English Premier League
Computer Ratings |
This is my first rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting the margin of victory of a match. The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Pts" column. You can the calculation for some upcoming games on the right. Don't forget to add in home "field" advantage, which is listed just below the current predictions on the right.
Early season notes:
- predictions are based on much of last season's results until 5 or 6 matches in
Ratings last updated Sunday 04/02/17, 06:18 PM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Chelsea 22 4 3 3.62 1.22 1 2 Tottenham Hotspur 18 3 8 3.41 1.24 2 3 Liverpool 17 5 8 2.57 0.93 3 4 Manchester City 17 5 7 2.36 0.82 4 5 Manchester United 14 3 11 1.87 0.54 5 6 Arsenal 15 7 6 1.78 0.75 6 7 Everton 14 8 8 1.44 0.60 7 8 West Bromwich Albion 12 10 8 0.23 0.01 8 9 Southampton 9 12 7 -0.62 -0.15 10 10 Stoke City 9 12 9 -0.63 -0.30 9 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Bournemouth 9 14 7 -1.09 -0.41 12 12 Leicester City 9 14 6 -1.10 -0.44 11 13 Crystal Palace 9 16 4 -1.19 -0.35 15 14 Burnley 9 16 5 -1.25 -0.38 16 15 West Ham United 9 15 6 -1.27 -0.44 14 16 Watford 9 13 7 -1.37 -0.55 13 17 Middlesbrough 4 14 11 -1.77 -0.44 19 18 Swansea City 8 18 4 -2.13 -0.85 18 19 Hull City 7 17 6 -2.24 -0.95 17 20 Sunderland 5 19 5 -2.60 -0.85 20(The "BCS style" ranking is one based entirely on wins and losses, similar to what is used in college football.) |
PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Home Team Away Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 25-Feb-2017 Southampton Arsenal 3.0 AWAY by -0.49 12-Mar-2017 Southampton Manchester United 2.0 AWAY by -0.28 13-Mar-2017 Chelsea Watford 3.2 HOME by 2.18 04-Apr-2017 Arsenal West Ham United 3.7 HOME by 1.60 04-Apr-2017 Burnley Stoke City 2.3 HOME by 0.32 04-Apr-2017 Hull City Middlesbrough 1.7 AWAY by -0.10 04-Apr-2017 Leicester City Sunderland 2.5 HOME by 0.82 04-Apr-2017 Manchester United Everton 2.0 HOME by 0.35 04-Apr-2017 Swansea City Tottenham Hotspur 3.1 AWAY by -1.68 04-Apr-2017 Watford West Bromwich Albion 2.4 AWAY by -0.15 05-Apr-2017 Chelsea Manchester City 3.7 HOME by 0.80 05-Apr-2017 Liverpool Bournemouth 3.9 HOME by 1.74 05-Apr-2017 Southampton Crystal Palace 2.7 HOME by 0.61 08-Apr-2017 Bournemouth Chelsea 2.8 AWAY by -1.22 08-Apr-2017 Crystal Palace Arsenal 3.3 AWAY by -0.70 08-Apr-2017 Everton Leicester City 3.0 HOME by 1.45 08-Apr-2017 Manchester City Hull City 2.6 HOME by 2.18 08-Apr-2017 Middlesbrough Burnley 1.8 HOME by 0.35 08-Apr-2017 Stoke City Liverpool 3.0 AWAY by -0.81 08-Apr-2017 Sunderland Manchester United 2.5 AWAY by -0.98 08-Apr-2017 Tottenham Hotspur Watford 2.8 HOME by 2.19 08-Apr-2017 West Bromwich Albion Southampton 2.9 HOME by 0.57 08-Apr-2017 West Ham United Swansea City 3.4 HOME by 0.82 15-Apr-2017 Crystal Palace Leicester City 2.6 HOME by 0.50 15-Apr-2017 Everton Burnley 2.6 HOME by 1.39 15-Apr-2017 Manchester United Chelsea 1.6 AWAY by -0.27 15-Apr-2017 Middlesbrough Arsenal 2.8 AWAY by -0.78 15-Apr-2017 Southampton Manchester City 2.7 AWAY by -0.56 15-Apr-2017 Stoke City Hull City 2.4 HOME by 1.06 15-Apr-2017 Sunderland West Ham United 3.3 AWAY by -0.00 15-Apr-2017 Tottenham Hotspur Bournemouth 3.3 HOME by 2.05 15-Apr-2017 Watford Swansea City 3.4 HOME by 0.71 15-Apr-2017 West Bromwich Albion Liverpool 3.4 AWAY by -0.51 Current home field advantage is: 0.41 MAE for games to date: 1.22 These ratings fit to produce 0.59 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.82: 0.75 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.72. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.79. Above are some statistics about the ratings model. Home "field" advantage is shown first. MAE is the mean absolute error of the ratings fit to all the games played to date. This number is usually larger than you think it should be, but to me it's a good measure of how variable (or maybe "predictable") game outcomes can be. Immediately below that, you can see how this best fit does in retro-predicting (there's a better word I'm sure) just the game winners. My favorite stats are the last two--when the home or away team is favored by the given margin, they only lose 30 percent of the time. This is the kind of information that people in the sports wagering world might find useful. |
About the author
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.