   7 Winnipeg              51 29  1     1.73    50.37    4
   8 Vancouver             50 29  2     1.69    50.43    7
   9 Colorado              47 30  4     1.65    50.57    8
  10 Las Vegas             41 34  6     1.56    50.66   12

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Los Angeles           41 33  7     1.35    50.56   14
  12 Toronto               41 34  7     1.25    50.48   13
  13 Tampa Bay             42 36  4     0.92    50.19    9
  14 Nashville             44 35  3     0.56    50.04   11
  15 New Jersey            38 42  2     0.30    50.17   16
  16 Minnesota             36 39  6     0.10    49.99   15
  17 NY Islanders          38 39  5     0.02    50.00   17
  18 Detroit               38 40  4    -0.20    49.90   20
  19 Calgary               37 40  4    -0.24    49.94   21
  20 St Louis              38 37  7    -0.40    49.78   19

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Pittsburgh            36 41  5    -0.52    49.92   23
  22 Buffalo               37 42  3    -0.59    49.79   22
  23 Seattle               30 44  7    -0.66    49.98   26
  24 Ottawa                32 45  5    -0.72    49.87   25
  25 Washington            36 37  9    -0.87    49.48   18
  26 Philadelphia          34 41  7    -1.30    49.49   24
  27 Arizona               34 46  2    -1.38    49.63   27
  28 Montreal              26 44 12    -1.92    49.48   28
  29 Columbus              24 53  5    -3.01    49.13   29
  30 Anaheim               25 53  3    -3.71    48.80   30
  31 Chicago               22 57  2    -4.12    48.74   31
  32 San Jose              18 57  6    -4.93    48.45   32

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 East                           0.34
   2 Central                        0.03
   3 North                         -0.06
   4 West                          -0.32

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
18-Apr-2024  Anaheim               Las Vegas               6.4  HOME by   2.14
18-Apr-2024  San Jose              Calgary                 6.2  HOME by   1.77
18-Apr-2024  Chicago               Los Angeles             5.5  HOME by   2.09
18-Apr-2024  Edmonton              Colorado                7.1  HOME by   0.01
18-Apr-2024  Seattle               Minnesota               4.8  HOME by   0.28
18-Apr-2024  Vancouver             Winnipeg                5.9  HOME by   0.22

Current home field advantage is:  0.27

MAE for games to date:  2.08

These ratings fit to produce 0.58 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.55:  0.66

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.73.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.93.