Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings
Welcome to 2026! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (consistently about 2.5 points).
How 2026 will work: I discovered that in previous years, using the preseason games actually hurt the early-season predictions. So this year, those are nowhere to be found. Let's see if it helps.
The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.
This year, the page has gotten rid of the Javascript and just has all of the ratings elements listed here on one page. Should not have any impact on scrapers. Let me know if you can't find anything.
Ratings
Ratings last updated 01-Sep-2026 21:31 EST Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Seattle 0 0 4.10 61.17 1 2 LA Rams 0 0 3.37 59.18 5 3 Houston 0 0 3.11 58.46 3 4 New England 0 0 2.27 56.18 2 5 Jacksonville 0 0 2.19 55.97 6 6 Denver 0 0 1.86 55.06 4 7 Indianapolis 0 0 1.71 54.65 20 8 Baltimore 0 0 1.41 53.85 14 9 Detroit 0 0 1.14 53.12 15 10 Buffalo 0 0 1.10 53.00 8 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 LA Chargers 0 0 1.03 52.79 11 12 Chicago 0 0 0.88 52.39 9 13 San Francisco 0 0 0.82 52.24 7 14 Kansas City 0 0 0.50 51.35 28 15 Philadelphia 0 0 0.44 51.19 12 16 Pittsburgh 0 0 0.31 50.83 10 17 Minnesota 0 0 0.19 50.52 13 18 NY Giants 0 0 -0.19 49.49 26 19 Green Bay 0 0 -0.25 49.31 19 20 Tampa Bay 0 0 -0.32 49.12 16 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Miami 0 0 -1.29 46.50 17 22 Dallas 0 0 -1.30 46.46 24 23 Cleveland 0 0 -1.37 46.28 23 24 Cincinnati 0 0 -1.68 45.41 25 25 Carolina 0 0 -1.72 45.32 18 26 Atlanta 0 0 -1.79 45.13 21 27 New Orleans 0 0 -1.84 44.99 22 28 Arizona 0 0 -2.02 44.50 29 29 Tennessee 0 0 -2.84 42.25 27 30 Washington 0 0 -2.93 42.03 30 31 Las Vegas 0 0 -3.16 41.38 32 32 NY Jets 0 0 -3.71 39.88 31
Predictions
Score predictions for the next week or two:
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 09-Sep-2026 New England Seattle 50.8 HOME by 6.90 10-Sep-2026 San Francisco LA Rams 50.9 LA R by 6.94 13-Sep-2026 Atlanta Pittsburgh 39.2 HOME by 7.62 13-Sep-2026 Baltimore Indianapolis 55.6 HOME by 2.71 13-Sep-2026 Buffalo Houston 47.2 HOME by 7.39 13-Sep-2026 Chicago Carolina 56.4 AWAY by -5.15 13-Sep-2026 Cleveland Jacksonville 46.6 HOME by 11.61 13-Sep-2026 New Orleans Detroit 47.0 HOME by 10.05 13-Sep-2026 NY Jets Tennessee 49.4 HOME by 4.29 13-Sep-2026 Tampa Bay Cincinnati 52.0 AWAY by -1.79 13-Sep-2026 Arizona LA Chargers 44.1 HOME by 10.21 13-Sep-2026 Green Bay Minnesota 39.0 HOME by 3.13 13-Sep-2026 Miami Las Vegas 36.6 AWAY by -3.19 13-Sep-2026 Washington Philadelphia 43.3 HOME by 11.08 13-Sep-2026 Dallas NY Giants 56.3 HOME by 4.95 14-Sep-2026 Denver Kansas City 37.2 AWAY by -1.79 17-Sep-2026 Detroit Buffalo 57.6 HOME by 1.80
Divisions
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by division record. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
--- AFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 New England 0 0 0 0 2.27 ( 4) 56.18 0 0 -99.00 ( 19) 2 Buffalo 0 0 0 0 1.10 ( 10) 53.00 0 0 -99.00 ( 4) 3 Miami 0 0 0 0 -1.29 ( 21) 46.50 0 0 -99.00 ( 17) 4 NY Jets 0 0 0 0 -3.71 ( 32) 39.88 0 0 -99.00 ( 22) --- AFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Baltimore 0 0 0 0 1.41 ( 8) 53.85 0 0 -99.00 ( 3) 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 0 0.31 ( 16) 50.83 0 0 -99.00 ( 25) 3 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 -1.37 ( 23) 46.28 0 0 -99.00 ( 8) 4 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 -1.68 ( 24) 45.41 0 0 -99.00 ( 7) --- AFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Houston 0 0 0 0 3.11 ( 3) 58.46 0 0 -99.00 ( 13) 2 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 2.19 ( 5) 55.97 0 0 -99.00 ( 15) 3 Indianapolis 0 0 0 0 1.71 ( 7) 54.65 0 0 -99.00 ( 14) 4 Tennessee 0 0 0 0 -2.84 ( 29) 42.25 0 0 -99.00 ( 31) --- AFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 0 0 0 0 1.86 ( 6) 55.06 0 0 -99.00 ( 10) 2 LA Chargers 0 0 0 0 1.03 ( 11) 52.79 0 0 -99.00 ( 26) 3 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0.50 ( 14) 51.35 0 0 -99.00 ( 16) 4 Las Vegas 0 0 0 0 -3.16 ( 31) 41.38 0 0 -99.00 ( 23) --- NFC East CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Philadelphia 0 0 0 0 0.44 ( 15) 51.19 0 0 -99.00 ( 24) 2 NY Giants 0 0 0 0 -0.19 ( 18) 49.49 0 0 -99.00 ( 21) 3 Dallas 0 0 0 0 -1.30 ( 22) 46.46 0 0 -99.00 ( 9) 4 Washington 0 0 0 0 -2.93 ( 30) 42.03 0 0 -99.00 ( 32) --- NFC North CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Detroit 0 0 0 0 1.14 ( 9) 53.12 0 0 -99.00 ( 11) 2 Chicago 0 0 0 0 0.88 ( 12) 52.39 0 0 -99.00 ( 6) 3 Minnesota 0 0 0 0 0.19 ( 17) 50.52 0 0 -99.00 ( 18) 4 Green Bay 0 0 0 0 -0.25 ( 19) 49.31 0 0 -99.00 ( 12) --- NFC South CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 0 0 0 0 -0.32 ( 20) 49.12 0 0 -99.00 ( 30) 2 Carolina 0 0 0 0 -1.72 ( 25) 45.32 0 0 -99.00 ( 5) 3 Atlanta 0 0 0 0 -1.79 ( 26) 45.13 0 0 -99.00 ( 2) 4 New Orleans 0 0 0 0 -1.84 ( 27) 44.99 0 0 -99.00 ( 20) --- NFC West CW CL W L Rating Rank Points NCWNCL Non-Conf Sched 1 Seattle 0 0 0 0 4.10 ( 1) 61.17 0 0 -99.00 ( 28) 2 LA Rams 0 0 0 0 3.37 ( 2) 59.18 0 0 -99.00 ( 29) 3 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0.82 ( 13) 52.24 0 0 -99.00 ( 27) 4 Arizona 0 0 0 0 -2.02 ( 28) 44.50 0 0 -99.00 ( 1)
Division Rankings
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 NFC West 1.57 2 AFC South 1.04 3 NFC North 0.49 4 AFC West 0.05 5 AFC North -0.33 6 AFC East -0.41 7 NFC East -0.99 8 NFC South -1.42
Details
Links to Original Text FilesFeel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NFL in 2023-24, my system predicted 62.8% of game winners correct. By comparison, the ESPN FPI (yep, they run it for pro too) got 64.4%. That is a difference, over an entire season, of just four more games correct.
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
Although the system is comparable to other computer systems (FPI, Sagarin, and several others), the midweek/updated Vegas line predicted 66.3% of last year's NFL winners correctly. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.