Talisman Red's NHL Computer Ratings
Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.
The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 0.25 to 0.5 goals.
All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Shootouts and overtimes make this tricky, and are a lot of why the average error is 1.5 goals or so.
Reminder: games that go to a shootout will be recorded as ties. This will, hopefully, improve the accuracy of the predictions.
Ratings last updated Thursday 05/02/24 11:16 AM ET Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 1 Carolina 54 25 8 2.79 50.72 1 2 NY Rangers 56 24 7 2.56 50.61 2 3 Edmonton 51 33 3 2.50 50.86 4 4 Florida 53 29 5 2.42 50.70 3 5 Dallas 51 30 6 2.10 50.64 5 6 Colorado 52 31 6 2.06 50.68 7 7 Boston 46 34 8 1.81 50.77 9 8 Vancouver 53 32 4 1.60 50.40 8 9 Winnipeg 53 33 3 1.47 50.31 6 10 Las Vegas 43 38 6 1.33 50.63 13 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 11 Toronto 43 37 8 1.13 50.45 12 12 Los Angeles 43 37 7 1.08 50.49 14 13 Tampa Bay 43 40 4 0.72 50.17 11 14 Nashville 46 38 5 0.54 50.06 10 15 New Jersey 38 42 2 0.28 50.17 16 16 Minnesota 36 40 6 -0.00 49.98 15 17 Calgary 38 40 4 -0.15 49.96 19 18 Detroit 38 40 4 -0.19 49.90 17 19 NY Islanders 38 43 6 -0.25 49.97 20 20 St Louis 38 37 7 -0.39 49.78 18 Rank Team W L T Rating Points BCS 21 Pittsburgh 36 41 5 -0.51 49.92 23 22 Seattle 31 44 7 -0.55 50.00 26 23 Buffalo 37 42 3 -0.58 49.78 21 24 Ottawa 32 45 5 -0.71 49.87 25 25 Washington 36 41 10 -1.10 49.46 22 26 Philadelphia 34 41 7 -1.26 49.49 24 27 Arizona 34 46 2 -1.34 49.64 27 28 Montreal 26 44 12 -1.89 49.48 28 29 Columbus 24 53 5 -2.96 49.13 29 30 Anaheim 26 53 3 -3.49 48.84 30 31 Chicago 22 58 2 -4.09 48.75 31 32 San Jose 18 58 6 -4.94 48.43 32
Divisional rankings: Rank Conference Mean Rating ---- ------------------------- ----------- 1 East 0.34 2 Central 0.04 3 North -0.06 4 West -0.33PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES Date Away Team Home Team Total Prediction ----------- -------------------- -------------------- ----- -------------- 02-May-2024 Toronto Boston 5.6 HOME by 0.59 02-May-2024 NY Islanders Carolina 5.6 HOME by 1.03 02-May-2024 Colorado Winnipeg 6.5 AWAY by -0.10 03-May-2024 Carolina NY Islanders 5.7 AWAY by -0.49 03-May-2024 Winnipeg Colorado 5.5 HOME by 0.64 03-May-2024 Boston Toronto 6.5 AWAY by -0.05 03-May-2024 Vancouver Nashville 5.8 AWAY by -0.07 03-May-2024 Dallas Las Vegas 6.4 HOME by 0.25 03-May-2024 Los Angeles Edmonton 6.5 HOME by 0.63 03-May-2024 Florida Tampa Bay 6.6 AWAY by -0.26 04-May-2024 Boston Toronto 6.5 AWAY by -0.05 05-May-2024 NY Rangers Carolina 5.3 HOME by 0.38Current home field advantage is: 0.27 MAE for games to date: 2.07 These ratings fit to produce 0.59 of the correct winners. Pct when predicted MOV is above 0.54: 0.65 A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -0.74. A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 0.95.
About the author
I have a Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Alabama in Huntsville. I am now a faculty member at Indiana University in Bloomington, teaching courses in the broad areas of weather and climate. Don't hesitate to contact me using this email form if you have questions or non-hateful comments.
