National Basketball Association Computer Ratings
Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.

Again this year: Overtime games get recorded as "ties" because overtimes will cause point total predictions to skew high. Hopefully, this will make the predictions more accurate. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which is probably enough to make a small difference. 

Ratings last updated Friday 12/08/23, 08:18 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Boston                15  3  2     3.51    57.36    1
   2 Denver                14  8  0     2.69    55.51    3
   3 Philadelphia          13  6  1     2.60    55.43    5
   4 Minnesota             15  4  1     2.25    53.29    2
   5 Milwaukee             15  5  1     2.19    53.58    4
   6 New York              12  8  0     1.39    53.19    7
   7 Oklahoma City         12  7  1     1.13    53.36   11
   8 Miami                 12  9  0     1.12    52.02    6
   9 Phoenix               10  9  2     0.94    51.84    9
  10 Golden State          10 10  1     0.87    52.47   12

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Cleveland             11  9  1     0.78    52.82   15
  12 LA Lakers             12  8  2     0.73    51.26   10
  13 Orlando               14  7  0     0.65    50.32    8
  14 Sacramento             9  8  2     0.42    51.21   14
  15 Toronto                8 11  2     0.37    51.54   17
  16 LA Clippers           10  9  1     0.30    51.13   16
  17 Atlanta                8 11  1     0.25    51.18   18
  18 Brooklyn              11  8  1     0.22    50.27   13
  19 New Orleans           12 10  0    -0.15    49.67   20
  20 Memphis                6 13  1    -0.42    50.12   23

Rank Team                   W  L  T   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Dallas                12  8  0    -0.47    48.83   21
  22 Indiana               11  8  0    -0.71    47.26   19
  23 Chicago                6 13  3    -0.94    49.80   25
  24 Houston                9  8  1    -1.27    45.58   22
  25 Utah                   6 13  2    -1.71    45.97   24
  26 Washington             3 17  0    -2.21    46.85   28
  27 Charlotte              5 13  1    -2.82    43.37   26
  28 Portland               5 12  3    -3.02    43.40   27
  29 San Antonio            2 16  2    -4.04    40.39   29
  30 Detroit                2 19  0    -4.67    40.99   30

(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

Divisional rankings: 

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 Atlantic                       1.62
   2 Pacific                        0.65
   3 Northwest                      0.27
   4 Southeast                     -0.60
   5 Central                       -0.67
   6 Southeast                     -1.27




                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
08-Dec-2023  Atlanta               Philadelphia           235   HOME by   6.70
08-Dec-2023  Washington            Brooklyn               228   HOME by   5.88
08-Dec-2023  Toronto               Charlotte              224   AWAY by  -5.72
08-Dec-2023  Chicago               San Antonio            223   AWAY by  -6.96
08-Dec-2023  Cleveland             Miami                  214   HOME by   1.64
08-Dec-2023  Dallas                Portland               231   AWAY by  -2.98
08-Dec-2023  Houston               Denver                 227   HOME by  12.38
08-Dec-2023  Detroit               Orlando                227   HOME by  11.77
08-Dec-2023  Golden State          Oklahoma City          245   HOME by   3.33
08-Dec-2023  LA Clippers           Utah                   231   AWAY by  -2.71
08-Dec-2023  Minnesota             Memphis                226   AWAY by  -0.72
08-Dec-2023  New York              Boston                 218   HOME by   6.62
08-Dec-2023  Sacramento            Phoenix                231   HOME by   3.08

11-Dec-2023  Denver                Atlanta                239   AWAY by  -1.89
11-Dec-2023  Brooklyn              Sacramento             238   HOME by   3.39
11-Dec-2023  Miami                 Charlotte              218   AWAY by  -6.20
11-Dec-2023  Chicago               Milwaukee              227   HOME by   6.23
11-Dec-2023  Cleveland             Orlando                220   AWAY by  -0.06
11-Dec-2023  Dallas                Memphis                224   HOME by   3.74
11-Dec-2023  Indiana               Detroit                243   AWAY by  -3.82
11-Dec-2023  San Antonio           Houston                228   HOME by   7.63
11-Dec-2023  Portland              LA Clippers            225   HOME by  10.18
11-Dec-2023  Minnesota             New Orleans            226   AWAY by  -1.18
11-Dec-2023  Toronto               New York               218   HOME by   4.10
11-Dec-2023  Utah                  Oklahoma City          245   HOME by   9.83
11-Dec-2023  Washington            Philadelphia           231   HOME by  11.03

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats