Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (also given below).

The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.

I wouldn't rely too much on early-season results, which are based almost entirely on last year's games. Wait until 3-4 weeks into the season, at least.

Ratings last updated Monday 02/13/23 08:23 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Buffalo               14  4  0     3.66    57.73    3
   2 Kansas City           17  3  0     3.47    55.66    1
   3 Cincinnati            14  5  0     3.26    56.19    2
   4 Philadelphia          16  4  0     3.17    56.04    4
   5 San Francisco         15  5  0     2.83    56.02    5
   6 Dallas                13  6  0     2.64    55.76    6
   7 Baltimore             10  8  0     1.53    53.13    9
   8 Miami                  9  9  0     1.18    53.20   11
   9 Pittsburgh             9  8  0     0.89    50.19    7
  10 Detroit                9  8  0     0.54    50.79   12

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 NY Giants             10  8  1     0.43    49.48   10
  12 NY Jets                7 10  0     0.34    51.16   14
  13 Minnesota             13  5  0     0.33    48.26    8
  14 Jacksonville          10  9  0     0.22    50.87   15
  15 Green Bay              8  9  0     0.17    50.48   13
  16 New England            8  9  0     0.11    51.08   17
  17 Cleveland              7 10  0    -0.26    50.40   20
  18 Washington             8  8  1    -0.31    49.01   16
  19 Carolina               7 10  0    -0.58    49.15   19
  20 Atlanta                7 10  0    -0.82    48.98   23

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 LA Chargers           10  8  0    -0.88    47.87   18
  22 New Orleans            7 10  0    -0.91    48.97   24
  23 Las Vegas              6 11  0    -1.01    48.63   25
  24 Seattle                9  9  0    -1.04    48.00   21
  25 Tennessee              7 10  0    -1.42    46.67   22
  26 Tampa Bay              8 10  0    -1.70    46.15   26
  27 Denver                 5 12  0    -2.11    45.91   27
  28 Chicago                3 14  0    -2.32    45.54   28
  29 LA Rams                5 12  0    -2.46    45.93   30
  30 Houston                3 13  1    -2.88    44.23   29
  31 Arizona                4 13  0    -2.97    44.96   32
  32 Indianapolis           4 12  1    -3.12    43.56   31

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 NFC East                       1.48
   2 AFC North                      1.36
   3 AFC East                       1.32
   4 AFC West                      -0.13
   5 NFC North                     -0.32
   6 NFC West                      -0.91
   7 NFC South                     -1.00
   8 AFC South                     -1.80

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------

Current home field advantage is:  2.56

MAE for games to date:  8.31

These ratings fit to produce 0.67 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 5.12:  0.80

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.41.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.35.