2017-18 National Basketball Association Computer Ratings


Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 2.5 points for basketball. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.


Ratings last updated Thursday 02/22/18, 08:35 AM ET Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 1 Houston 44 13 3.89 58.05 1 2 Golden State 44 14 3.80 57.99 2 3 Toronto 41 16 3.52 57.97 3 4 Boston 40 19 2.11 53.58 4 5 Oklahoma City 33 26 1.33 53.43 12 6 San Antonio 35 24 1.23 52.96 10 7 Minnesota 35 26 1.17 52.42 6 8 Utah 30 28 1.10 52.53 13 9 Philadelphia 30 25 1.07 52.30 9 10 Portland 33 25 1.02 51.72 5 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 11 Washington 33 24 0.90 51.53 8 12 Indiana 33 25 0.77 50.98 7 13 Denver 32 26 0.74 51.23 14 14 Cleveland 34 22 0.34 49.34 11 15 LA Clippers 30 26 0.33 50.44 17 16 New Orleans 31 26 0.17 49.64 16 17 Milwaukee 32 25 0.05 49.02 15 18 Miami 30 28 -0.26 48.68 18 19 Detroit 28 29 -0.40 49.44 19 20 Charlotte 24 33 -0.62 49.52 20 Rank Team W L Rating Points BCS 21 LA Lakers 24 33 -1.25 47.26 21 22 Dallas 18 40 -1.58 48.46 25 23 Memphis 18 38 -1.72 47.78 24 24 New York 23 36 -1.85 46.84 23 25 Brooklyn 19 40 -2.13 46.55 27 26 Orlando 18 39 -2.21 46.28 28 27 Chicago 20 37 -2.27 44.24 22 28 Atlanta 18 41 -2.45 45.94 29 29 Sacramento 18 39 -3.09 42.53 26 30 Phoenix 17 42 -3.70 41.36 30
(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.)

 

PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 22-Feb-2018 New York Orlando 210 HOME by 1.39 22-Feb-2018 Brooklyn Charlotte 218 HOME by 4.92 22-Feb-2018 Philadelphia Chicago 212 AWAY by -6.11 22-Feb-2018 Washington Cleveland 222 AWAY by -0.24 22-Feb-2018 Oklahoma City Sacramento 202 AWAY by -8.95 22-Feb-2018 LA Clippers Golden State 223 HOME by 9.50 23-Feb-2018 Boston Detroit 199 AWAY by -2.19 23-Feb-2018 Atlanta Indiana 211 HOME by 7.00 23-Feb-2018 Charlotte Washington 216 HOME by 3.96 23-Feb-2018 Milwaukee Toronto 212 HOME by 10.90 23-Feb-2018 Miami New Orleans 216 HOME by 2.91 23-Feb-2018 Minnesota Houston 227 HOME by 7.58 23-Feb-2018 Cleveland Memphis 208 HOME by 0.40 23-Feb-2018 San Antonio Denver 200 HOME by 0.21 23-Feb-2018 LA Clippers Phoenix 220 AWAY by -7.12 23-Feb-2018 Portland Utah 199 HOME by 2.76 23-Feb-2018 Dallas LA Lakers 207 HOME by 0.75 24-Feb-2018 Orlando Philadelphia 217 HOME by 7.97 24-Feb-2018 Memphis Miami 191 HOME by 2.84 24-Feb-2018 Boston New York 201 AWAY by -4.79 24-Feb-2018 Oklahoma City Golden State 219 HOME by 6.51 24-Feb-2018 Chicago Minnesota 219 HOME by 10.13 24-Feb-2018 Portland Phoenix 214 AWAY by -8.41 24-Feb-2018 Dallas Utah 197 HOME by 6.01 24-Feb-2018 LA Lakers Sacramento 210 AWAY by -2.78 25-Feb-2018 Detroit Charlotte 207 HOME by 2.03 25-Feb-2018 New Orleans Milwaukee 216 HOME by 1.34 25-Feb-2018 San Antonio Cleveland 208 AWAY by -1.68 25-Feb-2018 Houston Denver 217 AWAY by -4.88 25-Feb-2018 Philadelphia Washington 219 HOME by 1.18 26-Feb-2018 LA Lakers Atlanta 218 HOME by 0.63 26-Feb-2018 Memphis Boston 190 HOME by 7.75 26-Feb-2018 Chicago Brooklyn 219 HOME by 4.26 26-Feb-2018 Golden State New York 226 AWAY by -9.19 26-Feb-2018 Detroit Toronto 208 HOME by 10.48 26-Feb-2018 Phoenix New Orleans 234 HOME by 10.22 26-Feb-2018 Orlando Oklahoma City 212 HOME by 9.10 26-Feb-2018 Indiana Dallas 205 AWAY by -0.57 26-Feb-2018 Houston Utah 206 AWAY by -3.57 26-Feb-2018 Minnesota Sacramento 207 AWAY by -7.94 27-Feb-2018 Brooklyn Cleveland 225 HOME by 4.73 27-Feb-2018 Chicago Charlotte 218 HOME by 7.24 27-Feb-2018 Philadelphia Miami 207 AWAY by -1.67 27-Feb-2018 Washington Milwaukee 209 AWAY by -0.56 27-Feb-2018 Sacramento Portland 200 HOME by 11.14 27-Feb-2018 LA Clippers Denver 216 HOME by 2.74 28-Feb-2018 Milwaukee Detroit 207 HOME by 2.37 28-Feb-2018 Toronto Orlando 217 AWAY by -9.75 28-Feb-2018 Indiana Atlanta 212 AWAY by -3.10 28-Feb-2018 Charlotte Boston 203 HOME by 6.01 28-Feb-2018 Golden State Washington 231 AWAY by -4.50 28-Feb-2018 Phoenix Memphis 209 HOME by 8.37 28-Feb-2018 Oklahoma City Dallas 203 AWAY by -3.02 28-Feb-2018 New Orleans San Antonio 211 HOME by 5.28 28-Feb-2018 Houston LA Clippers 220 AWAY by -5.67 01-Mar-2018 Indiana New Orleans 228 HOME by 0.60 01-Mar-2018 LA Lakers Miami 210 HOME by 3.37 01-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Cleveland 225 AWAY by -1.01 01-Mar-2018 Brooklyn Sacramento 207 AWAY by -2.07 01-Mar-2018 Minnesota Portland 212 HOME by 1.25 02-Mar-2018 Detroit Orlando 205 AWAY by -1.21 02-Mar-2018 Charlotte Philadelphia 213 HOME by 4.73 02-Mar-2018 Golden State Atlanta 227 AWAY by -10.10 02-Mar-2018 Dallas Chicago 203 AWAY by -2.27 02-Mar-2018 Indiana Milwaukee 209 AWAY by -0.01 02-Mar-2018 Toronto Washington 221 AWAY by -4.49 02-Mar-2018 Denver Memphis 206 AWAY by -1.49 02-Mar-2018 Oklahoma City Phoenix 216 AWAY by -10.12 02-Mar-2018 New York LA Clippers 215 HOME by 5.54 02-Mar-2018 Minnesota Utah 206 HOME by 2.06 03-Mar-2018 Memphis Orlando 200 HOME by 0.44 03-Mar-2018 Denver Cleveland 225 HOME by 0.06 03-Mar-2018 Detroit Miami 197 HOME by 1.19 03-Mar-2018 Boston Houston 213 HOME by 6.42 03-Mar-2018 LA Lakers San Antonio 211 HOME by 7.65 03-Mar-2018 Oklahoma City Portland 207 HOME by 0.24 03-Mar-2018 Utah Sacramento 198 AWAY by -8.05 04-Mar-2018 Phoenix Atlanta 219 HOME by 6.52 04-Mar-2018 Indiana Washington 216 HOME by 2.50 04-Mar-2018 Charlotte Toronto 215 HOME by 10.40 04-Mar-2018 New Orleans Dallas 212 HOME by 0.78 04-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Milwaukee 213 AWAY by -1.33 04-Mar-2018 Brooklyn LA Clippers 221 HOME by 5.83 04-Mar-2018 New York Sacramento 201 AWAY by -2.36 05-Mar-2018 Detroit Cleveland 215 HOME by 1.85 05-Mar-2018 Milwaukee Indiana 211 HOME by 3.91 05-Mar-2018 Phoenix Miami 210 HOME by 9.27 05-Mar-2018 Boston Chicago 199 AWAY by -7.39 05-Mar-2018 Memphis San Antonio 192 HOME by 7.13 05-Mar-2018 Orlando Utah 206 HOME by 8.20 05-Mar-2018 Portland LA Lakers 209 AWAY by -2.51 06-Mar-2018 Miami Washington 205 HOME by 4.80 06-Mar-2018 Atlanta Toronto 213 HOME by 13.98 06-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Charlotte 218 AWAY by -0.83 06-Mar-2018 Houston Oklahoma City 211 AWAY by -2.67 06-Mar-2018 Denver Dallas 209 AWAY by -0.81 06-Mar-2018 New York Portland 206 HOME by 6.83 06-Mar-2018 Brooklyn Golden State 225 HOME by 13.38 06-Mar-2018 New Orleans LA Clippers 224 HOME by 2.75 07-Mar-2018 Utah Indiana 207 HOME by 0.41 07-Mar-2018 Memphis Chicago 196 AWAY by -1.60 07-Mar-2018 Toronto Detroit 214 AWAY by -6.58 07-Mar-2018 Houston Milwaukee 212 AWAY by -7.08 07-Mar-2018 New Orleans Sacramento 210 AWAY by -5.16 07-Mar-2018 Cleveland Denver 220 HOME by 3.84 07-Mar-2018 Orlando LA Lakers 217 HOME by 2.93 08-Mar-2018 Brooklyn Charlotte 218 HOME by 4.92 08-Mar-2018 Philadelphia Miami 207 AWAY by -1.67 08-Mar-2018 Boston Minnesota 206 HOME by 0.79 08-Mar-2018 Phoenix Oklahoma City 215 HOME by 14.02 08-Mar-2018 San Antonio Golden State 207 HOME by 6.97

Current home field advantage is: 1.95 MAE for games to date: 9.76 These ratings fit to produce 0.67 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 3.90: 0.72 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -4.59. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 6.50.

Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Each team has its own home "field" advantage, but the average all of them is shown here. The MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be.

Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful.


About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats