2018-19 National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Wednesday 02/20/19, 03:47 PM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Milwaukee 43 14 3.79 59.31 1 2 Golden State 41 16 2.63 56.54 4 3 Toronto 43 16 2.29 54.08 2 4 Denver 39 18 2.27 54.15 3 5 Oklahoma City 36 21 1.82 54.12 5 6 Utah 32 25 1.79 54.35 8 7 Houston 33 24 1.57 53.34 7 8 Philadelphia 37 21 1.51 53.02 6 9 Indiana 38 20 1.48 53.40 9 10 Portland 34 23 1.38 53.12 10 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Boston 37 21 1.35 53.51 11 12 San Antonio 33 26 0.90 51.74 13 13 LA Clippers 32 27 0.88 51.61 12 14 LA Lakers 28 29 -0.21 49.14 16 15 Minnesota 27 30 -0.29 49.53 17 16 Dallas 26 31 -0.29 50.15 19 17 Sacramento 30 27 -0.30 48.10 14 18 Brooklyn 31 28 -0.32 48.51 15 19 Charlotte 27 30 -0.41 49.19 18 20 New Orleans 26 33 -0.51 50.04 24 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Orlando 27 32 -0.61 48.86 21 22 Miami 26 30 -0.62 48.79 20 23 Detroit 26 30 -0.76 48.33 22 24 Washington 24 34 -1.04 47.57 23 25 Memphis 23 36 -1.43 47.12 25 26 Atlanta 19 39 -2.76 42.97 26 27 Cleveland 12 46 -2.79 43.38 27 28 Chicago 14 44 -3.40 42.70 28 29 New York 11 47 -3.81 42.41 30 30 Phoenix 11 48 -4.09 40.94 29
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 21-Feb-2019 Phoenix Cleveland 218 HOME by 5.44 21-Feb-2019 Miami Philadelphia 219 HOME by 7.23 21-Feb-2019 Portland Brooklyn 229 AWAY by -1.61 21-Feb-2019 Boston Milwaukee 219 HOME by 8.79 21-Feb-2019 Sacramento Golden State 236 HOME by 11.44 21-Feb-2019 Houston LA Lakers 220 AWAY by -1.20 22-Feb-2019 New Orleans Indiana 215 HOME by 6.36 22-Feb-2019 Chicago Orlando 207 HOME by 9.15 22-Feb-2019 San Antonio Toronto 228 HOME by 5.34 22-Feb-2019 Washington Charlotte 230 HOME by 4.62 22-Feb-2019 Detroit Atlanta 222 AWAY by -2.37 22-Feb-2019 Minnesota New York 221 AWAY by -4.12 22-Feb-2019 LA Clippers Memphis 208 AWAY by -1.49 22-Feb-2019 Denver Dallas 213 AWAY by -1.00 22-Feb-2019 Utah Oklahoma City 216 HOME by 2.77 23-Feb-2019 Portland Philadelphia 230 HOME by 2.90 23-Feb-2019 Phoenix Atlanta 234 HOME by 5.03 23-Feb-2019 LA Lakers New Orleans 241 HOME by 3.90 23-Feb-2019 Memphis Cleveland 200 AWAY by -0.75 23-Feb-2019 Indiana Washington 225 AWAY by -2.83 23-Feb-2019 Brooklyn Charlotte 225 HOME by 3.68 23-Feb-2019 Detroit Miami 202 HOME by 3.45 23-Feb-2019 Boston Chicago 209 AWAY by -7.81 23-Feb-2019 Sacramento Oklahoma City 233 HOME by 9.02 23-Feb-2019 Houston Golden State 223 HOME by 6.20 23-Feb-2019 Minnesota Milwaukee 231 HOME by 12.78 23-Feb-2019 Dallas Utah 211 HOME by 7.19 24-Feb-2019 Orlando Toronto 210 HOME by 8.22 24-Feb-2019 LA Clippers Denver 224 HOME by 5.54 24-Feb-2019 San Antonio New York 221 AWAY by -6.33 25-Feb-2019 Portland Cleveland 218 AWAY by -6.74 25-Feb-2019 Indiana Detroit 210 AWAY by -2.06 25-Feb-2019 Golden State Charlotte 225 AWAY by -4.35 25-Feb-2019 Phoenix Miami 214 HOME by 10.85 25-Feb-2019 San Antonio Brooklyn 230 AWAY by -0.22 25-Feb-2019 Philadelphia New Orleans 240 HOME by 0.02 25-Feb-2019 Milwaukee Chicago 217 AWAY by -13.61 25-Feb-2019 Atlanta Houston 235 HOME by 13.37 25-Feb-2019 Sacramento Minnesota 234 HOME by 4.43 25-Feb-2019 LA Lakers Memphis 212 HOME by 0.99 25-Feb-2019 Dallas LA Clippers 226 HOME by 4.45 26-Feb-2019 Orlando New York 203 AWAY by -3.45 26-Feb-2019 Boston Toronto 216 HOME by 3.56 26-Feb-2019 Oklahoma City Denver 220 HOME by 3.03 27-Feb-2019 Houston Charlotte 221 AWAY by -1.15 27-Feb-2019 Minnesota Atlanta 235 AWAY by -3.56 27-Feb-2019 Portland Boston 219 HOME by 3.39 27-Feb-2019 Golden State Miami 214 AWAY by -4.75 27-Feb-2019 Washington Brooklyn 234 HOME by 3.94 27-Feb-2019 Detroit San Antonio 210 HOME by 6.40 27-Feb-2019 Chicago Memphis 196 HOME by 7.42 27-Feb-2019 Indiana Dallas 211 AWAY by -0.24 27-Feb-2019 LA Clippers Utah 218 HOME by 5.74 27-Feb-2019 Milwaukee Sacramento 227 AWAY by -8.21 27-Feb-2019 New Orleans LA Lakers 232 HOME by 2.10 28-Feb-2019 Minnesota Indiana 210 HOME by 6.87 28-Feb-2019 Golden State Orlando 218 AWAY by -4.68 28-Feb-2019 Cleveland New York 211 HOME by 2.03 28-Feb-2019 Miami Houston 218 HOME by 7.55 28-Feb-2019 Utah Denver 213 HOME by 2.80 28-Feb-2019 Philadelphia Oklahoma City 230 HOME by 4.09 01-Mar-2019 Chicago Atlanta 222 HOME by 3.27 01-Mar-2019 Charlotte Brooklyn 230 HOME by 2.32 01-Mar-2019 Portland Toronto 226 HOME by 3.96 01-Mar-2019 Washington Boston 224 HOME by 8.94 01-Mar-2019 New Orleans Phoenix 227 AWAY by -6.10 01-Mar-2019 LA Clippers Sacramento 230 AWAY by -0.51 01-Mar-2019 Milwaukee LA Lakers 224 AWAY by -7.17 02-Mar-2019 Detroit Cleveland 206 AWAY by -1.96 02-Mar-2019 Orlando Indiana 192 HOME by 7.54 02-Mar-2019 Brooklyn Miami 213 HOME by 3.27 02-Mar-2019 Memphis Dallas 201 HOME by 6.03 02-Mar-2019 Golden State Philadelphia 230 AWAY by -0.52 02-Mar-2019 Oklahoma City San Antonio 220 HOME by 0.62 02-Mar-2019 New Orleans Denver 229 HOME by 7.11 02-Mar-2019 LA Lakers Phoenix 225 AWAY by -5.20 02-Mar-2019 Milwaukee Utah 216 AWAY by -1.96 03-Mar-2019 Portland Charlotte 225 AWAY by -0.93 03-Mar-2019 Houston Boston 215 HOME by 3.18 03-Mar-2019 Atlanta Chicago 225 HOME by 2.73 03-Mar-2019 New York LA Clippers 228 HOME by 12.20 03-Mar-2019 Orlando Cleveland 202 AWAY by -2.48 03-Mar-2019 Toronto Detroit 215 AWAY by -2.75 03-Mar-2019 Minnesota Washington 235 HOME by 1.04 03-Mar-2019 Memphis Oklahoma City 207 HOME by 9.99 04-Mar-2019 Atlanta Miami 220 HOME by 8.82 04-Mar-2019 Dallas Brooklyn 223 HOME by 1.36 04-Mar-2019 Denver San Antonio 215 HOME by 0.59 04-Mar-2019 Milwaukee Phoenix 219 AWAY by -15.37 04-Mar-2019 New Orleans Utah 224 HOME by 7.31 04-Mar-2019 New York Sacramento 226 HOME by 8.68 04-Mar-2019 LA Clippers LA Lakers 226 HOME by 0.53 05-Mar-2019 Chicago Indiana 198 HOME by 13.69 05-Mar-2019 Orlando Philadelphia 214 HOME by 7.16 05-Mar-2019 Oklahoma City Minnesota 224 AWAY by -1.59 05-Mar-2019 Houston Toronto 221 HOME by 3.74 05-Mar-2019 Portland Memphis 206 AWAY by -3.00 05-Mar-2019 Boston Golden State 218 HOME by 6.02 06-Mar-2019 Minnesota Detroit 220 HOME by 1.81 06-Mar-2019 Dallas Washington 228 HOME by 0.42 06-Mar-2019 Miami Charlotte 214 HOME by 3.40 06-Mar-2019 San Antonio Atlanta 235 AWAY by -5.77 06-Mar-2019 Cleveland Brooklyn 220 HOME by 8.14 06-Mar-2019 Utah New Orleans 226 AWAY by -1.31 06-Mar-2019 Philadelphia Chicago 223 AWAY by -7.32 06-Mar-2019 New York Phoenix 217 HOME by 1.52 06-Mar-2019 Boston Sacramento 219 AWAY by -2.42 06-Mar-2019 Denver LA Lakers 218 AWAY by -2.01

Current home field advantage is: 3.00 MAE for games to date: 10.17 These ratings fit to produce 0.68 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 6.00: 0.79 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.17. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 7.59.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats