Computer Ratings
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2012 College Football
Computer Ratings |
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Welcome to 2012!
The Predictions are also available.
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Ratings last updated Tuesday 01/08/13, 11:40 AM ET
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BCS-Style
Rank Team W L Rating Pts Rank
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1 Alabama 13 1 4.961 76.90 1
2 Oregon 12 1 4.812 75.44 6
3 Texas A&M 11 2 4.806 73.19 4
4 Notre Dame 12 1 4.559 64.85 2
5 Georgia 12 2 4.528 67.68 9
6 Florida 11 2 4.526 63.97 3
7 Stanford 12 2 4.451 62.93 5
8 Kansas St 11 2 4.425 69.15 10
9 South Carolina 11 2 4.415 63.37 7
10 Ohio State 12 0 4.250 58.87 8
11 Oklahoma 10 3 4.211 64.96 12
12 LSU 10 3 4.190 62.68 11
13 Clemson 11 2 4.040 60.49 13
14 Florida St 12 2 4.033 62.82 14
15 Oregon St 9 4 3.897 62.13 20
16 Baylor 8 5 3.812 61.22 24
17 Texas 9 4 3.786 59.61 22
18 Oklahoma St 8 5 3.778 64.49 35
19 Utah St 11 2 3.725 58.34 23
20 San José St 11 2 3.675 52.90 15
21 Nebraska 10 4 3.671 54.27 18
22 Vanderbilt 9 4 3.666 54.68 19
23 Michigan 8 5 3.662 57.98 28
24 Northwestern 10 3 3.631 54.46 21
25 UCLA 9 5 3.625 56.81 27
26 Arizona St 8 5 3.609 60.94 39
27 North Dakota St 14 1 3.608 51.06 16
28 Wisconsin 8 6 3.546 59.04 41
29 Louisville 11 2 3.524 49.52 17
30 Southern Cal 7 6 3.502 59.12 46
31 Northern Illinois 12 2 3.501 52.47 26
32 Arizona 8 5 3.500 53.61 29
33 Penn State 8 4 3.485 54.33 32
34 Boise St 11 2 3.483 53.51 31
35 Mississippi 7 6 3.482 55.36 36
36 Cincinnati 10 3 3.430 51.79 30
37 Brigham Young 8 5 3.410 57.94 54
38 Syracuse 8 5 3.389 51.93 33
39 Arkansas St 10 3 3.347 47.41 25
40 Tulsa 11 3 3.335 50.95 37
41 Central Florida 10 4 3.332 52.99 43
42 Missouri 5 7 3.324 52.15 40
43 Michigan St 7 6 3.324 52.47 42
44 Texas Tech 8 5 3.309 54.52 52
45 Mississippi St 8 5 3.287 52.12 44
46 Washington 7 6 3.223 50.65 47
47 Louisiana Tech 9 3 3.221 51.25 49
48 Fresno St 9 4 3.209 53.50 61
49 TCU 7 6 3.196 54.81 67
50 Kent St 11 3 3.170 45.23 34
51 North Carolina 8 4 3.163 51.20 56
52 Miami FL 7 5 3.157 48.27 45
53 West Virginia 7 6 3.154 52.32 62
54 Rutgers 9 4 3.061 46.88 53
55 Iowa St 6 7 3.056 52.39 75
56 Sam Houston St 11 4 3.052 46.56 51
57 San Diego St 9 4 3.001 47.63 63
58 Louisiana-Lafayette 9 4 3.000 45.34 55
59 Ball St 9 4 2.999 41.56 38
60 Georgia Tech 7 7 2.996 50.20 72
61 Virginia Tech 7 6 2.946 46.39 65
62 Toledo 9 4 2.925 41.79 48
63 Utah 5 7 2.880 50.47 89
64 Georgia Southern 10 4 2.879 42.79 58
65 Tennessee 5 7 2.863 48.55 82
66 SMU 7 6 2.850 47.52 78
67 Arkansas 4 8 2.839 45.91 76
68 Montana St 11 2 2.837 39.58 50
69 Pittsburgh 6 7 2.828 47.73 86
70 North Carolina St 7 6 2.786 45.70 80
71 Louisiana-Monroe 8 5 2.765 43.05 71
72 Eastern Washington 11 3 2.737 38.20 57
73 Purdue 6 7 2.735 44.01 79
74 South Dakota St 9 4 2.726 39.33 64
75 Navy 8 5 2.655 38.17 68
76 Middle Tennessee St 8 4 2.646 37.37 66
77 East Carolina 8 5 2.602 38.24 73
78 Minn St-Mankato 13 1 2.580 33.81 59
79 Bowling Green 8 5 2.562 39.09 81
80 Central Arkansas 9 3 2.557 36.35 69
81 Duke 6 7 2.531 39.94 91
82 Minnesota 6 7 2.530 42.77 105
83 Ohio U. 9 4 2.521 38.11 85
84 California 3 9 2.517 43.93 111
85 Cal Poly SLO 9 3 2.504 38.66 87
86 Illinois St 9 4 2.501 34.73 70
87 Auburn 3 9 2.500 41.51 103
88 NW Missouri St 10 3 2.492 41.01 102
89 Iowa 4 8 2.470 43.81 122
90 Wofford 9 4 2.459 37.41 88
91 Rice 7 6 2.456 39.81 101
92 Western Kentucky 7 6 2.434 39.62 104
93 Tennessee-Martin 8 3 2.429 29.23 60
94 Missouri Western 12 2 2.423 34.15 77
95 Eastern Kentucky 8 3 2.415 32.50 74
96 Appalachian St 8 4 2.374 33.46 83
97 Southern Illinois 6 5 2.358 35.08 94
98 Nevada 7 6 2.341 41.90 134
99 Indiana St 7 4 2.339 35.89 98
100 Old Dominion 11 2 2.323 35.12 97
101 Indiana 4 8 2.309 39.76 129
102 Youngstown St 7 4 2.305 34.00 96
103 Northern Iowa 5 6 2.278 40.31 137
104 Ashland 11 1 2.272 34.04 100
105 Valdosta St 12 2 2.257 31.79 93
106 Kentucky 2 10 2.255 37.80 128
107 Minnesota-Duluth 10 2 2.247 35.21 110
108 Connecticut 5 7 2.236 38.30 132
109 Washington St 3 9 2.218 38.22 135
110 Towson 7 4 2.215 35.71 117
111 Virginia 4 8 2.208 38.63 140
112 Troy 5 7 2.175 38.41 147
113 Central Michigan 7 6 2.170 30.79 99
114 South Florida 3 9 2.153 39.06 154
115 Temple 4 7 2.151 36.72 139
116 Eastern Illinois 7 5 2.144 28.07 92
117 Wake Forest 5 7 2.138 31.66 109
118 Stony Brook 10 3 2.134 33.83 125
119 McNeese St 7 4 2.130 33.17 119
120 Samford 7 4 2.110 31.64 114
121 Tennessee St 8 3 2.100 25.00 84
122 Winona St 10 2 2.095 27.08 95
123 Chattanooga 6 5 2.093 33.29 130
124 Jacksonville St 6 5 2.085 26.04 90
125 Northern Arizona 8 3 2.078 31.64 120
126 Houston 5 7 2.072 35.29 148
127 Marshall 5 7 2.054 35.62 153
128 West Texas A&M 12 3 2.041 28.40 106
129 Villanova 8 4 2.021 33.57 146
130 The Citadel 7 4 2.019 28.56 112
131 Kansas 1 11 1.991 38.17 178
132 Maryland 4 8 1.991 36.92 166
133 Richmond 8 3 1.943 31.80 151
134 Texas-San Antonio 8 4 1.936 27.91 126
135 Sioux Falls 9 2 1.931 25.17 108
136 Bethune-Cookman 9 3 1.926 25.93 113
137 Winston-Salem St 14 1 1.915 24.51 107
138 Western Michigan 4 8 1.913 34.65 168
139 Murray St 5 6 1.909 26.90 124
140 Southern Utah 5 6 1.901 30.64 152
141 Coastal Carolina 8 5 1.895 26.66 127
142 Shippensburg 11 2 1.895 25.84 118
143 North Texas 4 8 1.888 31.85 156
144 Boston College 2 10 1.888 36.83 197
145 Wyoming 4 8 1.885 33.60 164
146 Colorado St 4 8 1.877 31.99 160
147 Henderson St 10 1 1.876 32.23 161
148 Memphis 4 8 1.875 31.37 155
149 Air Force 6 7 1.872 33.48 170
150 Michigan Tech 7 3 1.861 28.88 149
151 Albany NY 9 2 1.855 28.09 142
152 Buffalo 4 8 1.835 30.28 157
153 Miami OH 4 8 1.834 27.67 144
154 Missouri St 3 8 1.832 30.30 158
155 Harvard 8 2 1.818 33.48 184
156 Indiana PA 12 2 1.813 23.48 121
157 Texas St-San Marcos 4 8 1.809 33.51 188
158 UTEP 3 9 1.804 34.02 195
159 Florida Atlantic 3 9 1.785 31.60 175
160 Florida Int'l 3 9 1.764 32.99 196
161 Grand Valley St 8 3 1.757 25.08 143
162 Saginaw Valley St 8 3 1.741 22.49 131
163 Midwestern St 9 2 1.737 22.92 133
164 Colorado St-Pueblo 12 1 1.730 20.38 115
165 James Madison 7 4 1.716 29.68 177
166 Lehigh 10 1 1.696 22.27 136
167 Illinois 2 10 1.683 31.03 201
168 Montana 5 6 1.683 30.06 191
169 Alabama-Birmingham 3 9 1.679 29.70 189
170 Emporia St 10 2 1.678 19.32 123
171 New Hampshire 8 4 1.672 27.44 172
172 Sacramento St 6 5 1.653 24.87 159
173 Stephen F. Austin 5 6 1.636 27.38 181
174 Trinity CT 8 0 1.626 20.18 138
175 Hillsdale 7 4 1.600 24.04 163
176 New Haven 10 1 1.575 19.25 141
177 Ohio Dominican 8 3 1.563 26.33 190
178 North Dakota 5 6 1.554 25.21 183
179 Harding 9 2 1.530 24.00 180
180 Colgate 8 4 1.528 25.36 193
181 St Cloud St 7 4 1.510 22.11 167
182 New Mexico 4 9 1.509 31.75 244
183 UC-Davis 4 7 1.507 26.28 208
184 SE Louisiana St 5 6 1.476 16.68 145
185 Wagner 9 4 1.462 21.78 176
186 Colorado 1 11 1.462 24.97 210
187 Pittsburg St 7 3 1.459 20.76 171
188 Eastern Michigan 2 10 1.448 24.02 203
189 Ferris St 7 4 1.414 19.56 174
190 Northern Colorado 5 6 1.404 22.01 198
191 Army 2 10 1.397 27.35 236
192 Bemidji St 7 4 1.388 18.28 165
193 Arkansas-Pine Bluff 10 2 1.385 9.97 116
194 Central Missouri 6 4 1.384 20.88 192
195 Chadron St 9 3 1.355 16.40 162
196 West Alabama 8 4 1.337 20.81 204
197 Tulane 2 10 1.326 24.60 231
198 Bloomsburg 10 2 1.321 12.49 150
199 Maine 5 6 1.315 28.86 264
200 Liberty 6 5 1.315 19.38 199
201 Mount Union 15 0 1.315 21.31 217
202 UNLV 2 11 1.310 29.30 268
203 Hawai`i 3 9 1.307 25.24 241
204 Furman 3 8 1.298 24.12 235
205 Findlay 7 3 1.281 16.30 179
206 Portland St 3 8 1.255 25.83 257
207 Wayne St NE 6 5 1.245 19.62 218
208 Lindenwood MO 8 4 1.239 15.78 187
209 Indianapolis 10 3 1.235 17.81 207
210 California PA 8 3 1.216 14.54 182
211 Mary Hardin-Baylor 13 1 1.208 17.24 211
212 North Carolina A&T 7 4 1.201 17.76 216
213 Drake 8 3 1.199 16.16 202
214 Brown 7 3 1.164 19.10 227
215 Shepherd 8 3 1.159 15.52 209
216 South Alabama 2 11 1.135 25.19 282
217 Abilene Christian 7 4 1.128 15.25 213
218 Northern St SD 6 5 1.116 17.84 230
219 Delaware 5 6 1.115 24.13 277
220 Idaho 1 11 1.111 19.13 240
221 San Diego 8 3 1.108 16.75 225
222 Augustana SD 5 6 1.104 18.97 242
223 South Carolina St 5 6 1.099 13.55 206
224 Middlebury 7 1 1.099 12.89 200
225 Delaware St 6 5 1.087 15.74 223
226 Mercyhurst 9 2 1.084 9.31 173
227 Pennsylvania 6 4 1.083 18.06 239
228 Carson-Newman 9 3 1.083 14.90 221
229 Akron 1 11 1.082 25.40 296
230 New Mexico Highlands 8 3 1.082 14.83 220
231 Alabama St 7 4 1.080 13.35 212
232 Weber St 2 9 1.065 22.07 270
233 Tuskegee 10 2 1.062 10.27 185
234 Jackson St 7 5 1.042 9.65 186
235 Lenoir-Rhyne 9 3 1.039 16.59 238
236 SE Missouri St 3 8 1.039 16.02 234
237 Howard 7 4 1.025 9.90 194
238 Fordham 6 5 1.024 18.96 258
239 St Thomas 14 1 1.022 7.14 169
240 Tarleton St 6 4 1.013 14.93 232
241 South Dakota 1 10 1.012 21.95 285
242 West Chester 7 4 1.008 14.89 233
243 UW-Oshkosh 13 1 1.007 10.69 205
244 Wayne St MI 5 5 1.007 13.75 226
245 Southern Miss 0 12 1.005 24.02 302
246 Princeton 5 5 1.004 22.44 294
247 Elon 3 8 0.990 19.76 271
248 Kutztown 7 4 0.985 13.62 228
249 Tennessee Tech 3 8 0.985 15.48 243
250 Washburn 7 4 0.964 10.19 214
251 Morningside 13 1 0.961 15.02 246
252 Southern Oregon 9 3 0.959 17.51 262
253 Northwestern St 4 7 0.953 16.09 254
254 Dartmouth 6 4 0.943 18.43 274
255 Southern Arkansas 8 3 0.920 16.12 260
256 North Carolina Central 6 5 0.895 12.88 245
257 Marian IN 12 1 0.894 8.16 215
258 Western Illinois 3 8 0.888 12.99 248
259 Florida A&M 4 7 0.884 14.64 259
260 Charleston WV 9 2 0.870 9.22 224
261 TAMU-Kingsville 6 6 0.863 12.52 249
262 Alabama A&M 7 4 0.842 7.35 219
263 Linfield 11 1 0.841 10.44 237
264 New Mexico St 1 11 0.834 18.52 299
265 Missouri S&T 10 1 0.780 10.23 250
266 Massachusetts 1 11 0.775 13.46 276
267 Northwood 5 6 0.770 15.13 292
268 Western Carolina 1 10 0.750 16.69 307
269 Monmouth NJ 5 5 0.738 15.34 298
270 Lamar 4 8 0.735 11.57 269
271 Northern Michigan 4 7 0.735 9.13 252
272 Slippery Rock 6 5 0.729 9.06 253
273 St Francis PA 5 6 0.722 15.10 300
274 North Alabama 5 5 0.706 13.42 295
275 Amherst 6 2 0.700 8.00 251
276 William & Mary 2 9 0.699 23.18 374
277 UW-Platteville 8 2 0.697 12.28 287
278 Concord 7 4 0.686 6.73 247
279 Adams St 8 3 0.682 7.84 256
280 Bentley 8 2 0.678 4.26 229
281 Missouri Southern 6 5 0.671 8.63 263
282 Northeastern St OK 4 6 0.667 7.39 255
283 American Int'l 7 3 0.648 1.75 222
284 Butler 8 3 0.640 7.54 261
285 Dayton 6 5 0.638 10.74 290
286 Central Washington 7 4 0.637 10.82 291
287 Jacksonville FL 7 4 0.634 9.54 280
288 SW Minnesota St 4 7 0.627 9.77 284
289 St Xavier 11 2 0.614 7.50 266
290 Miles 8 3 0.611 9.76 289
291 Montana Tech 8 3 0.576 9.17 293
292 Duquesne 5 6 0.568 14.92 336
293 Wesley 10 2 0.568 6.35 267
294 Glenville St 6 5 0.567 7.25 278
295 Angelo St 5 6 0.536 7.29 286
296 Ouachita Baptist 6 4 0.521 10.30 315
297 Lafayette 5 6 0.492 12.99 338
298 Fort Hays St 5 6 0.475 3.88 272
299 Charleston Southern 5 6 0.447 3.68 279
300 Robert Morris 4 7 0.429 9.47 328
301 Norfolk St 4 7 0.420 7.15 314
302 Gardner-Webb 3 8 0.419 5.92 304
303 Cornell NY 4 6 0.415 12.76 356
304 East Central OK 6 5 0.410 6.28 309
305 Georgetown DC 5 6 0.406 9.57 333
306 Cumberlands KY 10 2 0.399 10.23 340
307 Humboldt St 7 4 0.383 5.58 311
308 Austin Peay 2 9 0.380 2.60 288
309 Mars Hill 6 4 0.363 5.05 313
310 North Central 9 3 0.362 9.01 339
311 Colorado Mines 6 5 0.361 10.39 350
312 Western Oregon 6 5 0.349 5.37 317
313 Missouri Valley 12 1 0.346 3.67 303
314 Edinboro 4 6 0.337 5.44 320
315 Bates 5 3 0.336 4.00 310
316 East Stroudsburg 5 5 0.332 3.15 301
317 Nicholls St 1 10 0.331 8.98 346
318 Georgetown KY 10 1 0.329 9.01 347
319 McMurry 8 3 0.329 -1.51 265
320 Fort Valley St 8 4 0.320 -0.15 281
321 Elizabeth City St 8 4 0.319 -0.79 275
322 Hampton 3 7 0.288 5.10 327
323 UW-Whitewater 7 3 0.272 5.41 332
324 UNC-Pembroke 6 4 0.261 3.13 321
325 St Augustine's 6 4 0.261 0.02 297
326 Mary 4 7 0.255 3.84 326
327 St Francis IN 9 3 0.244 2.45 319
328 Holy Cross 2 9 0.225 12.32 413
329 Concordia-St Paul 2 9 0.224 8.18 369
330 Carroll MT 7 4 0.223 7.31 363
331 Wesleyan 5 3 0.219 3.01 329
332 Merrimack 6 4 0.218 0.98 316
333 Williams 4 4 0.200 3.51 335
334 St Ambrose 9 2 0.186 0.49 318
335 Mississippi Valley St 5 6 0.186 -0.84 306
336 Concordia-Moorhead 8 2 0.180 -4.25 283
337 Delta St 3 7 0.171 4.88 353
338 Nebraska-Kearney 3 8 0.158 4.72 354
339 Bethel MN 9 3 0.128 -6.83 273
340 Minot St 3 8 0.119 0.41 330
341 Wingate 6 5 0.118 2.02 343
342 Bryant 4 7 0.111 5.83 379
343 Central Oklahoma 2 8 0.101 3.16 361
344 Truman St 4 7 0.080 2.33 355
345 Morehead St 4 7 0.076 9.01 424
346 Morgan St 3 8 0.073 5.65 388
347 Columbia 3 7 0.069 5.98 392
348 Hobart 12 1 0.069 -4.67 305
349 Salisbury 9 3 0.063 -2.19 325
350 Bucknell 3 8 0.061 8.10 419
351 Prairie View A&M 3 8 0.057 -0.05 342
352 Southern U. 4 7 0.049 -0.34 341
353 Upper Iowa 2 9 0.044 3.20 376
354 Georgia St 1 10 0.034 5.78 405
355 Widener 11 1 0.026 -5.65 308
356 Louisiana College 8 3 0.024 -2.31 331
357 Walsh 3 8 0.012 6.30 418
358 Stonehill 5 5 0.006 -2.69 334
359 Central Conn St 2 8 -0.016 3.97 399
360 Pacific Lutheran 7 3 -0.021 -1.62 349
361 Urbana 7 4 -0.024 2.95 391
362 Wheaton 8 2 -0.035 2.21 386
363 West Liberty St 6 5 -0.035 -2.25 348
364 SE Oklahoma St 4 6 -0.048 2.67 395
365 West Georgia 3 7 -0.051 4.74 421
366 MidAmerica Nazarene 8 3 -0.056 0.70 380
367 Grand View 8 3 -0.067 -3.41 345
368 SW Baptist 3 8 -0.072 0.16 378
369 VMI 2 9 -0.076 -0.88 373
370 Willamette 8 2 -0.083 -4.03 344
371 Coe 10 1 -0.088 -3.42 352
372 Marist 4 7 -0.093 7.03 451
373 Elmhurst 10 2 -0.095 -7.61 322
374 Alcorn St 4 7 -0.102 -9.33 312
375 Augsburg 7 3 -0.117 -7.84 323
376 Johnson C. Smith 6 4 -0.132 -6.68 337
377 Sacred Heart 2 9 -0.140 6.94 460
378 Notre Dame OH 3 8 -0.141 -3.34 366
379 Lake Erie 3 8 -0.148 -2.83 375
380 Gannon 3 8 -0.149 -1.47 384
381 Idaho St 1 10 -0.156 -2.00 383
382 Shorter 6 5 -0.156 -4.01 365
383 Johns Hopkins 10 2 -0.166 -4.98 362
384 Hardin-Simmons 6 4 -0.166 -0.57 401
385 Arkansas Tech 5 6 -0.178 -4.39 367
386 Simon Fraser 5 6 -0.178 -1.89 390
387 Yale 2 8 -0.186 4.72 457
388 Tiffin 3 8 -0.197 -1.97 394
389 Newberry 5 6 -0.205 -1.18 410
390 Mesa St 4 7 -0.216 -5.25 372
391 Presbyterian 2 9 -0.222 -1.92 408
392 Chowan 6 4 -0.228 -4.57 381
393 Eastern New Mexico 3 7 -0.240 -6.10 370
394 Western New Mexico 4 7 -0.240 -2.96 400
395 Northwestern IA 9 3 -0.249 -2.31 414
396 Azusa Pacific 4 7 -0.255 -4.47 389
397 Cortland St 9 2 -0.288 -13.09 324
398 Clarion 4 7 -0.289 -7.78 368
399 Heidelberg 9 2 -0.291 -4.58 398
400 SW Oklahoma St 3 7 -0.315 -1.82 435
401 C.W. Post 3 7 -0.320 -3.68 420
402 Albany St GA 6 4 -0.320 -9.44 364
403 Rocky Mountain 6 5 -0.342 -2.02 442
404 Assumption 3 7 -0.379 -3.78 436
405 Minn St-Moorhead 1 10 -0.380 -4.13 430
406 Incarnate Word 2 9 -0.383 -3.60 439
407 William Penn 9 3 -0.383 -5.40 423
408 Shaw 4 6 -0.384 -6.56 411
409 Trinity TX 7 3 -0.403 -7.79 402
410 Bethel TN 9 4 -0.408 -7.95 403
411 Minnesota-Crookston 2 9 -0.408 -7.96 404
412 Black Hills St 4 7 -0.409 -7.12 416
413 St John Fisher 8 3 -0.409 -9.89 382
414 Cal Lutheran 8 2 -0.411 -4.46 438
415 Bowie St 5 5 -0.411 -7.36 412
416 Baker 8 3 -0.425 -8.26 406
417 Fairmont St 4 6 -0.426 -8.23 407
418 Langston 6 4 -0.429 -11.93 371
419 UW-Eau Claire 4 6 -0.431 -6.22 427
420 Rowan 7 3 -0.443 -9.52 396
421 St Olaf 7 3 -0.447 -14.54 351
422 UW-La Crosse 4 6 -0.455 -7.69 422
423 Virginia Union 5 5 -0.472 -4.93 448
424 Rhode Island 0 11 -0.477 -2.69 472
425 St John's MN 5 5 -0.479 -9.66 409
426 Stillman 6 5 -0.490 -11.92 385
427 Birmingham-Southern 7 3 -0.510 -7.30 441
428 North Greenville 5 6 -0.519 -12.68 387
429 Savannah St 1 10 -0.520 -9.38 425
430 TAMU-Commerce 1 9 -0.540 -5.28 462
431 Buffalo St 6 4 -0.548 -14.85 377
432 Montana-Western 4 6 -0.552 -7.27 450
433 St Joseph's IN 6 5 -0.557 -13.16 393
434 Catawba 4 7 -0.559 -5.31 470
435 Malone 1 9 -0.598 -7.04 464
436 St Francis IL 6 5 -0.601 -6.27 475
437 Belhaven 6 5 -0.605 -1.12 520
438 Otterbein 8 2 -0.607 -14.37 397
439 Bacone 6 4 -0.629 -11.80 431
440 Morehouse 3 7 -0.637 -5.54 490
441 WV Wesleyan 3 8 -0.641 -7.01 481
442 Utica 6 4 -0.647 -12.32 433
443 Eastern Oregon 4 6 -0.659 -9.52 458
444 Sul Ross St 5 5 -0.661 -10.72 449
445 Texas Southern 2 9 -0.671 -14.87 417
446 Southern Conn St 3 8 -0.677 -13.84 428
447 Colby 3 5 -0.680 -11.58 447
448 Virginia St 4 6 -0.683 -9.07 471
449 Ithaca 6 4 -0.686 -13.76 429
450 Alfred 6 4 -0.689 -12.90 440
451 Delaware Valley 8 3 -0.695 -14.42 426
452 Huntingdon AL 6 3 -0.701 -10.35 461
453 Doane 7 3 -0.703 -11.42 455
454 Washington and Lee 8 3 -0.718 -13.24 444
455 Dixie St 3 8 -0.719 -10.81 463
456 Central St OH 4 7 -0.721 -9.78 478
457 Franklin 9 3 -0.730 -13.56 445
458 Springfield 8 3 -0.744 -13.84 446
459 Wittenberg 10 2 -0.752 -13.27 452
460 Millersville 2 9 -0.752 -15.61 432
461 Lycoming 8 2 -0.754 -17.80 415
462 Grambling St 1 10 -0.771 -8.90 493
463 McKendree 3 7 -0.774 -9.05 492
464 Lincoln MO 1 10 -0.797 -11.39 486
465 Whitworth 7 3 -0.797 -16.60 437
466 Kentucky Christian 7 4 -0.826 -12.27 487
467 Millsaps 7 3 -0.831 -13.71 469
468 Baldwin-Wallace 7 3 -0.837 -14.63 459
469 Quincy 3 8 -0.839 -13.07 482
470 Muhlenberg 8 3 -0.840 -14.42 466
471 Concordia AL 4 4 -0.842 -15.59 456
472 Faulkner 6 5 -0.846 -6.93 533
473 Cumberland TN 8 3 -0.847 -14.09 473
474 Benedictine KS 7 4 -0.849 -10.68 499
475 Redlands 6 3 -0.852 -7.70 530
476 Montana St-Northern 3 7 -0.856 -6.47 538
477 Union NY 6 4 -0.868 -15.10 467
478 Fayetteville St 2 8 -0.870 -11.90 495
479 Lane 5 5 -0.871 -15.45 465
480 Endicott 9 2 -0.882 -14.09 485
481 Wabash 8 2 -0.893 -15.65 468
482 Lock Haven 1 10 -0.908 -15.13 483
483 Illinois Wesleyan 6 4 -0.918 -10.91 515
484 Millikin 5 5 -0.919 -9.30 532
485 Nebraska Wesleyan 6 4 -0.950 -16.85 477
486 Brockport St 6 4 -0.969 -17.31 480
487 NW Oklahoma St 3 7 -0.971 -19.84 454
488 John Carroll 6 4 -0.972 -14.35 501
489 Albright 8 3 -0.978 -21.57 443
490 Evangel 7 4 -0.987 -18.15 476
491 Davidson 2 9 -0.987 -10.28 539
492 Concordia IL 10 1 -0.997 -23.09 434
493 Gettysburg 7 3 -1.000 -15.61 498
494 Western St CO 1 10 -1.007 -15.15 503
495 Tusculum 2 9 -1.039 -11.10 544
496 Hamilton 1 7 -1.041 -13.33 531
497 Framingham St 10 2 -1.059 -16.44 507
498 Salve Regina 9 2 -1.065 -16.75 505
499 Bowdoin 1 7 -1.066 -10.61 554
500 Ottawa 8 3 -1.079 -17.80 500
501 Robert Morris IL 8 3 -1.081 -13.98 535
502 Wartburg 6 4 -1.087 -17.05 508
503 Adrian 9 2 -1.088 -23.54 453
504 UW-Stevens Point 2 8 -1.100 -11.90 549
505 Dubuque 5 5 -1.106 -16.82 514
506 Tabor 8 2 -1.106 -16.71 516
507 Franklin & Marshall 7 4 -1.119 -20.52 488
508 St Anselm 2 9 -1.126 -18.93 502
509 Kean 5 4 -1.135 -20.75 491
510 Valley City St 7 3 -1.145 -20.26 496
511 Waynesburg 10 1 -1.147 -22.86 479
512 Augustana IL 5 5 -1.154 -18.12 518
513 Southern Nazarene 1 9 -1.156 -12.97 558
514 Gustavus Adolphus 3 7 -1.166 -18.55 517
515 Thomas More 7 3 -1.170 -13.90 552
516 West Virginia St 2 9 -1.177 -20.29 504
517 UW-Stout 3 7 -1.178 -14.38 547
518 Bridgewater St MA 9 2 -1.188 -22.61 489
519 Trine 7 3 -1.197 -24.02 484
520 Hampden-Sydney 6 4 -1.236 -16.04 550
521 Arkansas-Monticello 0 10 -1.238 -12.79 576
522 Edward Waters 5 6 -1.249 -20.10 529
523 Randolph-Macon 7 3 -1.254 -22.46 506
524 Texas Lutheran 4 6 -1.257 -15.40 565
525 Brevard 2 9 -1.260 -15.32 567
526 Centre 6 4 -1.270 -21.25 525
527 Central IA 5 5 -1.271 -22.24 511
528 Ohio Wesleyan 9 1 -1.277 -27.23 474
529 Rhodes 6 3 -1.298 -25.17 494
530 Ursinus 6 4 -1.301 -22.28 524
531 Clark Atlanta 2 8 -1.302 -20.58 537
532 Menlo 3 6 -1.304 -12.52 596
533 Wash & Jeff 8 3 -1.316 -23.12 521
534 Simpson 6 4 -1.325 -23.06 522
535 RPI 5 4 -1.329 -21.58 536
536 Concordia NE 5 6 -1.340 -18.37 563
537 Hastings 6 4 -1.340 -23.88 519
538 Valparaiso 1 10 -1.347 -18.69 562
539 Dakota Wesleyan 6 4 -1.359 -25.01 510
540 UW-River Falls 2 8 -1.359 -19.51 556
541 Taylor 4 6 -1.367 -20.24 548
542 Cheyney 1 10 -1.370 -25.40 509
543 Siena Heights 4 6 -1.385 -22.03 542
544 East Texas Baptist 3 7 -1.386 -19.24 566
545 Tufts 0 8 -1.391 -16.08 591
546 Susquehanna 6 4 -1.422 -26.88 512
547 William Jewell 2 9 -1.432 -21.57 557
548 Pacific OR 3 6 -1.438 -20.78 570
549 Bridgewater VA 7 3 -1.465 -22.82 555
550 Virginia U-Lynchburg 1 8 -1.471 -19.61 583
551 Fort Lewis 0 10 -1.474 -23.35 551
552 Concordia WI 7 3 -1.488 -28.09 523
553 Lebanon Valley 6 4 -1.502 -27.94 528
554 Campbell 1 10 -1.503 -19.83 589
555 Chapman 6 3 -1.517 -21.07 582
556 Trinity Int'l 4 7 -1.521 -17.93 606
557 Emory & Henry 6 4 -1.527 -26.71 540
558 Ferrum 7 3 -1.539 -26.12 546
559 Albion 6 4 -1.554 -23.90 572
560 Buena Vista 4 6 -1.560 -31.06 513
561 Seton Hill 0 11 -1.560 -19.23 605
562 OK Panhandle St 3 6 -1.564 -22.57 581
563 Washington U. 5 5 -1.567 -27.44 543
564 Olivet Nazarene 3 8 -1.573 -24.07 574
565 Carroll WI 8 2 -1.577 -24.65 571
566 Maryville 6 4 -1.590 -26.89 553
567 Montclair St 5 5 -1.593 -29.86 534
568 Lake Forest 8 2 -1.619 -31.80 526
569 Benedict 1 9 -1.630 -20.57 613
570 Rochester 4 5 -1.633 -24.81 579
571 Dickinson St 2 9 -1.646 -22.86 598
572 Kentucky St 2 8 -1.647 -26.37 573
573 Ohio Northern 4 6 -1.656 -23.44 594
574 Livingstone 2 8 -1.671 -28.02 568
575 St Mary KS 6 5 -1.683 -25.40 588
576 St Scholastica 8 3 -1.684 -33.60 527
577 Norwich 7 3 -1.687 -26.58 577
578 St Norbert 8 3 -1.695 -31.64 541
579 Lindsey Wilson 3 8 -1.702 -18.41 639
580 Christopher Newport 6 5 -1.714 -30.22 559
581 Midland Lutheran 4 6 -1.726 -25.60 595
582 Illinois College 8 2 -1.756 -28.66 578
583 Mount Ida 8 3 -1.760 -31.50 561
584 Carnegie Mellon 6 5 -1.761 -26.87 593
585 Wisconsin Lutheran 7 3 -1.765 -28.85 580
586 Gallaudet 7 3 -1.777 -28.38 587
587 South Dakota Tech 2 9 -1.778 -27.86 592
588 Sewanee 3 7 -1.802 -24.63 622
589 Muskingum 3 7 -1.810 -25.28 619
590 Webber Int'l 4 6 -1.815 -26.15 614
591 Hope 5 5 -1.816 -29.40 590
592 Jamestown 4 6 -1.818 -26.47 612
593 Carleton 3 7 -1.822 -33.05 564
594 Northwestern MN 8 3 -1.831 -35.31 545
595 Case Western Reserve 6 4 -1.838 -28.89 597
596 Pace 0 9 -1.850 -34.35 560
597 Graceland 5 6 -1.860 -33.88 569
598 Campbellsville 3 8 -1.871 -24.27 634
599 Texas College 2 9 -1.873 -29.16 603
600 Friends 6 5 -1.876 -27.72 617
601 Greenville 8 2 -1.876 -42.74 497
602 Western New England 6 4 -1.882 -26.12 626
603 Kentucky Wesleyan 2 9 -1.888 -28.19 616
604 Union KY 4 7 -1.890 -27.44 621
605 Mississippi College 2 8 -1.897 -29.92 602
606 Macalester 6 4 -1.921 -29.40 615
607 New Jersey 4 6 -1.925 -31.06 600
608 Peru St 5 6 -1.946 -30.98 608
609 Grove City 6 4 -1.961 -27.78 630
610 Merchant Marine 5 5 -1.967 -35.82 575
611 Lewis & Clark 4 5 -1.972 -31.78 607
612 Lincoln PA 1 9 -1.985 -32.18 609
613 Virginia-Wise 3 8 -1.994 -28.82 629
614 Pikeville 3 8 -2.005 -25.65 645
615 Methodist 5 5 -2.012 -33.51 601
616 Castleton St 7 4 -2.024 -36.20 586
617 Carthage 3 7 -2.027 -30.89 624
618 Kansas Wesleyan 6 5 -2.047 -32.67 618
619 Frostburg St 3 7 -2.057 -35.24 599
620 Dickinson 4 6 -2.065 -37.52 585
621 Hanover 6 4 -2.066 -32.91 620
622 Southern Virginia 4 6 -2.069 -31.51 628
623 Guilford 5 5 -2.104 -35.67 610
624 Manchester 6 4 -2.114 -35.96 611
625 William Paterson 5 5 -2.122 -36.79 604
626 McPherson 4 5 -2.122 -29.12 647
627 Hartwick 3 7 -2.182 -32.18 643
628 Whittier 4 5 -2.186 -28.96 660
629 Iowa Wesleyan 3 8 -2.190 -33.54 638
630 Central Methodist 2 8 -2.199 -28.55 663
631 Aurora 5 5 -2.199 -33.68 640
632 Wilkes 5 5 -2.201 -41.88 584
633 Benedictine IL 5 5 -2.217 -35.02 633
634 Curry 6 4 -2.246 -35.48 637
635 Coast Guard 5 4 -2.258 -34.83 642
636 La Verne 4 5 -2.263 -33.91 644
637 Juniata 3 7 -2.285 -34.13 648
638 Kalamazoo 5 5 -2.293 -39.20 623
639 SW Assem of God 4 6 -2.318 -35.19 646
640 Mass Maritime 5 4 -2.328 -32.48 666
641 Point U. 2 8 -2.344 -33.54 661
642 Waldorf 4 7 -2.352 -35.14 654
643 Geneva 3 7 -2.366 -30.05 678
644 Lindenwood-Belleville 4 6 -2.379 -35.88 657
645 Bethany WV 3 7 -2.382 -29.20 685
646 Kenyon 6 4 -2.387 -40.39 632
647 Capital 2 8 -2.395 -36.49 653
648 Monmouth IL 5 5 -2.401 -35.91 659
649 Denison 4 6 -2.401 -36.80 652
650 Chicago 4 6 -2.405 -37.32 651
651 Oberlin 4 6 -2.416 -35.49 662
652 Allegheny 5 5 -2.438 -41.49 636
653 Avila 2 9 -2.442 -32.89 675
654 Bluffton 6 4 -2.444 -43.66 625
655 Worcester St 6 4 -2.449 -38.88 650
656 Austin 2 8 -2.449 -35.42 670
657 LaGrange 3 7 -2.459 -38.23 658
658 Hamline 1 9 -2.502 -45.15 627
659 Greensboro 5 5 -2.517 -43.98 635
660 Catholic 3 7 -2.531 -36.38 672
661 MIT 5 4 -2.533 -41.65 649
662 Ripon 5 5 -2.536 -40.82 655
663 Rose-Hulman 4 5 -2.569 -41.81 656
664 Wayland Baptist 2 7 -2.593 -45.60 641
665 Moravian 2 8 -2.609 -40.89 667
666 Sterling 3 7 -2.615 -37.62 680
667 Luther 0 10 -2.616 -35.82 687
668 Thiel 3 7 -2.619 -33.41 700
669 Ave Maria 1 7 -2.637 -37.32 684
670 North Carolina Wesleyan 3 7 -2.640 -41.62 669
671 Howard Payne 1 9 -2.653 -42.60 664
672 DePauw 2 8 -2.693 -40.24 677
673 WPI 2 8 -2.701 -41.52 673
674 Cornell IA 4 6 -2.706 -39.87 683
675 Westminster PA 3 6 -2.713 -32.67 707
676 Stevenson 2 8 -2.718 -41.04 676
677 Briar Cliff 1 10 -2.726 -39.01 688
678 Minnesota-Morris 6 4 -2.742 -51.57 631
679 Southwestern KS 4 7 -2.778 -42.55 681
680 Dakota St 2 9 -2.782 -41.21 686
681 King's PA 2 8 -2.807 -45.30 671
682 North Park 1 9 -2.810 -40.82 695
683 St Lawrence 0 10 -2.816 -38.91 701
684 Western Conn St 1 8 -2.834 -48.14 665
685 Loras 2 8 -2.840 -47.84 668
686 Shenandoah 1 9 -2.843 -36.97 706
687 Concordia MI 0 9 -2.851 -46.05 674
688 Culver-Stockton 1 10 -2.852 -45.07 679
689 Dordt 1 10 -2.891 -43.57 693
690 Mayville St 3 6 -2.895 -42.57 698
691 Mt St Joseph 4 6 -2.902 -43.95 692
692 Alma 1 9 -2.938 -45.52 689
693 Westfield St 3 7 -2.944 -39.12 709
694 SUNY-Maritime 3 6 -2.966 -42.52 702
695 Wooster 2 8 -3.057 -40.72 716
696 Morrisville St 1 9 -3.062 -49.21 691
697 Averett 1 9 -3.085 -42.57 714
698 Puget Sound 0 9 -3.086 -48.11 699
699 Bethany KS 3 8 -3.095 -45.71 703
700 Occidental 2 7 -3.102 -45.38 705
701 Marietta 0 10 -3.106 -45.60 704
702 Bluefield 0 11 -3.131 -44.44 711
703 FDU-Florham 2 8 -3.137 -51.66 690
704 Pomona-Pitzer 1 8 -3.165 -40.83 726
705 Eureka 4 6 -3.169 -54.29 682
706 McDaniel 0 10 -3.193 -45.77 715
707 Wilmington 1 9 -3.196 -52.79 694
708 Apprentice 0 8 -3.217 -45.19 718
709 Westminster MO 4 6 -3.248 -53.94 696
710 Martin Luther 4 6 -3.291 -55.03 697
711 Lakeland 2 8 -3.307 -49.82 712
712 Grinnell 2 8 -3.341 -47.41 722
713 UMass-Dartmouth 1 9 -3.357 -49.18 719
714 Defiance 2 8 -3.362 -50.11 717
715 Plymouth St 2 8 -3.395 -49.11 721
716 Becker 3 7 -3.422 -53.02 713
717 Fitchburg St 2 8 -3.478 -51.24 724
718 Knox 2 8 -3.514 -52.54 723
719 Claremont-Mudd-Scripps 0 9 -3.575 -47.13 736
720 Nichols 1 9 -3.606 -51.89 730
721 St Vincent 0 10 -3.636 -45.54 738
722 Olivet 0 10 -3.640 -51.70 732
723 Lawrence 2 8 -3.673 -55.42 729
724 MacMurray 2 8 -3.695 -62.01 710
725 Husson 2 8 -3.801 -60.89 725
726 Rockford 2 8 -3.871 -61.70 728
727 Crown 2 8 -3.880 -64.10 720
728 Misericordia 0 10 -3.899 -69.25 708
729 Anna Maria 2 8 -3.930 -60.11 733
730 Presentation 2 8 -3.932 -61.63 731
731 Haskell 1 8 -4.074 -68.23 727
732 Hiram 0 10 -4.101 -61.73 737
733 Earlham 1 8 -4.138 -66.13 734
734 Bethel KS 0 10 -4.233 -68.71 735
735 Beloit 0 10 -4.307 -62.37 742
736 Maine Maritime 0 9 -4.374 -63.27 743
737 Anderson 0 10 -4.379 -68.16 739
738 Trinity Bible 1 7 -4.533 -71.87 740
739 Maranatha Baptist 0 10 -4.595 -73.00 741
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Introduction Here is my rough attempt at a CF computer rating. It is a combination of a score-based rating and a more politically correct one like the six that are part of the BCS. To estimate the point spread between two teams, subtract their numbers in the Points ("Pts") column. Don't forget home field advantage, which is usually around 2.5 to 3 points. It fluctuates a little, but I don't bother publishing the actual number: in 2011, at the end of week 6 it was 2.7. Predictions are now available on their own separate page. Last season's games have a strong but diminishing influence for the first few weeks. More recent games are always weighted heavier. This is a work in progress, and I reserve the right to change the algorithm at any time, without telling you (errors, tweaks, whatever). The ratings are one of many included on Dr. Kenneth Massey's comparison page for college football. Enjoy! Email me if you have a question. The components The rating is a blend of two different and unique formulas. Rating 1: An "almost" "pure points" system. Only margins of victory are included (this result is actually shown in the "Pts" column), but a diminishing returns rule is applied when scores are above 40 points. Over 40, the excess is halved, i.e., 42 becomes 41, 50 is 45, 70 is 55, etc. This is done without regard to margin of victory. I know I could have (and should have) been a bit more elegant, but it works. Rating 2: A system that considers only winning and losing, with games weighted based on how recently they were played. The weight is simple: it is the number of days since the game was played, divided by 365. So a game played four months ago is weighted only 0.67 compared to "today's" games (weight 1.00), for games eight months ago the weight is 0.33, and obviously for games one year ago the weight becomes 0. For college football, I phase out games from the previous season by about mid-October. This rating should correlate highly with all the other BCS-style ratings, since there is no margin of victory. For each, I then normalize the entire list (so that the mean is zero and the standard deviation is one), and simply add the two normalized ratings together to get the value in the "Rating" column. In other words, Rating = normalized_rating1 + normalized_rating2. It's that simple. That's why the ratings are bounded in roughly a range of +5 to -5...it will be rare to have a team with either rating more than about 2.5 SD's beyond the mean, let alone both of them. Some math details Each set of ratings can be cast as an overdetermined matrix problem (thousands of games, for only hundreds of teams), which is popularly solved either via SVD or with an iterative technique. SVD for college basketball requires a few gigabytes of RAM, which I didn't have at home when I started this project, so I went with the iterative methods. They are often slower, but will produce the same result. Right now I use a Matlab routine called LSMR, written by David Fong and Michael Saunders of Stanford University. Prior to using their algorithm, I used ugly, clunky, slow programs that I wrote myself; they resembled the predictor-corrector methods from your numerical analysis courses. I normalize both results because there is essentially no other way to compare or combine the two ratings. Neither rating is given more preference than the other. There's probably a better way to get the end result than just adding the two normalized ratings together, but again, it seems to work. I'm always learning, always willing to hear new ideas, and always trying to improve the results. About the author I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. That's the same place where Dr. Wes Colley now works (he produces one of the six BCS rankings), but I only met him once. I am a faculty member at Indiana University, with research in the areas of thunderstorms and numerical weather prediction (forecasting using computers). Contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments. |