National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Friday 06/11/21, 12:46 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Utah 58 21 3.36 57.92 2 2 Phoenix 57 23 3.30 56.95 1 3 LA Clippers 51 30 2.45 56.32 5 4 Philadelphia 54 25 2.24 55.00 4 5 Brooklyn 54 26 1.94 53.55 3 6 Milwaukee 51 28 1.88 54.45 7 7 Denver 50 30 1.60 52.57 6 8 Atlanta 46 33 1.35 52.50 8 9 Portland 45 33 1.22 52.57 9 10 LA Lakers 45 34 1.16 52.65 11 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Dallas 45 34 0.94 51.34 10 12 New York 42 35 0.79 51.70 12 13 Boston 37 39 0.51 52.25 16 14 Golden State 39 35 0.50 51.01 14 15 Memphis 41 38 0.42 50.95 15 16 Miami 40 36 0.41 50.33 13 17 Indiana 35 39 -0.31 49.55 17 18 Toronto 27 44 -0.33 51.20 24 19 San Antonio 33 40 -0.54 49.11 19 20 New Orleans 31 40 -0.58 49.47 20 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Chicago 31 41 -0.75 49.06 23 22 Washington 35 42 -0.80 47.42 18 23 Charlotte 32 40 -1.06 47.46 22 24 Sacramento 31 41 -1.27 46.48 21 25 Minnesota 23 49 -2.39 44.75 25 26 Detroit 19 52 -2.78 45.44 30 27 Houston 17 55 -3.21 43.40 29 28 Orlando 21 51 -3.22 42.05 27 29 Oklahoma City 22 50 -3.42 40.73 26 30 Cleveland 22 50 -3.42 41.81 28

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

When I get them working, divisional rankings will go here:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 1.23 2 Atlantic 1.03 3 Northwest 0.08 4 Southeast -0.59 5 Southeast -0.67 6 Central -1.08

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 11-Jun-2021 Philadelphia Atlanta 220 AWAY by -1.56 11-Jun-2021 Phoenix Denver 226 AWAY by -3.43


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats