Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
On the Predictions tab, all those games already have home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total.
Shootouts and overtimes make predicting scores tricky, and to deal with that all games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated 21-Jan-2026 07 AM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Colorado 33 9 5 5.88 51.65 1 2 Tampa Bay 29 15 4 4.10 51.04 2 3 Dallas 25 19 6 1.81 50.56 7 4 Carolina 27 17 6 1.66 50.43 4 5 Detroit 28 18 4 1.39 50.13 3 6 Boston 26 21 3 1.20 50.23 6 7 Pittsburgh 22 18 8 1.20 50.29 8 8 Montreal 26 18 6 1.16 50.18 5 9 Washington 24 21 5 0.97 50.29 13 10 Minnesota 25 20 6 0.94 50.27 11 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 NY Islanders 23 17 9 0.85 50.13 9 12 Las Vegas 23 19 6 0.85 50.22 10 13 Buffalo 24 22 3 0.78 50.20 12 14 Arizona 25 24 0 0.57 50.27 16 15 Edmonton 25 23 3 0.36 50.22 19 16 Toronto 24 24 1 0.10 50.06 18 17 Florida 23 22 3 -0.08 49.80 14 18 San Jose 23 23 3 -0.49 49.71 15 19 Los Angeles 17 23 9 -0.63 49.94 22 20 New Jersey 23 24 3 -0.63 49.67 17 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Ottawa 20 26 3 -0.98 49.82 24 22 Nashville 20 26 3 -1.00 49.64 20 23 Seattle 20 23 5 -1.04 49.75 23 24 Anaheim 20 24 5 -1.06 49.69 21 25 Philadelphia 18 22 8 -1.24 49.69 25 26 Columbus 17 26 6 -1.70 49.65 27 27 Winnipeg 19 28 2 -1.75 49.82 31 28 Calgary 19 26 4 -1.98 49.49 26 29 NY Rangers 19 30 2 -2.09 49.53 29 30 Chicago 18 26 5 -2.19 49.47 28 31 St Louis 18 29 3 -2.98 49.14 30 32 Vancouver 12 32 5 -3.98 49.03 32
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by win-loss percentage. As on the front page, overtime games get recorded as ties to make the predictions hopefully more accurate. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NHL Computer Ratings (Last updated 21-Jan-2026 07 AM ET) --- East CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 5 4 1 29 15 4 4.10 ( 2) 51.04 24 11 3 -0.09 ( 19) 2 Detroit 9 5 1 28 18 4 1.39 ( 5) 50.13 19 13 3 -0.65 ( 32) 3 Boston 7 8 1 26 21 3 1.20 ( 6) 50.23 19 13 2 -0.26 ( 24) 4 Montreal 8 6 2 26 18 6 1.16 ( 8) 50.18 18 12 4 -0.48 ( 30) 5 Buffalo 8 5 0 24 22 3 0.78 ( 13) 50.20 16 17 3 -0.39 ( 29) 6 Toronto 6 7 1 24 24 1 0.10 ( 16) 50.06 18 17 0 -0.32 ( 27) 7 Florida 5 8 0 23 22 3 -0.08 ( 17) 49.80 18 14 3 0.05 ( 13) 8 Ottawa 5 10 0 20 26 3 -0.98 ( 21) 49.82 15 16 3 -0.60 ( 31) --- North CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Carolina 8 3 3 27 17 6 1.66 ( 4) 50.43 19 14 3 0.36 ( 5) 2 Pittsburgh 9 1 4 22 18 8 1.20 ( 7) 50.29 13 17 4 -0.03 ( 16) 3 Washington 9 3 2 24 21 5 0.97 ( 9) 50.29 15 18 3 0.22 ( 8) 4 NY Islanders 7 5 2 23 17 9 0.85 ( 11) 50.13 16 12 7 0.48 ( 3) 5 New Jersey 2 11 2 23 24 3 -0.63 ( 20) 49.67 21 13 1 0.52 ( 2) 6 Philadelphia 2 4 6 18 22 8 -1.24 ( 25) 49.69 16 18 2 -0.04 ( 17) 7 Columbus 2 9 3 17 26 6 -1.70 ( 26) 49.65 15 17 3 0.10 ( 11) 8 NY Rangers 4 7 2 19 30 2 -2.09 ( 29) 49.53 15 23 0 0.21 ( 9) --- Central CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Colorado 8 2 3 33 9 5 5.88 ( 1) 51.65 25 7 2 -0.06 ( 18) 2 Dallas 6 4 2 25 19 6 1.81 ( 3) 50.56 19 15 4 -0.11 ( 20) 3 Minnesota 6 6 1 25 20 6 0.94 ( 10) 50.27 19 14 5 -0.33 ( 28) 4 Arizona 8 6 0 25 24 0 0.57 ( 14) 50.27 17 18 0 -0.18 ( 22) 5 Nashville 6 10 1 20 26 3 -1.00 ( 22) 49.64 14 16 2 -0.27 ( 25) 6 Winnipeg 6 9 0 19 28 2 -1.75 ( 27) 49.82 13 19 2 -0.16 ( 21) 7 Chicago 6 5 1 18 26 5 -2.19 ( 30) 49.47 12 21 4 -0.22 ( 23) 8 St Louis 5 9 0 18 29 3 -2.98 ( 31) 49.14 13 20 3 -0.01 ( 15) --- West CW CL OT W L OT Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Las Vegas 7 5 1 23 19 6 0.85 ( 12) 50.22 16 14 5 0.07 ( 12) 2 Edmonton 6 3 2 25 23 3 0.36 ( 15) 50.22 19 20 1 0.02 ( 14) 3 San Jose 6 9 1 23 23 3 -0.49 ( 18) 49.71 17 14 2 1.01 ( 1) 4 Los Angeles 3 6 5 17 23 9 -0.63 ( 19) 49.94 14 17 4 0.47 ( 4) 5 Seattle 9 4 2 20 23 5 -1.04 ( 23) 49.75 11 19 3 0.15 ( 10) 6 Anaheim 4 5 2 20 24 5 -1.06 ( 24) 49.69 16 19 3 0.35 ( 6) 7 Calgary 6 6 1 19 26 4 -1.98 ( 28) 49.49 13 20 3 -0.28 ( 26) 8 Vancouver 3 6 2 12 32 5 -3.98 ( 32) 49.03 9 26 3 0.28 ( 7)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.96 2 Central 0.16 3 North -0.12 4 West -1.00PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Jan-2026 Detroit Toronto 6.1 HOME by 0.06 21-Jan-2026 Anaheim Colorado 7.5 HOME by 2.09 21-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Arizona 5.9 HOME by 0.72 21-Jan-2026 Pittsburgh Calgary 4.9 AWAY by -0.67 21-Jan-2026 Washington Vancouver 6.3 AWAY by -1.13 21-Jan-2026 NY Islanders Seattle 5.2 AWAY by -0.25 22-Jan-2026 Las Vegas Boston 5.7 HOME by 0.14 22-Jan-2026 Buffalo Montreal 6.5 HOME by 0.11 22-Jan-2026 Chicago Carolina 6.6 HOME by 1.08 22-Jan-2026 Dallas Columbus 6.4 AWAY by -0.78 22-Jan-2026 Ottawa Nashville 6.8 AWAY by -0.05 22-Jan-2026 Florida Winnipeg 6.7 HOME by 0.16 22-Jan-2026 Pittsburgh Edmonton 6.2 HOME by 0.06 22-Jan-2026 Detroit Minnesota 5.6 HOME by 0.28 23-Jan-2026 Las Vegas Toronto 6.2 AWAY by -0.03 23-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay Chicago 5.3 AWAY by -1.43 23-Jan-2026 St Louis Dallas 5.4 HOME by 1.55 23-Jan-2026 Philadelphia Colorado 6.3 HOME by 2.09 23-Jan-2026 Washington Calgary 5.5 AWAY by -0.67 23-Jan-2026 New Jersey Vancouver 5.8 AWAY by -0.50 23-Jan-2026 NY Rangers San Jose 6.4 HOME by 0.31 23-Jan-2026 Anaheim Seattle 6.5 HOME by 0.18 24-Jan-2026 Buffalo NY Islanders 5.9 HOME by 0.06 24-Jan-2026 Arizona Nashville 5.4 AWAY by -0.51 24-Jan-2026 Montreal Boston 6.6 HOME by 0.19 24-Jan-2026 Carolina Ottawa 5.6 AWAY by -0.48 24-Jan-2026 Tampa Bay Columbus 6.0 AWAY by -1.26 24-Jan-2026 Detroit Winnipeg 5.9 AWAY by -0.17 24-Jan-2026 Los Angeles St Louis 4.6 AWAY by -0.67 24-Jan-2026 Florida Minnesota 6.4 HOME by 0.60 24-Jan-2026 Washington Edmonton 6.7 HOME by 0.06 25-Jan-2026 Colorado Toronto 6.3 AWAY by -1.46 25-Jan-2026 New Jersey Seattle 4.9 HOME by 0.21 25-Jan-2026 Las Vegas Ottawa 5.5 AWAY by -0.27 25-Jan-2026 Pittsburgh Vancouver 5.8 AWAY by -1.13 25-Jan-2026 Florida Chicago 5.8 AWAY by -0.19 25-Jan-2026 Anaheim Calgary 6.5 AWAY by -0.07
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NBA: in 2023-24 my system predicted 64.2% of game winners correctly
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
My suspicion is that in the NHL, since won-lost records are not nearly as spread out as in football, that the predictions are in the 65 percent range. And that, while comparable to other systems, it's probably less accurate than the Vegas oddsmakers. But you would expect that -- you can't beat an added human touch!
Where I've seen value is in the over-under predictions. When those deviate far away from Vegas (which is usually 5.5, but sometimes 5 or 6), that's often a sign that something is worth investigating. I've had mild betting success with those.
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.