2018-19 National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Wednesday 12/12/18, 09:27 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Toronto 22 7 2.62 55.50 1 2 Denver 18 9 2.47 54.85 2 3 Philadelphia 19 9 2.09 54.51 3 4 Milwaukee 18 8 2.00 54.65 5 5 Utah 13 15 1.84 55.21 10 6 Houston 12 14 1.83 54.43 7 7 Golden State 19 9 1.81 54.48 8 8 Oklahoma City 16 9 1.72 53.77 6 9 Indiana 17 10 1.53 53.37 9 10 Boston 16 10 1.46 53.93 12 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 LA Clippers 17 10 1.39 51.83 4 12 Portland 15 12 1.22 53.33 13 13 LA Lakers 17 10 0.90 51.27 11 14 Charlotte 13 13 0.53 52.17 15 15 New Orleans 14 15 0.41 52.08 17 16 San Antonio 14 14 0.18 50.33 14 17 Minnesota 13 14 -0.11 49.69 16 18 Detroit 13 12 -0.44 48.90 18 19 Dallas 14 11 -0.46 48.82 19 20 Miami 11 15 -0.65 49.51 23 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 Sacramento 14 12 -0.90 46.86 20 22 Washington 11 16 -0.93 47.70 22 23 Cleveland 6 21 -0.94 48.47 24 24 Brooklyn 11 17 -1.19 47.89 25 25 Memphis 15 11 -1.36 44.85 21 26 Orlando 12 15 -1.80 45.56 26 27 New York 8 20 -2.92 43.87 27 28 Atlanta 6 20 -3.52 41.85 28 29 Chicago 6 22 -4.02 40.48 29 30 Phoenix 4 24 -4.74 39.82 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 12-Dec-2018 New York Cleveland 219 HOME by 7.35 12-Dec-2018 Milwaukee Indiana 211 HOME by 1.47 12-Dec-2018 Brooklyn Philadelphia 223 HOME by 9.37 12-Dec-2018 Boston Washington 207 AWAY by -3.48 12-Dec-2018 Detroit Charlotte 224 HOME by 6.02 12-Dec-2018 Oklahoma City New Orleans 226 HOME by 1.07 12-Dec-2018 Portland Memphis 209 AWAY by -5.73 12-Dec-2018 Atlanta Dallas 219 HOME by 9.73 12-Dec-2018 Miami Utah 209 HOME by 8.45 12-Dec-2018 Minnesota Sacramento 216 AWAY by -0.08 12-Dec-2018 Toronto Golden State 221 HOME by 1.74 13-Dec-2018 LA Lakers Houston 224 HOME by 5.91 13-Dec-2018 LA Clippers San Antonio 221 HOME by 1.26 13-Dec-2018 Orlando Chicago 201 Orla by -5.08 13-Dec-2018 Dallas Phoenix 211 AWAY by -6.25 14-Dec-2018 Atlanta Boston 210 HOME by 14.84 14-Dec-2018 New York Charlotte 232 HOME by 11.05 14-Dec-2018 Milwaukee Cleveland 223 AWAY by -3.43 14-Dec-2018 Washington Brooklyn 224 HOME by 2.94 14-Dec-2018 Indiana Philadelphia 210 HOME by 3.89 14-Dec-2018 Miami Memphis 210 AWAY by -1.91 14-Dec-2018 Oklahoma City Denver 215 HOME by 3.83 14-Dec-2018 Toronto Portland 217 HOME by 0.58 14-Dec-2018 Golden State Sacramento 216 AWAY by -4.86 15-Dec-2018 Orlando Utah 193 Utah by 9.65 15-Dec-2018 Boston Detroit 204 AWAY by -2.27 15-Dec-2018 LA Lakers Charlotte 238 HOME by 3.66 15-Dec-2018 Houston Memphis 204 AWAY by -6.82 15-Dec-2018 Chicago San Antonio 202 HOME by 12.60 15-Dec-2018 Minnesota Phoenix 217 AWAY by -7.12 15-Dec-2018 LA Clippers Oklahoma City 229 HOME by 4.70 16-Dec-2018 Atlanta Brooklyn 220 HOME by 8.80 16-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Cleveland 220 AWAY by -3.29 16-Dec-2018 New York Indiana 207 HOME by 12.25 16-Dec-2018 LA Lakers Washington 228 AWAY by -0.81 16-Dec-2018 Miami New Orleans 230 HOME by 5.32 16-Dec-2018 Sacramento Dallas 223 HOME by 4.71 16-Dec-2018 Toronto Denver 221 HOME by 2.10 17-Dec-2018 Milwaukee Detroit 223 AWAY by -2.99 17-Dec-2018 Phoenix New York 221 HOME by 6.81 17-Dec-2018 Utah Houston 209 HOME by 1.97 17-Dec-2018 Sacramento Minnesota 226 HOME by 5.58 17-Dec-2018 Chicago Oklahoma City 210 HOME by 16.04 17-Dec-2018 Philadelphia San Antonio 