What to Expect
Following the ratings from the start this year? Here's what you'll see.
After Week 1:
On the Wobus side, every team that wins will be rated 0.33 plus their "class bonus" (0.5 for 6A, 0.4 for 5A, etc., no bonus for 1A). So all 1A teams that win are 0.33, all 6A teams that win are 0.83, regardless of who anyone plays.
In the Wilson ratings, the team's starting rankings are very important for the first few weeks, so the results will be a function of who plays who. A 4A team that beats a 4A team will be rated higher than a 4A team that beats a 2A team, for example.
Remember what every coach tells his team at the beginning of the year: "we all start 0-0, every team starts the same." That's a benefit of the computer ratings--no unfair advantage. In Wilson's system, the starting ratings by class (look at the numbers beside each class in the conference alignment) will mean nothing by weeks four and five--the starting ratings only help you get an idea of who should go where early in the season.
Early in the season, these ratings mean very little. The math overwhelms the true information you can get from them until late September. Take the results for what they are--just numbers--for the first, say, four weeks.
Late September:
By Week 4 (give or take a week), the ratings have "taken shape." What I mean by that is that teams begin to fall into where they should be. This is more true in the Wobus rating, because it doesn't consider a starting point for any team (the "class bonus" is added once all ratings are finished). Even by week 6 or 7, the Wilson system may have a stray team wildly out of place (last year, after four weeks Bullock County, 0-4, and Dale County, 0-4, were rated higher than Hamilton, 4-0). That's why I offer two ratings--a blend of the two is usually the best approach.
One of the most important features by mid-season is the region standings--and this is probably what gets the most use at the website. At the end of week 4, each team will have played about three region games, so we're well on our way to figuring out who stands the best shot at the playoffs.
Week 5:
The ratings stabilize a great deal after week 5. Here, I mean that those stray teams most often will fall back into place. A discussion of why this happens is best left to another page, but the ratings are helped by the non-region games that are played in week 5.
October and beyond:
Weeks 6 through 9 are region games for most teams, and the region standings take precedence. As with all times during the season, the computer ratings are "just for fun" but the standings are what go into the playoff brackets. Still, I think we can learn from both.
End of season:
Obviously at this point the brackets matter more than the computer ratings, and become the major draw to the page. One of the site's patrons, Corey G., provided me with a nice Excel spreadsheet a few years ago that has become the cornerstone of the bracket creation for the site. We all owe him a huge thanks for that.
At any rate, I believe the final regular season computer ratings identify the championship-caliber teams, and those who need an upset or two in their part of the bracket to move on. We're also able to identify overrated and underrated teams. Also, the ratings generally have good agreement with the ASWA "polls" after 10 games, as they probably should.
Any questions or comments? Email me at ratings@talismanred.com.