Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings

Introduction

This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add in the home field/court advantage, which is listed on the right. It usually is around 0.5 goals for hockey. All of the games in the predictions list already have home advantage taken into account.

8 November: Welcome! Glad you are here. Ratings have started to stabilize for this season, as the influence of last year's games is almost completely gone.

One weird note: Sometimes, for games where the opponent is not yet known (tournaments, travel, etc.), the computer temporarily tags them as "Non-Division I". I'm still trying to find a workaround for that.



NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Computer Ratings (Last updated 05-Feb-2025 09:52 AM ET) Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Boston College 21 4 1 4.53 52.91 1 2 Michigan State 23 4 3 3.55 52.10 2 3 Minnesota 22 6 3 3.15 52.05 5 4 Maine 18 5 3 3.15 52.02 3 5 Denver 19 6 2 2.96 52.29 9 6 Boston University 16 9 2 2.57 51.67 6 7 Providence 17 6 4 2.54 51.28 4 8 Connecticut 14 9 3 2.40 51.46 7 9 Western Michigan 19 5 1 2.25 51.36 8 10 Ohio State 17 8 2 2.04 51.19 12 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Michigan 16 11 2 2.03 51.12 10 12 UMass Lowell 16 8 3 1.80 50.84 11 13 Quinnipiac 16 9 2 1.64 51.08 13 14 Wisconsin 12 14 3 1.61 51.24 18 15 Arizona State 18 9 1 1.55 51.10 16 16 Massachusetts 15 12 2 1.47 51.06 17 17 New Hampshire 13 10 3 1.45 50.91 15 18 Penn State 12 11 3 1.41 50.85 14 19 Northeastern 10 13 3 1.12 50.66 19 20 Nebraska-Omaha 15 12 1 0.94 50.66 23 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Dartmouth 11 9 2 0.90 50.77 27 22 Colorado College 15 12 1 0.88 50.76 28 23 Minnesota State 19 8 2 0.86 50.41 20 24 Cornell 9 7 6 0.85 50.70 26 25 North Dakota 14 11 2 0.82 50.60 25 26 Vermont 10 13 3 0.58 50.41 29 27 Colgate 15 10 2 0.53 50.09 21 28 Augustana 19 7 3 0.43 50.03 22 29 Michigan Tech 16 9 2 0.42 50.04 24 30 Notre Dame 10 16 1 0.31 50.43 37 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 31 Merrimack 11 15 1 0.12 49.87 30 32 Minnesota Duluth 11 13 1 0.12 50.10 34 33 Clarkson 14 10 3 0.10 50.05 32 34 Union 15 10 2 0.03 49.87 31 35 Alaska 12 11 5 0.02 50.01 35 36 LIU 14 11 2 -0.01 50.12 41 37 St. Cloud State 11 15 1 -0.15 49.83 36 38 Princeton 11 10 1 -0.20 49.68 33 39 Holy Cross 15 11 2 -0.22 49.88 42 40 Sacred Heart 18 10 4 -0.40 49.56 38 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 41 St. Thomas 12 12 5 -0.43 49.58 40 42 Harvard 8 12 3 -0.48 49.73 44 43 Brown 9 10 2 -0.56 49.56 43 44 Bowling Green 16 9 4 -0.76 49.12 39 45 Bemidji State 10 15 4 -0.82 49.60 45 46 Bentley 14 13 2 -0.90 49.60 46 47 Lake Superior 11 15 2 -1.03 49.47 48 48 Niagara 15 13 3 -1.28 49.39 51 49 Rensselaer 11 14 2 -1.39 48.99 47 50 Alaska Anchorage 6 19 4 -1.55 49.54 57 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 51 St. Lawrence 9 17 1 -1.56 49.00 50 52 Lindenwood 10 18 2 -1.64 49.31 53 53 American Internation 8 17 1 -2.07 48.81 55 54 Ferris State 10 16 2 -2.09 48.33 49 55 Yale 5 14 2 -2.22 48.48 52 56 Army West Point 12 17 0 -2.22 48.61 54 57 Canisius 9 16 2 -2.45 48.67 59 58 Air Force 11 18 1 -2.56 48.46 58 59 Stonehill 10 22 0 -2.74 48.01 56 60 Northern Michigan 4 24 1 -2.89 48.24 60 61 RIT 8 20 1 -3.07 48.23 62 62 Robert Morris 10 17 4 -3.16 48.16 63 63 Miami 3 21 2 -3.37 47.83 61 64 Mercyhurst 4 20 4 -4.35 47.26 64 65 Non-Division I 2 48 1 -4.57 47.02 65

