Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
(Everything is here on a single, scrollable page now. This reduces the need for the Javascript tabs, which were nice but unneeded. Scrapers should not be impacted.)
Ratings
Ratings last updated 25-Mar-2026 08 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 44 17 9 4.46 51.17 1 2 Tampa Bay 40 24 6 3.19 50.83 3 3 Buffalo 40 27 4 3.02 50.74 2 4 Dallas 38 24 9 2.50 50.64 4 5 Carolina 40 23 8 2.20 50.50 5 6 Montreal 37 26 7 1.83 50.42 6 7 Pittsburgh 33 26 12 1.56 50.41 7 8 Minnesota 36 27 9 1.39 50.36 8 9 Boston 36 29 6 1.15 50.24 9 10 Ottawa 35 33 3 1.11 50.31 11 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Washington 34 31 7 0.63 50.16 13 12 Columbus 32 32 8 0.62 50.22 14 13 Detroit 36 30 5 0.55 50.04 12 14 Utah 37 35 0 0.50 50.22 16 15 NY Islanders 36 27 9 0.47 49.94 10 16 Edmonton 35 34 3 -0.05 50.04 18 17 Anaheim 32 31 8 -0.22 49.85 15 18 Nashville 30 36 5 -0.51 49.84 19 19 New Jersey 32 34 4 -0.58 49.75 17 20 Las Vegas 31 34 7 -0.60 49.93 21 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Florida 30 34 6 -1.01 49.66 20 22 Philadelphia 25 32 13 -1.13 49.75 24 23 Seattle 30 34 6 -1.24 49.70 23 24 St Louis 28 37 5 -1.26 49.66 22 25 Los Angeles 24 35 13 -1.38 49.71 27 26 Toronto 29 38 5 -1.41 49.69 26 27 Winnipeg 28 37 6 -1.52 49.69 28 28 San Jose 30 36 3 -1.92 49.41 25 29 NY Rangers 25 42 4 -2.25 49.58 31 30 Calgary 26 38 7 -2.53 49.31 29 31 Chicago 24 39 8 -2.58 49.41 30 32 Vancouver 16 47 7 -4.99 48.83 32
Ratings by Division
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 25-Mar-2026 08 AM ET) --- East CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 10 6 2 40 24 6 3.19 ( 2) 50.83 30 18 4 -0.25 ( 19) 2 Buffalo 14 7 1 40 27 4 3.02 ( 3) 50.74 26 20 3 -0.28 ( 23) 3 Montreal 12 9 2 37 26 7 1.83 ( 6) 50.42 25 17 5 -0.30 ( 26) 4 Boston 9 10 3 36 29 6 1.15 ( 9) 50.24 27 19 3 -0.43 ( 32) 5 Ottawa 8 12 0 35 33 3 1.11 ( 10) 50.31 27 21 3 -0.40 ( 31) 6 Detroit 12 10 1 36 30 5 0.55 ( 13) 50.04 24 20 4 -0.26 ( 21) 7 Florida 8 11 1 30 34 6 -1.01 ( 21) 49.66 22 23 5 -0.32 ( 27) 8 Toronto 7 15 2 29 38 5 -1.41 ( 26) 49.69 22 23 3 -0.25 ( 20) --- North CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Carolina 11 5 4 40 23 8 2.20 ( 5) 50.50 29 18 4 0.07 ( 10) 2 Pittsburgh 11 4 7 33 26 12 1.56 ( 7) 50.41 22 22 5 0.03 ( 13) 3 Washington 13 5 2 34 31 7 0.63 ( 11) 50.16 21 26 5 0.07 ( 9) 4 Columbus 8 11 4 32 32 8 0.62 ( 12) 50.22 24 21 4 -0.04 ( 16) 5 NY Islanders 14 6 2 36 27 9 0.47 ( 15) 49.94 22 21 7 -0.01 ( 15) 6 New Jersey 4 15 2 32 34 4 -0.58 ( 19) 49.75 28 19 2 0.04 ( 12) 7 Philadelphia 5 9 8 25 32 13 -1.13 ( 22) 49.75 20 23 5 0.05 ( 11) 8 NY Rangers 5 16 3 25 42 4 -2.25 ( 29) 49.58 20 26 1 0.01 ( 14) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 11 4 6 44 17 9 4.46 ( 1) 51.17 33 13 3 -0.09 ( 17) 2 Dallas 13 6 4 38 24 9 2.50 ( 4) 50.64 25 18 5 -0.37 ( 30) 3 Minnesota 11 9 3 36 27 9 1.39 ( 8) 50.36 25 18 6 -0.29 ( 25) 4 Utah 11 12 0 37 35 0 0.50 ( 14) 50.22 26 23 0 -0.23 ( 18) 5 Nashville 9 13 2 30 36 5 -0.51 ( 18) 49.84 21 23 3 -0.35 ( 29) 6 St Louis 6 14 0 28 37 5 -1.26 ( 24) 49.66 22 23 5 -0.27 ( 22) 7 Winnipeg 9 10 1 28 37 6 -1.52 ( 27) 49.69 19 27 5 -0.29 ( 24) 8 Chicago 10 12 2 24 39 8 -2.58 ( 31) 49.41 14 27 6 -0.32 ( 28) --- West CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Edmonton 11 6 2 35 34 3 -0.05 ( 16) 50.04 24 28 1 0.50 ( 4) 2 Anaheim 10 7 3 32 31 8 -0.22 ( 17) 49.85 22 24 5 0.61 ( 3) 3 Las Vegas 10 8 1 31 34 7 -0.60 ( 20) 49.93 21 26 6 0.48 ( 5) 4 Seattle 13 6 2 30 34 6 -1.24 ( 23) 49.70 17 28 4 0.42 ( 7) 5 Los Angeles 4 10 6 24 35 13 -1.38 ( 25) 49.71 20 25 7 0.63 ( 2) 6 San Jose 8 13 1 30 36 3 -1.92 ( 28) 49.41 22 23 2 0.85 ( 1) 7 Calgary 9 8 3 26 38 7 -2.53 ( 30) 49.31 17 30 4 0.24 ( 8) 8 Vancouver 4 11 2 16 47 7 -4.99 ( 32) 48.83 12 36 5 0.42 ( 6)
Division Rankings
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 1.05 2 Central 0.37 3 North 0.19 4 West -1.62
Predictions
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 25-Mar-2026 Boston Buffalo 7.2 HOME by 0.61 25-Mar-2026 NY Rangers Toronto 6.9 HOME by 0.21 26-Mar-2026 Columbus Montreal 6.1 HOME by 0.31 26-Mar-2026 Pittsburgh Ottawa 5.7 HOME by 0.01 26-Mar-2026 Seattle Tampa Bay 6.0 HOME by 1.24 26-Mar-2026 Minnesota Florida 6.3 AWAY by -0.59 26-Mar-2026 Dallas NY Islanders 5.8 AWAY by -0.59 26-Mar-2026 Chicago Philadelphia 5.2 HOME by 0.46 26-Mar-2026 San Jose St Louis 6.6 HOME by 0.35 26-Mar-2026 New Jersey Nashville 5.9 HOME by 0.20 26-Mar-2026 Colorado Winnipeg 5.8 AWAY by -1.37 26-Mar-2026 Washington Utah 6.0 HOME by 0.16 26-Mar-2026 Anaheim Calgary 6.1 AWAY by -0.43 26-Mar-2026 Edmonton Las Vegas 6.5 HOME by 0.00 26-Mar-2026 Los Angeles Vancouver 5.3 AWAY by -0.77 27-Mar-2026 Detroit Buffalo 5.7 HOME by 0.81 27-Mar-2026 Chicago NY Rangers 5.3 HOME by 0.28 28-Mar-2026 Ottawa Tampa Bay 6.8 HOME by 0.63 28-Mar-2026 Florida NY Islanders 6.0 HOME by 0.39 28-Mar-2026 Anaheim Edmonton 7.6 HOME by 0.30 28-Mar-2026 Minnesota Boston 6.1 AWAY by -0.01 28-Mar-2026 Dallas Pittsburgh 6.7 AWAY by -0.13 28-Mar-2026 New Jersey Carolina 6.4 HOME by 0.86 28-Mar-2026 San Jose Columbus 7.0 HOME by 0.91 28-Mar-2026 Seattle Buffalo 6.3 HOME by 1.15 28-Mar-2026 Toronto St Louis 6.4 HOME by 0.08 28-Mar-2026 Montreal Nashville 6.9 AWAY by -0.47 28-Mar-2026 Winnipeg Colorado 5.8 HOME by 1.59 28-Mar-2026 Philadelphia Detroit 6.0 HOME by 0.39 28-Mar-2026 Utah Los Angeles 5.3 AWAY by -0.40 28-Mar-2026 Vancouver Calgary 5.7 HOME by 0.58 28-Mar-2026 Washington Las Vegas 6.0 AWAY by -0.12 29-Mar-2026 Florida NY Rangers 5.8 HOME by 0.03 29-Mar-2026 Nashville Tampa Bay 6.3 HOME by 1.10 29-Mar-2026 Montreal Carolina 7.4 HOME by 0.19 29-Mar-2026 Boston Columbus 6.9 HOME by 0.08 29-Mar-2026 Chicago New Jersey 5.5 HOME by 0.45 29-Mar-2026 Dallas Philadelphia 5.5 AWAY by -0.78
Description
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.