Talisman Red's NBA Computer Ratings

Welcome! This is my rough attempt at a computer rating that can, among other things, come somewhat close to predicting final game scores.

The actual computer rating, which describes team performance based on games played to date, is found under the "Rating" column. To determine a hypothetical margin of victory, use the "Points" column (just subtract the teams in question) and add the home advantage, which is shown below and is usually about 2-3 points for basketball.

All of the game predictions listed already have the home advantage added in, and also show a predicted total. Overtimes make this tricky, and are why overtime games are recorded as "ties" because these often cause point totals to skew too high. About 1 in every 20-ish games goes to overtime, which doesn't sound like much but is enough to make a difference over an entire season of games.

Ratings last updated Thursday 05/02/24 11:10 AM ET

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
   1 Boston                66 15  6     3.52    58.83    1
   2 Denver                61 25  1     2.63    55.68    3
   3 Minnesota             59 22  5     2.62    55.11    2
   4 Oklahoma City         58 24  4     2.51    55.55    4
   5 New York              53 32  3     1.44    53.66    9
   6 Golden State          46 32  5     1.35    52.87    7
   7 LA Clippers           53 33  1     1.25    52.07    5
   8 New Orleans           50 36  1     1.17    52.35    8
   9 Philadelphia          48 36  4     1.08    53.54   15
  10 Phoenix               46 37  3     1.03    52.13   10

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  11 Milwaukee             49 32  5     0.90    52.64   14
  12 Dallas                52 35  1     0.86    50.67    6
  13 Cleveland             48 35  4     0.83    52.46   16
  14 Sacramento            42 36  6     0.77    52.22   17
  15 LA Lakers             45 38  5     0.67    51.31   13
  16 Miami                 46 41  2     0.49    51.47   19
  17 Orlando               47 37  3     0.47    50.90   18
  18 Indiana               48 37  2     0.42    49.82   11
  19 Houston               39 36  7    -0.02    48.23   12
  20 Chicago               33 40 11    -0.59    49.30   20

Rank Team                   W  L OT   Rating   Points  BCS
  21 Atlanta               32 46  6    -0.70    49.15   21
  22 Brooklyn              31 46  5    -1.03    48.03   22
  23 Utah                  29 49  4    -1.48    46.45   23
  24 Memphis               26 52  4    -1.52    47.22   24
  25 Toronto               24 54  4    -1.88    47.14   26
  26 San Antonio           19 58  5    -2.71    42.86   25
  27 Washington            15 65  2    -3.36    43.68   30
  28 Portland              16 58  8    -3.36    42.02   28
  29 Charlotte             20 60  2    -3.43    41.55   27
  30 Detroit               13 67  3    -3.93    41.09   29

Divisional rankings:

Rank Conference                Mean Rating
---- ------------------------- -----------
   1 Pacific                        1.01
   2 Atlantic                       0.62
   3 Northwest                      0.58
   4 Southeast                     -0.44
   5 Central                       -0.47
   6 Southeast                     -1.31

                         PREDICTIONS FOR UPCOMING GAMES

   Date      Away Team             Home Team             Total    Prediction
-----------  --------------------  --------------------  -----  --------------
02-May-2024  New York              Philadelphia           222   HOME by   2.08
02-May-2024  Milwaukee             Indiana                247   AWAY by  -0.61

03-May-2024  Cleveland             Orlando                212   HOME by   0.65
03-May-2024  LA Clippers           Dallas                 232   HOME by   0.80

04-May-2024  Minnesota             Denver                 223   HOME by   2.78

Current home field advantage is:  2.20

MAE for games to date:  10.51

These ratings fit to produce 0.63 of the correct winners.
Pct when predicted MOV is above 4.41:  0.73

A favored away team rarely loses when favored by more than -5.25.

A favored home team rarely loses when favored by more than 5.87.