Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 2-3 points for basketball.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Overtimes make this tricky, and are why overtime games are recorded as "ties" because these often cause point totals to skew too high. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which doesn't sound like much but is enough to make a difference over an entire season of games.

Ratings last updated Monday 04/22/24 08:17 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Boston                63 14  6     3.46    58.66    1
   2 Denver                58 24  1     2.63    55.81    3
   3 Minnesota             56 22  5     2.47    54.92    2
   4 Oklahoma City         55 24  4     2.30    55.17    4
   5 New York              51 31  2     1.43    53.71    9
   6 LA Clippers           52 30  1     1.42    52.39    5
   7 New Orleans           50 33  1     1.36    52.72    6
   8 Golden State          46 32  5     1.35    52.85    7
   9 Phoenix               46 34  3     1.20    52.33    8
  10 Philadelphia          47 34  3     1.13    53.51   15

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Milwaukee             48 30  4     1.01    52.77   13
  12 Cleveland             46 33  4     0.93    52.86   16
  13 Sacramento            42 36  6     0.78    52.21   17
  14 LA Lakers             44 35  5     0.71    51.20   11
  15 Dallas                49 34  1     0.67    50.35   10
  16 Miami                 45 38  2     0.59    51.65   19
  17 Orlando               45 35  3     0.39    50.52   18
  18 Indiana               46 36  1     0.33    49.68   12
  19 Houston               39 36  7    -0.05    48.23   14
  20 Chicago               33 40 11    -0.59    49.30   20

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Atlanta               32 46  6    -0.70    49.15   21
  22 Brooklyn              31 46  5    -1.03    48.03   22
  23 Utah                  29 49  4    -1.50    46.44   23
  24 Memphis               26 52  4    -1.50    47.21   24
  25 Toronto               24 54  4    -1.88    47.14   26
  26 San Antonio           19 58  5    -2.75    42.85   25
  27 Washington            15 65  2    -3.36    43.69   29
  28 Portland              16 58  8    -3.39    42.02   28
  29 Charlotte             20 60  2    -3.45    41.55   27
  30 Detroit               13 67  3    -3.97    41.09   30

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 Pacific                        1.09
   2 Atlantic                       0.62
   3 Northwest                      0.50
   4 Southeast                     -0.45
   5 Central                       -0.46
   6 Southeast                     -1.31

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
22-Apr-2024  Orlando               Cleveland              213   HOME by   4.54
22-Apr-2024  LA Lakers             Denver                 231   HOME by   6.81
22-Apr-2024  Philadelphia          New York               218   HOME by   2.40

23-Apr-2024  Phoenix               Minnesota              217   HOME by   4.79
23-Apr-2024  Indiana               Milwaukee              247   HOME by   5.29
23-Apr-2024  Dallas                LA Clippers            231   HOME by   4.25

24-Apr-2024  Miami                 Boston                 213   HOME by   9.21
24-Apr-2024  New Orleans           Oklahoma City          228   HOME by   4.65

25-Apr-2024  Cleveland             Orlando                212   AWAY by  -0.14
25-Apr-2024  Denver                LA Lakers              225   AWAY by  -2.41
25-Apr-2024  New York              Philadelphia           222   HOME by   2.00

Current home field advantage is:  2.20

MAE for games to date:  10.48

These ratings fit to produce 0.63 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.40:  0.73

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.94.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.94.