Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings


Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 2-3 points for basketball.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Overtimes make this tricky, and are why overtime games are recorded as "ties" because these often cause point totals to skew too high. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which doesn't sound like much but is enough to make a difference over an entire season of games.


Ratings last updated Tuesday 05/28/24 02:00 PM ET Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 1 Boston 73 16 7 3.67 58.76 1 2 Minnesota 63 28 5 2.54 55.18 2 3 Denver 64 29 1 2.48 55.44 3 4 Oklahoma City 60 28 4 2.40 55.38 4 5 Golden State 46 32 5 1.36 52.86 7 6 Dallas 60 37 1 1.36 51.13 5 7 New York 57 36 3 1.32 53.36 9 8 New Orleans 50 36 1 1.23 52.35 8 9 LA Clippers 53 34 1 1.22 51.99 6 10 Phoenix 46 37 3 1.01 52.12 10 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 11 Philadelphia 48 37 4 0.96 53.50 17 12 Sacramento 42 36 6 0.76 52.22 15 13 Milwaukee 49 33 5 0.74 52.51 16 14 Cleveland 50 40 4 0.71 52.44 18 15 LA Lakers 45 38 5 0.64 51.30 13 16 Indiana 53 43 3 0.59 50.41 11 17 Orlando 48 38 3 0.47 50.88 14 18 Miami 46 41 2 0.46 51.43 19 19 Houston 39 36 7 0.08 48.23 12 20 Chicago 33 40 11 -0.60 49.30 20 Rank Team W L OT Rating Points BCS 21 Atlanta 32 46 6 -0.72 49.16 21 22 Brooklyn 31 46 5 -1.03 48.01 22 23 Utah 29 49 4 -1.48 46.46 23 24 Memphis 26 52 4 -1.57 47.23 24 25 Toronto 24 54 4 -1.94 47.14 26 26 San Antonio 19 58 5 -2.63 42.86 25 27 Portland 16 58 8 -3.35 42.02 28 28 Washington 15 65 2 -3.39 43.67 30 29 Charlotte 20 60 2 -3.43 41.56 27 30 Detroit 13 67 3 -3.86 41.10 29
Divisional rankings: Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Pacific 1.00 2 Atlantic 0.60 3 Northwest 0.52 4 Southeast -0.31 5 Central -0.48 6 Southeast -1.32
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 28-May-2024 Minnesota Dallas 227 AWAY by -1.83
Current home field advantage is: 2.22 MAE for games to date: 10.56 These ratings fit to produce 0.63 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.44: 0.73 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.20. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 6.01.

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. shopify stats