Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings
Welcome to 2025! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (consistently about 2.5 points).
New in 2025: a slightly revised prediction formula that, I hope, will be slightly better. Let's see if it slightly works.
The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.
I wouldn't rely too much on early-season results, which are based almost entirely on last year's games and preseason games. Wait until 3-4 weeks into the season, at least.
Ratings last updated 07-Oct-2025 15:05 EST Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Detroit 5 0 0 3.79 59.49 1 2 Philadelphia 4 1 0 2.81 55.41 2 3 Denver 3 2 0 2.67 58.34 4 4 Baltimore 1 4 0 2.10 56.47 7 5 Indianapolis 4 1 0 2.03 56.64 10 6 Houston 2 3 0 1.73 57.40 16 7 Buffalo 4 1 0 1.61 53.07 3 8 LA Rams 3 2 0 1.50 52.74 5 9 Tampa Bay 4 1 0 1.46 53.34 8 10 Minnesota 3 2 0 1.00 51.61 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Seattle 3 2 0 0.96 52.52 13 12 LA Chargers 3 2 0 0.90 53.24 15 13 Green Bay 1 2 1 0.74 51.33 12 14 Pittsburgh 3 1 0 0.65 50.20 11 15 San Francisco 4 1 0 0.58 48.62 6 16 Chicago 2 2 0 0.47 50.76 14 17 Kansas City 2 3 0 0.40 52.20 18 18 Washington 3 2 0 -0.17 48.61 17 19 Jacksonville 4 1 0 -0.45 48.48 20 20 New England 3 2 0 -0.56 48.40 21 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Arizona 2 3 0 -0.66 48.04 23 22 Miami 1 4 0 -0.81 48.51 24 23 Dallas 2 2 1 -0.83 47.07 22 24 Cincinnati 2 3 0 -1.04 45.51 19 25 NY Giants 1 4 0 -1.48 47.24 26 26 Cleveland 1 4 0 -1.63 45.59 25 27 Atlanta 2 2 0 -2.03 44.82 28 28 Tennessee 1 4 0 -2.23 43.58 27 29 NY Jets 0 5 0 -2.88 45.32 30 30 Carolina 2 3 0 -3.38 41.13 29 31 Las Vegas 1 4 0 -3.60 42.35 32 32 New Orleans 1 4 0 -3.62 41.96 31
Teams are sorted by computer ranking (in parentheses), not necessarily by division record. Playoff games between division teams end up getting counted here, too.
NFL Computer Ratings (Last updated 07-Oct-2025 15:05 EST) --- AFC East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Buffalo 2 1 0 4 1 0 1.61 ( 7) 53.07 2 0 0 -0.76 ( 22) 2 New England 2 0 0 3 2 0 -0.56 ( 20) 48.40 1 2 0 -2.11 ( 30) 3 Miami 1 2 0 1 4 0 -0.81 ( 22) 48.51 0 2 0 -0.68 ( 21) 4 NY Jets 0 2 0 0 5 0 -2.88 ( 29) 45.32 0 3 0 0.42 ( 11) --- AFC North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Baltimore 1 0 0 1 4 0 2.10 ( 4) 56.47 0 4 0 1.88 ( 1) 2 Pittsburgh 0 0 0 3 1 0 0.65 ( 14) 50.20 3 1 0 -0.37 ( 17) 3 Cincinnati 1 0 0 2 3 0 -1.04 ( 24) 45.51 1 3 0 1.75 ( 3) 4 Cleveland 0 2 0 1 4 0 -1.63 ( 26) 45.59 1 2 0 1.85 ( 2) --- AFC South CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Indianapolis 1 0 0 4 1 0 2.03 ( 5) 56.64 3 1 0 -0.06 ( 15) 2 Houston 1 1 0 2 3 0 1.73 ( 6) 57.40 1 2 0 1.68 ( 4) 3 Jacksonville 1 0 0 4 1 0 -0.45 ( 19) 48.48 3 1 0 -0.86 ( 25) 4 Tennessee 0 2 0 1 4 0 -2.23 ( 28) 43.58 1 2 0 1.17 ( 6) --- AFC West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 0 1 0 3 2 0 2.67 ( 3) 58.34 3 1 0 0.39 ( 13) 2 LA Chargers 3 0 0 3 2 0 0.90 ( 12) 53.24 0 2 0 -0.82 ( 24) 3 Kansas City 0 1 0 2 3 0 0.40 ( 17) 52.20 2 2 0 0.75 ( 8) 4 Las Vegas 0 1 0 1 4 0 -3.60 ( 31) 42.35 1 3 0 0.44 ( 10) --- NFC East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Philadelphia 1 0 0 4 1 0 2.81 ( 2) 55.41 3 1 0 1.50 ( 5) 2 Washington 1 0 0 3 2 0 -0.17 ( 18) 48.61 2 2 0 -1.00 ( 27) 3 Dallas 1 1 0 2 2 1 -0.83 ( 23) 47.07 1 1 1 -0.56 ( 19) 4 NY Giants 0 2 0 1 4 0 -1.48 ( 25) 47.24 1 2 0 -0.78 ( 23) --- NFC North CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Detroit 2 0 0 5 0 0 3.79 ( 1) 59.49 3 0 0 -0.19 ( 16) 2 Minnesota 1 0 0 3 2 0 1.00 ( 10) 51.61 2 2 0 -1.01 ( 28) 3 Green Bay 0 1 0 1 2 1 0.74 ( 13) 51.33 1 1 1 -0.88 ( 26) 4 Chicago 0 2 0 2 2 0 0.47 ( 16) 50.76 2 0 0 -2.22 ( 31) --- NFC South CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Tampa Bay 1 0 0 4 1 0 1.46 ( 9) 53.34 3 1 0 0.65 ( 9) 2 Atlanta 0 2 0 2 2 0 -2.03 ( 27) 44.82 2 0 0 0.42 ( 12) 3 Carolina 1 0 0 2 3 0 -3.38 ( 30) 41.13 1 3 0 -0.62 ( 20) 4 New Orleans 0 0 0 1 4 0 -3.62 ( 32) 41.96 1 4 0 0.20 ( 14) --- NFC West CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 LA Rams 0 1 0 3 2 0 1.50 ( 8) 52.74 3 1 0 1.09 ( 7) 2 Seattle 1 1 0 3 2 0 0.96 ( 11) 52.52 2 1 0 -0.51 ( 18) 3 San Francisco 3 0 0 4 1 0 0.58 ( 15) 48.62 1 1 0 -2.04 ( 29) 4 Arizona 0 2 0 2 3 0 -0.66 ( 21) 48.04 2 1 0 -3.08 ( 32)
The average computer rating of all teams in a division is shown here.
Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 NFC North 1.50 2 NFC West 0.59 3 AFC South 0.27 4 AFC West 0.09 5 NFC East 0.08 6 AFC North 0.02 7 AFC East -0.66 8 NFC South -1.90
These predictions, where needed, already account for home advantage. Neutral site games (London, etc.) should be obvious, if I've programmed them correctly.
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 09-Oct-2025 Philadelphia NY Giants 37.8 AWAY by -5.78 12-Oct-2025 Denver NY Jets 38.2 Denv by -13.02 12-Oct-2025 LA Rams Baltimore 49.2 HOME by 6.11 12-Oct-2025 Dallas Carolina 52.0 AWAY by -3.55 12-Oct-2025 Arizona Indianapolis 40.7 HOME by 10.98 12-Oct-2025 Seattle Jacksonville 44.5 AWAY by -1.65 12-Oct-2025 LA Chargers Miami 46.3 AWAY by -2.35 12-Oct-2025 Cleveland Pittsburgh 34.5 HOME by 7.00 12-Oct-2025 San Francisco Tampa Bay 49.9 HOME by 7.10 12-Oct-2025 Tennessee Las Vegas 43.0 HOME by 1.15 12-Oct-2025 Cincinnati Green Bay 47.8 HOME by 8.21 12-Oct-2025 New England New Orleans 38.5 AWAY by -4.05 12-Oct-2025 Detroit Kansas City 47.9 AWAY by -4.90 13-Oct-2025 Buffalo Atlanta 51.8 AWAY by -5.86 13-Oct-2025 Chicago Washington 48.0 HOME by 0.23 16-Oct-2025 Pittsburgh Cincinnati 62.8 AWAY by -2.31 19-Oct-2025 Jacksonville LA Rams 41.6 LA R by 4.25 19-Oct-2025 New Orleans Chicago 36.8 HOME by 11.19 19-Oct-2025 Miami Cleveland 27.9 AWAY by -0.53 19-Oct-2025 Las Vegas Kansas City 44.2 HOME by 12.24 19-Oct-2025 Philadelphia Minnesota 44.6 AWAY by -1.41 19-Oct-2025 Carolina NY Jets 46.2 HOME by 6.58 19-Oct-2025 New England Tennessee 37.8 AWAY by -2.43 19-Oct-2025 NY Giants Denver 43.3 HOME by 13.49 19-Oct-2025 Indianapolis LA Chargers 50.9 AWAY by -1.01 19-Oct-2025 Green Bay Arizona 45.0 AWAY by -0.90 19-Oct-2025 Washington Dallas 56.8 HOME by 0.85 19-Oct-2025 Atlanta San Francisco 45.0 HOME by 6.19 20-Oct-2025 Tampa Bay Detroit 67.7 HOME by 8.54 20-Oct-2025 Houston Seattle 38.8 AWAY by -2.49 23-Oct-2025 Minnesota LA Chargers 43.7 HOME by 4.02
Original Text Files
Feel free to download these; if you use them elsewhere, give credit to talismanred.com.
- Rankings
- Division Standings (but sorted by computer rating)
- Game Predictions
What is this about?
Computer ratings are the starting point for Vegas oddsmakers, and have traditionally done reasonably well at predicting game winners. On this page, I share my own formula, which I've been producing for one sport or another for about 20 years. If you're familiar with ratings you've probably heard of the others: Sagarin, Massey, and more.
So it's just a math formula?
Yep, that's all that computer ratings are. You can do it this way, or you can do like they do for college sports and do a human "poll" (coaches, writers, whoever).
The formula here is one that I developed quite a few years ago to try and "compete" with all the other folks who are doing it. That's where the predictions come from -- incorporating historical games and trying to use those to figure out what will happen next. It includes scores, dates, and locations, but no other information. No information about injuries, pace or speed of the game, penalties, etc. Those things *do* matter, but they aren't factored in here.
Are the predictions any good?
Great question, and the answer depends on the sport:
- In the NFL in 2023-24, my system predicted 62.8% of game winners correct. By comparison, the ESPN FPI (yep, they run it for pro too) got 64.4%. That is a difference, over an entire season, of just four more games correct.
- In college football in 2023, 71.5% correct
- In college basketball in 2023-24, 70.4% correct
Although the system is comparable to other computer systems (FPI, Sagarin, and several others), the midweek/updated Vegas line predicted 66.3% of last year's NFL winners correctly. You just cannot beat a human touch!
Who are you, anyway?
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and am currently a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington. In addition to lots of teaching, I have research interests in the broad areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers).
Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.