215 AWAY by -1.43 17-Dec-2018 Memphis Golden State 211 HOME by 12.39 17-Dec-2018 Portland LA Clippers 222 HOME by 1.25 18-Dec-2018 Cleveland Indiana 201 HOME by 7.65 18-Dec-2018 Washington Atlanta 230 AWAY by -3.10 18-Dec-2018 LA Lakers Brooklyn 230 AWAY by -0.62 18-Dec-2018 Dallas Denver 215 HOME by 8.78 19-Dec-2018 San Antonio Orlando 213 AWAY by -2.01 19-Dec-2018 New York Philadelphia 227 HOME by 13.39 19-Dec-2018 Cleveland Charlotte 226 HOME by 6.46 19-Dec-2018 Phoenix Boston 210 HOME by 16.87 19-Dec-2018 Indiana Toronto 210 HOME by 4.89 19-Dec-2018 Brooklyn Chicago 218 AWAY by -4.65 19-Dec-2018 Washington Houston 218 HOME by 9.48 19-Dec-2018 New Orleans Milwaukee 233 HOME by 5.32 19-Dec-2018 Detroit Minnesota 218 HOME by 3.54 19-Dec-2018 Golden State Utah 210 HOME by 3.48 19-Dec-2018 Memphis Portland 208 HOME by 11.24 19-Dec-2018 Oklahoma City Sacramento 210 AWAY by -4.15 20-Dec-2018 Houston Miami 210 AWAY by -2.16 20-Dec-2018 Dallas LA Clippers 218 HOME by 5.76 21-Dec-2018 Cleveland Toronto 220 HOME by 9.79 21-Dec-2018 Detroit Charlotte 224 HOME by 6.02 21-Dec-2018 Indiana Brooklyn 208 AWAY by -2.72 21-Dec-2018 Atlanta New York 222 HOME by 4.78 21-Dec-2018 Milwaukee Boston 218 HOME by 2.04 21-Dec-2018 Orlando Chicago 201 AWAY by -2.32 21-Dec-2018 Minnesota San Antonio 212 HOME by 3.39 21-Dec-2018 Utah Portland 209 HOME by 0.87 21-Dec-2018 Memphis Sacramento 207 HOME by 4.77 21-Dec-2018 New Orleans LA Lakers 228 HOME by 1.94 22-Dec-2018 Denver LA Clippers 225 AWAY by -0.27 22-Dec-2018 Phoenix Washington 218 HOME by 10.64 22-Dec-2018 Toronto Philadelphia 225 HOME by 1.76 22-Dec-2018 San Antonio Houston 217 HOME by 6.85 22-Dec-2018 Milwaukee Miami 224 AWAY by -2.38 22-Dec-2018 Dallas Golden State 214 HOME by 8.42 22-Dec-2018 Oklahoma City Utah 204 HOME by 4.20 23-Dec-2018 Atlanta Detroit 215 HOME by 9.81 23-Dec-2018 Washington Indiana 207 HOME by 8.42 23-Dec-2018 Charlotte Boston 214 HOME by 4.51 23-Dec-2018 Chicago Cleveland 207 HOME by 10.74 23-Dec-2018 Phoenix Brooklyn 220 HOME by 10.83 23-Dec-2018 Miami Orlando 210 AWAY by -1.20 23-Dec-2018 New Orleans Sacramento 223 AWAY by -2.46 23-Dec-2018 Minnesota Oklahoma City 220 HOME by 6.83 23-Dec-2018 LA Clippers Golden State 229 HOME by 5.41 23-Dec-2018 Dallas Portland 211 HOME by 7.27 23-Dec-2018 Memphis LA Lakers 213 HOME by 9.17 25-Dec-2018 Milwaukee New York 229 AWAY by -8.02 25-Dec-2018 Oklahoma City Houston 210 HOME by 3.41 25-Dec-2018 Philadelphia Boston 215 HOME by 2.18 25-Dec-2018 LA Lakers Golden State 228 HOME by 5.97 25-Dec-2018 Portland Utah 208 HOME by 4.64 26-Dec-2018 Washington Detroit 219 HOME by 3.96 26-Dec-2018 Phoenix Orlando 210 HOME by 8.50 26-Dec-2018 Indiana Atlanta 213 AWAY by -8.77 26-Dec-2018 Toronto Miami 218 AWAY by -3.23 26-Dec-2018 Charlotte Brooklyn 224 AWAY by -1.53 26-Dec-2018 Minnesota Chicago 219 AWAY by -6.45 26-Dec-2018 Cleveland Memphis 208 AWAY by -0.87 26-Dec-2018 New Orleans Dallas 227 AWAY by -0.51 26-Dec-2018 Denver San Antonio 212 AWAY by -1.77 26-Dec-2018 Sacramento LA Clippers 227 HOME by 7.72

Current home field advantage is: 2.75 MAE for games to date: 10.12 These ratings fit to produce 0.67 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 5.51: 0.79 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.64. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 6.97.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats