National Football League Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in home field advantage (on the right). Predictions are already calculated for upcoming games, on the right.


Ratings last updated Monday 10/08/18, 10:31 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Baltimore 3 2 0 3.99 59.26 2 2 Kansas City 5 0 0 2.62 54.79 3 3 New England 3 2 0 2.55 56.35 10 4 New Orleans 3 1 0 2.46 55.14 6 5 Pittsburgh 2 2 1 2.42 55.03 7 6 Cincinnati 4 1 0 2.24 51.90 1 7 Jacksonville 3 2 0 1.98 55.02 11 8 Chicago 3 1 0 1.88 53.40 8 9 LA Rams 5 0 0 1.82 52.57 5 10 Minnesota 2 2 1 1.64 52.81 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Carolina 3 1 0 1.50 51.16 4 12 LA Chargers 3 2 0 0.92 52.07 14 13 Cleveland 2 2 1 0.28 49.34 13 14 Philadelphia 2 3 0 -0.17 51.43 21 15 Green Bay 2 2 1 -0.26 48.61 15 16 Miami 3 2 0 -0.37 48.92 16 17 Buffalo 2 3 0 -0.38 46.78 12 18 Arizona 1 4 0 -0.98 48.54 23 19 Tampa Bay 2 2 0 -1.04 47.16 17 20 Tennessee 3 2 0 -1.12 47.45 20 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Indianapolis 1 4 0 -1.13 47.41 19 22 San Francisco 1 4 0 -1.22 49.74 28 23 Denver 2 3 0 -1.25 47.49 22 24 Washington 2 1 0 -1.64 46.81 25 25 Oakland 1 4 0 -1.70 46.21 24 26 Houston 2 3 0 -1.70 44.67 18 27 NY Jets 2 3 0 -1.73 47.97 29 28 Detroit 2 3 0 -1.78 46.47 26 29 Atlanta 1 4 0 -1.78 47.51 27 30 Seattle 2 3 0 -2.12 48.05 31 31 Dallas 2 3 0 -2.88 45.77 32 32 NY Giants 1 4 0 -3.05 44.19 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 08-Oct-2018 Washington New Orleans 45.7 HOME by 10.69 11-Oct-2018 Philadelphia NY Giants 46.7 AWAY by -4.89 14-Oct-2018 Tampa Bay Atlanta 52.6 HOME by 2.70 14-Oct-2018 Pittsburgh Cincinnati 59.7 AWAY by -0.77 14-Oct-2018 LA Chargers Cleveland 30.5 AWAY by -0.38 14-Oct-2018 Buffalo Houston 30.9 HOME by 0.24 14-Oct-2018 Chicago Miami 43.2 AWAY by -2.12 14-Oct-2018 Arizona Minnesota 28.6 HOME by 6.63 14-Oct-2018 Indianapolis NY Jets 36.7 HOME by 2.92 14-Oct-2018 Seattle Oakland 42.3 Seat by -1.83 14-Oct-2018 Carolina Washington 47.4 AWAY by -2.00 14-Oct-2018 LA Rams Denver 48.8 AWAY by -2.73 14-Oct-2018 Jacksonville Dallas 39.9 AWAY by -6.90 14-Oct-2018 Baltimore Tennessee 31.0 AWAY by -9.46 14-Oct-2018 Kansas City New England 65.4 HOME by 3.91 15-Oct-2018 San Francisco Green Bay 46.9 HOME by 1.22 18-Oct-2018 Denver Arizona 34.4 HOME by 3.40 21-Oct-2018 Tennessee LA Chargers 31.3 LA C by 4.63 21-Oct-2018 New England Chicago 33.1 AWAY by -0.60 21-Oct-2018 Buffalo Indianapolis 39.5 HOME by 2.98 21-Oct-2018 Houston Jacksonville 40.3 HOME by 12.71 21-Oct-2018 Cincinnati Kansas City 54.1 HOME by 5.25 21-Oct-2018 Detroit Miami 51.4 HOME by 4.81 21-Oct-2018 Minnesota NY Jets 42.9 AWAY by -2.49 21-Oct-2018 Carolina Philadelphia 43.1 HOME by 2.63 21-Oct-2018 Cleveland Tampa Bay 44.6 HOME by 0.18 21-Oct-2018 New Orleans Baltimore 55.2 HOME by 6.47 21-Oct-2018 Dallas Washington 27.0 HOME by 3.40 21-Oct-2018 LA Rams San Francisco 57.8 AWAY by -0.47 22-Oct-2018 NY Giants Atlanta 40.5 HOME by 5.67 25-Oct-2018 Miami Houston 34.9 AWAY by -1.90 28-Oct-2018 Philadelphia Jacksonville 47.9 Jack by 3.59 28-Oct-2018 Baltimore Carolina 44.2 AWAY by -5.74 28-Oct-2018 NY Jets Chicago 33.7 HOME by 7.79 28-Oct-2018 Tampa Bay Cincinnati 59.9 HOME by 7.10 28-Oct-2018 Seattle Detroit 49.0 HOME by 0.78 28-Oct-2018 Denver Kansas City 43.4 HOME by 9.66 28-Oct-2018 Washington NY Giants 38.4 AWAY by -0.26 28-Oct-2018 Cleveland Pittsburgh 58.3 HOME by 8.04 28-Oct-2018 Indianapolis Oakland 38.5 HOME by 1.16 28-Oct-2018 San Francisco Arizona 37.8 HOME by 1.15 28-Oct-2018 Green Bay LA Rams 52.7 HOME by 6.32 28-Oct-2018 New Orleans Minnesota 45.2 HOME by 0.03 29-Oct-2018 New England Buffalo 31.1 AWAY by -7.22 01-Nov-2018 Oakland San Francisco 49.4 HOME by 5.88

Current home field advantage is: 2.36 MAE for games to date: 9.17 These ratings fit to produce 0.67 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.71: 0.77 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.00. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.98.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


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