Talisman Red's NFL Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

Predictions for upcoming games are given below. To determine a hypothetical margin for any two teams, use the Points column (just subtract) and add in home field advantage (also given below).

The Rating describes team performance based on games played to date. The BCS column describes a rating like the old college football system that only accounted for wins, losses, and strength of schedule. It's pretty meaningless in the NFL, but still a part of my output since I use this code in lots of places.

I wouldn't rely too much on early-season results, which are based almost entirely on last year's games. Wait until 3-4 weeks into the season, at least.

Ratings last updated Monday 02/12/24 08:10 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Baltimore             14  5     3.81    60.31    1
   2 San Francisco         15  5     3.36    58.84    3
   3 Kansas City           15  6     3.22    57.45    2
   4 Buffalo               12  7     2.18    56.37    6
   5 Dallas                12  6     1.80    56.42   10
   6 Detroit               14  6     1.67    53.10    4
   7 Jacksonville           9  8     1.53    53.86    8
   8 Pittsburgh            10  8     1.40    51.98    5
   9 Cleveland             11  7     0.97    50.82    7
  10 Miami                 11  7     0.90    53.25   14

Rank Team                   W  L   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Houston               11  8     0.88    51.15    9
  12 Green Bay             10  9     0.80    52.83   15
  13 Tampa Bay             10  9     0.37    51.61   17
  14 Cincinnati             9  8     0.32    49.56   11
  15 Indianapolis           9  8     0.31    49.93   12
  16 New Orleans            9  8     0.18    52.15   21
  17 Las Vegas              8  9     0.16    51.10   18
  18 Seattle                9  8     0.04    48.64   13
  19 Philadelphia          11  7    -0.15    48.22   16
  20 Denver                 8  9    -0.18    49.97   20

Rank Team                   W  L   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 LA Rams                9  9    -0.60    47.36   19
  22 LA Chargers            5 12    -0.81    50.61   26
  23 Chicago                7 10    -0.95    48.60   24
  24 Tennessee              6 11    -1.05    48.09   23
  25 Minnesota              7 10    -1.31    48.27   27
  26 NY Jets                7 10    -1.37    46.20   22
  27 Atlanta                7 10    -1.74    45.73   25
  28 Arizona                4 13    -2.38    43.05   28
  29 NY Giants              6 11    -2.73    41.50   29
  30 New England            4 13    -2.83    43.22   31
  31 Washington             4 13    -3.11    40.51   30
  32 Carolina               2 15    -4.67    39.30   32

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 AFC North                      1.62
   2 AFC West                       0.60
   3 AFC South                      0.42
   4 NFC West                       0.10
   5 NFC North                      0.05
   6 AFC East                      -0.28
   7 NFC East                      -1.05
   8 NFC South                     -1.47

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------

Current home field advantage is:  1.91

MAE for games to date:  9.82

These ratings fit to produce 0.65 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 3.82:  0.73

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -6.21.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 7.12.