National Football League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in home field advantage (on the right). Predictions are already calculated for upcoming games, on the right.


Ratings last updated Tuesday 12/11/18, 12:14 PM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 New Orleans 11 2 0 4.37 62.10 2 2 Kansas City 11 2 0 3.61 58.71 3 3 LA Rams 11 2 0 3.32 56.18 1 4 Baltimore 7 6 0 2.50 58.10 8 5 LA Chargers 10 3 0 2.25 54.08 4 6 Houston 9 4 0 2.10 54.09 5 7 Chicago 9 4 0 2.04 55.60 7 8 Pittsburgh 7 5 1 1.77 55.47 9 9 New England 9 4 0 1.64 53.48 6 10 Seattle 8 5 0 0.88 53.12 11 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Indianapolis 7 6 0 0.88 52.23 10 12 Denver 6 7 0 0.67 52.32 13 13 Minnesota 6 6 1 0.39 50.90 12 14 Cleveland 5 7 1 -0.06 49.81 14 15 Green Bay 5 7 1 -0.42 50.37 20 16 Carolina 6 7 0 -0.42 49.05 16 17 Cincinnati 5 8 0 -0.51 48.00 15 18 Dallas 8 5 0 -0.74 47.72 17 19 Tennessee 7 6 0 -0.93 47.15 18 20 Jacksonville 4 9 0 -1.02 48.22 23 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 NY Giants 5 8 0 -1.18 47.79 24 22 Miami 7 6 0 -1.22 45.80 19 23 Philadelphia 6 7 0 -1.25 47.02 22 24 Tampa Bay 5 8 0 -1.47 46.67 28 25 Oakland 3 10 0 -1.59 44.68 21 26 Washington 6 7 0 -1.71 45.31 26 27 Arizona 3 10 0 -1.96 43.95 25 28 Detroit 5 8 0 -2.10 44.55 29 29 Buffalo 4 9 0 -2.19 43.09 27 30 San Francisco 3 10 0 -2.25 45.55 30 31 NY Jets 4 9 0 -2.56 45.06 31 32 Atlanta 4 9 0 -2.84 43.84 32
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 13-Dec-2018 LA Chargers Kansas City 53.0 HOME by 6.61 15-Dec-2018 Cleveland Denver 49.2 HOME by 4.49 15-Dec-2018 Houston NY Jets 40.4 AWAY by -7.04 16-Dec-2018 Arizona Atlanta 41.2 HOME by 1.88 16-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Baltimore 61.7 HOME by 13.41 16-Dec-2018 Detroit Buffalo 45.4 HOME by 0.53 16-Dec-2018 Green Bay Chicago 42.3 HOME by 7.21 16-Dec-2018 Oakland Cincinnati 47.0 HOME by 5.30 16-Dec-2018 Dallas Indianapolis 43.9 HOME by 6.50 16-Dec-2018 Washington Jacksonville 30.0 HOME by 4.89 16-Dec-2018 Miami Minnesota 35.0 HOME by 7.09 16-Dec-2018 Tennessee NY Giants 31.5 HOME by 2.62 16-Dec-2018 Seattle San Francisco 47.1 AWAY by -5.58 16-Dec-2018 New England Pittsburgh 56.9 HOME by 3.97 16-Dec-2018 Philadelphia LA Rams 62.9 HOME by 11.14 17-Dec-2018 New Orleans Carolina 57.7 AWAY by -11.06 23-Dec-2018 Atlanta Carolina 46.9 HOME by 7.20 23-Dec-2018 Cincinnati Cleveland 38.8 HOME by 3.80 23-Dec-2018 Tampa Bay Dallas 59.0 HOME by 3.03 23-Dec-2018 Minnesota Detroit 45.2 AWAY by -4.36 23-Dec-2018 NY Giants Indianapolis 56.2 HOME by 6.43 23-Dec-2018 Jacksonville Miami 44.1 AWAY by -0.44 23-Dec-2018 Buffalo New England 47.6 HOME by 12.38 23-Dec-2018 Green Bay NY Jets 44.5 AWAY by -3.33 23-Dec-2018 Houston Philadelphia 33.6 AWAY by -5.08 23-Dec-2018 Washington Tennessee 34.6 HOME by 3.83 23-Dec-2018 LA Rams Arizona 35.4 AWAY by -10.24 23-Dec-2018 Baltimore LA Chargers 39.2 AWAY by -2.03 23-Dec-2018 Chicago San Francisco 49.2 AWAY by -8.06 23-Dec-2018 Pittsburgh New Orleans 59.0 HOME by 8.62 23-Dec-2018 Kansas City Seattle 66.6 AWAY by -3.60 24-Dec-2018 Denver Oakland 41.8 AWAY by -5.65 30-Dec-2018 Cleveland Baltimore 47.6 HOME by 10.27 30-Dec-2018 Miami Buffalo 38.6 AWAY by -0.72 30-Dec-2018 Detroit Green Bay 55.8 HOME by 7.81 30-Dec-2018 Jacksonville Houston 41.6 HOME by 7.85 30-Dec-2018 Oakland Kansas City 47.4 HOME by 16.01 30-Dec-2018 Chicago Minnesota 40.9 AWAY by -2.71 30-Dec-2018 NY Jets New England 50.3 HOME by 10.41 30-Dec-2018 Carolina New Orleans 57.2 HOME by 15.04 30-Dec-2018 Dallas NY Giants 30.0 HOME by 2.06 30-Dec-2018 Cincinnati Pittsburgh 57.2 HOME by 9.46 30-Dec-2018 Atlanta Tampa Bay 36.6 HOME by 4.82 30-Dec-2018 Indianapolis Tennessee 37.9 AWAY by -3.09 30-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Washington 49.2 HOME by 0.28 30-Dec-2018 LA Chargers Denver 46.5 HOME by 0.22 30-Dec-2018 San Francisco LA Rams 58.9 HOME by 12.61 30-Dec-2018 Arizona Seattle 38.7 HOME by 11.15

Current home field advantage is: 1.99 MAE for games to date: 9.02 These ratings fit to produce 0.66 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 3.97: 0.79 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.61. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 4.94.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


[an error occurred while processing this directive] shopify stats