Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 31-Dec-2025 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 28 5 5 7.02 51.76 1 2 Dallas 22 11 6 3.69 50.89 2 3 Tampa Bay 21 15 2 2.73 50.64 3 4 Washington 20 15 4 1.91 50.47 4 5 Minnesota 21 15 4 1.65 50.42 6 6 Carolina 20 13 6 0.98 50.23 9 7 NY Islanders 18 14 8 0.65 50.05 8 8 Montreal 19 14 6 0.63 50.03 7 9 Detroit 21 15 4 0.60 49.91 5 10 Florida 19 17 3 0.59 50.11 10 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Pittsburgh 16 16 6 0.41 50.08 11 12 Los Angeles 15 17 6 0.40 50.16 15 13 Edmonton 20 18 2 0.31 50.10 14 14 Las Vegas 16 15 6 0.31 50.05 12 15 Boston 18 19 3 -0.12 49.86 13 16 Buffalo 17 18 3 -0.22 49.95 17 17 Anaheim 17 18 4 -0.35 49.89 18 18 Philadelphia 15 15 8 -0.38 49.99 21 19 New Jersey 17 19 3 -0.49 49.80 16 20 Toronto 18 20 1 -0.65 49.93 23 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Arizona 18 22 0 -0.71 49.97 25 22 Seattle 16 17 4 -0.82 49.70 20 23 San Jose 18 19 2 -0.83 49.70 19 24 NY Rangers 17 22 2 -1.00 49.83 24 25 Nashville 15 21 2 -1.07 49.72 22 26 Ottawa 15 20 3 -1.29 49.75 26 27 Columbus 13 20 5 -1.88 49.63 28 28 Winnipeg 14 21 2 -2.01 49.72 31 29 Vancouver 12 23 4 -2.16 49.54 29 30 Calgary 15 20 4 -2.18 49.46 27 31 Chicago 13 22 4 -2.70 49.44 32 32 St Louis 15 23 2 -3.01 49.21 30
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 31-Dec-2025 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 5 4 1 21 15 2 2.73 ( 3) 50.64 16 11 1 0.11 ( 14) 2 Montreal 6 4 2 19 14 6 0.63 ( 8) 50.03 13 10 4 -0.33 ( 26) 3 Detroit 6 4 1 21 15 4 0.60 ( 9) 49.91 15 11 3 -0.52 ( 31) 4 Florida 3 6 0 19 17 3 0.59 ( 10) 50.11 16 11 3 0.15 ( 11) 5 Boston 6 8 1 18 19 3 -0.12 ( 15) 49.86 12 11 2 0.12 ( 13) 6 Buffalo 7 4 0 17 18 3 -0.22 ( 16) 49.95 10 14 3 -0.18 ( 17) 7 Toronto 5 7 1 18 20 1 -0.65 ( 20) 49.93 13 13 0 -0.45 ( 30) 8 Ottawa 5 6 0 15 20 3 -1.29 ( 26) 49.75 10 14 3 -0.44 ( 29) --- North CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Washington 8 3 2 20 15 4 1.91 ( 4) 50.47 12 12 2 0.20 ( 9) 2 Carolina 6 3 3 20 13 6 0.98 ( 6) 50.23 14 10 3 0.20 ( 10) 3 NY Islanders 6 5 2 18 14 8 0.65 ( 7) 50.05 12 9 6 0.61 ( 2) 4 Pittsburgh 6 1 3 16 16 6 0.41 ( 11) 50.08 10 15 3 -0.22 ( 19) 5 Philadelphia 2 2 6 15 15 8 -0.38 ( 18) 49.99 13 13 2 -0.24 ( 21) 6 New Jersey 1 7 2 17 19 3 -0.49 ( 19) 49.80 16 12 1 0.59 ( 3) 7 NY Rangers 3 6 2 17 22 2 -1.00 ( 24) 49.83 14 16 0 0.21 ( 8) 8 Columbus 2 7 2 13 20 5 -1.88 ( 27) 49.63 11 13 3 0.14 ( 12) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 7 1 3 28 5 5 7.02 ( 1) 51.76 21 4 2 -0.19 ( 18) 2 Dallas 6 2 2 22 11 6 3.69 ( 2) 50.89 16 9 4 -0.24 ( 20) 3 Minnesota 6 5 1 21 15 4 1.65 ( 5) 50.42 15 10 3 -0.35 ( 28) 4 Arizona 6 6 0 18 22 0 -0.71 ( 21) 49.97 12 16 0 -0.25 ( 22) 5 Nashville 5 9 1 15 21 2 -1.07 ( 25) 49.72 10 12 1 -0.35 ( 27) 6 Winnipeg 4 8 0 14 21 2 -2.01 ( 28) 49.72 10 13 2 -0.27 ( 23) 7 Chicago 2 5 1 13 22 4 -2.70 ( 31) 49.44 11 17 3 -0.28 ( 24) 8 St Louis 5 5 0 15 23 2 -3.01 ( 32) 49.21 10 18 2 -0.33 ( 25) --- West CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Los Angeles 3 3 3 15 17 6 0.40 ( 12) 50.16 12 14 3 0.39 ( 5) 2 Edmonton 5 3 1 20 18 2 0.31 ( 13) 50.10 15 15 1 0.25 ( 7) 3 Las Vegas 5 5 1 16 15 6 0.31 ( 14) 50.05 11 10 5 0.57 ( 4) 4 Anaheim 3 5 1 17 18 4 -0.35 ( 17) 49.89 14 13 3 0.09 ( 16) 5 Seattle 8 4 1 16 17 4 -0.82 ( 22) 49.70 8 13 3 0.11 ( 15) 6 San Jose 5 8 1 18 19 2 -0.83 ( 23) 49.70 13 11 1 0.91 ( 1) 7 Vancouver 3 5 1 12 23 4 -2.16 ( 29) 49.54 9 18 3 0.38 ( 6) 8 Calgary 6 5 1 15 20 4 -2.18 ( 30) 49.46 9 15 3 -0.53 ( 32)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Central 0.36 2 East 0.28 3 North 0.02 4 West -0.67PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 31-Dec-2025 NY Rangers Washington 5.1 HOME by 0.71 31-Dec-2025 Nashville Las Vegas 6.3 HOME by 0.40 31-Dec-2025 Tampa Bay Anaheim 6.4 AWAY by -0.68 31-Dec-2025 Minnesota San Jose 5.5 AWAY by -0.65 31-Dec-2025 Winnipeg Detroit 6.2 HOME by 0.27 31-Dec-2025 New Jersey Columbus 5.6 AWAY by -0.10 31-Dec-2025 Buffalo Dallas 5.7 HOME by 1.01 31-Dec-2025 St Louis Colorado 6.0 HOME by 2.63 31-Dec-2025 Philadelphia Calgary 5.4 AWAY by -0.46 31-Dec-2025 Boston Edmonton 7.7 HOME by 0.31 01-Jan-2026 Washington Ottawa 5.6 AWAY by -0.64 01-Jan-2026 Arizona NY Islanders 4.9 HOME by 0.16 01-Jan-2026 Winnipeg Toronto 6.1 HOME by 0.28 01-Jan-2026 Detroit Pittsburgh 6.6 HOME by 0.24 01-Jan-2026 Montreal Carolina 6.6 HOME by 0.27 01-Jan-2026 Dallas Chicago 5.8 AWAY by -1.37 01-Jan-2026 Nashville Seattle 5.3 HOME by 0.05 01-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay Los Angeles 4.5 AWAY by -0.41 02-Jan-2026 Las Vegas St Louis 5.3 AWAY by -0.78 02-Jan-2026 NY Rangers Florida 5.7 HOME by 0.35 02-Jan-2026 Seattle Vancouver 6.1 AWAY by -0.09 02-Jan-2026 Minnesota Anaheim 6.2 AWAY by -0.46 03-Jan-2026 Pittsburgh Detroit 5.9 AWAY by -0.09 03-Jan-2026 Arizona New Jersey 5.3 AWAY by -0.10 03-Jan-2026 Buffalo Columbus 6.4 AWAY by -0.24 03-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Edmonton 7.0 HOME by 0.18 03-Jan-2026 Montreal St Louis 6.2 AWAY by -0.75 03-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay San Jose 5.8 AWAY by -0.87 03-Jan-2026 Winnipeg Ottawa 5.4 HOME by 0.11 03-Jan-2026 Toronto NY Islanders 6.2 HOME by 0.20 03-Jan-2026 Chicago Washington 6.0 HOME by 1.10 03-Jan-2026 Colorado Carolina 6.3 AWAY by -1.46 03-Jan-2026 Nashville Calgary 5.6 AWAY by -0.19 03-Jan-2026 Minnesota Los Angeles 4.3 AWAY by -0.19 03-Jan-2026 Boston Vancouver 6.9 AWAY by -0.25 04-Jan-2026 Montreal Dallas 5.7 HOME by 0.93 04-Jan-2026 Pittsburgh Columbus 5.5 AWAY by -0.37 04-Jan-2026 Colorado Florida 6.3 AWAY by -1.58 04-Jan-2026 Carolina New Jersey 5.8 AWAY by -0.36 04-Jan-2026 Las Vegas Chicago 4.7 AWAY by -0.54
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.