Each conference is sorted by overall computer ranking (not by conference standings).

Conference Standings (abbreviated) (Last updated 05-Feb-2025 09:52 AM ET) --- Atlantic Hockey CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Holy Cross 14 4 2 15 11 2 -0.22 ( 39) 49.88 1 7 0 1.52 ( 1) 2 Sacred Heart 14 6 2 18 10 4 -0.40 ( 40) 49.56 4 4 2 0.15 ( 27) 3 Bentley 12 7 1 14 13 2 -0.90 ( 46) 49.60 2 6 1 0.95 ( 6) 4 Niagara 12 7 2 15 13 3 -1.28 ( 48) 49.39 3 6 1 -0.98 ( 56) 5 American International 6 12 0 8 17 1 -2.07 ( 53) 48.81 2 5 1 1.18 ( 5) 6 Army West Point 11 9 0 12 17 0 -2.22 ( 56) 48.61 1 8 0 -0.08 ( 34) 7 Canisius 9 8 2 9 16 2 -2.45 ( 57) 48.67 0 8 0 0.71 ( 11) 8 Air Force 8 12 0 11 18 1 -2.56 ( 58) 48.46 3 6 1 0.51 ( 14) 9 RIT 6 13 1 8 20 1 -3.07 ( 61) 48.23 2 7 0 -0.40 ( 41) 10 Robert Morris 6 11 3 10 17 4 -3.16 ( 62) 48.16 4 6 1 -1.39 ( 62) 11 Mercyhurst 4 13 3 4 20 4 -4.35 ( 64) 47.26 0 7 1 0.26 ( 22) --- Big Ten CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Michigan State 12 3 3 23 4 3 3.55 ( 2) 52.10 11 1 0 -0.91 ( 54) 2 Minnesota 12 4 2 22 6 3 3.15 ( 3) 52.05 10 2 1 -0.98 ( 55) 3 Ohio State 9 6 1 17 8 2 2.04 ( 10) 51.19 8 2 1 -1.15 ( 60) 4 Michigan 9 8 1 16 11 2 2.03 ( 11) 51.12 7 3 1 0.87 ( 8) 5 Wisconsin 6 11 1 12 14 3 1.61 ( 14) 51.24 6 3 2 0.07 ( 28) 6 Penn State 3 10 3 12 11 3 1.41 ( 18) 50.85 9 1 0 -0.75 ( 50) 7 Notre Dame 3 12 1 10 16 1 0.31 ( 30) 50.43 7 4 0 -0.65 ( 47) --- CCHA CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Minnesota State 13 5 2 19 8 2 0.86 ( 23) 50.41 6 3 0 0.36 ( 19) 2 Augustana 8 3 1 19 7 3 0.43 ( 28) 50.03 11 4 2 -0.67 ( 48) 3 Michigan Tech 13 5 2 16 9 2 0.42 ( 29) 50.04 3 4 0 0.58 ( 13) 4 St. Thomas 8 8 4 12 12 5 -0.43 ( 41) 49.58 4 4 1 -0.08 ( 32) 5 Bowling Green 10 6 4 16 9 4 -0.76 ( 44) 49.12 6 3 0 -1.81 ( 64) 6 Bemidji State 6 11 3 10 15 4 -0.82 ( 45) 49.60 4 4 1 0.37 ( 18) 7 Lake Superior 7 10 1 11 15 2 -1.03 ( 47) 49.47 4 5 1 -0.65 ( 46) 8 Ferris State 9 11 0 10 16 2 -2.09 ( 54) 48.33 1 5 2 -0.47 ( 42) 9 Northern Michigan 3 18 1 4 24 1 -2.89 ( 60) 48.24 1 6 0 0.76 ( 10) --- ECAC CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Quinnipiac 11 3 2 16 9 2 1.64 ( 13) 51.08 5 6 0 0.93 ( 7) 2 Dartmouth 8 6 1 11 9 2 0.90 ( 21) 50.77 3 3 1 0.70 ( 12) 3 Cornell 5 5 5 9 7 6 0.85 ( 24) 50.70 4 2 1 -0.10 ( 35) 4 Colgate 9 4 1 15 10 2 0.53 ( 27) 50.09 6 6 1 -0.03 ( 31) 5 Clarkson 8 5 1 14 10 3 0.10 ( 33) 50.05 6 5 2 -0.62 ( 45) 6 Union 9 5 1 15 10 2 0.03 ( 34) 49.87 6 5 1 -0.83 ( 52) 7 Princeton 5 8 1 11 10 1 -0.20 ( 38) 49.68 6 2 0 -0.20 ( 38) 8 Harvard 6 7 2 8 12 3 -0.48 ( 42) 49.73 2 5 1 1.18 ( 4) 9 Brown 5 8 1 9 10 2 -0.56 ( 43) 49.56 4 2 1 -0.58 ( 43) 10 Rensselaer 5 10 0 11 14 2 -1.39 ( 49) 48.99 6 4 2 -1.14 ( 59) 11 St. Lawrence 4 9 1 9 17 1 -1.56 ( 51) 49.00 5 8 0 -0.79 ( 51) 12 Yale 4 9 2 5 14 2 -2.22 ( 55) 48.48 1 5 0 1.34 ( 2) --- Hockey East CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Boston College 13 3 1 21 4 1 4.53 ( 1) 52.91 8 1 0 0.31 ( 21) 2 Maine 9 3 3 18 5 3 3.15 ( 4) 52.02 9 2 0 -0.39 ( 40) 3 Boston University 10 5 1 16 9 2 2.57 ( 6) 51.67 6 4 1 -0.18 ( 37) 4 Providence 7 5 4 17 6 4 2.54 ( 7) 51.28 10 1 0 0.42 ( 17) 5 Connecticut 7 7 3 14 9 3 2.40 ( 8) 51.46 7 2 0 0.34 ( 20) 6 UMass Lowell 7 6 2 16 8 3 1.80 ( 12) 50.84 9 2 1 -0.60 ( 44) 7 Massachusetts 5 8 2 15 12 2 1.47 ( 16) 51.06 10 4 0 -1.17 ( 61) 8 New Hampshire 3 9 2 13 10 3 1.45 ( 17) 50.91 10 1 1 -1.00 ( 57) 9 Northeastern 4 11 3 10 13 3 1.12 ( 19) 50.66 6 2 0 0.43 ( 16) 10 Vermont 4 9 2 10 13 3 0.58 ( 26) 50.41 6 4 1 -0.74 ( 49) 11 Merrimack 6 9 1 11 15 1 0.12 ( 31) 49.87 5 6 0 -0.87 ( 53) --- NCHC CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Denver 8 5 1 19 6 2 2.96 ( 5) 52.29 11 1 1 -0.28 ( 39) 2 Western Michigan 11 2 1 19 5 1 2.25 ( 9) 51.36 8 3 0 -0.00 ( 30) 3 Arizona State 11 5 0 18 9 1 1.55 ( 15) 51.10 7 4 1 -1.10 ( 58) 4 Nebraska-Omaha 10 5 1 15 12 1 0.94 ( 20) 50.66 5 7 0 0.21 ( 24) 5 Colorado College 7 8 1 15 12 1 0.88 ( 22) 50.76 8 4 0 -1.43 ( 63) 6 North Dakota 8 5 1 14 11 2 0.82 ( 25) 50.60 6 6 1 -0.08 ( 33) 7 Minnesota Duluth 6 8 0 11 13 1 0.12 ( 32) 50.10 5 5 1 -0.16 ( 36) 8 St. Cloud State 4 11 1 11 15 1 -0.15 ( 37) 49.83 7 4 0 1.33 ( 3) 9 Miami 0 16 0 3 21 2 -3.37 ( 63) 47.83 3 5 2 -1.96 ( 65) --- Independent CW CL CT W L T Rating Rank Points NCWNCLNCT Non-Conf Sched 1 Alaska 6 1 1 12 11 5 0.02 ( 35) 50.01 6 10 4 0.76 ( 9) 2 LIU 8 1 0 14 11 2 -0.01 ( 36) 50.12 6 10 2 0.22 ( 23) 3 Alaska Anchorage 3 3 1 6 19 4 -1.55 ( 50) 49.54 3 16 3 0.06 ( 29) 4 Lindenwood 6 2 0 10 18 2 -1.64 ( 52) 49.31 4 16 2 0.21 ( 25) 5 Stonehill 4 8 0 10 22 0 -2.74 ( 59) 48.01 6 14 0 0.17 ( 26) 6 Non-Division I 0 12 0 2 48 1 -4.57 ( 65) 47.02 2 36 1 0.45 ( 15)

The average computer rating of all teams in the conference is shown here.

Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 Big Ten 2.01 2 Hockey East 1.98 3 NCHC 0.67 4 ECAC -0.20 5 CCHA -0.70 6 Independent -1.75 7 Atlantic Hockey -2.06
Predicted margins and totals for games in the next 2-3 days.

Many thanks to US College Hockey (uscho.com), who provides the schedule information that goes into these predictions.

During in-season tournaments, a "Non-Division I" flag may appear if an opponent is not yet known. Those will resolve as tournament games get played.

(Last updated 05-Feb-2025 09:52 AM ET) PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 06-Feb-2025 Lindenwood LIU 5.3 HOME by 1.03 06-Feb-2025 Brown Yale 6.9 AWAY by -0.87 07-Feb-2025 Denver Arizona State 5.1 AWAY by -0.98 07-Feb-2025 Sacred Heart Army West Point 6.6 AWAY by -0.74 07-Feb-2025 Robert Morris Bentley 6.4 HOME by 1.66 07-Feb-2025 St. Thomas Bowling Green 3.9 AWAY by -0.24 07-Feb-2025 Air Force Canisius 5.0 HOME by 0.42 07-Feb-2025 Union Colgate 6.6 HOME by 0.43 07-Feb-2025 Massachusetts Connecticut 6.1 HOME by 0.62 07-Feb-2025 Rensselaer Cornell 6.1 HOME by 1.92 07-Feb-2025 Harvard Dartmouth 6.1 HOME by 1.26 07-Feb-2025 Northern Michigan Lake Superior 5.0 HOME by 1.45 07-Feb-2025 Lindenwood LIU 5.3 HOME by 1.03 07-Feb-2025 Vermont UMass Lowell 5.3 HOME by 0.64 07-Feb-2025 American Internation Mercyhurst 6.3 AWAY by -1.34 07-Feb-2025 Boston University Merrimack 6.8 AWAY by -1.58 07-Feb-2025 Michigan Michigan State 7.2 HOME by 1.19 07-Feb-2025 Bemidji State Michigan Tech 6.1 HOME by 0.65 07-Feb-2025 Augustana Minnesota State 2.3 HOME by 0.59 07-Feb-2025 Boston College New Hampshire 5.8 AWAY by -1.79 07-Feb-2025 Colorado College North Dakota 5.2 HOME by 0.05 07-Feb-2025 Ohio State Notre Dame 4.8 AWAY by -0.54 07-Feb-2025 Minnesota Duluth Nebraska-Omaha 5.8 HOME by 0.77 07-Feb-2025 Clarkson Princeton 5.9 AWAY by -0.15 07-Feb-2025 Maine Providence 3.8 AWAY by -0.53 07-Feb-2025 St. Lawrence Quinnipiac 4.7 HOME by 2.29 07-Feb-2025 Holy Cross RIT 6.2 AWAY by -1.44 07-Feb-2025 St. Cloud State Western Michigan 4.4 HOME by 1.75 07-Feb-2025 Penn State Wisconsin 5.2 HOME by 0.60 08-Feb-2025 Alaska Anchorage Alaska 5.6 HOME by 0.69 08-Feb-2025 Denver Arizona State 5.1 AWAY by -0.98 08-Feb-2025 Sacred Heart Army West Point 6.6 AWAY by -0.74 08-Feb-2025 Robert Morris Bentley 6.4 HOME by 1.66 08-Feb-2025 St. Thomas Bowling Green 3.9 AWAY by -0.24 08-Feb-2025 Air Force Canisius 5.0 HOME by 0.42 08-Feb-2025 Rensselaer Colgate 7.0 HOME by 1.31 08-Feb-2025 UMass Lowell Connecticut 6.6 HOME by 0.84 08-Feb-2025 Union Cornell 5.7 HOME by 1.04 08-Feb-2025 Northern Michigan Lake Superior 5.0 HOME by 1.45 08-Feb-2025 American Internation Mercyhurst 6.3 AWAY by -1.34 08-Feb-2025 Michigan State Michigan 5.7 Mich by -0.98 08-Feb-2025 Bemidji State Michigan Tech 6.1 HOME by 0.65 08-Feb-2025 Augustana Minnesota State 2.3 HOME by 0.59 08-Feb-2025 Merrimack New Hampshire 5.7 HOME by 1.25 08-Feb-2025 Colorado College North Dakota 5.2 HOME by 0.05 08-Feb-2025 Ohio State Notre Dame 4.8 AWAY by -0.54 08-Feb-2025 Minnesota Duluth Nebraska-Omaha 5.8 HOME by 0.77 08-Feb-2025 St. Lawrence Princeton 4.5 HOME by 0.89 08-Feb-2025 Maine Providence 3.8 AWAY by -0.53 08-Feb-2025 Clarkson Quinnipiac 6.1 HOME by 1.25 08-Feb-2025 Holy Cross RIT 6.2 AWAY by -1.44 08-Feb-2025 St. Cloud State Western Michigan 4.4 HOME by 1.75 08-Feb-2025 Penn State Wisconsin 5.2 HOME by 0.60 09-Feb-2025 Yale Brown 4.5 HOME by 1.30 11-Feb-2025 Canisius Niagara 5.4 HOME by 0.94 12-Feb-2025 Alaska Anchorage Connecticut 6.5 HOME by 2.14

Original text files

Feel free to use and share this data, with credit to talismanred.com. Thanks.

Data Source

I am thoroughly grateful to US College Hockey not only for providing a national list of scores on their website, but for ALL their contributions to hockey over the years. If you do not frequent their site, you should.

How the ratings work

More information is provided in the explanation over on the college football page (under Explanation), but the premise is that your rating is determined by: who you played; how you did; and when you played. No other information is included: actual players on the ice, injuries, penalties, attendance, etc. Contrary to the RPI or Pairwise rankings, more recent games are weighted slightly more, since it's reasonable to expect that a team's strength and ability will evolve as a season goes on.

Are your ratings any good?

Great question. I'll admit that I've never tracked them for college hockey! But in 2023-24, for college basketball, they predicted 70.3% of the correct winners (ESPN BPI got 71.4%). And for college football in 2023, they predicted 71.5% of the correct winners (ESPN FPI got 72.6%). So on any given night, I would argue the results are comparable to anyone else.

About the author

I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. They had already been forced to play up to D-I by the time I had arrived, so I missed their D-II glory days, but I attended every home game in the years I was there. Even when I was there, we knew that all it would take was one stingy university president to bring the axe down. It was a sad day, seeing the program shutter.

I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.


 

 

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