National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Wednesday 03/31/21, 02:33 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Utah 35 11 3.72 57.97 1 2 Phoenix 32 14 3.42 57.03 2 3 LA Clippers 32 17 2.88 56.52 3 4 Philadelphia 32 15 2.05 54.06 5 5 LA Lakers 30 17 1.81 53.51 7 6 Milwaukee 29 17 1.58 54.09 9 7 Denver 28 19 1.51 52.40 8 8 Brooklyn 32 15 1.40 51.34 4 9 Portland 29 17 1.17 50.71 6 10 Boston 22 23 0.88 53.18 14 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Dallas 24 21 0.58 50.62 10 12 Miami 23 24 0.45 50.85 11 13 Atlanta 23 24 0.32 51.36 17 14 Toronto 18 28 0.17 52.09 22 15 Memphis 22 22 0.05 50.44 18 16 Charlotte 23 22 -0.02 49.22 12 17 Golden State 23 24 -0.05 49.67 15 18 San Antonio 23 21 -0.05 49.30 13 19 New York 24 23 -0.07 49.68 16 20 New Orleans 21 24 -0.13 50.50 21 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Indiana 21 24 -0.14 50.17 19 22 Sacramento 22 25 -0.94 46.95 20 23 Chicago 19 26 -1.19 48.30 24 24 Oklahoma City 19 27 -1.99 44.27 23 25 Washington 16 28 -2.24 45.22 25 26 Orlando 16 31 -2.52 44.55 27 27 Detroit 12 33 -2.69 46.76 29 28 Houston 13 33 -2.90 44.52 28 29 Cleveland 17 30 -3.03 42.42 26 30 Minnesota 11 36 -4.03 42.31 30

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

When I get them working, divisional rankings will go here:

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 1.43 2 Atlantic 0.89 3 Northwest 0.07 4 Southeast -0.49 5 Southeast -0.80 6 Central -1.09

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 31-Mar-2021 Portland Detroit 217 AWAY by -3.11 31-Mar-2021 Miami Indiana 215 HOME by 0.14 31-Mar-2021 Dallas Boston 228 HOME by 3.39 31-Mar-2021 Houston Brooklyn 232 HOME by 7.65 31-Mar-2021 New York Minnesota 204 AWAY by -6.54 31-Mar-2021 Toronto Oklahoma City 220 AWAY by -6.99 31-Mar-2021 Utah Memphis 226 AWAY by -6.70 31-Mar-2021 Sacramento San Antonio 230 HOME by 3.18 31-Mar-2021 Milwaukee LA Lakers 228 HOME by 0.25 31-Mar-2021 Chicago Phoenix 231 HOME by 9.56 01-Apr-2021 Atlanta San Antonio 222 AWAY by -1.23 01-Apr-2021 Philadelphia Cleveland 218 AWAY by -10.81 01-Apr-2021 Washington Detroit 217 HOME by 2.38 01-Apr-2021 Charlotte Brooklyn 236 HOME by 2.95 01-Apr-2021 Orlando New Orleans 222 HOME by 6.78 01-Apr-2021 Golden State Miami 220 HOME by 2.01 01-Apr-2021 Denver LA Clippers 227 HOME by 4.95 02-Apr-2021 Golden State Toronto 222 HOME by 3.25 02-Apr-2021 Houston Boston 220 HOME by 9.49 02-Apr-2021 Dallas New York 221 AWAY by -0.11 02-Apr-2021 Charlotte Indiana 229 HOME by 1.77 02-Apr-2021 Minnesota Memphis 229 HOME by 8.95 02-Apr-2021 Atlanta New Orleans 234 AWAY by -0.03 02-Apr-2021 Chicago Utah 229 HOME by 10.50 02-Apr-2021 Oklahoma City Phoenix 216 HOME by 13.59 02-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Portland 243 AWAY by -2.55 02-Apr-2021 LA Lakers Sacramento 231 AWAY by -5.73 03-Apr-2021 Dallas Washington 244 AWAY by -4.57 03-Apr-2021 New York Detroit 195 AWAY by -2.09 03-Apr-2021 Cleveland Miami 202 HOME by 9.26 03-Apr-2021 Minnesota Philadelphia 233 HOME by 12.57 03-Apr-2021 Indiana San Antonio 223 AWAY by -0.04 03-Apr-2021 Orlando Utah 212 HOME by 14.25 03-Apr-2021 Oklahoma City Portland 225 HOME by 7.26 03-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Sacramento 248 AWAY by -6.30 04-Apr-2021 Brooklyn Chicago 239 AWAY by -2.21 04-Apr-2021 LA Lakers LA Clippers 218 HOME by 3.84 04-Apr-2021 Charlotte Boston 225 HOME by 4.79 04-Apr-2021 Memphis Philadelphia 228 HOME by 4.45 04-Apr-2021 Golden State Atlanta 226 HOME by 2.52 04-Apr-2021 New Orleans Houston 222 AWAY by -5.15 04-Apr-2021 Orlando Denver 211 HOME by 8.68 05-Apr-2021 Utah Dallas 229 AWAY by -6.52 05-Apr-2021 Sacramento Minnesota 231 AWAY by -3.81 05-Apr-2021 New York Brooklyn 214 HOME by 2.49 05-Apr-2021 Cleveland San Antonio 205 HOME by 7.71 05-Apr-2021 Detroit Oklahoma City 217 AWAY by -1.66 05-Apr-2021 Washington Toronto 223 HOME by 7.70 05-Apr-2021 Phoenix Houston 214 AWAY by -11.69 06-Apr-2021 Chicago Indiana 231 HOME by 2.70 06-Apr-2021 New Orleans Atlanta 225 HOME by 1.69 06-Apr-2021 Philadelphia Boston 219 AWAY by -0.04 06-Apr-2021 LA Lakers Toronto 213 AWAY by -0.59 06-Apr-2021 Memphis Miami 220 HOME by 1.24 06-Apr-2021 Detroit Denver 218 HOME by 6.46 06-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Golden State 237 AWAY by -3.58 06-Apr-2021 Portland LA Clippers 229 HOME by 6.65 07-Apr-2021 Minnesota Indiana 232 HOME by 8.68 07-Apr-2021 Washington Orlando 223 HOME by 0.16 07-Apr-2021 New York Boston 202 HOME by 4.33 07-Apr-2021 New Orleans Brooklyn 234 HOME by 1.67 07-Apr-2021 Memphis Atlanta 225 HOME by 1.75 07-Apr-2021 Dallas Houston 228 AWAY by -5.27 07-Apr-2021 Charlotte Oklahoma City 225 AWAY by -4.13 07-Apr-2021 San Antonio Denver 222 HOME by 3.93 07-Apr-2021 Utah Phoenix 228 AWAY by -0.10 08-Apr-2021 LA Lakers Miami 211 AWAY by -1.83 08-Apr-2021 Cleveland Oklahoma City 205 HOME by 2.68 08-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Dallas 235 AWAY by -2.64 08-Apr-2021 Phoenix LA Clippers 219 HOME by 0.32 08-Apr-2021 Detroit Sacramento 235 HOME by 1.02 08-Apr-2021 Portland Utah 227 HOME by 8.09 09-Apr-2021 Philadelphia New Orleans 232 AWAY by -2.73 09-Apr-2021 Indiana Orlando 221 AWAY by -4.79 09-Apr-2021 Chicago Atlanta 229 HOME by 3.89 09-Apr-2021 Minnesota Boston 227 HOME by 11.70 09-Apr-2021 Memphis New York 215 HOME by 0.07 09-Apr-2021 Toronto Cleveland 219 AWAY by -8.85 09-Apr-2021 San Antonio Denver 222 HOME by 3.93 09-Apr-2021 Charlotte Milwaukee 237 HOME by 5.69 09-Apr-2021 Washington Golden State 231 HOME by 5.28 09-Apr-2021 Houston LA Clippers 224 HOME by 12.83 10-Apr-2021 LA Lakers Brooklyn 225 AWAY by -1.34 10-Apr-2021 Philadelphia Oklahoma City 219 AWAY by -8.96 10-Apr-2021 Sacramento Utah 231 HOME by 11.84 10-Apr-2021 Houston Golden State 227 HOME by 5.98 10-Apr-2021 Washington Phoenix 228 HOME by 12.65 10-Apr-2021 Detroit Portland 230 HOME by 4.77 11-Apr-2021 Atlanta Charlotte 218 AWAY by -1.31 11-Apr-2021 Boston Denver 221 HOME by 0.05 11-Apr-2021 New Orleans Cleveland 221 AWAY by -7.26 11-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Orlando 229 AWAY by -8.71 11-Apr-2021 Toronto New York 213 AWAY by -1.58 11-Apr-2021 San Antonio Dallas 227 HOME by 2.15 11-Apr-2021 Chicago Minnesota 229 AWAY by -5.16 11-Apr-2021 Indiana Memphis 225 HOME by 1.10 11-Apr-2021 Detroit LA Clippers 221 HOME by 10.59 11-Apr-2021 Miami Portland 223 HOME by 0.68 12-Apr-2021 LA Lakers New York 206 AWAY by -3.00 12-Apr-2021 Brooklyn Minnesota 237 AWAY by -8.20 12-Apr-2021 San Antonio Orlando 220 AWAY by -3.92 12-Apr-2021 Philadelphia Dallas 224 AWAY by -2.61 12-Apr-2021 Sacramento New Orleans 241 HOME by 4.38 12-Apr-2021 Washington Utah 227 HOME by 13.58 12-Apr-2021 Chicago Memphis 229 HOME by 2.97 12-Apr-2021 Denver Golden State 229 AWAY by -1.90 12-Apr-2021 Houston Phoenix 224 HOME by 13.34 13-Apr-2021 LA Clippers Indiana 223 AWAY by -5.53 13-Apr-2021 Atlanta Toronto 221 HOME by 1.56 13-Apr-2021 LA Lakers Charlotte 211 AWAY by -3.46 13-Apr-2021 Oklahoma City Utah 215 HOME by 14.53 13-Apr-2021 Miami Phoenix 214 HOME by 7.01 13-Apr-2021 Boston Portland 233 AWAY by -1.65 14-Apr-2021 Brooklyn Philadelphia 241 HOME by 3.54 14-Apr-2021 Cleveland Charlotte 202 HOME by 7.64 14-Apr-2021 San Antonio Toronto 221 HOME by 3.62 14-Apr-2021 New York New Orleans 215 HOME by 1.65 14-Apr-2021 Orlando Chicago 214 HOME by 4.58 14-Apr-2021 LA Clippers Detroit 211 AWAY by -8.93 14-Apr-2021 Milwaukee Minnesota 232 AWAY by -10.94 14-Apr-2021 Indiana Houston 222 AWAY by -4.82 14-Apr-2021 Golden State Oklahoma City 223 AWAY by -4.57 14-Apr-2021 Dallas Memphis 231 HOME by 0.65 14-Apr-2021 Miami Denver 211 HOME by 2.38 14-Apr-2021 Washington Sacramento 241 HOME by 2.57


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats