Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (also given below).
The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.
I wouldn't rely too much on early-season results, which are based almost entirely on last year's games. Wait until 3-4 weeks into the season, at least.
Ratings last updated Tuesday 09/19/23 10:11 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Kansas City 1 1 3.39 57.36 1 2 Dallas 2 0 3.24 57.83 7 3 Buffalo 1 1 2.98 57.16 9 4 San Francisco 2 0 2.91 56.55 5 5 Philadelphia 2 0 2.83 56.74 8 6 Jacksonville 1 1 2.13 54.31 4 7 Cincinnati 0 2 1.86 54.85 14 8 Baltimore 2 0 1.60 53.16 6 9 Pittsburgh 1 1 0.86 50.78 3 10 Washington 2 0 0.63 49.96 2 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Detroit 1 1 0.54 50.90 10 12 Cleveland 1 1 0.47 51.33 18 13 Miami 2 0 0.46 51.14 15 14 Green Bay 1 1 0.38 51.02 17 15 LA Chargers 0 2 0.25 50.91 20 16 NY Jets 1 1 0.13 50.83 23 17 Seattle 1 1 -0.36 49.02 16 18 Atlanta 2 0 -0.45 48.34 11 19 New Orleans 2 0 -0.46 48.36 12 20 New England 0 2 -0.60 49.57 26 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Tennessee 1 1 -0.66 48.36 19 22 Tampa Bay 2 0 -0.74 47.77 13 23 Las Vegas 1 1 -0.90 48.05 24 24 NY Giants 1 1 -1.14 47.20 21 25 Minnesota 0 2 -1.35 47.60 27 26 Denver 0 2 -1.46 47.68 29 27 Indianapolis 1 1 -1.96 45.04 22 28 Carolina 0 2 -2.31 45.39 30 29 LA Rams 1 1 -2.87 43.89 31 30 Arizona 0 2 -2.98 43.32 28 31 Houston 0 2 -3.07 42.66 25 32 Chicago 0 2 -3.34 42.94 32
Divisional rankings: Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 NFC East 1.39 2 AFC North 1.20 3 AFC East 0.74 4 AFC West 0.32 5 NFC West -0.82 6 AFC South -0.89 7 NFC North -0.94 8 NFC South -0.99PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Sep-2023 NY Giants San Francisco 39.8 HOME by 10.72 24-Sep-2023 Indianapolis Baltimore 34.9 HOME by 9.48 24-Sep-2023 Tennessee Cleveland 37.6 HOME by 4.34 24-Sep-2023 Atlanta Detroit 48.8 HOME by 3.93 24-Sep-2023 New Orleans Green Bay 36.7 HOME by 4.02 24-Sep-2023 Houston Jacksonville 38.8 HOME by 13.01 24-Sep-2023 Denver Miami 31.7 HOME by 4.82 24-Sep-2023 LA Chargers Minnesota 55.6 AWAY by -1.94 24-Sep-2023 New England NY Jets 34.8 HOME by 2.63 24-Sep-2023 Buffalo Washington 39.6 AWAY by -5.83 24-Sep-2023 Carolina Seattle 43.7 HOME by 5.00 24-Sep-2023 Dallas Arizona 45.5 AWAY by -13.14 24-Sep-2023 Chicago Kansas City 48.6 HOME by 15.79 24-Sep-2023 Pittsburgh Las Vegas 48.1 Pitt by -2.73 25-Sep-2023 Philadelphia Tampa Bay 50.3 AWAY by -7.61 25-Sep-2023 LA Rams Cincinnati 41.2 HOME by 12.33 28-Sep-2023 Detroit Green Bay 43.3 HOME by 1.49 01-Oct-2023 Miami Buffalo 60.3 HOME by 7.39 01-Oct-2023 Minnesota Carolina 47.9 AWAY by -0.85 01-Oct-2023 Denver Chicago 39.4 AWAY by -3.38 01-Oct-2023 Baltimore Cleveland 45.0 AWAY by -0.46 01-Oct-2023 Pittsburgh Houston 33.3 AWAY by -6.75 01-Oct-2023 LA Rams Indianapolis 36.9 HOME by 2.52 01-Oct-2023 Tampa Bay New Orleans 30.5 HOME by 1.96 01-Oct-2023 Washington Philadelphia 46.3 HOME by 8.15 01-Oct-2023 Cincinnati Tennessee 39.8 AWAY by -5.13 01-Oct-2023 Las Vegas LA Chargers 43.6 LA C by 2.85 01-Oct-2023 New England Dallas 49.6 HOME by 9.62 01-Oct-2023 Arizona San Francisco 39.7 HOME by 14.59 01-Oct-2023 Kansas City NY Jets 45.5 AWAY by -5.16 02-Oct-2023 Seattle NY Giants 54.4 AWAY by -0.45 05-Oct-2023 Chicago Washington 41.5 HOME by 8.39Current home field advantage is: 1.37 MAE for games to date: 8.44 These ratings fit to produce 0.65 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 2.73: 0.72 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.59. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.32.
About the author
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.
