2017-18 National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Monday 04/02/18, 08:31 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Houston 62 15 4.03 58.57 1 2 Toronto 55 21 3.11 57.34 2 3 Golden State 56 21 2.85 56.51 3 4 Boston 53 23 2.25 54.23 4 5 Portland 49 28 1.72 53.20 5 6 Philadelphia 46 30 1.60 53.44 6 7 Utah 44 33 1.60 53.83 8 8 Oklahoma City 45 33 1.31 53.15 9 9 San Antonio 45 32 1.28 53.42 11 10 Indiana 46 31 1.08 51.59 7 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Minnesota 43 35 0.80 51.80 12 12 Denver 42 35 0.68 51.41 14 13 Cleveland 47 30 0.46 49.86 10 14 Washington 42 35 0.46 50.86 16 15 LA Clippers 41 36 0.42 50.69 15 16 New Orleans 43 34 0.33 49.85 13 17 Miami 41 36 0.04 49.73 18 18 Milwaukee 41 36 -0.04 49.28 17 19 Detroit 37 40 -0.34 49.46 19 20 Charlotte 34 44 -0.53 49.53 21 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 LA Lakers 34 42 -0.76 48.35 20 22 Dallas 23 54 -1.68 47.98 26 23 Brooklyn 25 52 -1.91 46.64 23 24 New York 27 50 -2.11 46.01 25 25 Chicago 26 51 -2.45 43.57 22 26 Orlando 22 54 -2.48 45.46 28 27 Memphis 21 56 -2.53 45.32 29 28 Atlanta 22 55 -2.59 44.86 27 29 Sacramento 25 53 -2.76 43.06 24 30 Phoenix 18 60 -3.84 41.01 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 03-Apr-2018 Toronto Cleveland 226 AWAY by -5.41 03-Apr-2018 Brooklyn Philadelphia 220 HOME by 8.88 03-Apr-2018 Atlanta Miami 205 HOME by 6.94 03-Apr-2018 Orlando New York 214 HOME by 2.63 03-Apr-2018 Charlotte Chicago 212 AWAY by -3.88 03-Apr-2018 Washington Houston 219 HOME by 9.78 03-Apr-2018 Boston Milwaukee 203 AWAY by -2.87 03-Apr-2018 Golden State Oklahoma City 222 AWAY by -1.29 03-Apr-2018 Portland Dallas 202 AWAY by -3.15 03-Apr-2018 Indiana Denver 215 HOME by 1.90 03-Apr-2018 LA Lakers Utah 208 HOME by 7.56 03-Apr-2018 Sacramento Phoenix 209 HOME by 0.03 03-Apr-2018 San Antonio LA Clippers 206 AWAY by -0.66 04-Apr-2018 Philadelphia Detroit 211 AWAY by -1.91 04-Apr-2018 Dallas Orlando 205 AWAY by -0.45 04-Apr-2018 Boston Toronto 207 HOME by 5.18 04-Apr-2018 Miami Atlanta 205 AWAY by -2.79 04-Apr-2018 Memphis New Orleans 217 HOME by 6.60 04-Apr-2018 San Antonio LA Lakers 200 AWAY by -3.00 05-Apr-2018 Golden State Indiana 223 AWAY by -2.85 05-Apr-2018 Washington Cleveland 221 HOME by 1.07 05-Apr-2018 Portland Houston 216 HOME by 7.45 05-Apr-2018 Brooklyn Milwaukee 218 HOME by 4.72 05-Apr-2018 LA Clippers Utah 205 HOME by 5.21 05-Apr-2018 Minnesota Denver 223 HOME by 1.69 06-Apr-2018 Dallas Detroit 202 HOME by 3.55 06-Apr-2018 Charlotte Orlando 212 AWAY by -2.00 06-Apr-2018 Cleveland Philadelphia 220 HOME by 5.66 06-Apr-2018 Atlanta Washington 211 HOME by 8.08 06-Apr-2018 Chicago Boston 205 HOME by 12.74 06-Apr-2018 Miami New York 205 AWAY by -1.64 06-Apr-2018 Indiana Toronto 212 HOME by 7.82 06-Apr-2018 Sacramento Memphis 193 HOME by 4.34 06-Apr-2018 New Orleans Phoenix 225 AWAY by -6.77 06-Apr-2018 Minnesota LA Lakers 217 AWAY by -1.38 07-Apr-2018 Denver LA Clippers 226 HOME by 1.36 07-Apr-2018 Milwaukee New York 214 AWAY by -1.20 07-Apr-2018 Brooklyn Chicago 217 AWAY by -0.99 07-Apr-2018 New Orleans Golden State 225 HOME by 8.74 07-Apr-2018 Oklahoma City Houston 220 HOME by 7.49 07-Apr-2018 Portland San Antonio 199 HOME by 2.30 08-Apr-2018 Dallas Philadelphia 208 HOME by 7.54 08-Apr-2018 Indiana Charlotte 213 HOME by 0.01 08-Apr-2018 Detroit Memphis 195 AWAY by -2.06 08-Apr-2018 Utah LA Lakers 206 AWAY by -3.41 08-Apr-2018 Orlando Toronto 217 HOME by 13.96 08-Apr-2018 Atlanta Boston 202 HOME by 11.44 08-Apr-2018 Golden State Phoenix 230 AWAY by -13.43 09-Apr-2018 Toronto Detroit 213 AWAY by -5.81 09-Apr-2018 Oklahoma City Miami 207 AWAY by -1.35 09-Apr-2018 Chicago Brooklyn 217 HOME by 5.14 09-Apr-2018 Cleveland New York 219 AWAY by -1.77 09-Apr-2018 Orlando Milwaukee 213 HOME by 5.90 09-Apr-2018 Memphis Minnesota 209 HOME by 8.55 09-Apr-2018 Sacramento San Antonio 194 HOME by 12.44 09-Apr-2018 Portland Denver 215 HOME by 0.29 09-Apr-2018 New Orleans LA Clippers 225 HOME by 2.92 10-Apr-2018 Charlotte Indiana 212 HOME by 4.14 10-Apr-2018 Philadelphia Atlanta 216 AWAY by -6.51 10-Apr-2018 Boston Washington 204 AWAY by -1.29 10-Apr-2018 Phoenix Dallas 212 HOME by 9.04 10-Apr-2018 Golden State Utah 212 AWAY by -0.61 10-Apr-2018 Houston LA Lakers 214 AWAY by -8.14 11-Apr-2018 Brooklyn Boston 210 HOME by 9.67 11-Apr-2018 San Antonio New Orleans 213 AWAY by -1.50 11-Apr-2018 Detroit Chicago 204 AWAY by -3.81 11-Apr-2018 New York Cleveland 221 HOME by 5.92 11-Apr-2018 Toronto Miami 212 AWAY by -5.53 11-Apr-2018 Denver Minnesota 226 HOME by 2.46 11-Apr-2018 Washington Orlando 210 AWAY by -3.33 11-Apr-2018 Milwaukee Philadelphia 215 HOME by 6.23 11-Apr-2018 Memphis Oklahoma City 201 HOME by 9.90 11-Apr-2018 LA Lakers LA Clippers 226 HOME by 4.42 11-Apr-2018 Utah Portland 203 HOME by 1.44 11-Apr-2018 Houston Sacramento 207 AWAY by -13.44

Current home field advantage is: 2.07 MAE for games to date: 9.48 These ratings fit to produce 0.68 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.15: 0.77 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.58. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 6.50.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats